German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course

[Logosone]

30 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

This is a grim international problem and needs a determined co-operative international adult response. Sadly many international leaders are incapable of doing the adult bit.

 

A Data Scientist relation of mine says that modelling this thing is very simple, and although the detail is way beyond me, the gist is as follows.

population of Europe say 500M

proportion infected to reach herd immunity, or point where vaccination effects infection limitation.

say 60%. 

Proportion of deaths per infection say 1%

Number dead in Europe 3M. (Mainly older people).

 

Well maybe they will call it the boomers comeuppance. No longer will the young have to work all their lives to pay for the inflated pensions that we have awarded ourselves. 

The governments did too little too late. When the writing was on the wall for a long time.

 

They close borders when they already have the virus, experts like Piot say there is no point to that whatsoever.

 

As for the UK's modelling the worst case death rate would be a little less than 1%. Possibly as low as 0.3%. Still a large number of deaths.

 

However, this modelling assumes steady case and infection, presumably since we haven't seen the full data. But even the UK medical advisors have conceded that Covid19 could be seasonal.

 

Also looks like cures are on the way, that's obviously not been factored in the figures.

[Logosone]

31 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sooooo, lets say for the debate that every western government had closed their borders, destroyed the economies even sooner than is happening now, and it turned out to be not as bad as it has. What would citizens be saying about their governments now? I'm sure it wouldn't be complimentary.

Sometimes in a democracy it's just a best guess as to the correct option. I don't blame the government for not acting sooner. It's life and in life <deleted> happens.

 

In this case, sadly the democratic malaise of inaction, which was best exemplified by Angela Merkel's usual 'do as the wind blows only when the majority would agree' has proved fatal.

 

For all of China's mistakes, and locking down Wuhan after 50% of the population has left, their dictatorial harder approach appears to have fared better than those of the democracies.

 

But of course you're right in that if it had turned out to be nothing they'd have had egg on their face. Still, the writing was on the wall for a long time with Wuhan, the governments should have acted much sooner in a more decisive manner.

 

I don't accept the '<deleted> happens', 'we've never seen this before', these are all cop outs. Leaders need to lead. Our leaders have not done so. 

[Logosone]

The latest on the mortality rate is that it is 0.1%.

 

In line with previous flue epidemics.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8122983/This-test-suspected-patients-coronavirus.html

 

[Monomial]

6 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

quite possibly a day of reckoning for every human on the planet

 

and possibly more than once as it still hasn't been scientifically confirmed that surviving the virus provides full immunity and for how long (though most likely it does)

 

 

Tell that to the guy in Japan who just caught it for the second time. I understand why you hedged and that this is speculative, but it is still alarming.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1256040/coronavirus-reinfection-news-recover-patients-second-time-china-japan-south-korea

 

In China’s Guangdong province, health officials said 14 percent of people who recovered in the province who were later retested were positive.

 

Similar cases have been reported in Japan and South Korea.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Monomial

[cmarshall]

53 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

A Data Scientist relation of mine says that modelling this thing is very simple, and although the detail is way beyond me, the gist is as follows.

population of Europe say 500M

proportion infected to reach herd immunity, or point where vaccination effects infection limitation.

say 60%. 

Proportion of deaths per infection say 1%

Number dead in Europe 3M. (Mainly older people).

Case fatality rate in Wuhan and Lombardy was more like 6%.  WHO says overall rate in China was 3.4%  

[cmarshall]

6 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The latest on the mortality rate is that it is 0.1%.

 

In line with previous flue epidemics.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8122983/This-test-suspected-patients-coronavirus.html

 

If you believe the Daily Mail.  No one else pegs it that low.  Certainly Britain has tested very few people and so cannot estimate the cfr.

[Logosone]

That's a nonsense obviously, which only looks at identified cases.

 

Real case numbers would have been far higher, so death rate much lower.

[Isaanbiker]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

We all owe the Chinese a lot.  After the initial slow response in Wuhan, they vigorously addressed the epidemic at a national level and successfully slowed it's spread to the rest of the world.  In addition to the direct effect they demonstrated effective measures to control transmission.  The governments of Italy, the US, the UK, Spain, and other countries could have benefited from the two month lead time, but they dropped the ball.

 

South Korea, by contrast, obtained genetic material on corona in Dec. from China and initiated a program to develop test kits for use on a national scale.  They tested, isolated positives, and tracked contacts reaching a new case rate that is currently very low.  That's competent government by contrast to the countries listed above.  

After the initial slow response in Wuhan, they vigorously addressed the epidemic at a national level and successfully slowed it's spread to the rest of the world.  In addition to the direct effect they demonstrated effective measures to control transmission.

 

 

You've got to be kidding!

 

Did you not see the poor Chinese guys who reported on social media such as Youtube on how the government kept quiet about the disease?

