2020 overall deaths interesting comparison site.

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Those are not the death figures. Those were the number of new cases. Big difference. Only 1,830 deaths in the US yesterday.

Those were total deaths. If your total number of deaths is doubling every few days you need to take measures to stop that. 

[donnacha]

2 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

This pandemic is a minor accident which is not and will never be in the TOP 20 for the most deadly diseases or accidents.

According to that site, you are wrong.

Even its top cause of death, coronary artery disease, is listed as causing around 7k deaths per day.

Stroke, the 2nd highest, kills around 5k per day, while 3rd place lower respiratory tract infection kills 2.5k per day.

C-19 appears to have killed 6,095 yesterday, and continues to grow.

So, yeah. It is in the Top 20, will likely be #1 by the end of this week, and is likely to stay there for a while.
 

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by donnacha

[FarFlungFalang]

30 minutes ago, chessman said:

This is the start of Covid 19, looking at total deaths at the moment is not very useful because that is not why governments are taking such extreme measures. Instead, think about the potential devastation this virus could cause. If 30,000 die from the flu every month, how many could die from a virus that spread more easily than flu and killed more of the people who got it? 

Hey look I wasn't the one who said it was 20-30 times worse than the flu and actually have no idea how bad it is or will be do you?If so please state your case and we will go from there you like me and everybody else trying to predict the outcome we are guessing,if my argument about the original statement of being 20-30 times is wrong as you suggest please point out where it is wrong as your argument seems to have wandered from the original argument which you suggest I might be wilfully misunderstanding the post I queried.To answer your question;If 30,000 die from the flu every month, how many could die from a virus that spread more easily than flu and killed more of the people who got it?Firstly nobody knows how much more easily sars cov 2 spreads than the flu and there are varying guesses on the net but they are guess are they not?Do you know how fast previous flu pandemics spread if so could you tell us how it is that you and nobdy else knows this?SecondlyHow many more people has sars cov 2 killed than the flu?Is this another number you can accurately and scientifically state?Because I haven't found anyone else that has provided this number because as you rightfully say it's not over yet.I do think about the possible outcomes and the potential of C19 but I'm not equipped with enough knowledge to reach any substantial conclutions as for me it's way to early to tell and way to many variables in play.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[Bangel72]

Waiting on this year comparison to this.  Covid has potential to do a lot more harm both in deaths and long term economic impact but still interesting in the net difference in lives lost or saved for this week.

 

[donnacha]

16 minutes ago, chessman said:

Those were total deaths. If your total number of deaths is doubling every few days you need to take measures to stop that. 

Right, I understand now, thank you.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by donnacha

[Peterw42]

9 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Those are not the death figures. Those were the number of new cases. Big difference. Only 1,830 deaths in the US yesterday.
 

 

They are the death figures. I am not quoting deaths per day, I am quoting total deaths, and that figure doubles every 5 days, 5,000 total deaths on April 1st, 10,000 total deaths on April 6th, now 20,000 on April 11th

[FarFlungFalang]

Waiting on this year comparison to this.  Covid has potential to do a lot more harm both in deaths and long term economic impact but still interesting in the net difference in lives lost or saved for this week.

 

 

 

Interesting also is where the number of deaths justify the measures being undertaken as C19 will have to surpass the 400,000 per year to warrant it so I also wait for the final outcome.

Edited April 12, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[donnacha]

3 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

They are the death figures. I am not quoting deaths per day, I am quoting total deaths, and that figure doubles every 5 days, 5,000 total deaths on April 1st, 10,000 total deaths on April 6th, now 20,000 on April 11th

Ah!

I never understood that way of tracking it. Seems the cumulative figure is a bad metric if you are comparing to other countries as, obviously, some have been dealing with it for longer than others.

Same goes for all the media reporting on the total cases (including those who have recovered or died) rather than the current number of active cases, a far more useful metric.



 

Edited April 12, 2020 by donnacha

[chessman]

8 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Hey look I wasn't the one who said it was 20-30 times worse than the flu and actually have no idea how bad it is or will be do you?If so please state your case and we will go from there you like me and everybody else trying to predict the outcome we are guessing,if my argument about the original statement of being 20-30 times is wrong as you suggest please point out where it is wrong as your argument seems to have wandered from the original argument which you suggest I might be wilfully misunderstanding the post I queried.To answer your question;If 30,000 die from the flu every month, how many could die from a virus that spread more easily than flu and killed more of the people who got it?Firstly nobody knows how much more easily sars cov 2 spreads than the flu and there are varying guesses on the net but they are guess are they not?Do you know how fast previous flu pandemics spread if so could you tell us how it is that you and nobdy else knows this?SecondlyHow many more people has sars cov 2 killed than the flu?Is this another number you can accurately and scientifically state?Because I haven't found anyone else that has provided this number because as you rightfully say it's not over yet.

