Britain's NHS could be overwhelmed like Italy, Johnson warns on coronavirus

[Logosone]

25 minutes ago, overherebc said:

You really believe that 7/8 years ago he, like some prophet, saw the future Corona Virus.

I the 70's I did an NBC course and we had guys ( experts in the field at the time ) doing the lecturing.

One of them stated then that at 'some time in the future' something on these lines would appear and would be serious and there will be very little the world will be able to do about it. So the idea is nothing new.

Try to stop all the political <deleted> and stay home for a couple of weeks. That might make a difference.

Winning political points and people posting fartoids? just doesn't help.

He did not have to be a prophet to see the coronavirus 7/8 years ago. Experts did it for him.

 

The Robert Koch Institute warning of what would happen if a coronavirus pandemic unfolds was published in 2012. It was debated in the German parliament. It was public knowledge.

 

The Robert Koch Institute is not some guy you met, it's one of THE world reknown health research institutes in the world, an agency of the German government. If they said in 2012 if a coronavirus pandemic happens, guys this could be really bad, millions will die, you don't think the governments should have paid attention and prepared? They could have! They didn't need to be prophets. The experts foresaw it for them!

 

And btw, self-isolation will not do it. Yeah, that's right, guess what, self-isolating the healthy from the healthy accomplishes exactly nothing. The governments should have been concentrating on testing, identifying and isolating the sick and carriers. That's what would do it.

 

Latest from the WHO: Self-Isolation not enough!

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-who-ryan.html

Edited March 23, 2020 by Logosone

[bristolboy]

45 minutes ago, Logosone said:

He did not have to be a prophet to see the coronavirus 7/8 years ago. Experts did it for him.

 

The Robert Koch Institute warning of what would happen if a coronavirus pandemic unfolds was published in 2012. It was debated in the German parliament. It was public knowledge.

 

The Robert Koch Institute is not some guy you met, it's one of THE world reknown health research institutes in the world, an agency of the German government. If they said in 2012 if a coronavirus pandemic happens, guys this could be really bad, millions will die, you don't think the governments should have paid attention and prepared? They could have! They didn't need to be prophets. The experts foresaw it for them!

 

And btw, self-isolation will not do it. Yeah, that's right, guess what, self-isolating the healthy from the healthy accomplishes exactly nothing. The governments should have been concentrating on testing, identifying and isolating the sick and carriers. That's what would do it.

 

Latest from the WHO: Self-Isolation not enough!

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-who-ryan.html

How can the government isolate asymptomatic carriers if they haven't done nearly enough tests to identify them? Nor have the capacity?

[overherebc]

6 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

How can the government isolate asymptomatic carriers if they haven't done nearly enough tests to identify them? Nor have the capacity?

Don't worry, you'll get an answer based on politics and seeing into the future. Seems that's where the answer lies. Not in just staying home for two weeks.

News on from uk tv showing a great line of brain dead waiting to climb Snowdon together.

Would it be too much to wait a few weeks to do this?

[transam]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

He did not have to be a prophet to see the coronavirus 7/8 years ago. Experts did it for him.

 

The Robert Koch Institute warning of what would happen if a coronavirus pandemic unfolds was published in 2012. It was debated in the German parliament. It was public knowledge.

 

The Robert Koch Institute is not some guy you met, it's one of THE world reknown health research institutes in the world, an agency of the German government. If they said in 2012 if a coronavirus pandemic happens, guys this could be really bad, millions will die, you don't think the governments should have paid attention and prepared? They could have! They didn't need to be prophets. The experts foresaw it for them!

 

And btw, self-isolation will not do it. Yeah, that's right, guess what, self-isolating the healthy from the healthy accomplishes exactly nothing. The governments should have been concentrating on testing, identifying and isolating the sick and carriers. That's what would do it.

 

Latest from the WHO: Self-Isolation not enough!

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-who-ryan.html

I bet you're dribbling...........????

[overherebc]

Some people know so much about test kits being in short supply but forget that every virus is different so before it is discovered you can't make a test kit for it.

However that is probably, in some minds, the fault of Brexit.

[Logosone]

24 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

How can the government isolate asymptomatic carriers if they haven't done nearly enough tests to identify them? Nor have the capacity?

 

Well, the answer is rather obvious, isn't it?

 

Rather than focus on self-isolation, what they should be doing is focusing on doing tests.

 

A small single German company has produced 1.4 million tests in four weeks and given to the WHO so that other countries can use them. If a German company can produce 1.4 million test kits in four weeks, why can't British companies do it? You are also one of the leading pharmaceutical nations in the world, you have labs, you can build more labs. That should be your focus, do more testing.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

It should also be the focus ahead of producing more respirators btw, which only treat the symptoms. If you do more tests you have a chance of isolating those that actually matter, the carriers and sick. Isolating the healthy from the healthy will accomplish nothing.

