Wake up guys!

[cornishcarlos]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

Meanwhile Neil Ferguson has said the lockdown will last at least until June in the UK

 

Absolutely no chance of keeping the public locked down till June... Not without major casualties, which would kind of defeat the purpose of the lock down !!

[473geo]

3 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Absolutely no chance of keeping the public locked down till June... Not without major casualties, which would kind of defeat the purpose of the lock down !!

Well if it takes say another 2 weeks to peak, 2 weeks to level, off 4 weeks ease down is not inconceivable

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Absolutely no chance of keeping the public locked down till June... Not without major casualties, which would kind of defeat the purpose of the lock down !!

Exactly. What I don't get is that in Ferguson's paper he says at least 12 to 18 months is required for the lockdown to work.

 

Now it's two months. He changes his tune more than Robbie Williams.

 

I totally agree, that a lockdown in the long term is bound to fail.

 

"Angry crowds rioted near the Chinese city of Wuhan"

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162773/Chinas-coronavirus-epicentre-Wuhan-lifts-lockdown-travel-restrictions-time-two-months.html

 

If the Chinese don't do it without showing their displeasure, I'd like to see how the British and German populace will react.

[cornishcarlos]

9 minutes ago, 473geo said:

Well if it takes say another 2 weeks to peak, 2 weeks to level, off 4 weeks ease down is not inconceivable

 

That might be the time scale for the virus but I don't think the public will stay locked up for 8 weeks... There will be major riots before then I would think ?? Maybe be wrong and everyone just gets on with it !! Who knows 

[473geo]

11 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

That might be the time scale for the virus but I don't think the public will stay locked up for 8 weeks... There will be major riots before then I would think ?? Maybe be wrong and everyone just gets on with it !! Who knows 

Where are the public going to go, unless they do something like let the kids back to school, and under 60s back to work

 

 

[Logosone]

Bad news for social distancing rapturists. They've been doing it all wrong.

 

MIT study shows that 8 m is required, not 1.5 or 2 m.

 

Chinese study shows Covid19 virus is stronger than influenza virus and can survive in warm swimming pool.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162697/Social-distancing-EIGHT-metres-avoid-coronavirus-risk.html

 

[Olmate]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Exactly. What I don't get is that in Ferguson's paper he says at least 12 to 18 months is required for the lockdown to work.

 

Now it's two months. He changes his tune more than Robbie Williams.

 

I totally agree, that a lockdown in the long term is bound to fail.

 

"Angry crowds rioted near the Chinese city of Wuhan"

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162773/Chinas-coronavirus-epicentre-Wuhan-lifts-lockdown-travel-restrictions-time-two-months.html

 

If the Chinese don't do it without showing their displeasure, I'd like to see how the British and German populace will react.

Or Ozzie’s, ABC news this arvo, did you see the old chap  just back into  Aust setting up in an Ibis backpacker hotel,smaller than my dunny,bunks and all and with 14 days to go.This Scomo is a control freak unhinged now with no sitting parliament for next 5 months!

[Logosone]

These lockdown social distancing policies have brought untold sorrow on people, that story of the Russian woman and her son is also outrageous.

 

But good news:

 

On 26 March, Robert Bosch GmbH announced it had developed a new Covid-19 test system, which could diagnose whether a patient was infected in less than 2.5 hours instead of days and could be run automatically at the point of care. According to Bosch, the test would be available in Germany in April and could check for 10 respiratory pathogens simultaneously with an accuracy of more than 95%.

 

Soon in a pharmacy near you.

[cornishcarlos]

2 hours ago, 473geo said:

Where are the public going to go, unless they do something like let the kids back to school, and under 60s back to work

 

 

 

Exactly that... Healthy people back to work. Vulnerable and tested positive I to isolation... You've nailed it 

[CG1 Blue]

10 hours ago, christophe75 said:

Plus, how many of those old 27000 victims would have died anyway during the year ?

