14 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

Must be 50,000-100,000 cases already.  Predictions are meaningless without widespread testing and no plans to implement it.

Correct. 

23 hours ago, webfact said:

Scenario 1: If Thais didn't follow rules and practice social distancing there would be 24-25,000 cases.

The above coupled with inadequate testing numbers I'd put money on #1

22 hours ago, smedly said:

how will they detect the infections if they are not testing in any significant numbers  

 

WHO and experts around the world are very clear about this - MASSIVE TESTING IS PARAMOUNT to controlling this virus 

 

Shouldn't be a problem for Thailand as they appointed themselves the "Medical HUB" of South East Asia - maybe the world

555.

Isn't the WHO mantra 

test, test, test ....

Really don't believe Songkran will be a non event.  will know in a week or two

There is lots of skepticism from people who obviously have no medical training whatsoever.  

I understand that we should be wary of news sources.  

Remember that the main problem if you get a large wave and you get sick is you don't get any help whatsoever.  The data points to the problem time and time again, unquestionably.  In Italy people are dying without care.  People are being taken off life support as the prognosis becomes poor and the ventilator will go to others.

You don't generally know which group you will be in - the 20 percent that get very bad symptoms.  The 5 percent that needs hospitalization.  Or the 3 percent that die.  (arguably these numbers)

If you don't stop this wave you're probably dead in this scenario.  And I assume many of you are over 50, probably overweight (some), have medical conditions (many).  The ramifications of you getting sick can be much more serious.  

What will happen?  Only time will tell.  All these people talking about hopeful outcomes I sure hope it happens but it hasn't happened yet, not by a long shot.