Which shares are you buying?

[BillStrangeOgre]

There's another thread on the same subject but devoted to UK shares, i'm thinking more international.

The markets have turned, perhaps the bottom has been found or even passed, perhaps not. Last few weeks were a horror show (and still are for some) but i have the feeling everyone has gotten used to the new reality and now recalibrated. China has perhaps turned the corner? Italy, Spain and France to follow? If so, US cannot be far behind. Any recovery from here will be measured by the infection numbers and reporting season will soon be upon us. Also, unemployment numbers are going to be scary. How much of that is already factored into prices? Could be there's a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel?

 

I'm looking at Carnival. This virus will pass in time. Cruising is huge business in the US, can't imagine that Covid-19 will change that. A risky play for sure but how long can they survive a prolonged shut down in their business? Upside in the share price is huge!

 

 

 

 

[tifino]

Uber Eats 

 

certain they will 'deliver' 

[tonray]

48 minutes ago, BillStrangeOgre said:

Cruising is huge business in the US, can't imagine that Covid-19 will change that

I've taken several Bermuda/Bahama cruises...I could not imagine ever getting on a cruise ship again...stranded in the middle of the ocean with even your own country refusing to let you make port. Done and dusted forever as far as I'm concerned.

[BillStrangeOgre]

37 minutes ago, tonray said:

I've taken several Bermuda/Bahama cruises...I could not imagine ever getting on a cruise ship again...stranded in the middle of the ocean with even your own country refusing to let you make port. Done and dusted forever as far as I'm concerned.

I've never been on a cruise and have to admit it doesn't really appeal to me either...but plenty of Americans (and others) love it, it's in their blood. Few years from now all this will be forgotten and the yanks will be flocking back ????

[OneZero]

Thought I saw on Bloomberg today that Saudi Govt was going to invest substantially in Carnival.  If true that would probably prevent it from going under.

[zhounan]

Big Pharma

[timendres]

I am so short this market, I cannot even imagine going long.

Cruise ship companies? You might want to consider buying lotto tickets.

[InfinityandBeyond]

Banks. They always make money in good times or bad. Especially bad. 

[BillStrangeOgre]

1 hour ago, OneZero said:

Thought I saw on Bloomberg today that Saudi Govt was going to invest substantially in Carnival.  If true that would probably prevent it from going under.

True, they have just bought around 8% of the company. On a negative note, the company has raised billions through debt and equity offerings last week to stay afloat. Also, the US govt. announced they won't be bailing them out. 

The shares are down a whopping 80%...A speculative long term punt

[BillStrangeOgre]

1 hour ago, timendres said:

I am so short this market, I cannot even imagine going long.

Cruise ship companies? You might want to consider buying lotto tickets.

Depends on how you see this crisis evolving...governments have pumped trillions into economies in Europe and the US with probably more to come. That should go a long way in supporting the worst effects of a collapse in demand and probably means a depression will be avoided.

If the infections curve starts to flatten out and fall in Europe/US in the near term as it seems to be doing in China then the pandemic will appear to be more manageable. A spike in share prices will then reflect that.

Glass half full or empty? Good arguments either way ????

[DaRoadrunner]

1 minute ago, BillStrangeOgre said:

governments have pumped trillions into economies

And the world has fallen ever deeper into debt.

[BillStrangeOgre]

1 hour ago, InfinityandBeyond said:

Banks. They always make money in good times or bad. Especially bad. 

Yup, i think banks are a solid long term buy at the moment. They are better capitalised now and rules of the game have been tightened since the financial crisis. Loan books might not be performing but are guaranteed by recent business bailouts and support of domestic borrowers. The financial crisis proved one thing...governments are the lender of last resort where banks are concerned

I recon if you bought practically anything today at these prices in five years you will have made money ????

[donnacha]

In the short term, I believe Bitcoin and Ethereum will regain value faster than shares, but this year will be extremely volatile for every form of asset, including shares.