You can do this research yourself. 
you can look up R0 and mortality rate, there is a range of estimates by scientists but almost all of them agree that it spreads more easily (R0) and the mortality rate is higher than flu. There is almost total agreement by experts on this.

with this knowledge, what do you think governments should do? Wait until it’s killing more people than the flu just to check?

 

 

[chessman]

18 minutes ago, donnacha said:

Also, you should immediately contact the Surgeon General to share your stunning insight that they should take measures to stop the death rate doubling.

You may have noticed but most countries in the world are taking measures already.

[donnacha]

Just now, chessman said:

You may have noticed but most countries in the world are taking measures already.

Yes, I misunderstood what you were saying but have now altered my post.

 

[FarFlungFalang]

6 minutes ago, chessman said:

You can do this research yourself. 
you can look up R0 and mortality rate, there is a range of estimates by scientists but almost all of them agree that it spreads more easily (R0) and the mortality rate is higher than flu. There is almost total agreement by experts on this.

with this knowledge, what do you think governments should do? Wait until it’s killing more people than the flu just to check?

 

 

Do you really expect me to go looking all over the net for reseach that supports an agument that you put forward?It's your argument so it's your job to provide the support for it.I've done enough searching to discover that these "scientists" are guessing,they might agree they are guessing and they might agree with each others guesses but none of them provide scientific proof of their guesses.I will get back to you with support for my argument but just now I'm being told by she who must be obeyed to take the Cassava to the rubber farm,so I'l get back to you shortly. 

[chessman]

18 minutes ago, donnacha said:

I never understood that way of tracking it. Seems the cumulative figure is a bad metric if you are comparing to other countries as, obviously, some have been dealing with it for longer than others.

Same goes for all the media reporting on the total cases (including those who have recovered or died) rather than the current number of active cases, a far more useful metric.

The cumulative figure can be a useful measure to see how quickly the number of deaths is increasing. If it is doubling every few days then if you can’t do something to slow that down you are going to be in big trouble. 
 

one reason they use the total case metric is that different countries have different ways of counting who has recovered. If you look at the UK for example, according to the official figures only 344 out of 78,000 have recovered. The UK will have many more who have recovered but for some reason are included in that official count of 344.

[Assurancetourix]

35 minutes ago, donnacha said:

C-19 appears to have killed 6,095 yesterday, and continues to grow.

You did not understand anything ;
Covid-19 is a death accelerator; nothing more ;
almost no healthy person dies from this virus.
on the other hand all those who already suffer from one or more pathologies are the ideal prey of this Covid-19.
Why are there so many deaths in the USA?
for a very simple reason:
In the USA 39.8% of adults are obese and 31.8% are overweight;
those who combine comorbidity factors such as overweight, obesity and what often accompanies them: hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease are particularly affected by Covid-19

 

The Covid-19 which “disproportionately” kills black Americans makes this reality explode to the world…
In Illinois, blacks represent 14% of the population but 42% of deaths from the epidemic.

In Chicago, 72% of the dead, while they represent less than a third of the inhabitants.

 

The overexposed situation of black Americans only reveals the flaws in a system where money always goes for money. In a country where doctors now ask you to pay a form of year subscription to keep you in their patient base, it is obvious that people combining service jobs that are poorly paid and have no social security coverage - this is the case of a majority of blacks and Hispanics - rarely access care.

[donnacha]

1 minute ago, Assurancetourix said:

You did not understand anything ;
Covid-19 is a death accelerator; nothing more ;
almost no healthy person dies from this virus.

Your own logic defeats your point.

Do you think all those people dying from heart problems only had heart problems?

By the time most people die, they have a long list of problems, several of which may deliver the final blow.

So, Covid-19 is every bit as legitimate a killer as anything else on that list.

No one every claimed it is the only thing wrong with these people. In fact, the point that those with comorbidities are particularly vulnerable has been common knowledge for quite a while now.

