Italian coronavirus cases likely '10 times higher than reported'

[snoop1130]

Italian coronavirus cases likely '10 times higher than reported'

 

 

ROME (Reuters) - The number of cases of coronavirus in Italy is probably 10 times higher than the official tally of almost 64,000, the head of the agency that is collating the data said on Tuesday.

 

Latest figures show 6,077 people have died from the infection in barely a month, making Italy the worst-affected country in the world, with close to double the number of fatalities in China, where the virus emerged last year.

 

However, testing for the disease has often been limited to people seeking hospital care, meaning that thousands of cases have certainly gone undetected.

 

“A ratio of one certified case out of every 10 is credible,” Angelo Borrelli, the head of the Civil Protection Agency, told La Repubblica newspaper, indicating he believed as many as 640,000 people could have been infected in the country.

 

He said the biggest difficulty facing Italy was a shortage of masks and ventilators - a problem that has dogged the health system since the contagion first surfaced in the wealthy northern region of Lombardy on Feb. 21.

 

Italy is trying to import stocks from abroad, but Borrelli said nations like India, Romania, Russia and Turkey had halted such sales. “We are contacting the embassies, but I fear no more masks will be arriving from abroad,” he said.

 

The epidemic looks certain to leave Italy’s already fragile economy in tatters, with most businesses shuttered.

 

The government wants a bailout fund for member states of the shared euro currency to be deployed without restrictions - a demand that puts Rome at loggerheads with richer northern nations.

 

Currently, the so-called European Stability Mechanism (ESM) can help euro zone countries only on condition they adjust their economic policies to overcome the problems that led them to seek financial assistance.

 

But Deputy Economy Minister Antonio Misiani told Reuters the coronavirus emergency made such restrictions redundant.

 

“The only acceptable conditionality is that of using the ESM resources to manage the health and economic emergency,” he said, setting up a possible battle with Brussels over how best to emerge from the crisis.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-24

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[norfolkandchance]

European Unity. America, Russia and China providing much needed aid.

[Opl]

43 minutes ago, norfolkandchance said:

European Unity. America, Russia and China providing much needed aid.

YES, don't forget Cuba,  

 

[Thunder26]

It's been said over and over again, that it is impossible to track everyone. So every number of infected people should be multiplied by 10. If a country is not testing properly, then multiply by 20. Then you will have a better picture on the ground. 

[Thunder26]

1 hour ago, norfolkandchance said:

European Unity. America, Russia and China providing much needed aid.

Soon, they will be in need of aid. China will be struggling with the new wave soon. And I'm not joking.

[baansgr]

1 hour ago, norfolkandchance said:

European Unity. America, Russia and China providing much needed aid.

Chinese health workers are already liaison with Italian health workers, giving advice. 

[baansgr]

23 minutes ago, Opl said:

YES, don't forget Cuba,  

 

Castro stuck all HIV positives in a prison West of Cuba when I lived there...

[candide]

I guess the same may be true for all countries which don't follow an extensive testing policy like SK did. It likely includes the rest of Europe and the US.

[lannarebirth]

2 hours ago, baansgr said:

Castro stuck all HIV positives in a prison West of Cuba when I lived there...

 

Yeah, I saw that on 60 Minutes. It looked less like a prison than a hospital/resort.

[Deli]

I really like Italy. However, after WW 2 all of their Governments have failed and proofed to be totally unable to build and run the country.

Imbecilli, ma tutti.

[Katipo]

If those other 90% do have the virus, but it's not so serious that they require intensive care or similar, then coupled with the fact that new cases seem to be slowing down, then it's not all bad news. It shows that an even larger percentage of cases could be very mild. At the same time, it also shows we really do need to isolate ourselves as it is very contagious.

[UbonThani]

Good news really. Real death rate under 1% including aged and sick people.

 

Look at Aussie death rate. Real risk. Low.

[ChipButty]

cases of coronavirus in Italy is probably 10 times higher 

 

Same as Thailand

[mauGR1]

Hopefully we will reach the peak in the next few days, and then things will start to get better.

Probably young, healthy people will get all infected without suffering really bad symptoms.

[gk10002000]

I have been saying for months literally that of course many many more people have or had the virus and the mortality statistics were nutty and based only on the know tested positive cases.  Millions of people almost certainly had the virus and got over it with mild or no symptoms at all

[gk10002000]

21 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Good news really. Real death rate under 1% including aged and sick people.