 

At some point this year I will move back to shares, hopefully having moved ahead around 50% (relative to shares) on crypto first.

 

As a long term bet with decent dividends, I like AAPL. The market never seems to price in the potential of future Apple products but that is what they are, a machine that creates hit products. I can see that they are steaming towards their post-iPhone platform, I understand the space it will occupy, our new future of spending more time alone only makes it more vital.

 

 

 

[BillStrangeOgre]

21 minutes ago, donnacha said:

In the short term, I believe Bitcoin and Ethereum will regain value faster than shares, but this year will be extremely volatile for every form of asset, including shares.

 

At some point this year I will move back to shares, hopefully having moved ahead around 50% (relative to shares) on crypto first.

 

As a long term bet with decent dividends, I like AAPL. The market never seems to price in the potential of future Apple products but that is what they are, a machine that creates hit products. I can see that they are steaming towards their post-iPhone platform, I understand the space it will occupy, our new future of spending more time alone only makes it more vital.

 

 

 

I have never understood crypto, it's that old 'you can't teach an old dog new tricks' yaba. I understand the argument for gold/dollars/bonds in a search for safety but why do you think investors will move into crypto now as opposed to other assets?

[CGW]

Royal Dutch Shell, any of the oil majors, oil will take off -sooner rather than later!

[BillStrangeOgre]

6 minutes ago, CGW said:

Royal Dutch Shell, any of the oil majors, oil will take off -sooner rather than later!

Shell is already up around 70% since recent low of 18/03...

[DaRoadrunner]

37 minutes ago, CGW said:

Royal Dutch Shell, any of the oil majors, oil will take off -sooner rather than later!

Depends what happens at the OPEC meeting today. Agree though, long term huge upside for Shell and BP.

[donnacha]

1 hour ago, BillStrangeOgre said:

I have never understood crypto, it's that old 'you can't teach an old dog new tricks' yaba.

I got into it relatively late, mainly because I did not want any additional complexity in my life. I also felt that I had missed the boat anyway. Having been aware of it when it was just a few cents per Bitcoin, I simply could not bring myself to get involved after it reached the ridiculous price of one hundred dollars. That was crazy.

When I finally got around to it a few years ago, I was surprised to discover that buying, holding, and selling were all very simple. You join an exchange by emailing them photos of your ID documents. Then you make a bank transfer to your account, giving you a balance in your currency. Then you buy as much or as little as you want of the various types of cryptocurrency, giving you new balances in each. You can invest as little as a dollar at a time if you want. The fees are extremely low, so, you can easily jump in and out of various currencies, and you can maintain balances in pretty much all types of "fiat" currencies, including Thai Baht.

The nice part is that, when you want to sell, the money instantly appears in your cash balance and you can send as much of that as you want to your bank account. For me, using the European banking system, the money appears in my bank within an hour. That gave me the confidence to keep more of my "ready cash" in crypto.

The bad part, of course, is that high volatility means you might be ahead one day and behind the next. It would be a bad idea to put money into crypto that you are definitely going to need back the following week. The trick, much like regular shares, is to ride the waves and sell when the prices are at a high. You usually don't have to wait too long, high volatility means the swings happen more often.
 

 

1 hour ago, BillStrangeOgre said:

I understand the argument for gold/dollars/bonds in a search for safety but why do you think investors will move into crypto now as opposed to other assets?

My short-term thesis is that the current prices are irrationally low due to "worse case scenario" thinking and will continue to recover as it becomes more apparent that the world is not actually ending.

My medium-term thesis is that unprecedented levels of quantitive easing, along with a less-than-convincing narrative from the governments backing those currencies, will tip more investors towards keeping at least some of their money in currencies that cannot be inflated, such as Bitcoin. That is the core value of Bitcoin: an easily transferrable store of value that cannot increase in number.

