Pattaya Property

[NCC1701A]

1 hour ago, cranki said:

Chinese troops....

radio active Chinese troops. 

[newnative]

2 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

That depends on the yield doesn't it. Still doesn't make it a sensible investment as it will be a monumental hurdle to sell it nowadays. I bought 3 condos in Pattaya, very stupid thing to do. I rented them all out for a while but all I could see was bad news on and a constant decline in "real" tourists not the tourist numbers. So I thankfully sold them all but I had to sell them at the same price I bought them years before. In the UK in Hertfordshire my father bought a flat in 2010 for 150,000 pounds, it is now valued at 295,000. So doubled his money in 10 years. Pattaya,,,, no chance. There are better places to invest your money.

     Yes, there is always the argument that the money could have been spent on something else.  I could have done this, I could have done that and made more.   But, one does need a roof over one's head so one normally needs to either rent or buy something unless one plans to live in Mom and Pop's basement.  

    In your case, the 3 condos you bought were for investment, not to live in.  That's a bit different than buying a condo to live in for 14 years rather than paying rent to someone else for those 14 years.  I never had any problem selling my Pattaya condos at a profit and this poster, if he wanted to sell, likely could have found a buyer in the past few years when the Chinese were buying everything decent in sight.   Yes, likely more difficult now, like lots of places, but, again on the bright side, he does still have that roof over his head, rent-free, with just utilities and a condo fee much cheaper than any in the west.   

[newnative]

53 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Your comments are flawed.

Supply and demand?

The compelling reason is: Are you aware there are over 20,000 properties for sale in the Pattaya area alone?

If this was any other place with a transparent market, prices would be half of what the are now and places would still be sitting.

    And, I will once again give my argument that when you are looking to buy, once you plug in all your wants, needs, and must haves, including things like location, price, number of bedrooms and baths, amenities and view preferences, etc., those 20,000 properties rapidly whittle down to maybe a dozen or so.  At least that has been my experience.  

[Bigz]

'well over inflated property prices'? I don't think so. Condo prices in Pattaya are comparable to the poorest dumps in Eastern Europe. I think the prices are fair. There will be some reductions given the situation but I can't see a big crash coming although I am not an expert.

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, newnative said:

    And, I will once again give my argument that when you are looking to buy, once you plug in all your wants, needs, and must haves, including things like location, price, number of bedrooms and baths, amenities and view preferences, etc., those 20,000 properties rapidly whittle down to maybe a dozen or so.  At least that has been my experience.  

That doesn't change the fact there are 20,000 properties on the market, that's just your preferences. At the moment, and I think for the foreseeable future supply way outnumbers demand. When this happens it will mean property prices will fall, no matter if it takes a bit longer in Thailand for this to happen, it will happen. 

[1FinickyOne]

my experience with these types of over built environments is that time bails them out... if you want to buy in, you have to look for and search out the holes in the market, that one person who has to sell... it's out there but often gone quickly. 

[SiSePuede419]

No, it won't crash.

 

There will always be a "greater fool" come along and buy it from you. ????

[wolf81]

In the past I believed property prices in Pattaya and Bangkok would drop big time, but now I'm not sure anymore to be honest. Last weekend I saw a video that brought some good points into the discussion:

- Most foreigners buy with cash, as they cannot get a mortgage for the property in Thailand. This means there's less pressure to sell in an emergency, since there's no monthly payments for the property anymore. Of course there will always be some people that are forced to sell, but certainly not as much as there would be if every foreigner could get a mortgage easy here.

- Foreigners can only sell to other foreigners I believe and Thai only to other Thai because of the 49/51 quotas, so even if many Thai people would be forced to sell (since they do often have mortgages for these condos), they would have to sell to other Thai people. Not much benefit for foreigners in that regard.

- According to the video, the Thai population pyramid is still healthy (though I've heard conflicting opinions on this matter, so not 100% sure if this is true). A healthy population pyramid means that population should be increasing in the foreseeable future, so more demand.

- Since there's no property tax to pay every year, there's less pressure to sell as well. This might also be the reason why Thai people don't mind holding their unsellable properties for many years, as there is little cost involved.

 

I guess the Thai market is very different compared to the Western markets and there's a decent chance our Western assumptions might not be valid here.

Edited April 27, 2020 by wolf81

[Max69xl]

19 hours ago, Oldie said:

Why should the property prices crash in the long run? More and more people will have enough money to travel and they will do it. And they need rooms. Or why should they stop traveling? 

They won't have any money in the near future, that's for sure. On top of that, airlines are talking about increasing prices for a ticket at least 50%. That will scare away a lot of people. But Pattaya will survive in the long run. 

