German study shows COVID-19 might not be fatal as previously thought

[chessman]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I say apparently as I stopped watching/ listening to the MSM long ago given how useless it is.

Lead story in UK newspaper https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/advisers-warn-over-coronavirus-lockdown-relaxation-amid-cabinet-split

 

all about the balance between economy and public health of the lockdown. This is the issue that most media is covering now. You obviously have your opinions but it’s a complex issue.

[cornishcarlos]

32 minutes ago, chessman said:

An odd statement. Is any media saying it will be that bad? Mortality numbers are sadly underestimated (not inflated at all) but that seems well known. Most media is constantly talking about lock down policies and the best way to lift them. If the media you are consuming is not, why not change?

 

I was joking about the Bubonic plague bit... Is any media saying it will be that bad ?? Have you watched the news...

As someone else mentioned, lots of people are invested in the virus for different reasons.

If it turns out that it actually isn't that bad, then they will not make the money they were expecting to make.

As for lock down, I wasn't talking about media, I was talking about governments justifying their over reaction (especially in countries like Thailand with few deaths).

I know I know, "it's because of the lock downs that we've had so few deaths" sure it is....

[Sharp]

Every Government is sayin its an invisible war so whether or not its being hiped which I suspect it is in many ways mostly by MSM and those who financially have most to again. 

 

It's a war innocent people die in wars open the dam countries limited the exposure of the elderly and chronically I'll or the economy will be obliterated causing way more stress and deaths. 

 

 

[cornishcarlos]

7 minutes ago, chessman said:

You obviously have your opinions but it’s a complex issue.

 

Bit patronizing ????????????

[chessman]

3 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

Have you watched the news...

I tend to avoid the news programs in Thailand. can you trust news when it is sponsored by pot noodles? ????
 

 but I read a lot of newspaper articles and science articles. If you don’t like your news, why not change it?

[chessman]

3 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

Bit patronizing

Maybe, sorry if it is. I genuinely want people to think a bit more about these issues though. I know deep down I’m wasting my time.

[mauGR1]

47 minutes ago, chessman said:

An odd statement. Is any media saying it will be that bad? Mortality numbers are sadly underestimated (not inflated at all) but that seems well known. Most media is constantly talking about lock down policies and the best way to lift them. If the media you are consuming is not, why not change?

Are you kidding, right ?

Haven't you noticed that all the media in the world are singing the same tune ?

The scientists who try to explain that covid19 is not that bad, are conveniently ignored.

[Scott]

Post from an unapproved source, reported and removed.  

 

[cornishcarlos]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

Maybe, sorry if it is. I genuinely want people to think a bit more about these issues though. I know deep down I’m wasting my time.

 

Double patronizing... You gonna go for the hatrick ?? 

 

Do you really believe you are the only one thinking about this ?? Are people with different views just speaking without thinking and maybe will see the light eventually ?? 

[Pravda]

7 hours ago, CLS said:

I read this German report a week ago. The most important takeaway was that if you inhale only a low dose of the virus your symptoms will be less severe than with a high dose. 

 

I read that too. 

 

Now imagine those cretins in USA and Who who were saying masks don't help. 

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

‘Are you kidding, right ?

Haven't you noticed that all the media in the world are singing the same tune ?

The scientists who try to explain that covid19 is not that bad, are conveniently ignored.

You are saying this on a thread in which a scientist who has done research that contradicts some fundamental assumptions of this virus is interviewed on TV. I don’t watch much TV but I do read a lot and there are definitely a range of articles, quite a few recently with arguments suggesting the mortality rate is lower. Which scientists do you think deserve more exposure?

 

I think the media has become a convenient punch bag.

[sirineou]

1 hour ago, Monomial said:

Sure. However 60% is way too small a number. With so many asymptomatic carriers the number approaches 95%.

 

Show the math you are using.

 

I did not quote any percentages, if a 60% was quoted it was by someone else. I believe the most widely quoted percentage by the experts is 70% .