What matters in determining cause of death is what killed them on that day. It does not matter if they were probably going to die later in the year anyway.

 

[cornishcarlos]

1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

He didn´t say it was that bad. Don´t always try to twist everything to get a point.

 

Sorry forgot to reply to your claim above..

 

"how many of those are accelerating exponentially, a pandemic, without a vaccine?   oh yea, only one"

 

That's what he said !! 

 

I didn't read anything wrong or twist any words... But you are never wrong are you ?? Apart from when you post on here ????

[chessman]

9 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Do you really expect me to go looking all over the net for reseach that supports an agument that you put forward?It's your argument so it's your job to provide the support for it.I've done enough searching to discover that these "scientists" are guessing,they might agree they are guessing and they might agree with each others guesses but none of them provide scientific proof of their guesses.I will get back to you with support for my argument but just now I'm being told by she who must be obeyed to take the Cassava to the rubber farm,so I'l get back to you shortly. 

Asking for ‘scientific proof’ and exact numbers here doesn’t make sense. The Virus is ongoing, people won’t have exact numbers until after it is finished. But you do have experts in the field, scientists, people who have studied previous viruses and are looking at every new bit of data about this virus. Those people all agree that the R0 and mortality rate is higher than the flu. Almost all of them.

 

if you’re going to put “scientists” in inverted commas and instead place more trust in your own instinct that this is not as bad as the flu then I would suggest that doing some thorough research on the internet may be beneficial for you. 

[Aland]

3 hours ago, Matzzon said:

And what do you want to say with this? What is your point. Are you trying to make the pandemic insignificant? Tell that to the families that lost their loved ones. After that you can take notice of the information in post #3

Facts don’t stand a chance against your kind of reasoning.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

600,000-900,000 are not figures I have quoted or according to me. 

 

If 1,000 people get the flu one person will die, if 1,000 people get covid 10-20 will die.

If a person has the flu, on average they pass it to 1 other person. If a person has covid, on average they pass it to 2.5 people.

 

Yes the flu kills every year but it has an endpoint, because its less deadly, less contagious and is controlled with a vaccine.

 

If you cant see the major difference between the two, then I cant help you understand it.

 

 

Didn't you say that C19 is 20-30 times worse than the flu?If so the flu kills about 30,000 each month and 20-30 times 30,000 is 600,000-900,000 each month is that not what you are saying?

The flu has a (many) vaccine/s yet 400,000 still manage to die!It's less deadly?Are you suggesting that those who die from the flu are less dead?How it that possible?Is that why we don't do global shutdowns for the flu because they are less dead?If you can't see the similarities between the two I suggest you try harder and I can help you understand if you are willing to try by debating and arguing and providing support for those arguments as it's a great way to learn.I highly recommend it!

There is nothing wrong or shameful in conceding points in an argument even if it means losing face I know because I have very little face left as it was well and truly stripped away in my youth by mostly being off my face a large amount of time.

Happy days.

Edited April 12, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[yourauntbob]

4 hours ago, Ventenio said:

how many of those are accelerating exponentially, a pandemic, without a vaccine?   oh yea, only one.

 

so, yea, in a few years after we have a vaccine and 20,000 die a year from this, then it's just a number.  

 

but now.....it can go from 2 million to 2 billion.  nothing else can do that.

On March 24th, the CDC issued an alert stating that doctors should classify “probable COVID-19” or “likely COVID-19” as Covid-19 deaths. Perhaps that explains the seeming drop-off of pneumonia deaths this year and the simultaneous spike in Covid-19 deaths as some researchers have reported.

The BBC reported last week that, “At present in the US, any death of a Covid-19 patient, no matter what the physician believes to be the direct cause, is counted for public reporting as a Covid-19 death.”

 

I am not saying COVID doesn't exist or people should not take precautions.  But considering over 80% of people are completely asymptomatic it's highly unlikely millions let alone billions will die from COVID.

[Matzzon]

43 minutes ago, Aland said:

Facts don’t stand a chance against your kind of reasoning.

What facts are you talking about? Please elaborate on your wise and trendy cliché expression.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Matzzon

[Matzzon]

53 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Sorry forgot to reply to your claim above..

 

"how many of those are accelerating exponentially, a pandemic, without a vaccine?   oh yea, only one"

 

That's what he said !! 

