Admit ‘third phase’ is here, govt urged

[webfact]

Admit ‘third phase’ is here, govt urged

By The Nation

 

Adune Ratanawichitrasin , Photo Credit to the Medical Council of Thailand

 

In a dire warning posted on Facebook, a medical official has said the government must announce now that Thailand has entered the third phase of contagion with the Covid-19 virus or else hospitals will see a dangerous depletion in the ranks of health personnel.

 

Adune Ratanawichitrasin of Mahidol University’s Faculty of Medicine at Siriraj Hospital said capabilities for handling the outbreak could be overwhelmed if there is a serious drop in the number of non-infected medical personnel and the equipment needed to treat the virus.

 

The earlier an announcement is made about the third phase – which entails mass contagion – and the easier it will be to manage the spread of the virus, Adune wrote.

 

“If there are 100 [confirmed infections] in Thailand, the officials will have to prepare for around 1,000 people who are possibly infected. More medical personnel will be required, more rooms, more medicine and more equipment.”

 

Thailand currently has 212 confirmed cases.

 

“The term ‘everything is under control’ was spoken before and during the big flood in 2011,” Adune said. “History teaches us lessons and we should learn from it, not let another failure happen.”

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30384325

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-03-18

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[holy cow cm]

If they admit to stage 3 phase then it gonna make a lot of people who are trying to get back to their home country very very hard.  Seal off Bangkok.

[GeorgeCross]

in other news from the paper that cant be named i read the recent uptick in cases is due to more testing, specifically more testing around known clusters.

let that sink in for a bit.

 

i have a very bad feeling there hasn't been many cases because there hasn't been enough testing.

 

 

[Sheryl]

10 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

in other news from the paper that cant be named i read the recent uptick in cases is due to more testing, specifically more testing around known clusters.

l

 

 

More testing is certainly part of it.

 

But the established transmission at the boxing match in the stadium -- attended by something like 5,000 people -- is a game changer.  They cannot begin to track and test all those people.

[holy cow cm]

9 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

i'm pretty sure thats not what you were trying to say ????

 

 

 

I am pretty sure it is exactly what I wanted to say. 

[ParkerN]

Makes good sense, the doctor should be listened to, even if he is a Thai and trying to get his name in the papers - still makes sense unlike most of them. 

 

Ex-nurses from yesteryear? Maybe not so much.

[MaxLee]

I cann feel there will be empty stores tonight as usual

[CGW]

1 hour ago, GeorgeCross said:

i have a very bad feeling there hasn't been many cases because there hasn't been enough testing.

True, but how many weeks has this been going on now, 6 or more, hospitals are not overflowing etc, etc 

The numbers are still low!

What has changed, apart from rampant scaremongering? Replies that state "this is different" not welcome, if it was different what has been happening for the past 6 weeks, is it so different it was playing hide and seek.

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, CGW said:

True, but how many weeks has this been going on now, 6 or more, hospitals are not overflowing etc, etc 

The numbers are still low!

What has changed, apart from rampant scaremongering? Replies that state "this is different" not welcome, if it was different what has been happening for the past 6 weeks, is it so different it was playing hide and seek.

It's impossible to say how many cases there are in Thailand, because some people are asymptomatic. That is, they don't feel ill themselves, but are quite capable of infecting others.

If what the authorities are saying is true, Thailand is one of the better places to be. Permit me to doubt, however.

[samtam]

PM says if they declare Stage 3, Thailand will go into "complete lockdown" He doesn't specify what that means. Until he clarifies, people are going to be stockpiling, on the assumption that they cannot get provisions.

[CGW]

39 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

If what the authorities are saying is true,

Be a first! or are we suddenly supposed to have complete and utter faith in them, they are obviously being told what to do - wonder by who? ????

 

21 minutes ago, samtam said:

He doesn't specify what that means. Until he clarifies

Give them a chance! first it has to be explained to him & repeated, sure "they" don't like to give him too much information all at one time, for obvious reasons!

You surely don't think he is the originator of any info do you?

[Puchaiyank]

Thailand leadership has failed to react quickly enough to prevent widespread infection and overwhelmed medical facilities...if you are an elderly farang...hunker down in place and try to ride out this menace from the security of your home...

[hotchilli]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand currently has 212 confirmed cases.

So either the doctor is panicking about nothing, citing lack of people, medicine, beds etc etc or someones been economical with the truth?

