Wuhan Covid Virus - no need to be scared - yet

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, rabas said:

Well, it's completely correct that one is positive and the other negative sense and thus replicate differently as I said, in spite of my typing error. Corona RNA can be used directly by the cell, which is the big difference. You still miss the elephant in the room for the sake of argument.

 

Your quote, the Guardian "Those who have had the virus once will develop some immunity, they said."

 

-- that means we don't have immunity until we get it, like the Spanish flu. The 'some' is because of the incidental reinfections, so even the pros are taking note of that. I wish you the best of health but I could not tell others its like the flu and no need for concern, we are facing the unknown.

 

BTW, the plurals are proper in English for their usage. Look it up.

 

That is correct, you just had them mixed up, it was the influenza viruses that are negative. 

 

As for 'some', Sir Patrick Vallance has clearly stated that the re-infections are 'exceptions', which have always happened in the past, even with influenza. So he parts from the assumption of herd immunity, which seems quite reasonable to me.

 

Yes, Covid19 is a new virus, but it is from the family of coronaviruses that have been known since the 1960s, and it is not the first respiratory disease virus we have seen. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that the vast majority will have immunity, as Sir Patrick Vallance does.

 

The plural virii is not correct. At most it could be the plural for virius, and only in the right circumstances. Let's stick to 'viruses'.

 

https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/3838/viruses-or-virii

 

 

 

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, HHTel said:

What utter rubbish.  Germany has over 20,000 active cases and 209 recovered.

How many of those 20,000 are going to recover?  Mathematical nonsense.

20142 cases, that have been identified',

 

If we apply the twenty times multiple that Sir Patrick Vallance has used in the UK, see here

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8105941/Chief-medics-raise-coronavirus-threat-HIGH-UK.html

 

That means we would have 402840 cases in Germany. The death figure of 70 would represent a figure much smaller than 0.3 per cent.

 

Which ever way you look at it, the death rate in Germany is extremely small for Covid19.

 

 

[chessman]

14 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Don't think so, like Italy, Germany has a mostly older population.

But the people who have got it so far in Germany have been younger. That is true.

 

Look at the numbers I quoted about the increase in deaths. You expect life to go on as usual as the numbers of deaths double every 4 days?

[Ireland32]

11 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

You cannot compare apples and oranges. Seasonal flu is totally different from this new virus

Infectivity is 2.5 times more, and building.

Please look at more than the mortality rate , overwhelmed health system, no effective prevention outside of basic hand hygiene.

I would rather act on the side of caution, and take my advice from health and scientific professionals as this evolves.

 

Please keep an open mind on this epidemic, especially when you consider poor sanitation and not many ventilators in Thailand.

 

You re  beating dead horse on some of these ......

[Sambotte]

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

The plural virii is not correct. At most it could be the plural for virius, and only in the right circumstances. Let's stick to 'viruses'.

 

https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/3838/viruses-or-virii

 

And Virus is Latin, and French.

Like a large proportion of english words.

Ne vous en déplaise ????

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

But the people who have got it so far in Germany have been younger. That is true.

 

Look at the numbers I quoted about the increase in deaths. You expect life to go on as usual as the numbers of deaths double every 4 days?

 

Some of the infected have been younger. The first infected person, patient zero, was indeed only 33 years old. However, the point surely is, if Covid19 is so rapaciouisly contagious, younger people would infect older people. Since Germany has a very large contingent of older people, the younger patient explanation seems implausible.

 

I don't expect the numbers of deaths to double every 4 days. At some point they will cease alltogether. This has been the case with all pandemics in the past.

[Skeptic7]

I wrote this on another thread and bears repeating here...

 

The fallout and cost of these extreme draconian measures around the globe could be far more costly to the world economy than any assumed benefits. More deaths could come afterwards from suicide, crime and poverty when this ends and nobody has a job or a pension and their savings/retirement accounts are wiped out. 

 

TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...

 

What really slays me is that this Wuhan Flu has killed 11,000 worldwide in 3-4 months...YET tobacco related deaths are approx 22,000 each and EVERY DAY but smoking is not banned.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

 

The common seasonable flu kills approx 500,000 EVERY year, yet the world carries on normally. Motor vehicle deaths are approx 3700 each and every day, but not a second thought given when getting out on the roads.