  I only provided the logic of why you can not reach 100% infection as i understand it.

 

[Moonlover]

3 hours ago, timendres said:

3 hours ago, rabang said:

As many people have suggested air pollution seems to be a contributing factor. Not a good sign for Thailand on the other hand. I had a constant mild dry cough and an itchy throat there. It's great to be able to breath pure air now.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/air-pollution-may-be-key-contributor-to-covid-19-deaths-study

 

3 hours ago, timendres said:

And if Thailand's mortality rate remains a record setting low?

And what if the majority of those deaths, low though they may be, occur in the regions where the air pollution is high?

[Monomial]

Just now, sirineou said:

I did not quote any percentages, if a 60% was quoted it was by someone else. I believe the most widely quoted percentage by the experts is 70% .

  I only provided the logic of why you can not reach 100% infection as i understand it.

 

Again, I can make a model approach 100% by using specific assumptions. The assumptions you make are absolutely critical to this. You stated the 60% or so number as a matter of fact without context. That is irresponsible and we all need to be careful. Experts are making assumptions when they say things like that. Don't just repeat an opinion or a model you heard from an expert as if it were fact.

 

We are in this mess today because too many people are listening to "experts" without understanding. Often times, these experts don't know any more than you or I, they just need to pretend like they do.

 

I will concede that given the right assumptions, a disease can be halted at 60% infection. What the assumptions are is the crucial information though, and I don't believe this virus is going to meet that figure. I suspect this is going to be something that infects 90+% of the population.  None of us will know until we see it in hindsight though. My assumptions are no more correct or incorrect than anyone's.

[mauGR1]

10 minutes ago, chessman said:

You are saying this on a thread in which a scientist who has done research that contradicts some fundamental assumptions of this virus is interviewed on TV. I don’t watch much TV but I do read a lot and there are definitely a range of articles, quite a few recently with arguments suggesting the mortality rate is lower. Which scientists do you think deserve more exposure?

 

I think the media has become a convenient punch bag.

I banned the tv more than 30 yrs ago.

Interesting that now somebody suggesting a lower mortality rate is given some space.

Perhaps common sense is not dead yet.

[chessman]

19 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

Do you really believe you are the only one thinking about this ?? Are people with different views just speaking without thinking and maybe will see the light eventually ?? 

Not at all, there are plenty of posters who I disagree with who are obviously thinking very seriously about this, many are obviously smarter than I am. I often like or thank these posts, even when I don’t agree. But when people post as if the whole situation is so simple then I do think that is wrong. This is a really complex and difficult situation and there are no easy answers or solutions.
 

 

[chessman]

17 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I banned the tv more than 30 yrs ago.

Fair enough, but how can you have such a bad opinion of it if you never watch it? The BBC has its faults but is more balanced than most news sources. In the UK the left and the right both tend to get angry with it which I guess is a sign that it is somewhere in the middle.

[mauGR1]

14 minutes ago, chessman said:

Fair enough, but how can you have such a bad opinion of it if you never watch it? The BBC has its faults but is more balanced than most news sources. In the UK the left and the right both tend to get angry with it which I guess is a sign that it is somewhere in the middle.

Well, the tv is a very powerful tool, it can influence your opinion without one being aware of it.

Actually, i used to enjoy football matches, i wonder what will it be without international football.

If i try to find positives in this crisis, besides the environment having a moment of respite from the constant aggression from the humans, another positive could be that many people have stopped running here and there, and they have more time to think .

[chessman]

8 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

If i try to find positives in this crisis, besides the environment having a moment of respite from the constant aggression from the humans,

Did you see the story yesterday from Thailand about sea turtles in Phuket laying eggs on beaches? Pretty amazing.

[metisdead]

A post using content from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed:

 

18) Social Media content is not to be used as  source material unless it is from a recognized or approved news media source,  the source of any such material (Twitter, Facebook  etc.) should always be shown.

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

Did you see the story yesterday from Thailand about sea turtles in Phuket laying eggs on beaches? Pretty amazing.