 

What do you think will happen when the government allows people to go out and the carriers and sick have not been identified? Exactly.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

5 minutes ago, overherebc said:

Some people know so much about test kits being in short supply but forget that every virus is different so before it is discovered you can't make a test kit for it.

However that is probably, in some minds, the fault of Brexit.

Coronaviruses have been identified since the 1960s. Doing a test for coronavirus is two swabs, nasal and throat, then do a simple lab test that is also used in paternity tests, identifying genetic diseases, that test has been around for a long time. As have swabs.

 

Again, a single small German company produced 1.4 million test kits in four weeks. 

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

Having enough tests kits is really not the issue, Germany produces so many it is handing them to the WHO so other countries can use them. 

 

The problem is that your government is not focusing on testing, but rather on 'self-isolation'. But isolating the healthy from the healthy is pointless. What needs to be done is to identify and isolate the sick and carriers.

[bristolboy]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Well, the answer is rather obvious, isn't it?

 

Rather than focus on self-isolation, what they should be doing is focusing on doing tests.

 

A small single German company has produced 1.4 million tests in four weeks and given to the WHO so that other countries can use them. If a German company can produce 1.4 million test kits in four weeks, why can't British companies do it? You are also one of the leading pharmaceutical nations in the world, you have labs, you can build more labs. That should be your focus, do more testing.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

It should also be the focus ahead of producing more respirators btw, which only treat the symptoms. If you do more tests you have a chance of isolating those that actually matter, the carriers and sick. Isolating the healthy from the healthy will accomplish nothing.

 

What do you think will happen when the government allows people to go out and the carriers and sick have not been identified? Exactly.

Which is why social isolation will be effective. Especially in a nation like Germany where people take their social responsibilities seriously.

[overherebc]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Well, the answer is rather obvious, isn't it?

 

Rather than focus on self-isolation, what they should be doing is focusing on doing tests.

 

A small single German company has produced 1.4 million tests in four weeks and given to the WHO so that other countries can use them. If a German company can produce 1.4 million test kits in four weeks, why can't British companies do it? You are also one of the leading pharmaceutical nations in the world, you have labs, you can build more labs. That should be your focus, do more testing.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

It should also be the focus ahead of producing more respirators btw, which only treat the systems. If you do more tests you have a chance of isolating those that actually matter, the carriers and sick. Isolating the healthy from the healthy will accomplish nothing.

 

What do you think will happen when the government allows people to go out and the carriers and sick have not been identified? Exactly.

Just because the uk gov' hasn't sent you an e mail on it doesn't mean they're not doing it, they will be producing them as fast as they can. ( Despite the Brexit delay ).

[Logosone]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

Which is why social isolation will be effective. Especially in a nation like Germany where people take their social responsibilities seriously.

No, it won't. Because you can't socially isolate forever. Eventually people will need to be allowed to go out of their house again. If that doesn't happen soon enough they will just do so out of themselves. And what do you think will happen when people go out after social isolation ends but the carriers have not been identified?

 

Self-isolation can not work in the long term. It is a short-term fix but not a long term fix.

 

The long-term fix is to identify the sick and carriers and to ISOLATE THEM. 

 

The WHO is telling you loud and clear:

 

"What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus, and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them," Mike Ryan said in an interview on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-who-ryan.html

 

Don't be like Boris. BE LIKE MIKE!

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, overherebc said:

Just because the uk gov' hasn't sent you an e mail on it doesn't mean they're not doing it, they will be producing them as fast as they can. ( Despite the Brexit delay ).

Yes, Boris has understood now that testing needs to increase and has said that more testing will be done. The testing will roughly be raised to the level of Germany's testing. It took loud and constant protests from NHS professionals, including a petition by a junior NHS doctor for this decision to be taken.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/18/uk-coronavirus-testing-will-increase-to-25000-a-day-says-boris-johnson

 

But it is a bit late, Germany has been doing this from the start. Time is precious here.

 

Even Austria has already tested almost twice the number that were tested in the UK.

 

Note the Guardian, out of embarassment, leaves out Germany in the chart.

 

Now your government started late, you have less time and every day people are dying.

 

Whilst the UK was testing 35000 a week, Germany was testing over 160000.

 

I would not be happy with how this government is handling the pandemic.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Logosone

[Opl]

it's easier to track possibly infected persons among a population that has been sheltered in for a period of time - long enough - then test as much as possible where there is suspicion, than to let people free to hang out 

By identifying and isolating clusters of infected people, we wiped out Covid-19 in Vò 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Opl

[overherebc]

17 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No, it won't. Because you can't socially isolate forever. Eventually people will need to be allowed to go out of their house again. If that doesn't happen soon enough they will just do so out of themselves. And what do you think will happen when people go out after social isolation ends but the carriers have not been identified?