 

Cardiovascular disease offs a mind-blowing 17 MILLION folks per year (46,500 every DAY!!!). The kicker here is many/most of those deaths are PREVENTABLE and due to lifestyle CHOICES based on bad diet and lack of exercise...but people continue to gorge on unhealthy foods lead sedentary lives. 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cardiovascular-diseases-(cvds)

 

Mosquito borne deaths are approx 1 million/year...(2700+/day).

 

EVERYONE has a much better chance of dying from any of the above causes than "Wuhan Flu". This mass hysteria, panic and extreme overreaction is ridiculous. If nothing else, hopefully the hard facts here puts things in a better perspective. This virus is NOT the end of the world and not even close...even though the media and governments are making it seem so. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Skeptic7

[Logosone]

I still think the governments have all been negligent in that they have acted too late.

 

It has been known since 2012 that a coronavirus pandemic was likely. Our governments did nothing.

 

Now it is good to take it seriously, but it is too late for any efforts to make a big difference, and indeed some measures could have massively negative side-effects in return for no discernible benefit.

 

It is good to take it seriously because if the rate of infection does go on in a linear way, if Covid19 is not seasonal, and if say 40 million Britons are infected then 130,000 may die.

 

That is a large number of lives. But it is fair point that other dangers to health should not be ignored. I've already seen how my very ill and elderly grandmother can not now get a doctor to reply, because everyone is focusing on coronavirus.

[Sambotte]

Agree.

But this pandemy is SUDDEN, and nobody knows how hard it will hit. I think that's what scare people. Like terrorism, brutal, sudden, but low numbers.

Compared to what kills people. Pollution being the worst. Nobody cares.

[chessman]

20 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Some of the infected have been younger. The first infected person, patient zero, was indeed only 33 years old. However, the point surely is, if Covid19 is so rapaciouisly contagious, younger people would infect older people. Since Germany has a very large contingent of older people, the younger patient explanation seems implausible.

 

I don't expect the numbers of deaths to double every 4 days. At some point they will cease alltogether. This has been the case with all pandemics in the past.

The point is not to dispute that Germany doesn't have old people. The point is that a larger percentage of the people testing positive have been younger and so there have been fewer deaths (so far). As the virus spreads more and more there will be more deaths in Germany and the mortality rate will increase. It is the argument made by German virologists in this article who I think know more than you and me... https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

 

Even if you disagree with all of that, it's not smart to base predictions about the future on the statistical anomaly in Europe.

 

Of course, the deaths will cease but it makes a big difference if they can be held as low as possible.

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, Sambotte said:

Agree.

But this pandemy is SUDDEN, and nobody knows how hard it will hit. I think that's what scare people. Like terrorism, brutal, sudden, but low numbers.

Compared to what kills people. Pollution being the worst. Nobody cares.

Yes, I think it is clear that people are scared. They are terrified. And it is the media that is causing this fear and panic. Because it sells more advertising if it has people hooked and watching.

 

When was the last time you saw a news report tell you Germany is doing well fighting the virus, and has a tiny mortality rate? That other threats to health kill more people.

 

 

[Sambotte]

Yeap. Medias are medias. But people are people too. It's a vicious circle.

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, chessman said:

The point is not to dispute that Germany doesn't have old people. The point is that a larger percentage of the people testing positive have been younger and so there have been fewer deaths (so far). As the virus spreads more and more there will be more deaths in Germany and the mortality rate will increase. It is the argument made by German virologists in this article who I think know more than you and me...

 

Even if you disagree with all of that, it's not smart to base predictions about the future on the statistical anomaly in Europe.

 

Of course, the deaths will cease but it makes a big difference if they can be held as low as possible.

 

Again, I don't think the reason for Germany's death rate is that younger people are infected exclusively. Of course some young people are affected. However, Germany has population that is older than Italy.

 

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/median-age/

 

If this Covid19 is as virally contagious as the figures suggest then of course older people are infected in Germany.