 

Look at Aussie death rate. Real risk. Low.

good news yes.  Now the discussions on the need for all the lockdowns, was it worth damaging country economies, etc.  Millions of people out of work, business closed and so many small businesses will not be able to re open, massive unemployment, bills piling up, credit ratings wrecked etc.  I just came back from a local pizza joint here in Lyndhurst NJ on my way home from work.  Yes were are on lockdown, streets are deserted but I am luckily allowed to work since I am in the Defense industry and our plant is open.  Anyway the pizza guy lives in New York City and said he took the buses in and home and the last two days he was the only person on the bus.  And his place was not doing much business, no phone in orders, etc.  He and his delivery guy were just sitting around.  He normally has 4 people on his payroll.  Turano's pizza was pretty good.  I picked up the Medium Supreme. Good real sausages on it

[Canuck1966]

7 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

good news yes.  Now the discussions on the need for all the lockdowns, was it worth damaging country economies, etc.  Millions of people out of work, business closed and so many small businesses will not be able to re open, massive unemployment, bills piling up, credit ratings wrecked etc.  I just came back from a local pizza joint here in Lyndhurst NJ on my way home from work.  Yes were are on lockdown, streets are deserted but I am luckily allowed to work since I am in the Defense industry and our plant is open.  Anyway the pizza guy lives in New York City and said he took the buses in and home and the last two days he was the only person on the bus.  And his place was not doing much business, no phone in orders, etc.  He and his delivery guy were just sitting around.  He normally has 4 people on his payroll.  Turano's pizza was pretty good.  I picked up the Medium Supreme. Good real sausages on it

The alternative is economics and money over lives

It's not a very palatable option

[gk10002000]

4 minutes ago, Canuck1966 said:

The alternative is economics and money over lives

It's not a very palatable option

It is a numbers game.  Long term effects of shutdowns can be severe.  Many deaths will come due to stress, financial hardship, frustration, infanticide, people give up as they could not provide for their families, old people who had their retirement funds plummet now suffer, people can not pay or afford health insurance which leads to health issues, Education opportunities lost due to school closings, college delays, high paying job offers retracted since degree was not conferred, etc.  I do not like Pres Trump but I do agree with his statement : Don't want the effect of the cure to be worst than the disease" or something like that

Edited March 25, 2020 by gk10002000

[Canuck1966]

5 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

It is a numbers game.  Long term effects of shutdowns can be severe.  Many deaths will come due to stress, financial hardship, frustration, infanticide, people give up as they could not provide for their families, old people who had their retirement funds plummet now suffer, people can not pay or afford health insurance which leads to health issues, Education opportunities lost due to school closings, college delays, high paying job offers retracted since degree was not conferred, etc.  I do not like Pres Trump but I do agree with his statement : Don't want the effect of the cure to be worst than the disease" or something like that

It's an impossible balance to strike and leaders will rise/fall on their decisions, along with good or bad luck along the way.

The health care systems being overwhelmed while you herd immunise is a leader's main concern.

Coverage of dead bodies strewn everywhere will horrify nations

Edited March 25, 2020 by Canuck1966

[geriatrickid]

12 hours ago, norfolkandchance said:

European Unity. America, Russia and China providing much needed aid.

On the contrary. The US blocked all mask exports despite there being a supply agreement with Canada.

The UK blocked all mask exports despite  there being a  supply agreement.

The US blocked export of Tyvec used in PPE and disrupted the  supply that  had previously been guaranteed to Canada.

China is now selling ventilators to Canada and the USA.

 

It is every country for itself now.  

[geriatrickid]

Enough with this  herd immunity nonsense. The term is  being misused. It applies to vaccination.

There is no evidence that there is anything more than a short term immunity  and that is not good enough for this type of illness. When we are infected with other corona viruses we  are easily reinfected again.

The number of infected  who require hospitalization is just too high. It will paralyze an economy because workers will be getting ill frequently. The emotional toil from  chronic disease is heavy.

 

More importantly, a society that  readily  allows its  vulnerable  to be  killed off is not much of a society.

 

Italians did not take the appropriate social distancing measures to begin with. Then when the north was to  be locked down, selfish people fled  bringing the infection with them. They didn't self isolate for 14 days.

Much of this is a direct result of Italian stupidity and refusing to follow instructions. We are seeing it in the UK, USA and Canada too. people returning from out of the country refused to self isolate. They will infect and kill innocent people.

[norfolkandchance]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

On the contrary. The US blocked all mask exports despite there being a supply agreement with Canada.

The UK blocked all mask exports despite  there being a  supply agreement.

The US blocked export of Tyvec used in PPE and disrupted the  supply that  had previously been guaranteed to Canada.

China is now selling ventilators to Canada and the USA.

 

It is every country for itself now.  

When did I mention masks. There are many flights into Italy from these nations bringing in aid.

[Ventenio]

We need to assume the entire world will get this at one time.  like the flu, but now it's killing at an alarming rate.  

 

just stay safe for the next few months.  soon there will be medicine.  

 

corona is much worse on your computer.  once you go exercise, the fear of corona goes away.  where i'm at, i can stay 10 meters from everyone for hours when outside.  

Edited March 25, 2020 by Ventenio

[Chazar]

3 hours ago, Deli said:

I really like Italy. However, after WW 2 all of their Governments have failed and proofed to be totally unable to build and run the country.