 

  Without these bat eating people, there wouldn't be a pandemic that scares the shi_e out of people all around the world.

 

  Anybody who's telling the opposite must be mentally retarded. 

It's China's fault that the other nations were informed way too late with not exact facts. 

[cmarshall]

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's a nonsense obviously, which only looks at identified cases.

 

Real case numbers would have been far higher, so death rate much lower.

But are the identified cases complete?  I just heard a healthcare expert call in the US call for testing all diagnosed pneumonia patients for corona since none of them have so far met the criteria for testing.  Also, once the health care facilities have been overwhelmed deaths from other causes due to unavailability of medical services must be added to the total.

 

It takes a long time to get even reasonably accurate counts of deaths and total infections.  The best current estimate of the case fatality rate from the 1918 flu has been raised from 2.5% to 10% to 20% worldwide.

[Peterbilt]

I did listen to that press conference yesterday.
Asked by a journalist, how long the restrictive measurements could last, Dr. Wieler answered "two year in the worst possible case".
This is not "likely two years".
I did expect better journalism from an agency like Reuters...........

 

[Logosone]

13 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

But are the identified cases complete?  I just heard a healthcare expert call in the US call for testing all diagnosed pneumonia patients for corona since none of them have so far met the criteria for testing.  Also, once the health care facilities have been overwhelmed deaths from other causes due to unavailability of medical services must be added to the total.

 

It takes a long time to get even reasonably accurate counts of deaths and total infections.  The best current estimate of the case fatality rate from the 1918 flu has been raised from 2.5% to 10% to 20% worldwide.

 

No, they are not, identified cases are only a small fraction of real cases.

 

The most recent estimates on mortality rate are here, about 0.1 %

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8122983/This-test-suspected-patients-coronavirus.html

 

Things have changed since the 1918 flu epidemic, there are respirators, antibiotics, HIV drugs and other options which were not available in 1918. Plus there is no war on, no contamination in the trenches and massive troup numbers on the move.

[cmarshall]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

No, they are not, identified cases are only a small fraction of real cases.

 

The most recent estimates on mortality rate are here, about 0.1 %

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8122983/This-test-suspected-patients-coronavirus.html

 

Things have changed since the 1918 flu epidemic, there are respirators, antibiotics, HIV drugs and other options which were not available in 1918. Plus there is no war on, no contamination in the trenches and massive troup numbers on the move.

Why would anyone believe anything in the Daily Mail?  

[Logosone]

18 minutes ago, Peterbilt said:

I did listen to that press conference yesterday.
Asked by a journalist, how long the restrictive measurements could last, Dr. Wieler answered "two year in the worst possible case".
This is not "likely two years".
I did expect better journalism from an agency like Reuters...........

 

 

Absolutely agreed. Germans love to <deleted> people off, obviously this was a very worst case scenario figure. Much likely it will end far earlier. Of course the longer you estimate, you're on the safer side. He's not going to say it'll end in May.

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Why would anyone believe anything in the Daily Mail?  

It's scientists saying this, not the Daily Mail. They are reporting.

 

If you don't believe the study of the Americans in that article, you can verify it on other news sources that will tell you exactly the same.

 

It is well documented that the UK Chief Medical Advisor has said for every death there are 1000 cases.

[cmarshall]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Absolutely agreed. Germans love to <deleted> people off, obviously this was a very worst case scenario figure. Much likely it will end far earlier. Of course the longer you estimate, you're on the safer side. He's not going to say it'll end in May.

Both 1918 Spanish Flu and the 2009 Swine Flu pandemics lasted two years.  So, it's quite possible corona could last that long.  

[Logosone]

The 2009 Swine Flu epidemic lasted from early 2009 to mid 2010, so not really two years.

 

It actually tapered off in November 2009 and by May 2010 cases were in steep decline.

 

 

[Krataiboy]

 

 The coronavirus pandemic is likely to take about two years to run its course. . . much depended on the speed with which a vaccine against the virus was developed.

 

Good news for Big Pharma, but not necessarily for the rest of us - as a look back over our shoulders will confirm.

 

vaccinhttps://www.buzzfeed.com/shaunlintern/these-nhs-staff-were-told-the-swine-flu-vaccine-was-safe

[cmarshall]

26 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The 2009 Swine Flu epidemic lasted from early 2009 to mid 2010, so not really two years.

 

It actually tapered off in November 2009 and by May 2010 cases were in steep decline.

 

 

Depends on how you count.  Jumped to humans Sept., 2008.  Epidemic declared over by WHO August, 2010.  SARS was only 7 or 8 months, but SARS never really escaped, except for a touchdown in Toronto which was controlled.

[GeorgeCross]

6 hours ago, LomSak27 said:

These Are the same people who said don't bother with masks. Now masks are not 100 per cent effective but not surprisingly they are effective. And the reason that this health agency and many others in Europe and North America came out with this sage piece of health advice was

. .... Wait for it ... 