 

The low mortality rate in Germany also has to do with the fact that Germany has 25000 ICUs, whereas Italy has 5000, UK 4000 and France 7000, it has to do with the fact that a German company is a world market leader in respirators, that German doctors are highly trained...there are many reasons that contribute, it isn't just one.

 

Of course there will be more deaths in Germany, but the mortality rate as a percentage may not increase by much. We shall see.

 

Germany maybe a slight anomaly in that they are exceptionally successful in fighting Covid19, but other countries do not have mortality rates that are insanely higher either.

 

 

[Kelsall]

China quarantined 60 Million people because of this, something that has never happened in the history of mankind.

 

They don't do that for the flu.

[HHTel]

Quote

Germany

Coronavirus Cases:

21,483

Deaths:

73

Recovered:

209

 

ACTIVE CASES

21,201

Currently Infected Patients

21,199 (100%)

in Mild Condition

2 (0%)

Serious or Critical

Show Graph

Feb 15Feb 18Feb 21Feb 24Feb 27Mar 01Mar 04Mar 07Mar 10Mar 13Mar 16Mar 19010k20k30k

Show Statistics

CLOSED CASES

282

Cases which had an outcome:

209 (74%)

Recovered / Discharged

73 (26%)

Deaths

Show Graph

 

[Dumbastheycome]

10 hours ago, Retarded said:

One US 8th army general described the local people in foreign country where US army had troops by comparing as wild rats half century ago. If one rat heads to a certain direction then the rest flock of rats follow without knowing where they are heading. The flocks continue to move in random direction until they exhaust. 

 

Now with Facebook and all the digital medias together with political correctness inundating all over the globe, entire population on the earth behaves like wild rats.   

While the enlisted members of an army are obliged to follow orders with no right to dispute.

Do Generals  have autonomy ?

If the Supreme  Commander demonstrates no comprehension of information that is in the face what then?

Chaos!

[MikeN]

13 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Flu kills up to 650,000 people worldwide each year - WHO number not mine - I rounded down to 500K.

 

650,000 a year equates to 54,166 every month.

 

Do the maths.

 

the flu is globally endemic, and just about impossible to wipe out.

If this new virus is allowed to also become endemic imagine the new numbers. At least twice as infectious as the flu, and (even on your figures of 1%) 10 times as deadly. 650,000*2, *10 =13,000,000/ year. Still want to bury your head in the sand and think it is all going to miraculously go away ?

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Kelsall said:

China quarantined 60 Million people because of this, something that has never happened in the history of mankind.

 

They don't do that for the flu.

That's because it was thought that this brand new virus was more deadly and more contagious than the flu.

 

Only a few days ago a study in Wuhan admitted that the death rate was less than half the 3.4 % figure that was initially reported.

 

However, even that study only looks at identified cases, because guess what authors of studies like to have confirmed figures so their studies show solid figures.

 

If you listen to the UK's Chief Medical Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, however, you have a clear admission that identified cases are only a fraction of real cases, which are in the order of 20 times higher.

 

Now, if you take the Chinese case figure, multiply it by only ten, not even 20, and you take the death figure you get a mortality rate of just over 0.3%, which is very much like the mortality rate for the flu. In fact some flu pandemics have a much higher mortality rate.

 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8105941/Chief-medics-raise-coronavirus-threat-HIGH-UK.html

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Logosone

[Mayhem11]

AussieBob18. I am with you. The global figures on Corona (as available on the web) do not add up to a usual flu season globally. This thing started ramping up 2 months ago outside of the PRC. You cannot simply apply the four month data on death (including the PRC’s figures) and call it monthly data. Something doesn’t add up. This Corona is nasty but it seems it does not exceed flu nastiness. You don’t need to be an ‘expert’ to start questioning the true agenda of the reaction to Corona virus.

[seancbk]

15 hours ago, Vigilante said:

The virus was never my main concern

The secondary effects are

Bearing in mind also that we are a million miles from home.

 

Blimey I've never met any one from another planet.   

[Logosone]

19 minutes ago, Mayhem11 said:

AussieBob18. I am with you. The global figures on Corona (as available on the web) do not add up to a usual flu season globally. This thing started ramping up 2 months ago outside of the PRC. You cannot simply apply the four month data on death (including the PRC’s figures) and call it monthly data. Something doesn’t add up. This Corona is nasty but it seems it does not exceed flu nastiness. You don’t need to be an ‘expert’ to start questioning the true agenda of the reaction to Corona virus.