 

Self-isolation can not work in the long term. It is a short-term fix but not a long term fix.

 

The long-term fix is to identify the sick and carriers and to ISOLATE THEM. 

 

The WHO is telling you loud and clear:

 

"What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus, and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them," Mike Ryan said in an interview on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-who-ryan.html

 

Don't be like Boris. BE LIKE MIKE!

The whole idea of self isolation is not to stop or get rid of the virus but only to slow down its spread to give medical services and labs more time to deal with it. Most likely a vaccine will appear and will control it so until then anything an individual can do to slow will help. 

100 cases a day might be a bit easier to deal with than 1000 a day, don't you think?

Edited March 23, 2020 by overherebc

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, Opl said:

it's easier to track possibly infected persons among a population that has been sheltered in for a period of time - long enough - then test as much as possible where there is suspicion, than to let people free to hang out 

By identifying and isolating clusters of infected people, we wiped out Covid-19 in Vò 

No it's not easier, actually. You still have to do tests. And you can't go on 'suspicion', you have to test the asymptomatic.

 

Self isolation doesn't affect the fact that you need to do tests. Nor does it make it easier.

 

On the contrary it makes it more difficult. If there is no public transport, if people are not allowed to go see their doctor, if lab personnel is distracted by finding food, how is this making it easier?

 

Self isolation is making testing more difficult.

[Logosone]

15 minutes ago, overherebc said:

The whole idea of self isolation is not to stop or get rid of the virus but only to slow down its spread to give medical services and labs more time to deal with it. Most likely a vaccine will appear and will control it so until then anything an individual can do to slow will help. 

100 cases a day might be a bit easier to deal with than 1000 a day, don't you think?

Look, a vaccine is a year away. Maybe longer. It's easy to do a vaccine. It's hard to do one that works.

 

We have flu vaccines. Have flu vaccines stopped people getting sick from the flu? 

 

The UK, where flu vaccines are used has 17,000 people dying of the flu per year. Thailand, where vaccines are hardly used has 2500 people dying from the flu per year.

 

What if the Covid19 vaccines will not work any better than flu vaccines?

 

So, there is no alternative but to test, identify and isolate. This is the only way. 

 

Self isolation is not a one-year or two-year option. People are  self-isolating on the understanding it will take two or four weeks. There is no telling how long the people will heed the call to self-isolate.

 

This self-isolation is a myth anyway, people are still going out to supermarkets to get food, they are still going to work, they are still taking public transport, walking in the sun.

 

What is not a myth is that testing, identifying and isolation will defeat the virus.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Logosone

[soalbundy]

On 3/22/2020 at 11:32 AM, Logosone said:

 

Not really, the German health system seems to be doing extremely well with this challenge.

 

But then manufacturing is still alive in Germany and one of the world's leading manufacturers of respirators is German.

 

And in Germany they have 25000 ICU beds, not 4000 like in the UK.

28,000

[soalbundy]

The NHS is overwhelmed without covi-19, I have friends in the UK that say getting a GP appointment pre-corona is like winning the lottery and then if and when he says you need a specialist appointment you can wait another 3 months.

[Jip99]

1 minute ago, soalbundy said:

The NHS is overwhelmed without covi-19, I have friends in the UK that say getting a GP appointment pre-corona is like winning the lottery and then if and when he says you need a specialist appointment you can wait another 3 months.

 

 

Change your friends...........................????

 

 

I walked straight in for a hernia check (well, straight in after calling at 9:00 am to request a call back, which I received at 11.00 with the doc saying "best you pop in", which I did at 11.15).

 

He confirmed the need for surgery and made the referral.

 

Admittedly, the 18 week waiting period became 27 weeks but the NHS team were first class when I eventually went in for the op.

 

So, yes, the NHS was already stretched (as it has been for the last 40/50 years to my knowledge) but still better than the Lottery (where I didn't have a win in the 27 weeks of waiting!).

[bristolboy]

10 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

The NHS is overwhelmed without covi-19, I have friends in the UK that say getting a GP appointment pre-corona is like winning the lottery and then if and when he says you need a specialist appointment you can wait another 3 months.

No fair. The choice was between increasing  funding for either NHS or millionairs & billionaires. Being what they are, for the Tories it was no choice at all.

[roo860]

51 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Coronaviruses have been identified since the 1960s. Doing a test for coronavirus is two swabs, nasal and throat, then do a simple lab test that is also used in paternity tests, identifying genetic diseases, that test has been around for a long time. As have swabs.

 

Again, a single small German company produced 1.4 million test kits in four weeks. 

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

Having enough tests kits is really not the issue, Germany produces so many it is handing them to the WHO so other countries can use them. 