This is a valid point. I was listening to a discussion today around the importance of distinguishing between people who have died 'of' Covid 19, and people who have died 'with' Covid 19. There must be many for whom the virus simply fast forwarded their deaths by a few days or weeks.  

 

Not that this makes the situation any less sad. 

[CG1 Blue]

11 hours ago, Logosone said:

I'm sure the infection rate is indeed much higher than we know. 

 

Yes, things have been dramatic in Italy, the worst affected country of all, over 10000 people have died.

 

And yet Italy has by far the strictest social distancing rules of any country on earth.

 

What does that tell you?

For Italy I gather the virus was able to spread rapidly under the radar, before it's citizens knew of the threat. The typically tactile Italian people with all the hugging and kissing were the perfect vessels for helping the virus to spread. Their social distancing came later, by which time it was too late. 

[Logosone]

Exactly.

 

Just like the identified cases are not all cases the patient zeros are not the real patient zeros.

 

Nothing is what it seems with this virus. Isn't it odd how we, that think we are the smartest animals on earth are being tricked and outsmarted by an entity so small it's only visible under a lab conditions?

 

If there are ten million viruses in one drop of water, maybe the viruses are the secret rulers of this planet.

 

Whatever we do, it looks like this virus is always a step ahead. Like it does whatever it wants. Like it's invincible.

 

And it is. Even if we get this wave under control, there will be further waves. He will never go away.

 

Unless he wants to.

[Logosone]

I can just see the highly decorated OBE recipient Dr Ferguson with his Oxford Diploma on the wall, furiously calculating all variables, all the available data calculated in complex mathematical formulas, trying to predict the best way to stop the virus. Discussing his findings with his fellow Doctors and agreeing on a thought out strategy, satisfied he has done everything, thought of everything. Presenting it to the head of government.

 

And on goes the tiniest of tiny of entities. Unstoppable. Invincible. Outsmarting the Doctor at every turn. Invalidating his paper and models. Doing whatever it wants. Conquering 200 countries in the space of 3 months.

 

So tiny. So much smarter.

 

 

[Brunolem]

10 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

For Italy I gather the virus was able to spread rapidly under the radar, before it's citizens knew of the threat. The typically tactile Italian people with all the hugging and kissing were the perfect vessels for helping the virus to spread. Their social distancing came later, by which time it was too late. 

And locking them down made things worse, because infected people were told to remain inside with other, not yet infected, members of their family.

 

 

[Logosone]

So the excellent study which proved that the virus was not man-made also postulated that the virus has been around for a while BEFORE the Wuhan market event was possible.

 

This is because a specific receptor in the virus is specifically adapted for humans, unlike the bat version of the virus which is not. So there must have been 'adaption to humans. This means the virus would have spread some time before Wuhan ever happened. That was just the first time the virus was noticed. No wonder lockdown was not useful in China.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Edited March 30, 2020 by Logosone

[Brunolem]

Here is another right on spot analysis...

 

http://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=20136

 

[Logosone]

If you could post the gist would be great, the link does not open.

[tifino]

19 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If you could post the gist would be great, the link does not open.

it works with Brave...

here's 1st and last paragraphs.

and see it is just another Forum site 

 (and they want donations) ???? 

[Logosone]

Interesting, not with Chrome or Firefox. I'm definitely downloading Brave.

 

 

[Tagged]

55 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Here is another right on spot analysis...

 

http://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=20136

 

It is different between panic and being wise. We see now in many countries, they have to postphone critical surgeries, because of corona demanding all of its resourches, just to handle one single thing, critical corona sick. Im not in panic, im not worried about me, Im worried about those who need help. Nothing else, and the last thing I would do, oppose my government, and rather obey for this single case, and help out the way I can, and that is to stay a F home.

 

If everybody do that, well we get back to normal faster, and can get the society up and rolling again as normal. The longer people F up, the longer will the shut down be! Not hard to understand. Quit simple. 