Nope, but there are dolphins in Venice piers, deers in the towns, cows on the beaches.

Even the birds in my neighbourhood seem to be happier without the constant flow of traffic nearby.

Sure it looks like a miracle how fast the nature can take hold in abandoned places.

[AussieBob18]

Excellent work by the Professor and his team. They have 'come out' going against the grain - but it was inevitable that once real research was done, the Covid virus would be seen for what it has turned out to really be - a bad new flu that most people have no immunity against.  

 

There was one point he made that was very telling to me (words like) "The virus, like all virus, slowly 'mutates' as it is passed from person to person, and it becomes less lethal and less infectious."

 

He agreed that the initial social containment was needed to stop the flu when it first broke out, but when asked if and when the lockdowns should be eased, he correctly responded (words like) "I am a viroligist and issues like that (when to ease lockdowns) is not something that I can comment on".  If only more health 'authorities and experts' would also speak the same truth.

 

Bill Gates? Who is spokeperson for a consortium of companies looking to make a 'universal vaccine' for profit?  Why is he there??  As the Professor said : I respect Bill Gates ........ but ...... 

[Logosone]

A few weeks into the events in Wuhan a UK academic from the University of Anglia posted a basic model, using previous flu pandemic figures which rather than accepting official Chinese figures said that the mortality rate was more likely around 0.3%. 

 

When Sir Patrick Vallance admitted that the true number of cases was most likely ten or twenty times the identified case number it again was clear that real mortality was in the 0.3-0.5% mortality range.

 

The work of Hendrik Streeck, is very interesting and again confirms the mortality of SARS Cov2 is not as great as many alarmists have in paroxysms of alarmist fervour claimed it to be (looking, foolishly, only at official identified cases).

 

Another very interesting study comes from Iceland, where, scientists have done both "targeted" testing, ie testing those who already had symptoms and those who had recently travelled to high risk areas, and general population testing that was not targeted.

 

The Iceland study found that 0.8% of the general population tested positive for the virus. 

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100

 

If one extrapolates this number to Germany, if 0.8% of the population in Germany were infected, that would be a figure in the vicinity of 1 million infected people. Coincidentally that number would also be in the ten times multiple Vallance has suggested, roughly.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logosone

[AussieBob18]

17 minutes ago, chessman said:

Did you see the story yesterday from Thailand about sea turtles in Phuket laying eggs on beaches? Pretty amazing.

Actually not good. The locals will go and dig up the eggs for food, reducing the chances of the eggs laid hatching and surviving.  Better they stay away from Pattaya and use other places. 

[moe666]

Even with the Spanish Flu in 1918 the virus does not kill you it is all the other things that develope from it. Run away immune system, respitory problems, and other organ failure problems

[AussieBob18]

55 minutes ago, chessman said:

Fair enough, but how can you have such a bad opinion of it if you never watch it? The BBC has its faults but is more balanced than most news sources. In the UK the left and the right both tend to get angry with it which I guess is a sign that it is somewhere in the middle.

I did the same 20 years ago. But every now and then I take a look, and it confirms yet again that it is all (mainly) inane rubbish.  I will watch a specific event on TV that is not being shown via other nethods, but I record and wait so I can skip the (mostly) stupid annoying ads. 

[pookondee]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

LOL. Our <deleted> media apparently repeat vebatim the government line that it is the worst thing that has ever happened in our lifetime. I say apparently as I stopped watching/ listening to the MSM long ago given how useless it is.

However, the facts that are available to me do not support the draconian actions that have been taken. Far as I can see the only country doing it ( IMO ) right is Sweden.

The aftermath is going to be very interesting when government actions are examined by independent bodies and truth comes out.

Well said.

I also think heads will roll (or they should) when the dust settles. 

The politicians will be scrambling to find someone to blame over shutting down the whole world and destroying everyones economy for the sake of a bad case of the flu.

 

In part, i think the media has a lot to answer for. 

