As death toll soars, UK finance minister warns economy could shrink by 30%: report

[snoop1130]

As death toll soars, UK finance minister warns economy could shrink by 30%: report

By Estelle Shirbon

 

An ambulance is seen outside the NHS Nightingale Hospital at the Excel Centre in London, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, London, Britain, April 13, 2020. REUTERS/John Sibley

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s finance minister has told colleagues the economy could shrink by up to 30% this quarter because of the coronavirus lockdown, a newspaper reported, as the soaring death toll gave little hope restrictions would soon be lifted.

 

The number of COVID-19 deaths in hospitals across the United Kingdom has passed 10,000 and a senior scientific adviser to the government has said the country risked becoming the worst-hit in Europe.

 

The government has had to defend its response to the outbreak, with complaints of insufficient testing, a dearth of protective kit for medics and questions about whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson was too slow to impose a lockdown.

 

Johnson was starting his convalescence from the disease at his country residence on Monday after leaving hospital the previous day, with no clarity on when he would return to work.

 

In a deeply personal video message posted on Twitter shortly after he was discharged from St Thomas’ Hospital, where he had spent a week including three nights in intensive care, Johnson said “things could have gone either way” for him.

 

He thanked the public for adhering to strict social distancing measures, saying their efforts were worth it and had created a “human shield” around the state-run health service by reducing the spread of the new coronavirus.

 

While there was widespread sympathy for Johnson across the political spectrum over his illness, the upbeat tone of his message could not disguise the gravity of the choices now facing his government while he is away from his desk.

 

With foreign minister Dominic Raab deputising for him, but without the full authority of a prime minister, the government faced excruciating trade-offs between the needs of the health service and of the economy, with national morale also at stake.

 

The Times newspaper reported that Rishi Sunak, the finance minister, had discussed with colleagues the possibility that Gross Domestic Product would shrink by 25 to 30 percent between April and June.

 

A Treasury spokesman declined to comment on the report.

 

Citing unnamed ministers, the Times reported that Sunak and others were pushing for social distancing measures to be relaxed for the sake of the economy, while others were resisting because of the risk of exacerbating the coronavirus outbreak.

 

A review of the current measures, which have been in place since March 23, is scheduled to take place this week. The government is widely expected to extend them.

 

SLOW DELIVERY

 

The Treasury said in a statement that its emergency funding for public services now totalled 14 billion pounds ($17 billion), up from 5 billion pounds announced in Sunak’s annual budget before the lockdown was imposed.

 

That includes funding for the National Health Service and for local authorities, who provide social care for elderly people.

 

The Treasury spokesman said the figure of 14 billion pounds included some new funding and some previously announced, and represented a tally of everything that had been decided so far.

 

“Our public services and its incredible workers are working with immense resolve and skill to keep us safe,” Sunak was quoted as saying in the statement.

 

“We depend on them, which is why we are doing everything we can to provide our NHS, local authorities and others, with the resources and tools they need to tackle the virus.”

 

Working in tandem, the Treasury and the Bank of England have announced a package of measures to stop the economy and labour market from collapsing, but there have been complaints that delivery is slow and patchy.

 

Business minister Alok Sharma has said that 4,200 small and medium-sized businesses had received rescue loans as part of the government’s coronavirus business interruption loan scheme, out of a total of 300,000 firms that have made inquiries about it.

 

When it was put to him during a BBC interview on Sunday that the firms that had received financing represented just 1.4% of those seeking help, he did not dispute that figure.

 

Announced nearly three weeks ago by Sunak, the scheme is designed to help small and medium firms with loans of up to 5 million pounds each.

 

Ed Miliband, the opposition Labour Party’s newly appointed business policy chief, said the government should overhaul the scheme and underwite 100% of smaller loans.

 

“The risk of doing too little too slowly is much greater than the risk of doing too much, too quickly,” he said on Twitter.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-13

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[jesimps]

Any UK high-ranking financial political positions should come with a gag. If these people have an opinion, they should keep it to themseves, because the financial markets only need a whiff of a problem to short the currency. Of course, it's us expats who suffer for it. No other country seems to talk down their currency the same as us Brits do. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by jesimps