[Jingthing]

17 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

in other news from the paper that cant be named i read the recent uptick in cases is due to more testing, specifically more testing around known clusters.

let that sink in for a bit.

 

i have a very bad feeling there hasn't been many cases because there hasn't been enough testing.

 

 

I've been saying that for months. It's bloody obvious! 

[christophe75]

Stage 3 ?

 

Who cares ?

 

We could say we are in stage 78. or 376733.

 

The virus, like a common cold or a common flu, is everywhere.

 

Million of us have been, are infected or will be infected.

 

So what ?

 

And like common flu, but a hard one, a few hundred will die (for Thailand, a country with a population of 70 millions). Perhaps a few thousands in the worst case scenario.

 

So what ?

 

We let maniacs to shut down the whole world... for this ?

 

When every year, in this very country, thousands of old people die, from illnesses, and more than 20 000 young people die from cars/bikes accidents ?

 

We need to wake up from this nightmare.

 

As people, we need to take a stand, and to say "stop, no more".

[KhunKenAP]

The government only listens to their unqualified inner circle. Listen to a Doctor. He is probably under arrest now.

 

The PM General said everything is under control months ago and has not retracted his statement. Not about to listen to facts now. 

[monkfish]

My friends lives in North Italy now they can't leave their house same like Wuhan.
What stage is that 4, 5, 6? are we going to wait that long to do something.
It's time to stop the tourist Visa's at the very least should have been done weeks ago.

[Katipo]

"“The term ‘everything is under control’ was spoken before and during the big flood in 2011,” Adune said. “History teaches us lessons and we should learn from it, not let another failure happen.”"

 

This statement alone shows that he's smarter than anyone in the government.

[Mayhem11]

Christophe 75 Hear Hear. Well said.

[Denim]

14 hours ago, christophe75 said:

We need to wake up from this nightmare.

 

That will happen when people get as bored with hearing about the virus as they were with Brexit.

 

Now it is big news and people still find it interesting , scary and exciting.

 

Soon enough the financial and economical pain will be thought to be worse than the virus and things will start to open up again in fits and starts as the snow flakes melt away.

 

I remember when AIDS first hit the scene and humanity was facing a grave crisis . 

Well , we got over that and have learnt to accept that it is with us and is not going away but yet not wiping us out.

[eeworldwide]

1 hour ago, christophe75 said:

Stage 3 ?

 

Who cares ?

 

We could say we are in stage 78. or 376733.

 

The virus, like a common cold or a common flu, is everywhere.

 

Million of us have been, are infected or will be infected.

 

So what ?

 

And like common flu, but a hard one, a few hundred will die (for Thailand, a country with a population of 70 millions). Perhaps a few thousands in the worst case scenario.

 

So what ?

 

We let maniacs to shut down the whole world... for this ?

 

When every year, in this very country, thousands of old people die, from illnesses, and more than 20 000 young people die from cars/bikes accidents ?

 

We need to wake up from this nightmare.

 

As people, we need to take a stand, and to say "stop, no more".

Go on then. You first.

I'm assuming that you're Thai and have a voice here?

And once the grand declaration of "NO MORE!!!" has been made, just so we're all up to speed as to what we're doing, can you tell us what happens next?

Do we all go back to our normal lives?

 

[eeworldwide]

26 minutes ago, Denim said:

 

That will happen when people get as bored with hearing about the virus as they were with Brexit.

 

Now it is big news and people still find it interesting , scary and exciting.

 

Soon enough the financial and economical pain will be thought to be worse than the virus and things will start to open up again in fits and starts as the snow flakes melt away.

 

I remember when AIDS first hit the scene and humanity was facing a grave crisis . 

Well , we got over that and have learnt to accept that it is with us and is not going away but yet not wiping us out.

Yes - but getting AIDS is contingent on repeatedly sticking your cock up another guys <deleted> and then moving onto another, and then banging a few chicks without condoms etc.

COVID 19 contraction relies only on your being in reasonable proximity to just another person.

But yes - you're right. - it is scary and exciting. (I'm so hard right now!)

And people will get bored VERY soon.
 

Especially when hunger kicks in and the crappiness of being confined to small spaces takes its toll.

I think (personally) we're only at the START. I predict at least 50Million are going to die.

China are being less than truthful about the current state of affairs - I just DO NOT BELIEVE it's over for them and they have it under control.

Heck - the country who wiped out the first 8 whistle blowers are suddenly being truthful and transparent.... Hell no!!!!!!!