Ive even heard, some people (husband and wife) even social distancing in their own homes, when they both had no risk or exposure to the virus at all. This is how ridiculous this thing is getting.

 

Its a bit of an irony really.

 

We demonize states that withhold information, giving them various negative labels.

Yet by giving our own media free reign, we have caused the larger percent of society to go absolutely hysterical with fear.

 

When that happens, of course the politicians will be forced to take on idiotic measures to stem the hysteria.

 

At the end of the day, the worlds media have been complicit in spreading a virus of unnecessary idiotic, hysterical fear which is far worse than the actual covid.

 

And that has made life hell for the 90%+ of the population who never were going to have any exposure or risk from this virus at all.

 

[Logosone]

12 minutes ago, pookondee said:

Well said.

I also think heads will roll (or they should) when the dust settles. 

The politicians will be scrambling to find someone to blame over shutting down the whole world and destroying everyones economy for the sake of a bad case of the flu.

 

In part, i think the media has a lot to answer for. 

Ive even heard, some people (husband and wife) even social distancing in their own homes, when they both had no risk or exposure to the virus at all. This is how ridiculous this thing is getting.

 

Let's look at who was really in charge, and who actually put in place these economic ruination policies of lockdown and for what reason.

 

Boris Johnson abdicated responsibility early on and said he was "guided" by the scientists.

 

Who was the most alarmist?

 

It was Neil Ferguson. He was the one who posted a paper saying that 2 million people in the US would die, 500,000 in the UK would die. It was based on this hyper-alarmist modelling, of which Ferguson later tried to weasel out of, that Boris Johnson then put in the place the policies that he did.

 

The media was not actually the most alarmist. It was the Imperial College experts led by Neil Ferguson that raised the Hollywood scenarios. When they would have known full well that taking no action at all was never a possibility.

 

 

[AussieBob18]

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Let's look at who was really in charge, and who actually put in place these economic ruination policies of lockdown and for what reason.

Boris Johnson abdicated responsibility early on and said he was "guided" by the scientists.

Who was the most alarmist?

It was Neil Ferguson. He was the one who posted a paper saying that 2 million people in the US would die, 500,000 in the UK would die. It was based on this hyper-alarmist modelling, of which Ferguson later tried to weasel out of, that Boris Johnson then put in the place the policies that he did.

The media was not actually the most alarmist. It was the Imperial College experts led by Neil Ferguson that raised the Hollywood scenarios. When they would have known full well that taking no action at all was never a possibility.

Hard to say exactly who was the most alarmist - but it is fair to call out the experts who predicted huge numbers dying worldwide - 50 mill to 200 mill - and in each country.

But the most culpable is and always must be China.  They either ignorantly or deliberately withheld information from the world - for whatever reason it doesn't matter - they caused all this panic - period.

WHO are complicit because they believed them, and they believed because like in so many other organisations and institutions around the world, the CCP has spent decades gaining 'influence'.  The warnings that Taiwan gave them were ignored because the CCP demands that WHO ignore anything from Taiwan.

Then when the WHO finalised realised the pandemic that was coming, the senior 'experts' in each country took the WHO advice and information, and jumped on board with their own dire predictions and recommendations.

The media reacted as they always do - they sensationalised and over-stated the problems and deaths.

Then the politicians took drastic actions as they realised they were a long way behind and had to 'catch up' and get ready for the inevitable cases and deaths that were coming.

And then the politicians started using selected stats and information and half-truths against their opponents in power.

Then the media fanned the flames and kept pushing whatever sensational narrative that they wanted - both sides.

 

Meanwhile Taiwan had already shut down all travel to and from Wuhan and then to and from China many months ago - and they are now OK.

 

[Logosone]

"Death rates are almost always overestimates as they miss tons of people who don’t have [symptoms],” said a US-based statistical geneticist who requested anonymity. “False positive are less of an issue than untested masses.”

He added: “It is consistently in the interest of medical pros to overstate risks in order to win more funding from governments: ‘Fund me and you might not die,’ is a compelling argument!”"

 

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/