Coronavirus crisis could plunge half a billion people into poverty - Oxfam

[spidermike007]

Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb.

 

The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat?

 

Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. 

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 100,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid. OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

Edited April 10, 2020 by spidermike007

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, simple1 said:

Seriously doubt NZ government will cease foreign aid due to Covid.

Maybe not because of Corona, but being broke might. The dole q just lengthened immensely. The unemployed masses will be very unhappy if they are in poverty because of government action and millions being given to people in other countries.

They might vote for a party that says no to foreign aid and immigration.

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The rich stay safe and financially secure.

That says it all. Government members and bureaucrats are all financially secure now and doing very well with large salaries and guaranteed pensions. I doubt they will be moved by the plight of small people. After all, many/ most have never had a real job in their lives, never suffered hunger, homelessness etc. They, IMO, live in a bubble divorced from reality.

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat?

Any switched on entrepreneur with a clue will be investing in televised events that don't have a live audience, pay per view of course. Millions already do it for sports, so it's not exactly new tech.

They'll also be investing in holographic and virtual reality tech. Imagine being able to put on a headpiece and "be there" at concerts, sports events and also for virtual travel experience- no more 12 hour flights in economy class. Stadiums can be converted to house the homeless and airlines can stop polluting the stratosphere- all good.

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels,

Be so ironic if the thing that killed Pattaya as a tourist destination for party people was government action. Can we be happy that the millions of baht funneled into back pockets will no longer be available as the bar scene closes for good?

[simple1]

17 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Maybe not because of Corona, but being broke might. The dole q just lengthened immensely. The unemployed masses will be very unhappy if they are in poverty because of government action and millions being given to people in other countries.

They might vote for a party that says no to foreign aid and immigration.

Nope governments will borrow money to meet their social welfare commitments, as have already happened for Western democratic countries. NZ does not have a terrible debt to GDP ratio as do some other countries which makes increasing the national debt more palatable.

 

People may well vote for a party espousing no foreign aid and immigration, would they win, No.

Edited April 10, 2020 by simple1

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Cruise ships?

If the airlines go broke, they might be converted to carry people moving to other countries, rather than cruising. Like before 747s were made and people traveled by ship. The way I traveled as a child. International tourism by air might be gone for good, but people will still need to travel between countries.

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Nope governments will borrow money to meet their social welfare commitments, as have already happened for Western democratic countries. May well vote for a party espousing no foreign aid and immigration, would they win, highly unlikely.

We'll have to wait and see then. The world just changed, if you hadn't noticed. No longer the way things used to be, or perhaps it will be- none of us has a crystal ball that works.

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, stephenterry said:

So you want to wait for c. 6 months before herd immunity is feasible, or c. two months to let the virus pass by? Lockdowns are essential  to save lives - end of.

You apparently don't get it. A lock down can stop the spread of the virus, but it doesn't eliminate it. It's impossible to lock down the entire population for the 12 to 18 months for a vaccine to become available, so soon as people start to mingle again it only takes one infected person to start it all over again. Is it your plan to lockdown every time it starts to spread again? The unemployed might disagree with that.

 

This isn't the first time we have been in this situation. They didn't lock down in 1918 and the human race survived.

[simple1]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

We'll have to wait and see then. The world just changed, if you hadn't noticed. No longer the way things used to be, or perhaps it will be- none of us has a crystal ball that works.

As you say will have to wait and see. The right of centre so called leaders, such as trump, have IMO shot themselves in the foot. Would be surprising to me if they manage to keep in power, but they are increasingly leaning towards authoritarian, so when a vaccine is available it may well turn out some societies may no longer be what they use to be.

[stephenterry]

54 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You apparently don't get it. A lock down can stop the spread of the virus, but it doesn't eliminate it. It's impossible to lock down the entire population for the 12 to 18 months for a vaccine to become available, so soon as people start to mingle again it only takes one infected person to start it all over again. Is it your plan to lockdown every time it starts to spread again? The unemployed might disagree with that.

 

This isn't the first time we have been in this situation. They didn't lock down in 1918 and the human race survived.

Yes, I do get it, but to risk an ongoing high global death rate to gain a long term advantage is premature and reckless, IMO. For example, Vietnam, amongst other countries, has controlled the outbreak to minimum death rates in single figures because of their lockdown and testing management. 

 

Words mean nothing, it's action that counts - it's very doubtful that your family, friends and neighbours would appreciate your solution of being exposed to the virus - especially those with health issues - and I doubt very much if you would be willing to put yourself on the front line of 'the herd' to prove your point.  

 

And I doubt very much if any of the posters on this site would be willing to join you...

