Thai economy could lose over $40 billion if virus crisis goes beyond second quarter

 

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the almost deserted Chinatown, one of the city's top tourist spots, in Bangkok, Thailand March 30, 2020. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand’s economy is expected to lose 1.3 trillion baht (nearly $40 billion), almost all of it in the tourist sector, due to the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic, a banking association said on Tuesday.

 

“But if the outbreak cannot be controlled within the current quarter, the impact will be bigger,” Predee Daochai, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, said in a statement.

 

However, a government package of economic measures worth 1.9 trillion baht should help mitigate the virus impact on Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, Predee said.

 

The central bank has forecast the economy to contract 5.3% this year, which would be the weakest performance since 1998, when the Thailand was ravaged by the Asian financial crisis.

 

Thailand has confirmed 2,613 cases of infection and 41 deaths. It has imposed a nationwide night curfew, having closed malls and bars and discouraged social activities to limit the spread.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-14

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And if they do open the boarders, who is willing to travel on holidays these days? And not only due to fear of infection, people has a lack of funding from jobb loss and there might not ever be any airline operating. Open the boarders but they certainly wont come in any TAT  dream numbers.

29 minutes ago, RotBenz8888 said:

And if they do open the boarders, who is willing to travel on holidays these days? 

 

Answer: Chinese people.

 

buddy can you spare a baht?

16 minutes ago, OnTheGround said:

 

Answer: Chinese people.

And it's easy to predict Anu(s)tins words: "Chinese people would never spread any virus to their Thai friends". 

How many millions will they lose because of Anutins xenophobic remarks?

 

 

Kingdom has enough resources to beat crisis: Thai Bankers Association

By THE NATION

 

 

The Thai Bankers' Association (TBA) estimates the Covid-19 crisis may cost the Thai economy more than Bt1.3 trillion, but says government measures will mitigate the recession.

 

The association believes that the government's measures are timely, comprehensive and effective in cushioning the impact of the contagion crisis.

 

 

It adds that priority should be given to public health, jobs and living conditions, as well as to economic and financial market stability. It forecasts a GDP cut of 7.7 percent if the situation returns to normal quickly, but more than that if the crisis is prolonged.

 

TBA chairman Predee Daochai noted that additional measures launched by the Bank of Thailand (BOT), Finance Ministry and financial institutions on April 7 to assist small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and stabilise the corporate bond market prompted emergency decrees for BOT issuance of soft loans for liquidity, to stabilise the financial sector, and loans for economic relief and rehabilitation.

 

These Phase 3 relief measures will cost Bt1.9 trillion but are deemed "essential".

 

The TBA warned that the tourism sector may bear the brunt of the estimated Bt1.3 trillion Covid-19 impact. Thai tourism could see Bt1.1 trillion wiped off its revenue, which may in turn cause the Thai economy to plunge to 1997 levels or even deeper if the contagion cannot be brought under control within the second quarter of this year. In this case, the economic loss may be worse than what was seen during the Tom Yum Kung crisis in 1997.

 

However, the important difference between the Covid-19 outbreak and the 1997 crisis is that the Thai government has launched “rapid” and “large-scale” measures to prevent the virus situation from worsening.

 

Public health management has been prioritised to contain the spread of infection and treat mounting cases, while people were being assisted with jobs and living conditions, all of which required fiscal intervention.

 

Hence, an emergency decree was issued to enable the government to tap an additional Bt1 trillion from various government agencies’ funds.

 

Also imperative is ensuring stability within the financial market, the TBA says, because the Thai financial market is more closely linked with overseas markets than in 1997.

 

If the Thai financial market was left in tatters, jitters at home and abroad would have substantially dented interest rates and yields in financial markets, thus undermining stability of the financial system as well as businesses and households.

 

The central bank's relief measures worth Bt900 billion are targeted towards establishing the Corporate Bond Stabilisation Fund (BSF) for a corporate bond market worth about 22 percent of GDP. The BSF would help enterprises in need of funds to pay off current debt and bolster business liquidity, says the TBA.

