Thailand cannot lower its guard despite declining Covid-19 trend

[Urawatakoyaki]

4 hours ago, jimbob123 said:

Does the reporter not check their stats? Appalling journalism. Numbers all over the place and contradictory. Like a low ability school child science report. 

In what way contradictory? 

[Brunolem]

11 minutes ago, Robert Tyrrell said:

 

Secondly, There is NO !! Mention of Asymptomatic people.

These are people showing no signs of infection visibly Fever , Cough etc... that can still be infected and spreading the virus , I’m greatly concerned with lack of both questions I’ve asked !!
 

If you watch the news on Thai TV, there is a very good presentation by the government every day at 11.30

 

There are plenty of charts, and you can all the details you ask for, and more. 

[micmichd]

5 hours ago, Chazar said:

makes  no  sense

Makes sense if you see it as a non-linear wave. 

[siamsev]

3 hours ago, bkk_mike said:

The wearing of masks means that asymptomatic/presymptomatic people aren't breathing out virus on others - which is the main reason this virus has spread so much more widely than 2002 SARS which was only contagious if you were showing symptoms.

 

The virus probably doesn't cope well outside in Thailand (because of the combination of heat and humidity - and UV from the sun), so if people aren't going into air-conditioned offices / shopping malls and aren't travelling together without masks in buses or the BTS or metro in Bangkok, and aren't eating in indoor restaurants or going to boxing matches indoors, where exactly is the mass spread that would raise the numbers going to happen?

 

You can hide (or miss) infected people by not doing mass testing. But you can't hide a large increase in dead bodies - so something is working here that isn't working in Europe or the USA.

 

 

Masks are still not seen as a convincing way of stopping the virus spreading but have maybe slowed down the spread.  However, the climate in surrounding ASEAN countries is similar to Thailand's and there the virus is still spreading (this despite Singapore being congratulated on the measures it has taken to contain the virus.)  Offices in town are still full - my wife is in one - and the cars on the road maybe less but that is because the bosses are staying home not the worker bees.  The closing of malls, parks, boxing etc was all smart but testing is not being done as much as it should (I have a friend in hospital with pneumonia and they won't test her!) while in Isarn there are now reports on Thai social media of large amounts of pneumonia cases in the local hospitals.  There is pressure on  the govt to open up again because of the economy (international schools are revving their engines with one school telling their staff to be ready for May 1st) and all of this will bare on the govts future decisions.  April 30th will be the big test for the government. Are the numbers true?  This is a country who have lied about numbers of dead and missing before (2010 anyone) and in the South as well. I am sure the numbers are lower than in Europe and the States but I am sceptical that the numbers are as low as they are.

[cornishcarlos]

Singapore has a 10th of the Thai population. Similar climate. Much more disciplined people and have been testing, tracing and isolating for a long time. Yet their numbers are much higher than Thailand's.. A big percentage in the last few days have been clusters in workers dormitories but the local cases are still rising... Maybe Thailand got the Chinese version and Singapore got the Italian one ??

 

 

[Max69xl]

5 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

If they aren't being honest, then they are risking a major catastrophe...

The numbers seem to be declining too consistently, as if they are on a tight schedule to re-open or something !!!

In the end of last week they had only done ~80,000 tests in Thailand,which is a ridiculously low number when we're talking about a country with ~69 million people. The number of official cases can easily be at least 10 times higher. 

[sparticus1]

4 hours ago, bkk_mike said:

The wearing of masks means that asymptomatic/presymptomatic people aren't breathing out virus on others - which is the main reason this virus has spread so much more widely than 2002 SARS which was only contagious if you were showing symptoms.

 

The virus probably doesn't cope well outside in Thailand (because of the combination of heat and humidity - and UV from the sun), so if people aren't going into air-conditioned offices / shopping malls and aren't travelling together without masks in buses or the BTS or metro in Bangkok, and aren't eating in indoor restaurants or going to boxing matches indoors, where exactly is the mass spread that would raise the numbers going to happen?

 

You can hide (or miss) infected people by not doing mass testing. But you can't hide a large increase in dead bodies - so something is working here that isn't working in Europe or the USA.

All Asian countries seem to tell people what they want to hear. Not, what they should be telling people. The figures are declining on a too perfect scale. So, really?

 

 

[Yadon Toploy]

18 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

In the end of last week they had only done ~80,000 tests in Thailand,which is a ridiculously low number when we're talking about a country with ~69 million people. The number of official cases can easily be at least 10 times higher. 

After the news came out about the PR firm doctoring test figures, and no-one knows who hired them, I would be reluctant to believe that they have even tested that many.