My long-term thesis is that, having established its credibility over a decade, Bitcoin will experience more of the massive jumps it has in the past. I don't know when, but some of the past major rises have been fueled by the need to move value out of repressive regimes such as China and Venezuela. In my own life, I have made several major sales to customers in Vietnam that simply could not have happened without Bitcoin because their government strictly controls the ability of money to leave the country. Bitcoin was extremely useful for both me and those Vietnamese buyers, allowing the magic of trade to occur where it otherwise could not.

My Coronavirus hunch is that world as a whole will become more repressive. This year will see major moves to remove cash from circulation, as has already happened in some countries, and significant increases in all forms of taxation.
 

The main thing to remember is that the entire crypto market is tiny. For example, the current value of all Bitcoins is under $135 billion. It is a microbe compared to the regular markets and assets such as gold (around ten trillion). As quantitive easing exceeds anything we saw in the wake of 9/11, the amount of money sloshing around the world is going to be insane. With banks offering no interest and few regular investments (such as startups) making any sense at all, if Bitcoin starts to rise you could see a lot of idle money deciding to jump onboard. Its relatively small size means that, if such a trend takes hold, we will see ridiculous rises, spurring even more attention. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is a big factor in Bitcoin pricing.

The Coronavirus shock caused Bitcoin to lose half its value within a month. A combination of panic and a desire to convert to cash to buy other suddenly cheaper assets, meant that it dropped from 10k in mid-February to 5k in mid-March. Now, as we approach mid-April, it is back up to 7.3k and my gut tells me it will probably hit 10k again by June. My prediction that it would recover more quickly than shares appears to be holding. There is, of course, a chance that it will crash again but I think it has already weathered the worst possible situation. The chance of an upwards boom is now higher than the chance of another crash.

Anyone curious should consider investing a small amount that you can easily track. For example, today, 1% of a Bitcoin would cost you around $73. Having an exact percentage like that will make it easy for you to see the market price and know how much your stake is now worth without have to engage in complicated math. If you can afford to risk it, an entire Bitcoin for around $7.3K would be even easier to track. There is a certain thrill in watching the price of an asset rocket, even if you only own a small amount.

The other popular coin is Ethereum which currently costs just $170. Some people think it has more upside potential than Bitcoin. I do have a few Ethereum but, personally, I think there is a lot of value in Bitcoin being the cryptocurrency that everyone has heard of.

I hope that helps.

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by donnacha

[DaRoadrunner]

21 minutes ago, donnacha said:

There is a certain thrill in watching the price of an asset rocket, even if you only own a small amount.

Then there is that other feeling you get when it crashes and your underwear goes to the laundry.

 

Most currencies are backed by banks and Govts, what is Bitcoin backed by?

[donnacha]

2 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Most currencies are backed by banks and Govts, what is Bitcoin backed by?

Math.

That fiat currencies are "backed" by governments is not such a great selling point. Inflating currencies is the main form of hidden taxation and there is no way they are going to stop doing that, especially now.

People will always need ways to conduct trade and to store their excess income. Governments have ridden on the back of that need. Disinter-mediating governments actually unlocks a lot of value in its own right.

Over a decade, the appetite for Bitcoin, as an efficient way to transfer or store value, has grown. It has proved itself to be robust. It is not going to disappear. I am not convinced we can say the same for the Euro.

Bitcoin will have more big rises, and more big drops, but I believe the current price will be looked back on as bargain.
 

 

2 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

Then there is that other feeling you get when it crashes and your underwear goes to the laundry.

Well, it isn't so bad once you internalize the idea that it is a naturally volatile asset. During this crash, it lost 50% which is roughly the same as most shares, but it appears to have swung back up faster than most shares.

I do not keep everything in crypto, most of my assets are in my business, but, after a few years experience, I feel confident that crypto is the best way to handle my personal savings this year. The nice thing is that we have a lot of choices.


 

[tonray]

10 hours ago, OneZero said:

Thought I saw on Bloomberg today that Saudi Govt was going to invest substantially in Carnival.  If true that would probably prevent it from going under.