 

The BSF is intended to assist both institutional and retail investors. Small depositors have increasingly put their savings in debt instruments.

 

In addition, the assistance this time around comprises measures to aid the business sector, in particular SMEs – which make up over 99 percent of all businesses in the country, and employ more than 85 percent of the total workforce, or 13 million people – via soft loans and an immediate suspension of principal and interest payments.

 

"We hope that such relief measures will not only offer a new lease of life for businesses, but also sustain employment and mechanisms of some supply chains while everyone is staying at home to combat Covid-19 for the country," said Predee.

 

"I have confidence that numerous actions, related both to financial and fiscal aspects of the government, will help Thailand avoid a steeper economic contraction and grave financial crisis. Although the situation will eventually hinge on when the Covid-19 pandemic ends, I strongly believe that the Thai government still has abundant and sufficient resources to help the economy weather this crisis.”

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30385991

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-15

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If the 5 committees set up to rejig the economy fail. No problem set up 10 committees P can head every one of them.

10 hours ago, rasmus5150 said:

How many millions will they lose because of Anutins xenophobic remarks?

 

 

Hopefully billions

Well, now that´s a really offensive amount of money.

Tourism 15% of annual gdp 

 

When is the tourism industry expected to recover?

 

4 months tourism revenue 5% of gdp
 

There are random numbers and then there is reality.

 

 

Well, I have been trying to transfer some funds from my Thai Bank account overseas for the last 5 days and my Thai Bank is saying "this service is not available right now"

 

Is anyone else having trouble moving funds out of Thailand at the moment?

 

Is this just because it is a Public holiday period, or is this part of their measures to prop up the bank's liquidity and stop money leaving the country?

 

Really frustrating me - was never an issue before.

7 minutes ago, iaminwa said:

Well, I have been trying to transfer some funds from my Thai Bank account overseas for the last 5 days and my Thai Bank is saying "this service is not available right now"

 

Is anyone else having trouble moving funds out of Thailand at the moment?

 

Is this just because it is a Public holiday period, or is this part of their measures to prop up the bank's liquidity and stop money leaving the country?

 

Really frustrating me - was never an issue before.

Public holiday time the call centre will be under staffed...but give em a try anyway.

I wonder how many abandoned skyscrapers like the sathorn unique tower are going to crop up because of this

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The association believes that the government's measures are timely, comprehensive and effective in cushioning the impact of the contagion crisis.

Love the optimism.. 

1 hour ago, Matzzon said:

Well, now that´s a really offensive amount of money.

any thoughts on the actual topic ?

2 hours ago, generealty said:

(The central bank has forecast the economy to contract 5.3% this year) I think this figure is very conservative. The UK are estimating a 25%-30% drop in the UK which seems a more realistic figure for Thailand too

totally agree and when they actually mention 1997 in a financial assessment that rings alarm bells with me, it's like there are two articles contradicting in the OP - gross underestimation of contraction then later completely dire 

14 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

And if they do open the boarders, who is willing to travel on holidays these days? And not only due to fear of infection, people has a lack of funding from jobb loss and there might not ever be any airline operating. Open the boarders but they certainly wont come in any TAT  dream numbers.

There are ways of dreaming up numbers.

43 minutes ago, smedly said:

any thoughts on the actual topic ?

So, how can my opinion about the amount of money not be related to the topic? The scary size of the amount is the most important thing here.

If you not think so, then please explain how I was off topic.

To amuse you and make you happy, I can widen my thoughts and opinion about this. For me it sounds like an astronomic amount to be losing, therefore my comment regarding the offensive size of the losses. However, I am also quite sure of that they have it under control and that they are capable of handling the situation. Yes, maybe it sounds like I put a lot of trust in a country that according to daily discussions are failing both it´s own people and it´s visitors as well as expat community. Although, I do think that they have a rather good understanding of economy and all the factors in the world that controls this.

