Wake up guys!

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Tagged said:

For your catastrophip economic cost, I will say it is a mild reminder for our sick economic system, that we can not forget it will come bad times, that will put our system on test. In my lifetime, I have now experienced 3 cracks, this is the last one. First time just finished army, starting establishing me with job, house, gf. Second time a new company, and this time as well, a new company. The difference this time from before, I have a large buffer, and I expected it. Not a virus, but I expected a new crack coming shortly in few years. 

 

As we should expect the virus take human life, we should also expect the virus to set us back on the economic side. No doubt about it will hurt, but we will manage, and we should learn from it. 

 

Every country should be more sustainable from catastrophes like this, and not live day by day thinking what we have today will last forever, and take if granted. 

 

Humans will always experience growth and wealty times, and set backs. Nature law. There is no quick fix to that. 

 

I do not believe in mask, if not you self  is sick, and know how to use the mask not to transfer the virus to others. 

 

But for me it was a relief to put the mask on, so I did not have to see all the fear and anger behind the mask people I met, so therefor I use a mask. 

I was also expecting this economic disaster, along with many others, and I had prepared myself accordingly...notably by settling down in a small village in Thailand, and by being completely out of the financial markets.

 

Yet, I must say I had not taken into account the eventuality of the world, or at least large parts of it, losing its marbles and making the economic disaster far worse than it could have been.

 

Now I am expecting civil unrest and violence in many countries (already in the suburbs of France), that could degenerate into something much bigger...and I hope that this other kind of "virus" will not spread around the world.

 

A major war involving the world number one warmonger is also to be expected.

 

Right now we are following in the steps of the 1930s...and we know where they lead...

[Tagged]

@Brunolem

 

I had to aggree with you on this one. It might lead to something bigger out of our hands. And for you and me, foreigners in rural district in Thailand. What is your plan? Heading out before to late, or waiting it out? 

 

 

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

The lockdown duration in the UK was just ramped up to six months

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/uk-coronavirus-restrictions-could-last-six-months-deputy-chief-medical-officer

 

They'll do this until they hit 12 or 18 months most likely, as Ferguson suggested in his paper.

There's no need for such long periods. All that's needed is to bring the R0 below 1. What there is, is a need for each individual to be alert and have their brain switched on all the time. Unfortunately, if that is too much to ask, the only choice then is enforced lockdown.

Edited March 30, 2020 by DrTuner

[Olmate]

4 hours ago, Brunolem said:

You are right about that.

I imagine these farangs are mostly concentrated in places like Pattaya or Phuket, which are a magnet for these types...

 

Personally I respect the restrictions imposed in Thailand because I find them reasonable.

 

I hope Thailand is taking advice more from Singapore than from Italy...

 

“Imagine all the people”! Cheezus ????

[Brunolem]

14 minutes ago, Tagged said:

@Brunolem

 

I had to aggree with you on this one. It might lead to something bigger out of our hands. And for you and me, foreigners in rural district in Thailand. What is your plan? Heading out before to late, or waiting it out? 

 

 

At this point you have to make a judgment call.

 

I am married to a Thai, I have a Thai child, and I have been here for more than 20 years...so I have become part of the landscape.

 

On top of that, I don't see social unrest coming to Thailand, at least not to Isaan, if they keep navigating the crisis as they have until now.

 

Looking at the big picture, I have always considered East Asia, along with some South American countries, as the best place to withstand the incoming tsunami, which I have been expecting for years.

 

Of course, if the West goes at war with China later on...a likely possibility...things could become hot around here...but at that stage, there won't be much safe places left...

 

 

 

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, Tagged said:

For your catastrophip economic cost, I will say it is a mild reminder for our sick economic system, that we can not forget it will come bad times, that will put our system on test. In my lifetime, I have now experienced 3 cracks, this is the last one. First time just finished army, starting establishing me with job, house, gf. Second time a new company, and this time as well, a new company. The difference this time from before, I have a large buffer, and I expected it. Not a virus, but I expected a new crack coming shortly in few years. 

Yes, this is my fourth blip, got hit in 2000 and 2008 and got wiser. The silver lining, one could hope, is that people will start saving for the rainy day again, something that's been completely forgotten for decades.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

There's no need for such long periods. All that's needed is to bring the R0 below 1. What there is, is a need for each individual to be alert and have their brain switched on all the time. Unfortunately, if that is too much to ask, the only choice then is enforced lockdown.

That's what I've been saying. But you may want to tell that to Neil Ferguson, remember the infernal flawed paper from hell which is the whole blueprint for the madness says:

 

"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more).