 

It doesnt mean you panic, it doesnt mean you are scared, it doesnt mean you are a sheep, it is just for this single cause. 
 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Tagged

[Brunolem]

16 minutes ago, Tagged said:

It is different between panic and being wise. We see now in many countries, they have to postphone critical surgeries, because of corona demanding all of its resourches, just to handle one single thing, critical corona sick. Im not in panic, im not worried about me, Im worried about those who need help. Nothing else, and the last thing I would do, oppose my government, and rather obey for this single case, and help out the way I can, and that is to stay a F home.

 

If everybody do that, well we get back to normal faster, and can get the society up and rolling again as normal. The longer people F up, the longer will the shut down be! Not hard to understand. Quit simple. 

 

It doesnt mean you panic, it doesnt mean you are scared, it doesnt mean you are a sheep, it is just for this single cause. 
 

You imply that all governments follow the same policies and impose the same restrictions on their populations, but this is not true...at all!

 

Some governments, notably in Western Europe, have gone into full panic mode, locking down their whole populations, and in return getting the worst results.

 

Some governments have searched for the right balance, notably in Asia (see the example of Singapore described by another member), and are getting the best results.

 

Following the latter is being wise, while following the former is being a lemming...

 

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, Tagged said:

It is different between panic and being wise. We see now in many countries, they have to postphone critical surgeries, because of corona demanding all of its resourches, just to handle one single thing, critical corona sick. Im not in panic, im not worried about me, Im worried about those who need help. Nothing else, and the last thing I would do, oppose my government, and rather obey for this single case, and help out the way I can, and that is to stay a F home.

 

If everybody do that, well we get back to normal faster, and can get the society up and rolling again as normal. The longer people F up, the longer will the shut down be! Not hard to understand. Quit simple. 

 

It doesnt mean you panic, it doesnt mean you are scared, it doesnt mean you are a sheep, it is just for this single cause. 
 

There'a a lot of panic and fear going on, but not much wisdom.

 

You're right that operations have been cancelled in the UK for 3 months for instance, so that 30,000 beds can be put aside for Covid19.  Of course what that means is that care for those with critical conditions other than Covid19 will be greatly impaired. Already some people can not get an operation that they need. So if this period of time is extended until June or say for 12 or 18 months, as the social distancer in General Neil Ferguson has decreed, then there is a strong likelihood that due to the impaired care for non-Covid19 sufferers over this longer period of time the number of additional deaths of people who have critical conditions unrelated to Covid 19 will be increased. And for what benefit if doctors can not save a lot of Covid19 patients, no therapy, no vaccine, no key materials? All they do is intubate and watch them die by all accounts.

 

We will of course not get back to normal faster if we self-isolate for 12 or 18 months. We would get back to normal much faster if we do not social-distance. The reason that is not being done is just not to overwhelm health workers. Nobody even expects they will be able to do much for Covid19 patients of 81 year old who would have died anyway.

 

You talk about wisdom. Wouldn't it be wise to first determine if your governments course of action is the correct one before you obey it? Why slavishly obey something that is wrong?

[Tagged]

37 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

You imply that all governments follow the same policies and impose the same restrictions on their populations, but this is not true...at all!

 

Some governments, notably in Western Europe, have gone into full panic mode, locking down their whole populations, and in return getting the worst results.

 

Some governments have searched for the right balance, notably in Asia (see the example of Singapore described by another member), and are getting the best results.

 

Following the latter is being wise, while following the former is being a lemming...

 

There was somebody who mentioned earlier each country have different risk potential than others. 

 

Why is Thailand not infected at same rate as Europeen countries? Is it because of handshaking, kissing, ? Clima? Or as you and more mention, sick and healthy people are put together? There is so many factors we do not know yet, but for Norway, almost complete lock down have in fact worked so far. Only 25 dead, and it is older sick people. 

 

When looked at sweeden, right now, they are at 110. Norway are half population. 

 

 

Well, as someone said, it doesnt match up the numbers just to measure the population, and brake up numbers as percent. 

 

Usa,  900 to go, and same deathrate as China, but passed in numbers of infected. 