 

 

 

 

  

[metisdead]

A troll post and a reply has been removed. 

[Chomper Higgot]

On 4/9/2020 at 5:59 PM, Skeptic7 said:

In other words...The cure will prove worse than the problem. One thing is certain...when this virus (or some other) appears in the future, Planet Earth CANNOT afford these drastic measures of being stopped again. What good trying to save every single possible life when there nothing left which to return??? 

Worse for who?

 

It doesn’t get worse than people dying.

 

The economy isn’t dead, jobs and prosperity will return.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, stephenterry said:

Yes, I do get it, but to risk an ongoing high global death rate to gain a long term advantage is premature and reckless, IMO. For example, Vietnam, amongst other countries, has controlled the outbreak to minimum death rates in single figures because of their lockdown and testing management. 

 

Words mean nothing, it's action that counts - it's very doubtful that your family, friends and neighbours would appreciate your solution of being exposed to the virus - especially those with health issues - and I doubt very much if you would be willing to put yourself on the front line of 'the herd' to prove your point.  

 

And I doubt very much if any of the posters on this site would be willing to join you...

 

 

 

 

  

I've said it before and I'll, say it again- if I get Corona I will most likely die, and have no intention of being on a ventilator.

So, I'm prepared to die if I get it so younger people could have a life worth living.

I could go on about it, but what would be the point? People either think let herd immunity be the solution or want to save everyone and destroy life as we knew it. Pretty stark difference but OTY.

[thaibeachlovers]

54 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The economy isn’t dead, jobs and prosperity will return.

Economy is, IMO, pretty much dead as the Dodo in NZ and prosperity has gone wandering in the wilderness, hopefully not for 40 years.

A country that depends on international tourism for a large part of its GDP is very much in the deep doodoo for the next 12 to 18 months, or longer.

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, simple1 said:

so when a vaccine is available it may well turn out some societies may no longer be what they use to be.

I would say that is the understatement of the century.

It's all uncharted waters ahead and no one knows what is going to come.

I'll hazard a guess that the only thing guaranteed to happen is that it's NOT going to be a resumption of life as we knew it.

[rumak]

On 4/10/2020 at 2:20 AM, Tounge Thaied said:

Governments world-wide are truly about to feel the wrath of WE THE PEOPLE!! It's time to say, enough is enough!!!

Lead the way !   I am sure others will be right behind you..... after they finish their cappuchinos .   

[rumak]

20 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

screw the rest of us .   when did "they" ever care?   Sad to say, but even among the "rest of us" the mantra has always been "me first".     

The only sure way to assure security it seems is to work for the MAN.   Jobs in government or the military will have pensions that are sure to last.  Just gotta toe the line and punch the clock, obedient workers.

The free spirits of the world have been squeezed and squeezed for a long time.  My guess is with the ease of surveillance and new technologies, like facebook ???? .....   the days of individualism are numbered.   

Hey honey, take a look.  Are they letting anyone out yet ??

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Worse for who?

 

It doesn’t get worse than people dying.

 

The economy isn’t dead, jobs and prosperity will return.

Total BS. It could take years to "ramp up" the economy, and millions could starve, opposed to the 150,000 that might die from this thing. Lockdown is inane. The IMF predicts as many as half of the world's population could be thrown into poverty. Only someone with alot of cash in the bank could argue that this was worth it.

[stephenterry]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I've said it before and I'll, say it again- if I get Corona I will most likely die, and have no intention of being on a ventilator.

So, I'm prepared to die if I get it so younger people could have a life worth living.

I could go on about it, but what would be the point? People either think let herd immunity be the solution or want to save everyone and destroy life as we knew it. Pretty stark difference but OTY.

 

The younger people could have a better life if the planet was saved - not the global economy.  This coronavirus is a precursor to a massive sea change in 'life as we know it' in most modern societies. Ending pollution of the atmosphere, global warming, saving animals from factory slaughterhouses, and regenerating the planet from deforestation, ocean pollution, and wanton human destruction on all levels - all in the name of progress and financial greed in all walks of life. 

 

if you consider that it's destroying life as we know it, I welcome that. The world would be a far better place than returning to life before Coronavirus. 

 

 

   

 

 

[spidermike007]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Be so ironic if the thing that killed Pattaya as a tourist destination for party people was government action. Can we be happy that the millions of baht funneled into back pockets will no longer be available as the bar scene closes for good?

No. Not happy at all. All that entertainment lost. All those jobs lost. Only happy if you are a Quaker, a Mormon, a Jehovah's witness, or some sort of moral crusader. All the color is lost. Will it return?