 

That did not have enough masks for health workers who needed them. 

 

 

 

lol - an impossible logic break conundrum

 

"why would health workers need them if they don't work?"

 

TVF's armchair epidemiologists might need Occam's razor to solve this one

 

hint: its not to stop the sick getting sick dummy.

 

 

[wensiensheng]

6 hours ago, Tayaout said:

There is some evidence that suggest immunity only last about a year. 

But this virus has only been around 4 months. How could there be any evidence at all about 1 year out? Smh.

[chilli42]

9 hours ago, Virt said:

I just hope the virus won't mutate into to many strains until we get a vaccine. 

The world is allready looking at a whole lot of pain, when it comes to the economy and lost job. 

This one if affecting us all no matter if we care or not. 

Returning home from Thailand Thursday and looks like I'm returning to some sort of post apocalyptic Europe. 

 

It has already mutated once producing a more aggressive strain.  That only took 2 months.

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

But this virus has only been around 4 months. How could there be any evidence at all about 1 year out? Smh.

Excellent point. There isn't. All we have are isolated reports of Japanese and Chinese who've re-infected after supposedly being cured. But that could be the expected exceptions. In all likelihood immunity will occur, but clearly too early to be certain.

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

The latest on the mortality rate is that it is 0.1%.

 

In line with previous flue epidemics.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8122983/This-test-suspected-patients-coronavirus.html

 

 

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

Case fatality rate in Wuhan and Lombardy was more like 6%.  WHO says overall rate in China was 3.4%  

 

42 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Both 1918 Spanish Flu and the 2009 Swine Flu pandemics lasted two years.  So, it's quite possible corona could last that long.  

Re 3 quotes above - Please understand that the projection I used was illustrative, and I would not stand by any of the particular figures I quoted. Of course we need much more information before we can firm up on them. What it does suggest is that many millions could die if they are anything like correct, which is a sobering thought. 

26 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

 

 The coronavirus pandemic is likely to take about two years to run its course. . . much depended on the speed with which a vaccine against the virus was developed.

 

Good news for Big Pharma, but not necessarily for the rest of us - as a look back over our shoulders will confirm.

 

vaccinhttps://www.buzzfeed.com/shaunlintern/these-nhs-staff-were-told-the-swine-flu-vaccine-was-safe

It is without question a bad idea to rush any drug to market without proper testing, as has been proved time and again - thalidomide anyone? This is exactly why trying to sidestep some FDA protocols, as does appear to be happening at the moment, is a very dangerous approach. Is there an election happening somewhere this year?

[Tayaout]

9 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

But this virus has only been around 4 months. How could there be any evidence at all about 1 year out? Smh.

It's based on other coronavirus research. 

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25685

[cmarshall]

7 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

 

 

Re 3 quotes above - Please understand that the projection I used was illustrative, and I would not stand by any of the particular figures I quoted. Of course we need much more information before we can firm up on them. What it does suggest is that many millions could die if they are anything like correct, which is a sobering thought. 

It is without question a bad idea to rush any drug to market without proper testing, as has been proved time and again - thalidomide anyone? This is exactly why trying to sidestep some FDA protocols, as does appear to be happening at the moment, is a very dangerous approach. Is there an election happening somewhere this year?

And yet practitioners will be between a particularly large rock and a spacious hard place.  Once medical facilities have become saturated additional severe infections particularly in patients with multiple risk factors will result in deaths.  So the case for a widespread "compassionate use" can be made.

Edited March 18, 2020 by cmarshall

[ravip]

7 hours ago, AlexRich said:

I think we should inject Trump with the virus, and feed him the placebo.

Ohhh, the poor innocent man. Why is everyone taking a shot at him?

[Logosone]

It is worth pointing out that the 2009 Swine flu, which infected more people than the Spanish flu had a mortality of about 0.01–0.03%.

 

So if the UK does have 40 million cases, could still be relatively few deaths.

[cmarshall]

Just now, Logosone said:

It is worth pointing out that the 2009 Swine flu, which infected more people than the Spanish flu had a mortality of about 0.01–0.03%.

 

So if the UK does have 40 million cases, could still be relatively few deaths.

Swine flu was H1N1 like the Spanish Flu.  But SARS was a corona virus and had a cfr of 11%.  These earlier cases don't tell you what to expect from a novel virus even in the same family. 

[Logosone]

Yes, SARS had a much higher mortality rate, but we're not dealing with SARS. It is pretty clear that mortality rate with Covid19 is more akin to H1N1 than to SARS.

[Logosone]

8 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

It's based on other coronavirus research. 

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25685

 

Yes, that's what the UK chief medical adviser said as well, that most likely there will be immunity.

 

Of course there are still exceptions to this, as the Japanese reinfection shows. So just pray you're not the exception.