Thai Economic Outlook Among Asia’s Weakest, With Worse to Come

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana

 

-- Thailand’s economic outlook weakest in Asia after Japan

-- Curbs on daily life mulled after recent spike in virus cases

 

Thailand has second-highest odds of contraction among Asian nations

 

Thailand is preparing to restrict some aspects of daily life after the country’s biggest spike in coronavirus cases, further damaging one of Asia’s weakest economic outlooks.

 

The steps to be considered Monday include placing more curbs on foreign arrivals, canceling events with big crowds and closing entertainment venues deemed risky for spreading the virus. Confirmed cases jumped by 32 on Sunday to 114, sparking fears of a bigger outbreak and some panic buying of groceries.

 

The Thai economy was already reeling from a collapse in the critical tourism sector amid lock-downs worldwide to slow the transmission of the disease known as Covid-19. A drought and delayed public spending are additional blows, leaving Thailand with the highest odds of recession among Asian nations -- at 30% -- after Japan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Full story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/thai-economic-outlook-among-asia-s-weakest-with-worse-to-come

 

-- Bloomberg 2020-03-16

Maybe a ray of sunshine for expats with regard to exchange rate but a heap of gloom for the average Thai.

Edited March 16, 20206 yr by PJPom
Extra

AUD 19.65 doesn't appear to be affecting the THB as much as the Aussie. 

42 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

AUD 19.65 doesn't appear to be affecting the THB as much as the Aussie. 

Yeah, all the doom and gloom over the last year still has made a difference to the exchange rate, GBP 39.57 ????.

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The Thai economy was already reeling from a collapse in the critical tourism

20% of GDP?  Maybe not, sounds a bit higher.   The junta curtailed it, now the country is suffering from that.  Those dirty farangs bring money for everyone, unlike the army and the Thai elites that just takes more than they give.   Is there a Thai expression for:  make hay while the sun is shining ? 

2 hours ago, PJPom said:

Maybe a ray of sunshine for expats with regard to exchange rate but a heap of gloom for the average Thai.

Not really, the pound dropped (doing what it does best) The Euro dropped slightly against what it was 3 days ago, the Dollar has proven resilient despite the interest drop, so all in all not much difference.

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The Thai economy was already reeling from a collapse in the critical tourism sector amid lock-downs worldwide to slow the transmission of the disease known as Covid-19. A drought and delayed public spending are additional blows, leaving Thailand with the highest odds of recession among Asian nations -- at 30%

Yet the baht seems to be holding up under all this pressure!

Thailand has the weakest economic outlook—and the strongest bond with Communist China.

Could we have a correlation?

Somebody just scrubbed through the teflon. Took a long time.

7 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

AUD 19.65 doesn't appear to be affecting the THB as much as the Aussie. 

Don't know why your comments got 3 sad emotes. Thai is a manipulated currency. They try tie to USD. Of course has ups and downs. When aud is nose dive to USD (currently) guess what....same graph to baht. 

9 hours ago, BLACKJACK2 said:

Yeah, all the doom and gloom over the last year still has made a difference to the exchange rate, GBP 39.57 ????.

 

8 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Not really, the pound dropped (doing what it does best) The Euro dropped slightly against what it was 3 days ago, the Dollar has proven resilient despite the interest drop, so all in all not much difference.

Didn't a Minister say at the beginning of this Month that the Thai economy is resilient and the Country will not fall into a recession and projected a 2.5% growth for 2020, 

Yes, the Baht is still strong against other currency, as they become weaker, however if Thailand falls into recession the Baht will weaken as a fast rate. 

10 hours ago, Bluetongue said:

AUD 19.65 doesn't appear to be affecting the THB as much as the Aussie. 

The past week has been great for buying AUD! ????

First they were dying from pin pricks, and then came the blade

All countries are into recession . Why THB is not dropping is clear imho . It was dropping as long as China was the only 1 hit . Chinese do bring some money to Thai economy . Now you see something else , Europe and US economy are now heavily hit . Sure Thailand is been hit a lot harder then only the Chinese thing , but Europe and US are being hit soo much that the nrs are unspeakable . I guess nobody failed to see the amount the ECB or US Fed did put into the market . They are printing cash in overdrive , making the money less worth . How this will end , well i can give soft scenarios , which i hope , but i think loads of companies are going belly up . So im not sure at all THB is gonna lose a lot to US$ or euro . In the long run , maybe its a different story , since i think US or Euro economy gonna crawl up faster then Thai economy .

13 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thailand has the weakest economic outlook—and the strongest bond with Communist China.

Could we have a correlation?

Yes, but China is not communistic.  The are more fascist now.  They have cut throat capitalism where Thailand has crony capitalism which caters to a few wealthy, poorly educated, inbred families that think they know how to deal with China.   They don't.  There is your correlation.    

 

The average Chinese person can be surprisingly rational, open and non xenophobic.   That is why Thailand does not stand a chance and Vietnam does.

On 3/16/2020 at 9:46 PM, DrTuner said:

Somebody just scrubbed through the teflon. Took a long time.

It's only a scratch.

Pound and Euro just went down again

3 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Pound and Euro just went down again

Some predict the worst world economic crisis since the 1930s.

The already weak Euro countries like Italy and Spain hit badly.

More billions or trillions will be needed to keep this freaky Euro afloat.

So what can I expect?

 

Edited March 18, 20206 yr by KhunBENQ

13 hours ago, soalbundy said:

It's only a scratch.

Thailand has been pretty resilient. China has done well with their Peoples Republic. Thailand has gone hook line and sinker with the Chinese model. So, I am curious how Thailand will fair.

 

Will China continue to gobble up Thailand? My guess is in the next few years Thailand will be basically, a Chinese run country. Of course it is now, but in a few years it will be just a stepping stone for China for further conquests. 

 

Interesting to watch, glad I am not there anymore. Cannot imagine anyone from the west wanting to go through the changes being implemented.  

Edited March 18, 20206 yr by garyk

13 hours ago, soalbundy said:

It's only a scratch.