 

The good thing about this discussion, we will know in few months what will happens. But still sure we will discuss the same, even numbers will be at table. 

 

A mild heads up for what can come in near future. Hopefully we will learn something. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Tagged

[Tagged]

30 minutes ago, Logosone said:

There'a a lot of panic and fear going on, but not much wisdom.

 

You're right that operations have been cancelled in the UK for 3 months for instance, so that 30,000 beds can be put aside for Covid19.  Of course what that means is that care for those with critical conditions other than Covid19 will be greatly impaired. Already some people can not get an operation that they need. So if this period of time is extended until June or say for 12 or 18 months,

I was talking about bying time, by complete lock down, and then open slowly. Thats what China have done, that is what Norway is doing as well. Quite simular model, and if every country reacted the same way, we could have avoided the dramatic numbers of infected , and more likely managed to come back to normal quicker. 

 

And Im not saying every government do it right, it is just when something is decided, people have to follow up! It doesnt help if Thailand, the country I am at now, that people do not follow up, and hell brakes loose with army posts at every corner. Do we want same situation as spain? Thailand have given a soft warning havent they? 

 

Still I see pics of falangs who do not give a F, and do what they want. Is that good for you and me if you living here as me? 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Tagged

[Brunolem]

2 minutes ago, Tagged said:

I was talking about bying time, by complete lock down, and then open slowly. Thats what China have done, that is what Norway is doing as well. Quite simular model, and if every country reacted the same way, we could have avoided the dramatic numbers of infected , and more likely managed to come back to noraml quicker. 

 

And Im not saying every government do it right, it is just when something is decided, people have to follow up! It doesnt help if Thailand the country I am at now, people do not follow up, and hell brakes loose with army posts at every corner. Do we want same situation as spain? Thailand have given a soft warning havent they? 

 

Still I see pics of falangs who do not give a F, and do what they want. Is that good for you and me if you living here as me? 

You are right about that.

I imagine these farangs are mostly concentrated in places like Pattaya or Phuket, which are a magnet for these types...

 

Personally I respect the restrictions imposed in Thailand because I find them reasonable.

 

I hope Thailand is taking advice more from Singapore than from Italy...

 

[mauGR1]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And locking them down made things worse, because infected people were told to remain inside with other, not yet infected, members of their family.

 

 

Yesterday i watched an interview with an Italian doctor, basically what he said, is that Vitamin D can fight successfully against the virus.

From google:

A human body produces vitamin D as a response to sun exposure. A person can also boost their vitamin D intake through certain foods or supplements.

Vitamin D is essential for several reasons, including maintaining healthy bones and teeth. It may also protect against a range of diseases and conditions, such as type 1 diabetes.

Despite its name, vitamin D is not a vitamin, but a prohormone, or precursor of a hormone.

Vitamins are nutrients that the body cannot create, and so a person must consume them in the diet. However, the body can produce vitamin D.

In this article, we look at the benefits of vitamin D, what happens to the body when people do not get enough, and how to boost vitamin D intake.

 

 

Benefits

 

During sun exposure, a person’s body produces vitamin D.

Vitamin D has multiple roles in the body. It assists in:

• promoting healthy bones and teeth
• supporting immune, brain, and nervous system health
• regulating insulin levels and supporting diabetes management
• supporting lung function and cardiovascular health
• influencing the expression of genes involved in cancer development

...So, apparently, locking the people indoors, you deprive them of Vitamin D, just saying..

 

[Logosone]

28 minutes ago, Tagged said:

I was talking about bying time, by complete lock down, and then open slowly. Thats what China have done, that is what Norway is doing as well. Quite simular model, and if every country reacted the same way, we could have avoided the dramatic numbers of infected , and more likely managed to come back to noraml quicker. 

 

And Im not saying every government do it right, it is just when something is decided, people have to follow up! It doesnt help if Thailand the country I am at now, people do not follow up, and hell brakes loose with army posts at every corner. Do we want same situation as spain? Thailand have given a soft warning havent they? 