This has basically just been a catalogue of one poor government decision followed by another, mistake after mistake after mistake.

 

In Wuhan the early stages were mishandled poorly, European governments totally failed, as did the US, not to mention the ridiculous Japanese comedy of incompetence that was the Diamond Princess, and all of this was underpinned by the orchestra of the idiotic, alarmist media, that was writing false, unthinking reports day after day. 

 

Now the governments want to be seen to be doing something, and it may just be that what they're doing is worse than the virus itself.

[Tony125]

US now has a test kit to diagnos CoronaVirus  within 45 mins

 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/571968/coronavirus-test-results-hours-approved-available-week/?utm_medium=browser_notifications&utm_source=pushly

 

 

[richard_smith237]

7 hours ago, Logosone said:

That's because it was thought that this brand new virus was more deadly and more contagious than the flu.

 

Only a few days ago a study in Wuhan admitted that the death rate was less than half the 3.4 % figure that was initially reported.

 

However, even that study only looks at identified cases, because guess what authors of studies like to have confirmed figures so their studies show solid figures.

 

If you listen to the UK's Chief Medical Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, however, you have a clear admission that identified cases are only a fraction of real cases, which are in the order of 20 times higher.

 

Now, if you take the Chinese case figure, multiply it by only ten, not even 20, and you take the death figure you get a mortality rate of just over 0.3%, which is very much like the mortality rate for the flu. In fact some flu pandemics have a much higher mortality rate.

 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8105941/Chief-medics-raise-coronavirus-threat-HIGH-UK.html

 

 

The 2009 Swine Flu pandemic impacted between 11-21% of the global population: 700 million to 1.4 Billion people, with between 150,000 and 575,000 fatalities (Because of Swine flu). 

 

These numbers are people who may have had ‘other complications’ but died because of Swine flu. i.e. had they not contracted swine flu they may have died by the end of year anyway, or recovered, but swine flu was the significant complicating factor in their passing - its a grey area, hence the large range in numbers.

 

So, Numbers for 2009 Swine Flu:

- Low end CFR: 150,000 people died of 1.4 Billion infected = CFR of 0.01%

- High end CFR: 575,000 people died of 700 million infected = CFR 0.08% 

 

Your CFR figure of 0.3% for Covid-19 is 3.6 timer higher than the best estimates for the worst flu epidemic in recent history and significantly higher than seasonal flu which has a much lower CFR of 0.001% to 0.01% [Source CDC figures for North America. (5-16 yrs olds: 1 death per 100,000ppl / 17-50 year olds: 2 deaths per 100,000 people / 51-65 yrs old: 10.6 deaths per 100,000 pals) - with a Crude death rate of 17.1 per 100,000 people (0.017%)]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf

 

Thus, even with your ‘erring on the low side’ approach to the stats, when using your CFR of 0.3% the numbers are potentially harrowing if this virus were to spread into the 100’s million to a billion. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

Now the governments want to be seen to be doing something, and it may just be that what they're doing is worse than the virus itself.

 

Do you mean the knock on economic impact could be worse than that of the virus if left to spread without mitigation?

 

i.e. deaths related to poor health due to poverty in light of an economic crisis...etc?? 

Slow down in global development, less funds for cancer research and research into other illnesses which leads to more deaths which may have otherwise been prevented?

 

These potentials are unknown, but they exists. As does the potential for the Virus to spread. 

 

Models must exist somewhere and the choice has been made to chose one of two very bad choices. 

Do nothing and risk decimation of our society, do something and risk economic melt-down. 

 

 

[AussieBob18]

13 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

600 today in Italy up from 400 yesterday

Yep - Italy doing it tough - no one is sure why 10% mortality rate.

8 today in China - Korea the same number

It has started to slow down there - and in many other countries.

 

WHO reports and pandemic started 21 January 2020

Total positive tests worldwide = 266,073

Total deaths worldwide = 11,184

Mortality Rate = 4.2%

 

Germany has completed extensive testing - more than most other countries combined.