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[Brunolem]

20 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's what I've been saying. But you may want to tell that to Neil Ferguson, remember the infernal flawed paper from hell which is the whole blueprint for the madness says:

 

"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more).

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Not to throw cold water here, but there are actually around 25 vaccines available, and none of them is against a coronavirus. 

 

In other words, coronaviruses, not only the actual one, have proved to be very tough nuts to crack until now. 

 

There is no reason to believe that this is going to change overnight because we say so... 

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Not to throw cold water here, but there are actually around 25 vaccines available, and none of them is against a coronavirus. 

 

In other words, coronaviruses, not only the actual one, have proved to be very tough nuts to crack until now. 

 

There is no reason to believe that this is going to change overnight because we say so... 

It's a fair point, there's been no vaccine for HIV, but for Covid19 it should easier to find a vaccine. It's a not stealth virus and few mutations. Plus resources will be thrown at it no end. So it could happen, and maybe sooner than 18 months, who knows.

 

Still, to expect social distancing for 12 months or 18 months is highly optimistic. 

[Tagged]

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It's a fair point, there's been no vaccine for HIV, but for Covid19 it should easier to find a vaccine. It's a not stealth virus and few mutations. Plus resources will be thrown at it no end. So it could happen, and maybe sooner than 18 months, who knows.

 

Still, to expect social distancing for 12 months or 18 months is highly optimistic. 

Soon, they will have several vaccines, if not already. It is the testing that takes time.

 

The general stages is

• Exploratory stage
• Pre-clinical stage
• Clinical development
• Regulatory review and approval
• Manufacturing
• Quality control

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/basics/test-approve.html

[CG1 Blue]

41 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It's a fair point, there's been no vaccine for HIV, but for Covid19 it should easier to find a vaccine. It's a not stealth virus and few mutations. Plus resources will be thrown at it no end. So it could happen, and maybe sooner than 18 months, who knows.

Wrt finding a vaccine, it seems the UK government are more than doing their bit. I realise this is a UK gov link (so might be biased), but I can't find any source disputing it: 

 

 

The race to find a vaccine for coronavirus will be boosted by £210 million of new UK aid funding, the Prime Minister announced today (26th March) following a virtual summit of G20 leaders.

To date, this is the largest single contribution by any country to the key international fund to find a coronavirus vaccine.

CEPI has announced that it requires $2 billion additional funding from international governments to develop the crucial vaccine. If all G20 governments pledged $100 million funding this shortfall would be met instantly. The UK has already gone beyond its share by committing £250 million to CEPI to date, and the UK is asking all governments to contribute to this important international goal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-announces-record-funding-to-find-a-coronavirus-vaccine

 

 

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Wrt finding a vaccine, it seems the UK government are more than doing their bit. I realise this is a UK gov link (so might be biased), but I can't find any source disputing it: 

 

 

The race to find a vaccine for coronavirus will be boosted by £210 million of new UK aid funding, the Prime Minister announced today (26th March) following a virtual summit of G20 leaders.

To date, this is the largest single contribution by any country to the key international fund to find a coronavirus vaccine.

CEPI has announced that it requires $2 billion additional funding from international governments to develop the crucial vaccine. If all G20 governments pledged $100 million funding this shortfall would be met instantly. The UK has already gone beyond its share by committing £250 million to CEPI to date, and the UK is asking all governments to contribute to this important international goal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-announces-record-funding-to-find-a-coronavirus-vaccine

 

 

Interesting. This is CEPI: https://cepi.net/

[Logosone]

23 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Wrt finding a vaccine, it seems the UK government are more than doing their bit. I realise this is a UK gov link (so might be biased), but I can't find any source disputing it: 

 

 

The race to find a vaccine for coronavirus will be boosted by £210 million of new UK aid funding, the Prime Minister announced today (26th March) following a virtual summit of G20 leaders.

To date, this is the largest single contribution by any country to the key international fund to find a coronavirus vaccine.

CEPI has announced that it requires $2 billion additional funding from international governments to develop the crucial vaccine. If all G20 governments pledged $100 million funding this shortfall would be met instantly. The UK has already gone beyond its share by committing £250 million to CEPI to date, and the UK is asking all governments to contribute to this important international goal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-announces-record-funding-to-find-a-coronavirus-vaccine

 

 

Absolutely, excellent work being done in the UK. It's a veritable world race to develop the vaccine. Lots of countries are doing excellent work, also on producing fast tests.