 

Still I see pics of falangs who do not give a F, and do what they want. Is that good for you and me if you living here as me? 

You're right, a lock down at the beginning would have made sense, it would have avoided the dramatic numbers. But now that the virus has spread widely, that logic is becoming very flimsy.

 

China did not just lockdown. China used a variety of intervention measures simultaneously, including testing, identifying and isolating the infected, clinical management and restrictions of mobility. Chinese studies have not been able to determine how much of a reduction in transmission is to be attributed to each measure. So, basically there are three main measures:

 

1. Testing, identifying and isolating the infected

2. Clinical management of infected cases

3. Restrictions on movement

 

What if, it is 1 and 2 that are by far the most effective methods, and 3 only provides very small benefits? Why focus on that measure and not on the other two?

 

China is not a success story btw, it has one of the highest mortality rates. It remains to be seen what future waves will bring. In a way China is to blame for this social distancing focus.

 

What if it what was decided, ie restrictions on travel, social distancing, was wrong? What if taking the fight to the virus by testing and isolating is much more successful? Why follow a wrong decision? Personally I think the focus is on social distancing because it's much easier to set up a road block than to test, find and isolate the infected. The UK only focused on it because it had no test kits, so the testing and isolating option was not available to them.

 

Yes, the Thai request so far has been less draconian than it could be, but the restrictions are still very harsh. A lot of Thai business, owned by your fellow Thais, will go bankrupt and will never return. Have you thought about the catastrophic economic cost of the lockdown?

 

Yes, Farangs not wearing masks might be to your benefit, as it is more likely that herd immunity will set in in Thailand before mass testing would ever stop the virus, and social distancing can not stop the virus. The sooner everyone gets herd immunity the better it will be.  Obviously relying on the Thai government to test, identify and isolate all the infected is useless, as they have shown they are not able to do that.

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

The lockdown duration in the UK was just ramped up to six months

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/uk-coronavirus-restrictions-could-last-six-months-deputy-chief-medical-officer

 

They'll do this until they hit 12 or 18 months most likely, as Ferguson suggested in his paper.

[Tagged]

41 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

 

Yes, the Thai request so far has been less draconian than it could be, but the restrictions are still very harsh. A lot of Thai business, owned by your fellow Thais, will go bankrupt and will never return. Have you thought about the catastrophic economic cost of the lockdown?

 

Yes, Farangs not wearing masks might be to your benefit, as it is more likely that herd immunity will set in in Thailand before mass testing would ever stop the virus, and social distancing can not stop the virus. The sooner everyone gets herd immunity the better it will be.  Obviously relying on the Thai government to test, identify and isolate all the infected is useless, as they have shown they are not able to do that.

 

 

 

For your catastrophip economic cost, I will say it is a mild reminder for our sick economic system, that we can not forget it will come bad times, that will put our system on test. In my lifetime, I have now experienced 3 cracks, this is the last one. First time just finished army, starting establishing me with job, house, gf. Second time a new company, and this time as well, a new company. The difference this time from before, I have a large buffer, and I expected it. Not a virus, but I expected a new crack coming shortly in few years. 

 

As we should expect the virus take human life, we should also expect the virus to set us back on the economic side. No doubt about it will hurt, but we will manage, and we should learn from it. 

 

Every country should be more sustainable from catastrophes like this, and not live day by day thinking what we have today will last forever, and take if granted. 

 

Humans will always experience growth and wealty times, and set backs. Nature law. There is no quick fix to that. 

 

I do not believe in mask, if not you self  is sick, and know how to use the mask not to transfer the virus to others. 

 

But for me it was a relief to put the mask on, so I did not have to see all the fear and anger behind the mask people I met, so therefor I use a mask. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Tagged

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

The lockdown duration in the UK was just ramped up to six months

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/uk-coronavirus-restrictions-could-last-six-months-deputy-chief-medical-officer

 

They'll do this until they hit 12 or 18 months most likely, as Ferguson suggested in his paper.

There will be civil unrest, or more, long before that...