 

The problem is that your government is not focusing on testing, but rather on 'self-isolation'. But isolating the healthy from the healthy is pointless. What needs to be done is to identify and isolate the sick and carriers.

How is the government of your country tackling this virus?

[Logosone]

20 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

28,000

Thank you, and about to double the 500,000 hospital bed capacity.

 

Germany is doing something!

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, roo860 said:

How is the government of your country tackling this virus?

Extremely well. They prepared by having 28,000 icu beds to start with. Fortunately one of the world leading respirator manufacturers is German, so the number of respirators is being increased as well. A single, small Germany company made 1.4 million test kits in 4 weeks and gave them to the WHO because Germany has enough.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

But by far the best, by far the most important thing they are doing is testing, identifying and isolating.

 

Germany has already been doing more than 160,000 tests a week, what the UK said it will do this past week, after only doing 35,000 tests a week. The number of tests in Germany will no doubt go up.

 

One of the key advantages Germany has is a proliferation of small labs, that are able to do the test.

 

As a result the mortality rate in Germany is very low.

 

Of course Merkel still dropped the ball, she should have isolated the country when she had the chance in late December or early January.

 

She should have heeded her own government department which had the Robert Koch Institute demonstrate that coronavirus pandemic would kill millions in 2012. She should have prepared even better.

 

But they're doing well, better than any country on earth. So that's good.

[transam]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Extremely well. They prepared by having 28,000 icu beds to start with. Fortunately one of the world leading respirator manufacturers is German, so the number of respirators is being increased as well. A single, small Germany company made 1.4 million test kits in 4 weeks and gave them to the WHO because Germany has enough.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

 

But by far the best, by far the most important thing they are doing is testing, identifying and isolating.

 

Germany has already been doing more than 160,000 tests a week, what the UK said it will do this past week, after only doing 35,000 tests a week. The number of tests in Germany will no doubt go up.

 

One of the key advantages Germany has is a proliferation of small labs, that are able to do the test.

 

As a result the mortality rate in Germany is very low.

 

Of course Merkel still dropped the ball, she should have isolated the country when she had the chance in late December or early January.

 

She should have heeded her own government department which had the Robert Koch Institute demonstrate that coronavirus pandemic would kill millions in 2012. She should have prepared even better.

 

But they're doing well, better than any country on earth. So that's good.

A Spanish German....?

[Laughing Gravy]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

But it is a bit late, Germany has been doing this from the start. Time is precious here.

 

 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Again, a single small German company produced 1.4 million test kits in four weeks. 

 

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

The Robert Koch Institute is not some guy you met, it's one of THE world reknown health research institutes in the world, an agency of the German government.

I was wondering are you German or you just like German products or you feel Germany is doing things much better than everyone else.????

[Logosone]

All three, Stan.

[transam]

1 minute ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 

 

 

I was wondering are you German or you just like German products or you feel Germany is doing things much better than everyone else.????

I thought Spanish with a VW.....????

[roo860]

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

All three, Stan.

 I used to have a German girlfriend, when she first came to the UK she was amazed we could go shopping on a Sunday. Germany pretty much  closed Saturday, we showed em!!!!!

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, transam said:

I thought Spanish with a VW.....????

I did once own a VW Touareg. Awesome SUV, really recommend it. Developed with Porsche and Audi.

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, roo860 said:

 I used to have a German girlfriend, when she first came to the UK she was amazed we could go shopping on a Sunday. Germany pretty much  closed Saturday, we showed em!!!!!

That's true, there a some things that are better in the UK. I quite agree.

 

Also better bookshops and if there is a place in Germany that can make coffee as good as Savini's in London I would be surprised.

 

However, sadly, your health care system is not one of those things. Your health care professionals are not given what they need. Bin liners to protect your staff? 5000 ICU beds? I hope for the sake of my British friends you will get to where you need to be.

 

I have high hopes seeing that Boris Johnson has, after pressure from NHS personnel, announced that testing will be massively ramped up.

 

Testing, identifying and isolating the carriers will be the way to control this virus.

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Logosone

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

No, it won't. Because you can't socially isolate forever. Eventually people will need to be allowed to go out of their house again. If that doesn't happen soon enough they will just do so out of themselves. And what do you think will happen when people go out after social isolation ends but the carriers have not been identified?

 

Self-isolation can not work in the long term. It is a short-term fix but not a long term fix.

 

The long-term fix is to identify the sick and carriers and to ISOLATE THEM. 

 

The WHO is telling you loud and clear:

 

"What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus, and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them," Mike Ryan said in an interview on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-who-ryan.html

 

Don't be like Boris. BE LIKE MIKE!

The long term fix will be a long time coming. Herd immunity will take effect long before that happens.