 

It's one thing to produce another vaccine, another to produce one that works. For swine flu, the vaccine works 50% of the time only. And that's an influenza virus.

 

Regarding the UK's contribution to CEPI, it's good the UK has started to contribute something, after the body was founded  by a consortium that included the governments of Norway, Japan, and Germany, The Wellcome Trust, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation the UK initially didn't join and didn't contribute anything. After many countries contributed hundreds of millions of dollars for years, it is absolutely right the UK should start contributing. 

 

It's nice that in times of need the UK has had a change of heart on this. The EU's and Germany's 740 million US$ will probably also help.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Epidemic_Preparedness_Innovations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Logosone

[DrTuner]

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

For swine flue, the vaccine works 50% of the time only. And that's an influenza virus.

50% would still bring down the R0 a lot. But there's the usual caveat with vaccines: When they are rolled out in mass vaccinations, there could be individuals with allergies or other underlying conditions who react badly. I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.

[Logosone]

48 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

50% would still bring down the R0 a lot. But there's the usual caveat with vaccines: When they are rolled out in mass vaccinations, there could be individuals with allergies or other underlying conditions who react badly. I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.

Will it really matter though, if this virus continues its unprecedented spread, won't so many people be infected that herd immunity will be achieved without a vaccine?

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

Will it really matter though, if this virus continues its unprecedented spread, won't so many people be infected that herd immunity will be achieved without a vaccine?

Hard to say. Herd immunity is also a local thing, remember those remote amazon tribes that got wiped out when explorers found them?

 

One strategy would be to surround yourself with layers of those that have already had COVID-19 and presumably have immunity. Could possibly work for somebody evil and wealthy enough.

[Tagged]

44 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Will it really matter though, if this virus continues its unprecedented spread, won't so many people be infected that herd immunity will be achieved without a vaccine?

Yes, it does, because of the speed of infencted who occupie critical resourches, we need for other critical patients. 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Tagged

[Logosone]

Unfortunately resources are finite, they're not infinite.

 

So if you cancel all operations for 3 months and give 30,000 beds to Covid 19 patients, those beds are not available to non-Covid 19 patients that are criticial. Already we are seeing non-Covid19 patients being shipped literally out to sea on a ship, in New York. What kind of compromised care they will get is anyone's guess.

 

The longer the social distancing is done to drag out the impaired compromised care of non-Covid19 patients, the more deaths of criticial Covid19 patients we will see.

 

And by all accounts even American doctors are just intubating the Covid19 patients and watching them die, no therapy, no vaccine, no materials, no real anything that could make a difference for those unfortunate plus 80 year olds who are seriously affected by Covid19.

 

In China 20% of Covid 19 patients needed hospital care. If we do end up say 20 or 30 million people infected, as some models have suggested, just imagine how hospital could cope. They couldn't.

[DrTuner]

37 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And by all accounts even American doctors are just intubating the Covid19 patients and watching them die, no therapy, no vaccine, no materials, no real anything that could make a difference for those unfortunate plus 80 year olds who are seriously affected by Covid19.

If it gets bad enough soon we'll see this:

 

[Logosone]

What is happening is probably a lot worse than that, that looks almost idyllic by comparison of the stories doctors are telling in the media.

 

Imagine being a doctor and not have any weapons that really make a difference, and being told to go in this fight.

[DrTuner]

I think we have a guinea pig for herd immunity: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-belarus-alexander-lukashenko-vodka-sauna-countryside-tractors-a9434426.html

 

Quote

“You should drink the equivalent of 40-50ml of rectified spirit daily. But not at work.”

Mr Lukashenko advised repeated visits to the sauna, or banya, followed by up to 100ml of vodka.

“Go to the banya. Two or three times a week will do you good,” he said.

“When you come out of the sauna, not only wash your hands, but also your insides with 100 millilitres [of vodka].”

 

Vodka, sauna and football. In Finland football was replaced by drinking tar ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_tar ). Can't play in -38 DegC. That was in the 1800's I think. 

 

I suppose this goes down well together with it:

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by DrTuner

[richard_smith237]

4 hours ago, DrTuner said:

50% would still bring down the R0 a lot. But there's the usual caveat with vaccines: When they are rolled out in mass vaccinations, there could be individuals with allergies or other underlying conditions who react badly. I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.

 

[ I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.]

 

Nooooo....  Thats Amnesia !!!  

 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

4 hours ago, DrTuner said:

50% would still bring down the R0 a lot. But there's the usual caveat with vaccines: When they are rolled out in mass vaccinations, there could be individuals with allergies or other underlying conditions who react badly. I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.