[rupert the bear]

the UK economy is shooting itself in the foot,basically the much vaunted NHS is a dead duck and has been for yrs,its the real problem.all this luftwaffe over st pauls propaganda is just that,500 000 volunteers to make it work speaks volumes.we dont see that in any other EU country.the nos of dead are small 11k in a pop of 65 million.if eventually 20k die that as a %age is.....approx 0.03% ,other countries have similar problems and are moving forward IE spain and austria.the counting and info is so vague,very ill people who are then contracting the disease are counted as corona victims but they would be fine if they didnt have these bad diseases,its a bit thin.one illustrious gov expert said 60% of dead would have been dead by xmas anyway.according to statistics i read in the daily telegraph average deaths for this time of yr are a little lower than normal,i guess due to little flu etc as people are not mixing and wearing masks etc.so decision time-throw away your currency ,savings, pensions, job, career,business and future or get on with it. so few die.its all about the 99.9% of us.the govt is very handy with the war comparison.so people die.the somme ,3rd ypres.more in a morning than ever will die in this and all young and fit,please pass on this war comparison its rather pathetic.the people who went thru that were not snowflakes.its insulting to them.

[transam]

7 minutes ago, rupert the bear said:

the UK economy is shooting itself in the foot,basically the much vaunted NHS is a dead duck and has been for yrs,its the real problem.all this luftwaffe over st pauls propaganda is just that,500 000 volunteers to make it work speaks volumes.we dont see that in any other EU country.the nos of dead are small 11k in a pop of 65 million.if eventually 20k die that as a %age is.....approx 0.03% ,other countries have similar problems and are moving forward IE spain and austria.the counting and info is so vague,very ill people who are then contracting the disease are counted as corona victims but they would be fine if they didnt have these bad diseases,its a bit thin.one illustrious gov expert said 60% of dead would have been dead by xmas anyway.according to statistics i read in the daily telegraph average deaths for this time of yr are a little lower than normal,i guess due to little flu etc as people are not mixing and wearing masks etc.so decision time-throw away your currency ,savings, pensions, job, career,business and future or get on with it. so few die.its all about the 99.9% of us.the govt is very handy with the war comparison.so people die.the somme ,3rd ypres.more in a morning than ever will die in this and all young and fit,please pass on this war comparison its rather pathetic.the people who went thru that were not snowflakes.its insulting to them.

Orifice, talking out of....................

[Baerboxer]

5 hours ago, jesimps said:

Any UK high-ranking financial political positions should come with a gag. If these people have an opinion, they should keep it to themseves, because the financial markets only need a whiff of a problem to short the currency. Of course, it's us expats who suffer for it. No other country seems to talk down their currency the same as us Brits do. 

 

I agree with you. But often wonder how many of these "unnamed sources" are really just journalists speculating and trying to create fires that need putting out and of course reporting on?

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, rupert the bear said:

the UK economy is shooting itself in the foot,basically the much vaunted NHS is a dead duck and has been for yrs,its the real problem.all this luftwaffe over st pauls propaganda is just that,500 000 volunteers to make it work speaks volumes.we dont see that in any other EU country.the nos of dead are small 11k in a pop of 65 million.if eventually 20k die that as a %age is.....approx 0.03% ,other countries have similar problems and are moving forward IE spain and austria.the counting and info is so vague,very ill people who are then contracting the disease are counted as corona victims but they would be fine if they didnt have these bad diseases,its a bit thin.one illustrious gov expert said 60% of dead would have been dead by xmas anyway.according to statistics i read in the daily telegraph average deaths for this time of yr are a little lower than normal,i guess due to little flu etc as people are not mixing and wearing masks etc.so decision time-throw away your currency ,savings, pensions, job, career,business and future or get on with it. so few die.its all about the 99.9% of us.the govt is very handy with the war comparison.so people die.the somme ,3rd ypres.more in a morning than ever will die in this and all young and fit,please pass on this war comparison its rather pathetic.the people who went thru that were not snowflakes.its insulting to them.

 

You see, banning alcohol sales doesn't mean people don't already have large stocks!

[CharlieH]

A reported callous remark and responses removed, also Troll comment.

[Krataiboy]

Boris should have stuck to his original idea of achieving herd immunity by following the lead of countries like Sweden.

 

Instead he allowed himself to be panicked into trying to "flatten the curve" prematurely - a strategy will extend the life cycle of the pandemic, with predictably catastrophic results for the economy and the lives of UK citizens.

 

Unless, the virus miraculously peters out completely before the schools reopen, Brits can look forward to suffering a second wave of sickness and deaths, along with a spiralling economy and further inroads into civil rights.

 

 

[Yinn]

22 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The government has had to defend its response to the outbreak, with complaints of insufficient testing, a dearth of protective kit for medics and questions about whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson was too slow to impose a lockdown.

Many doctor and nurse die now. Very sad.

Will be 30,000+ die in UK.

 

RIP

[transam]

5 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Many doctor and nurse die now. Very sad.

Will be 30,000+ die in UK.