[chrisinth]

I don't know, perhaps its just me but I see a lot of people following the numbers and expecting the Covid-19 to suddenly stop.

 

IMO, the measures the majority of the countries on Earth are taking is to slow the spread of the virus to help preserve their health systems. The virus will not be 'stopped' until an effective vaccine has been developed, tested and distributed worldwide. Even then, just speculating here, there is probably a real chance of this mutating as well.

 

Governments should not have the right to play on words and disguise 'slowdown' to promote (falsely) 'stopping' of the virus.

 

The proof of understanding will come as we transition from our current position of self isolation/social distancing/travel restrictions/curfew back to a normal life style.

 

And, IMO again, this will depend largely on the importance of economies vs saving lives. This is another real concern.

Edited April 13, 2020 by chrisinth

[Jajazazajaja]

20 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

In the end of last week they had only done ~80,000 tests in Thailand,which is a ridiculously low number when we're talking about a country with ~69 million people. The number of official cases can easily be at least 10 times higher. 

pointless speculation based on nothing whatsoever 

[metisdead]

A post using a trolling image has been removed. 

[Kaopad999]

Welcome to the new world. 

34 minutes ago, chrisinth said:

I don't know, perhaps its just me but I see a lot of people following the numbers and expecting the Covid-19 to suddenly stop.

 

IMO, the measures the majority of the countries on Earth are taking is to slow the spread of the virus to help preserve their health systems. The virus will not be 'stopped' until an effective vaccine has been developed, tested and distributed worldwide. Even then, just speculating here, there is probably a real chance of this mutating as well.

 

Governments should not have the right to play on words and disguise 'slowdown' to promote (falsely) 'stopping' of the virus.

 

The proof of understanding will come as we transition from our current position of self isolation/social distancing/travel restrictions/curfew back to a normal life style.

 

And, IMO again, this will depend largely on the importance of economies vs saving lives. This is another real concern.

And for that reason i don't think there will be any "back to normal" lifestyle until the there is a vaccine for the virus. 

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, joebrown said:

Makes me wonder whether all Covid19 deaths are being recorded as such!

Of course they are not! Not anywhere. That isn't the question. The question is to what degree. 

[Kaopad999]

I think we are going to have to endure this for a lot longer than people are wishing for. People who own bars and  any other type of nighttime entertainment venues are going to be in deep, deep trouble. I certainly feel for them!  

[Traubert]

4 hours ago, kwonitoy said:

So if you go to this website it says Phuket has 34 confirmed cases

https://covidtracker.5lab.co/

 

But if you go to CNN there's an article about Phuket being a virus hotspot with over 170 confirmed cases

https://edition.cnn.com/

 

I believe neither number to be honest

Neither should you. Any old freak can load stuff onto the web. ????

 

And boy, they do. Some even believe it.

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, cornishcarlos said:

Singapore has a 10th of the Thai population. Similar climate. Much more disciplined people and have been testing, tracing and isolating for a long time. Yet their numbers are much higher than Thailand's.. A big percentage in the last few days have been clusters in workers dormitories but the local cases are still rising... Maybe Thailand got the Chinese version and Singapore got the Italian one ??

 

 

 

Singapore waited much longer than Thailand to close everything...not long ago they still had the schools open...

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, Sean60 said:

Happy Songkran everyone.

This is great news regardless of numbers being correct or not.

We need to start planning for reopening the economy. Global recession is around the corner and you need to prepare for it. 

 

I don't.

[Yadon Toploy]

22 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

I think we are going to have to endure this for a lot longer than people are wishing for. People who own bars and  any other type of nighttime entertainment venues are going to be in deep, deep trouble. I certainly feel for them!  

Agreed. Those businesses are done. 

 

Businesses relying on income from tourism outwith the Chinese are done. It will be a long time before people will want to, or be able to afford to travel to Asia again, the few better off backpackers and ardent sex-tourists aside.

 

Manufacturing will be next to feel the hit as demand for motor vehicles drops significantly. Domestic demand will not be there and certainly not enough to open those factories that have just closed again.

 

There's a massive storm on the horizon and we can't see the wood for the trees.

[Yadon Toploy]

3 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Singapore waited much longer than Thailand to close everything...not long ago they still had the schools open...

Erm, no. 

 

I was in Singapore mid-Feb and they were already implementing closures then, weeks before Thailand.

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, kwak250 said:

Return to the u.k?

Not at the moment I am better off here...

I do not believe you are better off anywhere at the moment. I returned to the uk for now, Reason ? I do not believe that Thailand would take the same care of me if i DID get sick. Simple as that. UK has a better health system than Thailand. I seriously fear many Farang either with no insurance (and no matter what they say they will find a way to fleece you) and those with no visa are going to have a seriously bad time. You may well get hospitalised due to Covid - BUT you may well get the bill for heart or lung conditions.