Will it really matter though, if this virus continues its unprecedented spread, won't so many people be infected that herd immunity will be achieved without a vaccine?

 

Theoretically yes... until it mutates. 

 

There is enough research into Influenza that the next mutation can be predicted (kind-of) and we can vaccinated before the outbreaks occur (H1N1 outbreak in 2009 caught everyone out though). 

 

With similar research it may be possible to immunise against specific Coronaviruses. 

 

Ultimately the end goal is be immunise against all influenza types and coronaviruses. 

 

Of course, the frightener is then the next ’new thing’.... I wonder if as we evolve alongside these virus that our coexistence is essential and should we [humans] go too long without viral outbreaks we risk catastrophic impact far greater than we are seeing today.

 

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

I think we have a guinea pig for herd immunity: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-belarus-alexander-lukashenko-vodka-sauna-countryside-tractors-a9434426.html

 

 

Vodka, sauna and football. In Finland football was replaced by drinking tar ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_tar ). Can't play in -38 DegC. That was in the 1800's I think. 

 

I suppose this goes down well together with it:

 

 

Lol, coal tar was of course in a widely used shampoo sold in the UK, T-Gel, by Neutragena. Apparently it worked wonders, very popular with the British. Illegal in overcautious Europe due to minimal cancer concerns.

 

Very good advice by Lukashenko, exercise and banya both strengthen the immune system. I went to the Banya in Russia myself, very invigorating. He's definitely on to something. I will show this article to a friend, much merriment will ensue. Of course I can't even go to the steam room in my Virgin Active gym because the Thai leaders have bought into the social distancing mania, the worst of all measures.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Theoretically yes... until it mutates. 

 

There is enough research into Influenza that the next mutation can be predicted (kind-of) and we can vaccinated before the outbreaks occur (H1N1 outbreak in 2009 caught everyone out though). 

 

With similar research it may be possible to immunise against specific Coronaviruses. 

 

Ultimately the end goal is be immunise against all influenza types and coronaviruses. 

 

Of course, the frightener is then the next ’new thing’.... I wonder if as we evolve alongside these virus that our coexistence is essential and should we [humans] go too long without viral outbreaks we risk catastrophic impact far greater than we are seeing today.

 

 

Yes, but coronaviruses don't mutate as much as influenza viruses.  So when and if we get Coronavirus vaccines they should provide immunity longer. Because the number of mutations are small with coronaviruses, compared with influenza viruses, and thus the chance of new strains is reduced. In fact sometimes the mutations work in our favour, the SARS virus last a part of its genome related to transmission, which helped us. A mutation can be good as well. They've checked for mutations with SARS Cov2 and there aren't that many, and none of any consequence.

 

But yes, there is no guarantee that immunity will last as long as with smallpox. Every virus has its own story in its interaction with humans. We will have to see if we even get a vaccine that works 50% of the time like with swine flu.

 

If you think it through, and think a SARS1 that could spread like this, with a mortality rate of 10%, or a new virus that could be even worse that is terrifying. The precautions taken, the funding to fight pandemics, this will all increase and it will change our lives. Less funding for other diseases, what will air travel look like. Germany is giving immunity certificates, essential workers get pay raises, others don't and lose their jobs, crime will increase. It's a new world of fear. I pity my children, I really do.

 

You know a virus is Dr Evil when a virus can infect a bacteria. Viruses are so bad, they even infect bacteria.

 

And the worst: As far as human pathogens are concerned Viruses are the new kid on the block, the emerging superstar. Because the very vast majority of human pathogens are bacteria, but virus make up two thirds of new human pathogens. Why have viruses suddenly started to target us? Simple mathematics, since there's so many of us we make a good host. The virus needs cells. Just pure chance.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3427559/

 

It almost makes you think someone designed a limitation on upper population, if you didn't know better. Uncanny.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Logosone

[bristolboy]

On 3/30/2020 at 11:15 AM, Logosone said:

You're right, a lock down at the beginning would have made sense, it would have avoided the dramatic numbers. But now that the virus has spread widely, that logic is becoming very flimsy.

 

China did not just lockdown. China used a variety of intervention measures simultaneously, including testing, identifying and isolating the infected, clinical management and restrictions of mobility. Chinese studies have not been able to determine how much of a reduction in transmission is to be attributed to each measure. So, basically there are three main measures:

 

1. Testing, identifying and isolating the infected

2. Clinical management of infected cases

3. Restrictions on movement

 

What if, it is 1 and 2 that are by far the most effective methods, and 3 only provides very small benefits? Why focus on that measure and not on the other two?