 

RIP

You posted that young people will not die, you were very wrong about that, weren't you.....? ????

 

[stevenl]

10 hours ago, jesimps said:

Any UK high-ranking financial political positions should come with a gag. If these people have an opinion, they should keep it to themseves, because the financial markets only need a whiff of a problem to short the currency. Of course, it's us expats who suffer for it. No other country seems to talk down their currency the same as us Brits do. 

Unfortunately for you it is not talking down that is the issue, it is the UK economy.

[johnnybangkok]

32 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

Boris should have stuck to his original idea of achieving herd immunity by following the lead of countries like Sweden.

 

Instead he allowed himself to be panicked into trying to "flatten the curve" prematurely - a strategy will extend the life cycle of the pandemic, with predictably catastrophic results for the economy and the lives of UK citizens.

 

Unless, the virus miraculously peters out completely before the schools reopen, Brits can look forward to suffering a second wave of sickness and deaths, along with a spiralling economy and further inroads into civil rights.

 

 

If any of the 250,000 people predicted to die through the herd immunity option was either yourself or a close relative, I wonder whether you would still think it was such a good idea.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid-19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

......the resulting epidemic would still likely result in an estimated 250,000 deaths and therefore overwhelm the health system (most notably intensive care units).  

[Krataiboy]

33 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

If any of the 250,000 people predicted to die through the herd immunity option was either yourself or a close relative, I wonder whether you would still think it was such a good idea.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid-19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

......the resulting epidemic would still likely result in an estimated 250,000 deaths and therefore overwhelm the health system (most notably intensive care units).  

Not the most reliable source on the planet when it comes to predictions. Try this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

 

[tjinks]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

Not the most reliable source on the planet when it comes to predictions. Try this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

 

Are you drinking this guy's Kool Aid?

[Henryford]

Death toll "soars" ha ha. It is about 2% of the people who die EVERY year. Most of these people would have died anyway. Each death is costing the UK 10s of millions of Pounds. Covid19 is the biggest con in history.

[stevenl]

19 minutes ago, BigC said:

Biggest  problem  is illegal migrants  bringing  the decease  over and mosque gatherings and UK police  using their stupifdheads to fight the virus 

Yes, blame it on the immigrants.

[Krataiboy]

17 hours ago, tjinks said:

Are you drinking this guy's Kool Aid?

Why not. Let's have your expert input.

[Krataiboy]

21 hours ago, Yinn said:

Many doctor and nurse die now. Very sad.

Will be 30,000+ die in UK.

 

RIP

At least preferable to the 400,000 forecast by one of the UK's leading health experts, which prompted the UK government's economy-wrecking lockdown.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Krataiboy

[BigC]

8 hours ago, stevenl said:

Yes, blame it on the immigrants.

Thats right i am  glad you agree

 

I don't  remember  the virus  starting  in the UK?

 

Plus now hit Africa  and swarms of illegal migrants crossing  is a real problem 

[johnnybangkok]

On 4/15/2020 at 3:01 PM, Krataiboy said:

At least preferable to the 400,000 forecast by one of the UK's leading health experts, which prompted the UK government's economy-wrecking lockdown.

So you applaud the fact the deaths will be greatly reduced but bemoan the 'economy-wrecking lockdown'.

You do understand that the lockdown is the reason that deaths will be greatly reduced and an unfortunate by-product is the damage to the economy? You simply cannot have it both ways. The UK government started down the track of limited lockdowns and herd immunity but when the numbers came back (250,000 to 400,000) deaths, they rightfully changed tack.    

[Krataiboy]

7 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:

So you applaud the fact the deaths will be greatly reduced but bemoan the 'economy-wrecking lockdown'.

You do understand that the lockdown is the reason that deaths will be greatly reduced and an unfortunate by-product is the damage to the economy? You simply cannot have it both ways. The UK government started down the track of limited lockdowns and herd immunity but when the numbers came back (250,000 to 400,000) deaths, they rightfully changed tack.    

It is not a matter of having it both ways.

 

There is no evidence, so far as I am aware, to prove the lockdown has reduced mortality from what it might have been without one. 

 

There is, on the other hand, a great deal of evidence of the massive harm - social as well as economic - being wrought by keeping the nation housebound.

[Thongkorn]

On 4/15/2020 at 6:06 AM, stevenl said:

Yes, blame it on the immigrants.

AS reported in British papers  today, The  Sun and a few others

15,000 a day are still arriving in the UK with no health cheaks,  along with  150 Fruit pickers from Romania.

[johnnybangkok]

47 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

It is not a matter of having it both ways.