Probably use the ships to store unsold oil....ha ha h ha ha

[peterpop]

Buy the companies that will prosper in the settlement of Bankruptcy.   Also international law and patent protection. In the UK a small company called Begbies Traynor [ LSE:BEG] is doing very well and I expect another 20 % in the next few months.

[4MyEgo]

I invest in the Australian Stock Exchange ASX and believe there to be many growth companies small cap and others.

 

I have invested in these which I believe will be a good long term low risk capital appreciation stock/s, albeit there are some stock that do not pay dividends that I pick, so it's focus is on the capital gain as I do not pay tax on either.

 

Do your own research though.

 

NXTDC 

NEXTDC is an Australian data centre operator. It was founded by Bevan Slattery in 2010. In 2015, NEXTDC was named by Deloitte as Australia's fastest growing technology company. It has been listed on the S&P/ASX 200 since 2016.

 

NAN

Nanosonics Limited (NAN) is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of the trophon EPR ultrasound probe disinfector and its associated consumables and accessories. It is also involved in research, development and commercialization of infection control and decontamination products and related technologies. NAN is headquartered in Sydney, Australia with offices in the USA (Nanosonics Inc) and Europe (Nanosonics Europe GmbH).

 

BUB

Bubs, this is the one to keep your eye on.

[dlclark97]

Am not yet convinced the NYSE, SP and NASDAQ are at the bottoms and will only rise at this time.  At 80 years old and may be being too cautious but everything I previously held sold off the second day of the market decline thanks to STOP LOSS orders.  Did go down a little from the market highs but less than a 5% decrease in my holdings.  That said I am staying on the sidelines for now but watching several Fidelity and other ETF's.  So much more diversification than individual stocks at this time.  DIA, FNCL, FTEC, NOBL, ONEQ, QQQ and SPY would be where I will eventually reenter the market.  Possibly also a consumer staples ETF.  

[LarryLEB]

35 minutes ago, dlclark97 said:

Am not yet convinced the NYSE, SP and NASDAQ are at the bottoms and will only rise at this time.  At 80 years old and may be being too cautious but everything I previously held sold off the second day of the market decline thanks to STOP LOSS orders.  Did go down a little from the market highs but less than a 5% decrease in my holdings.  That said I am staying on the sidelines for now but watching several Fidelity and other ETF's.  So much more diversification than individual stocks at this time.  DIA, FNCL, FTEC, NOBL, ONEQ, QQQ and SPY would be where I will eventually reenter the market.  Possibly also a consumer staples ETF.  

QQQ -- agreed.

[Lucky dog]

The smart bet is to buy the eurl It’s a etf for ftse100. It’s a etf x3. So if eurl goes up 1% eurl goes up 3%. Upside is 300% from here and 500% from where it was a few days ago. Everyone says it will retest the bottom. If it does can get it for 6-7 upside 35-40 min. No bad earnings report or bad news that can happen to a regular stock. Very safe compared to a regular stock and more upside than most. You can do the same thing with the tqqq for the nasdaq 100. Don’t forget to send me my 10%. 

[Surelynot]

FTSE 100 solid performers who have been punished in the melee. EG, Ashtead, RSA, Coca Cola. You can day trade them now in the knowledge the eventual upside is still huge.

[AgMech Cowboy]

Interesting take on Carnival, but I'd be buy Shopify.  SHOP is the NYSE symbol.

[baansgr]

13 hours ago, BillStrangeOgre said:

Yup, i think banks are a solid long term buy at the moment. They are better capitalised now and rules of the game have been tightened since the financial crisis. Loan books might not be performing but are guaranteed by recent business bailouts and support of domestic borrowers. The financial crisis proved one thing...governments are the lender of last resort where banks are concerned

I recon if you bought practically anything today at these prices in five years you will have made money ????

Banks in UK have had their dividends suspended by FCA for 2020

[grobec]

Look for bank stocks that are committed to maintaining dividends.

safe and equitable bet for aged warriors portfolios.