 

[hugocnx]

1 hour ago, christophe75 said:

Stage 3 ?

 

Who cares ?

 

We could say we are in stage 78. or 376733.

 

The virus, like a common cold or a common flu, is everywhere.

 

Million of us have been, are infected or will be infected.

 

So what ?

 

And like common flu, but a hard one, a few hundred will die (for Thailand, a country with a population of 70 millions). Perhaps a few thousands in the worst case scenario.

 

So what ?

 

We let maniacs to shut down the whole world... for this ?

 

When every year, in this very country, thousands of old people die, from illnesses, and more than 20 000 young people die from cars/bikes accidents ?

 

We need to wake up from this nightmare.

 

As people, we need to take a stand, and to say "stop, no more".

Watch a documentary about the Spanish flu.

[chainarong]

It actually arrived last week.

[ThailandRyan]

4 hours ago, christophe75 said:

Stage 3 ?

 

Who cares ?

 

We could say we are in stage 78. or 376733.

 

The virus, like a common cold or a common flu, is everywhere.

 

Million of us have been, are infected or will be infected.

 

So what ?

 

And like common flu, but a hard one, a few hundred will die (for Thailand, a country with a population of 70 millions). Perhaps a few thousands in the worst case scenario.

 

So what ?

 

We let maniacs to shut down the whole world... for this ?

 

When every year, in this very country, thousands of old people die, from illnesses, and more than 20 000 young people die from cars/bikes accidents ?

 

We need to wake up from this nightmare.

 

As people, we need to take a stand, and to say "stop, no more".

Sure, no bar the door Katie, the horse is out of the stable, let her rip, no segregation, no cares, just let it roar and take out anyone and everyone, You sure sound like the anti Vaccine community,  without finding a way to slow its spread this things can be bad, but i get it you just don't give a Fcuck about anyone but yourself, and your ability to do what you want.  What a spoiled person you are..... 

[SkyFax]

54 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

but i get it you just don't give a Fcuck about anyone but yourself,

No problem -- pretty soon he'll wear-out the ENTER button on his computer.

[Mulambana]

23 hours ago, Lacessit said:

It's impossible to say how many cases there are in Thailand, because some people are asymptomatic. That is, they don't feel ill themselves, but are quite capable of infecting others.

If what the authorities are saying is true, Thailand is one of the better places to be. Permit me to doubt, however.

I beleive the number and as ussual even numbers reported in Western countries are not accurate as they simply cannot test everybody. They even cannot test all contacts. For the last few days, Thailand is reproting 30/day and today it jumped to 60.  Next week they will be reporting 200 cases per day. There is noway to stop it unless complete lock down is imposed. They are still allowing flights from European countries - the current epicenter of virus spread. In contrast India gas completely shut off all flights from Europena countries and appears to be containing it with linear growth in numbers. Thailand is heading towards grave danger  when hospitals will be overwelmed. They should close the border ohrwise next week will be utter chaos. I cant beleive that nobody in the government has capability to analyze Chinese and Italian data and come to conclusion that its growth is expoential? If not, please listen to the experts (doctors and virologists). DO what is necessary now. Next week may be too late to save lives.

Edited March 19, 2020 by Mulambana

[gavlar]

23 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

Thailand leadership has failed to react quickly enough to prevent widespread infection and overwhelmed medical facilities...if you are an elderly farang...hunker down in place and try to ride out this menace from the security of your home...

Not trying to be fair or unfair to the Thai government...the reality is no government anywhere in the world can stop or take actions that can truly stop this killer disease...all they are trying ...and in most cases failing...to do is slow it down to give hospitals any chance at coping with the inevitable overwhelming number of people who will need help.

Lock down and try and stay away from normal society for a few months if you are old or have underlying health issues 

[geriatrickid]

23 hours ago, christophe75 said:

Stage 3 ?

Who cares ?

We could say we are in stage 78. or 376733.

The virus, like a common cold or a common flu, is everywhere.

Million of us have been, are infected or will be infected.

So what ?

And like common flu, but a hard one, a few hundred will die (for Thailand, a country with a population of 70 millions). Perhaps a few thousands in the worst case scenario.

So what ?

We let maniacs to shut down the whole world... for this ?

When every year, in this very country, thousands of old people die, from illnesses, and more than 20 000 young people die from cars/bikes accidents ?

We need to wake up from this nightmare.