Imbecilli, ma tutti.

great ice  cream though..............mmmmmmmmmmmm fragola

[Iron Tongue]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

Italians did not take the appropriate social distancing measures to begin with. Then when the north was to  be locked down, selfish people fled  bringing the infection with them. They didn't self isolate for 14 days.

Much of this is a direct result of Italian stupidity and refusing to follow instructions. We are seeing it in the UK, USA and Canada too. people returning from out of the country refused to self isolate. They will infect and kill innocent people.

Yep.

 

The Italians knew about covid-19 but attitude was to not let this change their lifestyle.  Travel, go to cafes, clubbing, soccer matches, and then family dinner with parents & grandparents on weekend.  Even after the devastation done to the north, they had to deploy troops to S. Italy because people still can't follow isolation orders.

Italians likely brought covid-19 to the E. Coast of US as well as S. America.

[tomazbodner]

This would have been good news. If 10x more people are infected, that means that the virus is 10x less deadly than official numbers would suggest.

[Opl]

21 minutes ago, Iron Tongue said:

Yep.

 

The Italians knew about covid-19 but attitude was to not let this change their lifestyle.  Travel, go to cafes, clubbing, soccer matches, and then family dinner with parents & grandparents on weekend.  Even after the devastation done to the north, they had to deploy troops to S. Italy because people still can't follow isolation orders.

Italians likely brought covid-19 to the E. Coast of US as well as S. America.

Consider New York as your  Bergamo (Italy) from 6 weeks ago , and see how it all works out live... 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Opl

[Logosone]

12 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

 

There is no evidence that there is anything more than a short term immunity  and that is not good enough for this type of illness. When we are infected with other corona viruses we  are easily reinfected again.

The number of infected  who require hospitalization is just too high. It will paralyze an economy because workers will be getting ill frequently. The emotional toil from  chronic disease is heavy.

 

More importantly, a society that  readily  allows its  vulnerable  to be  killed off is not much of a society.

 

Italians did not take the appropriate social distancing measures to begin with. Then when the north was to  be locked down, selfish people fled  bringing the infection with them. They didn't self isolate for 14 days.

Much of this is a direct result of Italian stupidity and refusing to follow instructions. We are seeing it in the UK, USA and Canada too. people returning from out of the country refused to self isolate. They will infect and kill innocent people.

There is plenty of evidence that immunity is the general rule after infection.

 

"Prof Jon Cohen, emeritus professor of infectious diseases at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, said: 

“However, it is very likely, based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/the-big-question-over-coronavirus-can-a-person-get-it-twice

 

Isolated exceptions don't invalidate the general rule.

 

Italians are not stupid, they did do social distancing, but it's not very useful. Only when Italy started testing in large numbers, identifying and isolating the infected were they able to get the cases under control.

 

However, testing and isolating is probably not feasible for most countries due to the number of infected. Herd immunity is going to be the reason the virus stops spreading. Most countries will be unable to stop it through their own efforts.

[snowballthecat]

On 3/25/2020 at 9:30 AM, geriatrickid said:

Enough with this  herd immunity nonsense. The term is  being misused. It applies to vaccination.

There is no evidence that there is anything more than a short term immunity  and that is not good enough for this type of illness. When we are infected with other corona viruses we  are easily reinfected again.

The number of infected  who require hospitalization is just too high. It will paralyze an economy because workers will be getting ill frequently. The emotional toil from  chronic disease is heavy.

 

More importantly, a society that  readily  allows its  vulnerable  to be  killed off is not much of a society.

 

Italians did not take the appropriate social distancing measures to begin with. Then when the north was to  be locked down, selfish people fled  bringing the infection with them. They didn't self isolate for 14 days.

Much of this is a direct result of Italian stupidity and refusing to follow instructions. We are seeing it in the UK, USA and Canada too. people returning from out of the country refused to self isolate. They will infect and kill innocent people.

 

Italy took the appropriate social distancing measures, but unfortunately, it was too late, two weeks late according to some virologists....

Being the main hotbed the football match Atalanta-Valencia hold in San Siro, Milan, sometime last Feb.

The current premier is a bit weak, he does not belongs to any political party.

Aid is arriving from China, Russia and Cuba. Very wellcome!

Desperate need of ventilators. 

But the way is self-sourcing, each Italian abroad, right now, is phoning and searching equipment wherever. 

Also starting to manufacture in Italy.  This is the way, in my view. 

Make your own. 

Thanks for all your comments.

 

 

[Opl]

On 3/25/2020 at 5:23 AM, tomazbodner said:

This would have been good news. If 10x more people are infected, that means that the virus is 10x less deadly than official numbers would suggest.

Quote from the link shared below " Coronavirus is the Ebola of the rich and requires a coordinated transnational effort. It is not particularly lethal, but it is very contagious. The more medicalized and centralized the society, the more widespread the virus. "

Western health care systems have been built around the concept of patient-centered care, but an epidemic requires a change of perspective toward a concept of community-centered care.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/health-workers-hospitals-coronavirus-147398