 

Simply put, if I used my saving on hospital bills, i would no longer be able to stay in Thailand after, and I need to support me family.

Edited April 13, 2020 by RichardColeman

[G950]

Government figures around the world are always a little hard to believe, but Thailand does seem to have relatively few cases. There simply isn't overflowing hospitals, morgues or Ambulances in the streets. 

 

Some countries have dodged a bullet with relatively few cases, most seem to be in Southern Hemisphere, hot climates or Asian countries previously hit by SARS/MERS etc so had better plans in place. Through luck or good management Thailand seems to have relatively few cases. 

 

 

[cornishcarlos]

4 minutes ago, Yadon Toploy said:

Erm, no. 

 

I was in Singapore mid-Feb and they were already implementing closures then, weeks before Thailand.

 

Correct and they didn't let returnees run off back to their villages ????

[Yadon Toploy]

We must also remember someone has hired PR firms to promote the good work the government is doing regarding the crisis, so we are never going to hear anything too negative that will damage the image.

[Kaopad999]

48 minutes ago, Yadon Toploy said:

Agreed. Those businesses are done. 

 

Businesses relying on income from tourism outwith the Chinese are done. It will be a long time before people will want to, or be able to afford to travel to Asia again, the few better off backpackers and ardent sex-tourists aside.

 

Manufacturing will be next to feel the hit as demand for motor vehicles drops significantly. Domestic demand will not be there and certainly not enough to open those factories that have just closed again.

 

There's a massive storm on the horizon and we can't see the wood for the trees.

Yes, well it was already on the decline pre-Covid-19. This will be the nail in the coffin. Nightlife is one of the main reasons why tourist like to visit Thailand. Without that, then what does it have to offer for young travelers? many other countries offer cleaner beaches, safer roads, no rabid soi dogs, and mountains you can hike without being chocked to death by the pollution. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Kaopad999

[Brunolem]

52 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Correct and they didn't let returnees run off back to their villages ????

And yet...here we are...

[P100]

A clear warning. No number in Thailand get better. If they have lower numbers then because they test less.  The corona virus has 2 to 4 weeks of incubation time. How on earth can anyone say after a partial lockdown for a few days numbers get already better?! You only will see this -if the measures were working- long after the incubation time has ended and not now! You have lockdown now? You will see the result in 3-4 weeks from now. Why european countries have multi-months lockdowns? Thai corona is different?? Different is only that Thai government is lying to tge public much more that other governments might do.

[DrTuner]

8 hours ago, Chazar said:

makes  no  sense

Makes perfect sense. The "confirmed" numbers are only the tip of the iceberg and MoPH has other data, which indicates the need for hard measures. We, the mere mortals, only have their propagandist confirmed count, which can be adjusted to whtever they like by controlling the number of tests done at the reference laboratories (and they stopped publishing the pending test number weeks ago).

[spermwhale]

8 hours ago, jimbob123 said:

Does the reporter not check their stats? Appalling journalism. Numbers all over the place and contradictory. Like a low ability school child science report. 

I worked at The Nation and the Bangkok Post as a sub-editor and I can guarantee you that Thai journalists DO NOT check their facts. They are spoon-fed information by the people holding press conferences and they never question the numbers or ask them to drill down further. And they never make calls to get official statistics. 

If you'll notice in many stories, there is often one source. 

[mok199]

I thought thais had amulets,merrit, lucky numbers and temples for this....I AM OUT OF BEER!!!

Edited April 13, 2020 by mok199

[drguid]

I'm in the UK right now. It's pretty scary and I'm dreading the Autumn. I had a sore throat a couple of days ago. I was convinced I got the virus from the chip n pin machine in Sainsburys. I doubt the checkouts are ever cleaned in supermarkets. The only worker in there wearing a mask was an Asian. I got some backchat from a guy telling me that "masks don't work". I asked him where he did his PhD in microbiology.

 

Having said that I live on the seafront and it's good to see so many ordinary people taking the lockdown seriously. About the only people I see out are people in wheelchairs with many underlying health problems (I kid you not...).

 

I have some doubt about Thailand's figures. On the other hand viruses don't seem to like the climate. I had a cold once in Bangkok and it went in a couple of days. This might be bro science but if you look at the UK's stats the virus seems to be fizzling out in the SouthEast and SouthWest where we've been blessed with pretty much non-stop sunshine and unseasonably warm weather.

 

I have no idea where Thailand goes from here but tourism is effectively dead for this year and next. Thank goodness they pumped the majority of all that money from the boom decade into pretty hi-rise apartment buildings.