These are their WHO numbers that have been tested confirmed and treated/in treatment.

18,323 confirmed cases - 45 deaths - mortality rate 0.25%

Estimated number of people tested = 400K and that equates to an infection rate = 5%

But that is only of all people tested - there is no way to estimate the numbers exposed.

 

What will be the eventual numbers - I still see the best indicator is the Diamond Princess

Infection rate (when exposed in close quaters) = 20% 

Mortality Rate = 1%

 

In the same period (61 days) 200,507 people died in car accidents.

20 times that number were injured = 4,010,140

1.25 million people die in road crashes each year - on average 3,287 deaths a day.

https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

Are we going to shut down all road traffic except essential needs (trucks, medical, police, etc)??

 

I am still very skeptical that the world needed to be shut down and the economies crashed for this.

I still believe this has been a massive over-reaction and that it was not justified.

But I also believe that if I am right then the world will no longer fall for doomsayers (with a PHD or not).

[AussieBob18]

13 hours ago, jak2002003 said:

Agree.  Mass hysteria fueled by misinformation, politics, social media, and stupid / ignorant people (that seem to make up a larger proportion of the population than then used to).

This world is full of over-educated idiots that were taught more about the environment, rights and their feelings, than they were taught about the reality of life and death (the classics).  This is the price that we are all now paying.

[AussieBob18]

11 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Shot 77 around Gymkhana age 76, but for a double bogey on the 17th, alas. IMO if we continue to set our selves goals, it is life-prolonging. My hero is Keith McPherson, in the Guinness Book of Records for breaking his age. Played with him quite a few  times. His grandson, Bryden McPherson, won the British Amateur. Good thread, it's stirring up the possums.

Bug gah - so close.  Keep trying mater ????  I did shoot in the 60s once - but it was a Par 3 course ????

Thanks - had to speak out - and glad I did. 

[AussieBob18]

11 hours ago, HHTel said:

That doesn't hold water.  You can only give a mortality rate when everyone has either recovered or died!

I agree. And same for infection rate.  But the 'experts' at WHO have used the figures from China in January to declare a pandemic and the world has massively over-reacted.  They did it for the right reasons - but as the good book says:  'The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.'  

[AussieBob18]

9 hours ago, MikeN said:

the flu is globally endemic, and just about impossible to wipe out.

If this new virus is allowed to also become endemic imagine the new numbers. At least twice as infectious as the flu, and (even on your figures of 1%) 10 times as deadly. 650,000*2, *10 =13,000,000/ year. Still want to bury your head in the sand and think it is all going to miraculously go away ?

Perhaps it will be that bad.  But I am skeptical.  But hey - I aint got my head in the sand. As I have said many times, I am taking precautions - even my avatar has a mask - and I am doing what I can to limit my exposure to othger people.  I am saying that I am skeptical that the whole world needed to be shut down for a bad flu.  These precautions could have all been put in place in such a manner that didnt crash economies and didnt do so much damage to people's lives in the long run.  The danmger of panic is that there is no thinking ahead - and that is what happened IMO - they paniced and they should have planned and acted. Yes China caused that by holding things back and lieing - but IMO they went too far too quickly.  I hope I am right and this is soon seen and agreed by the experts that this is a bad flu whereby we all need to take precautions - but there is no need to panic and shut the world down. 

[AussieBob18]

7 hours ago, Logosone said:

This has basically just been a catalogue of one poor government decision followed by another, mistake after mistake after mistake.

 

In Wuhan the early stages were mishandled poorly, European governments totally failed, as did the US, not to mention the ridiculous Japanese comedy of incompetence that was the Diamond Princess, and all of this was underpinned by the orchestra of the idiotic, alarmist media, that was writing false, unthinking reports day after day. 

 

Now the governments want to be seen to be doing something, and it may just be that what they're doing is worse than the virus itself.

Absolutely correct IMO - and add to that the unbridled panic that spread through the new 'social media' and internet.  It has been unprecedented in its totality of worldwide panic - the stock markets have crashed worse than in WW2 - and they are implementing social control measures like it is WW2 - unbelievable.