 

China is not a success story btw, it has one of the highest mortality rates. It remains to be seen what future waves will bring. In a way China is to blame for this social distancing focus.

 

What if it what was decided, ie restrictions on travel, social distancing, was wrong? What if taking the fight to the virus by testing and isolating is much more successful? Why follow a wrong decision? Personally I think the focus is on social distancing because it's much easier to set up a road block than to test, find and isolate the infected. The UK only focused on it because it had no test kits, so the testing and isolating option was not available to them.

 

Yes, the Thai request so far has been less draconian than it could be, but the restrictions are still very harsh. A lot of Thai business, owned by your fellow Thais, will go bankrupt and will never return. Have you thought about the catastrophic economic cost of the lockdown?

 

Yes, Farangs not wearing masks might be to your benefit, as it is more likely that herd immunity will set in in Thailand before mass testing would ever stop the virus, and social distancing can not stop the virus. The sooner everyone gets herd immunity the better it will be.  Obviously relying on the Thai government to test, identify and isolate all the infected is useless, as they have shown they are not able to do that.

 

 

 

Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

Harsh measures, including stay-at-home orders and restaurant closures, are contributing to rapid drops in the numbers of fevers — a signal symptom of most coronavirus infections — recorded in states across the country, according to intriguing new data produced by a medical technology firm...

 

Since 2018, when it had more than 500,000 thermometers distributed, its predictions have routinely been two to three weeks ahead of those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which gathers flu data on patient symptoms from doctors’ offices and hospitals.

To identify clusters of coronavirus infections, Kinsa recently adapted its software to detect spikes of “atypical fever” that do not correlate with historical flu patterns and are likely attributable to the coronavirus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/health/smart-thermometers-flu.html

[WhatupThailand]

THE REAL DEAL

 

Biggest Deception On The Whole World End Game Plan

https://coachdavelive.video/video/1722/biggest-deception-on-the-whole-world-endgame-plan

 

 

 

[Logosone]

On 3/31/2020 at 5:34 PM, bristolboy said:

Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

Harsh measures, including stay-at-home orders and restaurant closures, are contributing to rapid drops in the numbers of fevers — a signal symptom of most coronavirus infections — recorded in states across the country, according to intriguing new data produced by a medical technology firm...

 

Since 2018, when it had more than 500,000 thermometers distributed, its predictions have routinely been two to three weeks ahead of those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which gathers flu data on patient symptoms from doctors’ offices and hospitals.

To identify clusters of coronavirus infections, Kinsa recently adapted its software to detect spikes of “atypical fever” that do not correlate with historical flu patterns and are likely attributable to the coronavirus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/health/smart-thermometers-flu.html

Yeah, that study is old news, it's from a company touting its temperature scanners. It has not been independently reviewed.

 

The reduction in fevers could just be because people are a lot of more careful now, washing their hands, so there is less flu and common cold, hence the drop in fevers. Just counting any and all spike in fever as Covid19 of course does not make it so. It could easily be a flu or cold related temperature. Kinsa didn't check.

 

Their data is pretty useless.

 

But no doubt we will see claims that "see social distancing works" when the numbers go down. As several measures are thrown at the virus simultaenously it is not really possible to untangle which measure caused what degree of reduction in transmission. So social distancing fanatics can easily take the credit for a reduction in cases that is really due to testing and isolating the infected.

[Olmate]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yeah, that study is old news, it's from a company touting its temperature scanners. It has not been independently reviewed.

 

The reduction in fevers could just be because people are a lot of more careful now, washing their hands, so there is less flu and common cold, hence the drop in fevers. Just counting any and all spike in fever as Covid19 of course does not make it so. It could easily be a flu or cold related temperature. Kinsa didn't check.

 

Their data is pretty useless.

 

But no doubt we will see claims that "see social distancing works" when the numbers go down. As several measures are thrown at the virus simultaenously it is not really possible to untangle which measure caused what degree of reduction in transmission. So social distancing fanatics can easily take the credit for a reduction in cases that is really due to testing and isolating the infected.

Or face masks in places where required by the owner!????????????

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Or face masks in places where required by the owner!????????????

Face masks do nothing to end the virus.

 

Totally useless.

 

Germany is a case in point. Hardly anyone wears masks and still half the mortality rate of South Korea. Wearing a mask is not really required to combat this virus.