 

There is no evidence, so far as I am aware, to prove the lockdown has reduced mortality from what it might have been without one. 

 

There is, on the other hand, a great deal of evidence of the massive harm - social as well as economic - being wrought by keeping the nation housebound.

Oh please.

Literally every country in the world has reported the positive steps self-isolation has had with the spreading of Covid with Italy (one of the worts affected countries) showing a slowdown in infection since self-isolation https://www.france24.com/en/20200412-italy-sees-fewest-new-covid-19-deaths-since-march-as-infections-slow.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/italy-extends-lockdown-amid-signs-coronavirus-infection-rate-is-easing

Even China has shown the benefit of self-isolation and is very near returning to normal (I have an office in Shanghai so can personally confirm this)   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/life-after-lockdown-has-china-really-beaten-coronavirus.

Covid is spread like any common cold or flu so it obviously makes sense that by eliminating the close proximaty of people, the virus has no where to go. However, this doesn't mean we are out of the woods yet and some sort of herd immunity will still have to be achieved if we are not to see this return time and time again. And obviously the serios economic impact has to be balanced with the saving of lives. 

I've said it before though and I'll say it again; the economy will bounce back, but there's no bouncing back from death.

 

 

[Krataiboy]

1 hour ago, johnnybangkok said:

Oh please.

Literally every country in the world has reported the positive steps self-isolation has had with the spreading of Covid with Italy (one of the worts affected countries) showing a slowdown in infection since self-isolation https://www.france24.com/en/20200412-italy-sees-fewest-new-covid-19-deaths-since-march-as-infections-slow.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/italy-extends-lockdown-amid-signs-coronavirus-infection-rate-is-easing

Even China has shown the benefit of self-isolation and is very near returning to normal (I have an office in Shanghai so can personally confirm this)   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/life-after-lockdown-has-china-really-beaten-coronavirus.

Covid is spread like any common cold or flu so it obviously makes sense that by eliminating the close proximaty of people, the virus has no where to go. However, this doesn't mean we are out of the woods yet and some sort of herd immunity will still have to be achieved if we are not to see this return time and time again. And obviously the serios economic impact has to be balanced with the saving of lives. 

I've said it before though and I'll say it again; the economy will bounce back, but there's no bouncing back from death.

 

 

I repeat, there is no credible evidence that those countries which have lockdowns would not be better off without them. One has to balance any upsides of this dubious strategy against the many downsides, which which remain to haunt us long after the virus is only able to infect the history books.

Maybe you should ask those excuses for journalists employed by the newspaper you cite about their failure to report success stories from the numerous countries - at least 21 at the last count - which have decided against shutting their citizens away like naughty children yet don't even have double-figure deaths. 

Interestingly, the Grauniad and the rest of MSM continue to play up over the continuing high death rates in those lockdown-loving nations, like the UK, US, Spain, you seem to think are doing so well.

There's worse just around the corner. Health experts are now warning that using the lockdown hammer to crack a relative walnut of a pandemic is stoking up health (mental, especially) problems for the future. 

The video to which have provided a link will hopefully lift the spirits of at least some of the millions of scared and anxious victims enduring government-induced house arrest with only the mass media's relentless fear-mongering for company.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmHRYzF0dyQ&t=17s

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Krataiboy

[johnnybangkok]

On 4/17/2020 at 7:01 PM, Krataiboy said:

I repeat, there is no credible evidence that those countries which have lockdowns would not be better off without them. One has to balance any upsides of this dubious strategy against the many downsides, which which remain to haunt us long after the virus is only able to infect the history books.

Maybe you should ask those excuses for journalists employed by the newspaper you cite about their failure to report success stories from the numerous countries - at least 21 at the last count - which have decided against shutting their citizens away like naughty children yet don't even have double-figure deaths. 

Interestingly, the Grauniad and the rest of MSM continue to play up over the continuing high death rates in those lockdown-loving nations, like the UK, US, Spain, you seem to think are doing so well.

There's worse just around the corner. Health experts are now warning that using the lockdown hammer to crack a relative walnut of a pandemic is stoking up health (mental, especially) problems for the future. 

The video to which have provided a link will hopefully lift the spirits of at least some of the millions of scared and anxious victims enduring government-induced house arrest with only the mass media's relentless fear-mongering for company.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmHRYzF0dyQ&t=17s

 

I don't disagree with the need to get back to normal and save the world economy but I do disagree with there 'is no credible evidence that those countries which have lockdowns would not be better off without them'.