As people, we need to take a stand, and to say "stop, no more".

I have read your statement and read it again and again, trying to understand your motive in an effort not call it ignorant and selfish, but I cannot. It is obvious that you do not have much of an education, particularly in respect to basic secondary (high school) biology because if you did, you would understand that diseases do not operate in the manner you assume.

 

How do you know the virus is everywhere? MERS is a virus and is not everywhere.

Ebola is a virus and it is not everywhere. They are not everywhere because  governments took draconian measures to contain the infections.

 

How do you know how many have been infected, when many governments especially Thailand  have failed to test and to determine the extent of the infection. 

 

The SARS Cov-2 virus is not a flu virus, not even a "hard" one. It is a Severe Acute Respiratory Virus.  You assume that there will only be a few hundred deaths in Thailand. Are you blind? Deaf? In Italy there are 3400 dead. The ONLY reason why the Italian deaths are not higher is because of the  emergency measures taken and because of the access to an advanced medical care system. Italy is a population of 60 million.   Thailand is 70 million. Although Thailand has a smaller population of elderly, their access to quality health care is rudimentary at best. How many ventilators do you think Thailand has available for anyone who isn't a hiso with connections?

 

Thailand is more likely to have the Italian experience because it failed to close its borders when it had the opportunity. Thailand has been welcoming infected carriers for months when it  could have  contained this  crisis. Had it taken a 30 day pause in January, it would not be looking at  being isolated by much of the world in the coming year.

 

Yes, many people will die in car crashes and other illnesses. However, Covid 19 means that  thousands more will die before their time adding to that death toll.

 

We are now seeing some significant  differences in  who is getting ill as the infection progresses. Whether it is because the virus has mutated or is a different strain than that which  first hit Asia, or there are management  differences, the virus is an equal opportunity deliverer of pain and sorrow;

The US experience is showing some very  different results to China;

- 50% of all infected patients are  hospitalized.

- 40% of the infections are in  "young" people, the group that was supposed to be resistant. They too are  ending up in the hospital on ventilators.

- 1/3 of the hospitalized need to be on ventilators. This is why so many western countries are in panic mode because they do not have the equipment.

 

You statement is ignorant because you have no idea as to the state of general health in Thailand.  We know that people with underlying health problems are at higher risk. Included in that group are people with immune system related illness, Hypertension, diabetes and heart disease. Are you aware that in Thailand;

-There are in excess of 2,000,000 diabetics

-There are in excess of 7,000,000 with hypertension 

-There are in excess of  7,000,000 with heart disease

-There are  in excess Diabetes in Thailand is usually estimated to afflict in excess At least -35% of the  adult male population are smokers, that is 18,000,000+

- 500,000+  have HIV. 

 

Some of these people have one or more of these chronic conditions. These are the people who are most at risk of infection, in addition to their immediate contacts and health care providers.

 

The reason I use the term ignorant is because you ignore the millions of Thais who are at risk of serious illness requiring  ventilators if they are to survive. There are not enough respiratory therapists or ventilators to respond to respiratory disease crisis. 

 

People survived in China because they had access to the necessary health care. It is not available in Thailand. You have decided that millions of Thais have no value. Well, go and tell that to their family and friends. Go tell the mother that her child who is immunosuppressed because of cancer that the child can die.  Go tell the kid his 55 year old father can die  because he has diabetes and   high blood pressure.

 

Do you get it now?  When people start dying en masse, you can go yell at them for ruining your quality of life.  

 

21 hours ago, brain150 said:

Medical Marshal Law ... well planned out by the WHO !!!

This is a global take over, nothing else.

 

All based on fear and scare mongering !

So far I have not seen any evidence at all for anything that's in the media.

But I have heard many medical professionals saying it's way over the top

and not at all justified.

 

For anybody who wants the truth, just watch this simulation from the WHO in October 2019 !!!

Any similarities between the exercise and what is happening now is just a big coincidence !!!

 

What is up with  you people that  see a conspiracy in everything.

The WHO has not invented this  to ensure world domination. The medical professionals you hear are in your  head, or perhaps they are  telling you something else, more specific to your fantasies.

Edited March 20, 2020 by geriatrickid

[fforest1]

On 3/19/2020 at 9:19 AM, Jingthing said:

I've been saying that for months. It's bloody obvious! 

Or maybe its all over exaggerated so there is no one to find...

Edited March 20, 2020 by fforest1