As stated in the news there is a belief in the government package of 1,9 trillion baht to cover the crisis. If that is going to be enough? That is for the future to show, due to that nobody can have a real figure of the impact the virus outbreak is going to have on the economy. Thailand have a worse situation than other countries, due to that they also have to take the fall of tourism sector before the virus as well as the severe drought situation in the country. That will also have a prolonged impact on the export, due to that rice is a big part of that and the farmers as a result of the drought might, and will, produce a smaller amount.

Then the Central Bank has a forecast of the economy falling 5,3 % this year. This is also pure speculation, according to me. The reason is that we still do not have a clue about when the outbreak is finished, when we have a vaccin or when, alt. if, things are going back to normal as we know it before.

Edited April 15, 20206 yr by Matzzon

Well according to an article in the Guardian some expert's predicted social distancing maybe needed for up to two years !!! That means basically the world economy or a large part off it falls apart,an airline that can't fly for 2 years- gone,a hotel that can't take guest for 2 years -gone. Also re Mattzon's post#20 yes i agree about the rice,volumes will be way down this year unless we have a very wet ,wet season,then that may lead to floods,also rice is a sensitive crop,to little water,you can't plant or it dies,too much so it is actually underwater for a few days it dies. Another article had a graph comparing this to other financial depressions,this was way worse than anything twice as bad as the gfc.

Now may be the time to sort out the Thai Tourism Industry.

 

Put someone with vision (not just pipe dreams) and who can lead in charge. CRONIES NEED NOT APPLY OR BE NOMINATED.

 

Start by eradicating the scams and offering tourists value for money and giving them a (pleasant)experience they’ll never forget.

 

No more ‘catch phrases’, give something of substance for a change.

 

Thinks can be made better and now is the time to implement those changes

16 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

And if they do open the boarders, who is willing to travel on holidays these days? And not only due to fear of infection, people has a lack of funding from jobb loss and there might not ever be any airline operating. Open the boarders but they certainly wont come in any TAT  dream numbers.

Everything you said is correct,  I was just reading about companies in the US and the virus's effect and there is a huge list of restaurant franchises closing down for good. There are millions upon millions out of work, thousands of companies won't re-open again.

What Asian airlines will be around in 6 months ?  Air asia ?  do they have the cash to hang on for 6 months ?

Even when or if things start to get better, how many tourists will be around ?  not too many I expect.

11 minutes ago, steven100 said:

Everything you said is correct,  I was just reading about companies in the US and the virus's effect and there is a huge list of restaurant franchises closing down for good. There are millions upon millions out of work, thousands of companies won't re-open again.

What Asian airlines will be around in 6 months ?  Air asia ?  do they have the cash to hang on for 6 months ?

Even when or if things start to get better, how many tourists will be around ?  not too many I expect.

Steven, do you think Prayut and co should still seek closer ties to the CCP? 

So that's $1 BILLION per death. Wow, must be the most expensive death in history.

11 minutes ago, rkidlad said:

Steven, do you think Prayut and co should still seek closer ties to the CCP? 

Khun Prayut will work with the CCP as much as needed to ensure regional cooperation through trade and investments continue. imo

Open slowly internally.... quaranteen foreign arrivals until valid testing and carry on..... good job so far Thailand.... I am very impressed with the Thai people and feel safe in Bangkok!

11 minutes ago, steven100 said:

Khun Prayut will work with the CCP as much as needed to ensure regional cooperation through trade and investments continue. imo

I didn't ask that. I said should Prayut be seeking closer ties to the CCP? 

I reckon they will start to ease up by the end of this month. Tourists will be subject to health checks, and visas on arrival will remain suspended. Overall, the reduction in tourist numbers is significant but not critical for the Thai economy.

16 hours ago, rasmus5150 said:

How many millions will they lose because of Anutins xenophobic remarks?

 

 

Not a lot.

Off topic posts about the UK have been removed, this topic is about:

 

Thai economy could lose over $40 billion if virus crisis goes beyond second quarter