Most experts agree though that the RO for Covid is approx 2-3 times greater than seasonal flu and mortality is 20-30 times more (flu has 0.1% mortality, Covid anywhere between 2 and 3%, higher of course for at risk groups). This is why it is so worrying and why when you extrapulate the numbers out, without current measures of self-isolation and social distancing, you would see much, much higher amounts of death and if tens of millions of people become sick and millions die, the economy suffers, and not just because the workforce is being depleted. Widespread fear is bad for business: consumers won’t flock back to restaurants, book air travel, or spend on activities that might put them at risk of getting sick. 

However, I absolutely agree that the current lockdown cannot continue for much longer. The overall economic impact of the lockdown is causing far too much hardship already and if left for any longer, will literally decimate the world economy. But how to get back to 'normal', withought putting too many people at risk? Here are my suggestions:-

1. Those deemed 'most at risk' must continue to self-isolate until either the crisis abates or a vacine is found.

2. All people on the 'front line' must be adequately protected, meaning mask and gowns and anything else they need is readily available.

3. Borders must open but only people with a valid health certificate (dated within the last 2 weeks) are allowed to travel.

4. Testing MUST be ramped up, with those testing positive forced to self-isolate (or admitted to hospital if particularly bad). To this end, large amounts of government funds need to be deployed to testing, either from existing 'emergency funds' or seperate funds. For example if the US put $100 billion of the $2 trillion stimulus to testing, it would be able to test enough people to get on top of the outbreak. Testing machines (from the likes of Cepheid and Roche), can handle 4,200 tests a day; build five thousand of those machines, and you can test 20 million people a day. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both.

6. Emulate successful countries like South Korea, who have managed to mitigate the deadlier effects of the virus whilst still keeping much of their economy open. Behind its success has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success.

 

The issue right now though is many countries don't have the means for mass testing, hence the only measure open to them; lockdown. Sensible heads though can come up with sensible and effective measures once countries catch up and get ahead of this pandemic. This will unfortuantely, still take some time.

 

Note to moderator - I have used some of these stats and conclusions in anothe post so hopefully I will be allowed to repeat them here as they are essentially the same stats for a similar debate.  

[Krataiboy]

Whether "most experts agree" about anything related to this enigmatic virus is debatable. Certainly an awful lot of them take issue with the stats you quote comparing it to different flu strains which proved more deadly than the current coronavirus outbreak.

 

Your belief that we need mass testing to "get ahead" of the virus ignores the fact that at least 21 countries have achieved admirable results without resorting to this. Health certificates to travel are playing into the hands of Big Brother Bill Gates and his chums. No thanks.

 

I recommend this short video, which pretty well reflects my view of my own government's disproportional response to the pandemic - or as some who suspect its origins re calling it - plandemic. How very dare they!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by Krataiboy

[Bruntoid]

On 4/15/2020 at 8:27 PM, BigC said:

Thats right i am  glad you agree

 

I don't  remember  the virus  starting  in the UK?

 

Plus now hit Africa  and swarms of illegal migrants crossing  is a real problem 

The same 20,000 Rumanians immigrants who are currently being begged to come and pick UK vegetables by Boris and co on hastily chartered special flights because the racists chased them out in the first place ?  Those ones ? 

[WalkingOrders]

Its because of that Boris Johnson and all of his half brain dead drunkard racist supporters

 

... just kidding...

 

this threat doesn't deal with Donald Trump.. or the USA and I'm not like you...not one bit.

 

 

Good luck over there!

[Bruntoid]

On 4/15/2020 at 11:55 AM, Henryford said:

Death toll "soars" ha ha. It is about 2% of the people who die EVERY year. Most of these people would have died anyway. Each death is costing the UK 10s of millions of Pounds. Covid19 is the biggest con in history.

And given there’s no cure, if eventually everyone got it what do you think would be the percentage then ? 
 

jesus wept ! 

[BigC]

On 4/19/2020 at 4:45 PM, Bruntoid said:

The same 20,000 Rumanians immigrants who are currently being begged to come and pick UK vegetables by Boris and co on hastily chartered special flights because the racists chased them out in the first place ?  Those ones ? 

Stop  using the word racist 

 

I live and have a thai family for <deleted> sake

 

I am nationalist  not a racist

 

I beleivein putting our own people first

 

How many English  people working and being treated as good as we treat ridf raff foreigners  in UK 

 

If we go to Romanian  or any country  whete these  people come from ahd behave like they do

 

How long do you reckon we would last

 

Try complainng i  Romania that  you cannot get a job there because  your white British 

 

They shall laugh you out the country 

And rightly  too

 

Thailand puts thais first

 

I like it 

 

I respect  it

 

Unlike allot if people who come here to moan

 

Like trunp sayss" if you don't  like it leave "