 

I didn't read anything wrong or twist any words... But you are never wrong are you ?? Apart from when you post on here ????

Yes, that´s what he said, among other things you didn´t understand, until you changed you tone in this post.

It said exactly the same from start, apart from you. But, hey! why don´t you just go find somebody that can eat you instead. Seems to be the standing wish from you. Cheers!

[cornishcarlos]

4 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

until you changed you tone in this post.

 

I haven't changed anything.... 

 

Are you on drugs !!!

[FarFlungFalang]

Table 2

Estimated annual influenza-associated deaths in Thailand, 2006–2011 (with the apportioned ill-defined deaths)

Year	A(H1N1)			A(H3N2)			Pdm09 H1N1			B			Total			Rate per 100 000
	Death	95%CI		Death	95%CI		Death	95%CI		Death	95%CI		Death	95%CI		Rate	95%CI
All age
2006	625	−3232	4151	228	−3467	3922	0	0	0	647	−3060	4328	1500	−10 351	12 993	2·4	−17	21
2007	215	−3400	3710	1866	−1690	5426	0	0	0	928	−2655	4470	2952	−8308	14 169	4·7	−13	23
2008	642	−3206	4143	1563	−2115	5240	0	0	0	1499	−2206	5150	3534	−8101	15 107	5·6	−13	24
2009	261	−3759	4137	633	−3299	4576	841	−3601	4278	356	−3593	4289	1524	−14 252	17 280	2·4	−22	27
2010	3	−4266	4271	776	−3491	5045	955	−3884	4647	1078	−3219	5312	2239	−14 860	19 275	3·5	−23	30
2011	0	−4246	4246	2273	−1965	6520	133	−4189	4299	985	−3281	5216	3315	−13 681	20 281	5·2	−21	32
Average	291	−3685	4110	1223	−2671	5122	643**	−3891	4408	916	−3002	4794	2511	−11 592	16 518	4·0	−18	26
	297	−3670	4104	1341	−2546	5231	544	−4037	4473	1027	−2884	4895	2708

 

 

 

Average flu deaths in Thailand from 2006 to 2011 is 2708 deaths yet no shutdowns occurred Why?Well obviously it's less deadly.

 

 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

20 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

I haven't changed anything.... 

 

Are you on drugs !!!

Can I have some I've run out!

[cornishcarlos]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Can I have some I've run out!

 

No... Otherwise you'll start spouting drivel too !!

One is enough...

[Thailand]

Said it was interesting didn't I ?  ????

[RJRS1301]

4 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

But for how long and doesn't that also happen with flu pandemics?Are we to start having global shutdowns so we can be seen to be fair to those 400,000 who die each year of the Flu?Have autopsies been performed on these people to confirm the actual cause of death?

It is the rate of contagion, the over burdening on hospitals. The deaths of frontline workers, the draining on scarce resources. 

They do not build field hospitals and dig trenches in NYC to bury the dead in a "normal" flu season

 

Fortunately Thailand appears at this point in time to be escaping the major disaster, which cannot be said for so many other countries

Edited April 12, 2020 by RJRS1301

[FarFlungFalang]

25 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

No... Otherwise you'll start spouting drivel too !!

One is enough...

I have empirical evidence I've been spouting drivel without cause as can be seen from my numerous posts on this and every other thread I've posted on,so please and when on drugs I don't post so it will actually have the opposite effect!

[Rancid]

The Covid reaction from most governments has largely been a fear reaction, fear of not being re-elected. Seems there are lots of statistics floating around, some countries have it mild and others much worse. Re two bad ones, Italy has said the actual covid deaths are actually 10% of the total deaths. In the US a couple of doctors have come out and said they have been told by CDC to record all deaths as covid. So appears western stats are as dodgy as Chinese stats.

Death rates appear somewhere between .035% and 1%, it is worse than the flu, but not as dramatically as made out. Also it seems to target more the old and those with other problems, whereas the flu is more general.

Some believe its a pandemic that will kill us all, others that its just a nasty flu, some a Chinese plot with others a US plot, and then of course others who think lizard aliens started it all.

In Oz the progressive press were all screaming for lock downs for years until a vaccine appears. Now the meme is shifting to gradual release of lock downs, except the vulnerable, until everybody gets natural immunity. Why, because closing borders and lock downs will eventually kill the economy completely, and there may never even be a vaccine. Great Depression Part II is starting to look more like a worse option.