[newnative]

40 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

That doesn't change the fact there are 20,000 properties on the market, that's just your preferences. At the moment, and I think for the foreseeable future supply way outnumbers demand. When this happens it will mean property prices will fall, no matter if it takes a bit longer in Thailand for this to happen, it will happen. 

      Anybody buying property should have 'preferences'.   You get into trouble when you make a spur-of-the-moment condo purchase without much thought from some young cutie manning a booth at Central Festival.  The more preferences you have--and a careful buyer will have quite a few--the more your choices narrow, which was the point I was making.  Supply tightens.

     In normal times I have been able to sell all my Pattaya condos at a profit--even with that daunting 20,000 condos on the market.  How was I able to do that?  Because all my buyers had preferences that narrowed their choices down to not very many--just as my choices narrowed down, as well, the last time I was a buyer.   My competition, or my choice as a buyer, is never 20,000 condos on the market.   

     You, and others, see the figure of 20,000 condos for sale and immediately say that supply far outweighs demand.  But, again, remember that supply is never 20,000 condos.  Supply is the number of condos available that will fit certain criteria of a buyer.  It's always fluid.

    Even punching in a few minimum requirements, for example a 1 bedroom seaview condo in Jomtien with at least 50 sqm with a project that has at least a pool and air-conditioned gym, for 5MB or less, will narrow your supply down quite a bit.  Likely a buyer will have more preferences---newer project, garage parking, close to public transportation, foreign quota, etc., that further limits supply.  

     In normal times, there has always been enough demand for me to find a buyer for each of my condos.  One of the last condos I sold was a 2 bedroom 2 bath high-floor seaview in a newer project with garage parking, 2 pools, and air-conditioned gym.  Had there been 20,000 of them on the market that would have been a tough sale.  There weren't.  And, aren't.

    These, of course, are not normal times and there will certainly be bargains to be had.  But, if someone chooses to buy, make sure that bargain comes close to meeting most of your important preferences.  A bargain isn't a bargain if it's not something you really want and like. 

[Kenchamp]

4 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Your comments are flawed.

Supply and demand?

The compelling reason is: Are you aware there are over 20,000 properties for sale in the Pattaya area alone?

If this was any other place with a transparent market, prices would be half of what the are now and places would still be sitting.

Horses for courses mate. There are thousands of properties in the UK that struggle to sell for much more than loose change but there are others that are highly desirable and will sell in any market. My point being, if you buy right, say ocean front with great views etc then you have a much better chance than say if you buy a condo overlooking another condo block and 3 km from the seafront. 

[Caine]

17 hours ago, Henryford said:

Are they inflated. I bought my condo in 2006 and i suspect that if i sold it now i would be lucky to get the same amount back. Any other property in the world not gone up in value in 14 years?

That's because they are cheaply built falling to bits after 10 yrs. 

[Iron Tongue]

We'll know in 2021.

As a real estate investor, I know that it takes at least a year before homeowners and investors finally realize the position they're in and accept market current conditions.  They'll hold on to hope that their homes will be worth more than the last sales comparable and refuse to accept a down market price.  It takes a year, or more for reality to set in.

[RoadWarrior371]

21 hours ago, Henryford said:

Are they inflated. I bought my condo in 2006 and i suspect that if i sold it now i would be lucky to get the same amount back. Any other property in the world not gone up in value in 14 years?

Hmmm,  My raw land in Ban Amphur increased by 1000% over 15 years before I sold.  What do the Boomers always say?  Location, Location, Location.   

 

* this is hypothetical since there is no way to own land in Eden.

 

[mrfaroukh]

On 4/26/2020 at 11:36 PM, Oldie said:

Why should the property prices crash in the long run? More and more people will have enough money to travel and they will do it. And they need rooms. Or why should they stop traveling? 

If someone travel as tourist they need not buy property.

[mrfaroukh]

The property price had already dropped earlier but it didn't make different to foreigners who wanted to buy as their currency value against Baht has also dropped. Now it is a good time for them to sell if they want to go back to their country or another country as they will get more value for the other currency against Baht. Now with Covid 19 many millions of people worldwide has lost their jobs. They have shortage of money and also scare to travel at least til there is a vaccine. Look at Pattaya it is empty. Everyone go back to their village. Who will rent flat etc. I feel only those will buy a flat who really want to live in Thailand for at least next 10 years. I live in a Hotel Condominium. I used to pay 24000 Baht rent for a flat and guess what I am paying now 9000 Baht only for the same room. The selling prince of same condo was around 2.8 million and now he is ready to sell for 1.8 and there is no buyer.

[Onrai]

On 4/26/2020 at 11:36 PM, Oldie said:

Why should the property prices crash in the long run? More and more people will have enough money to travel and they will do it. And they need rooms. Or why should they stop traveling? 

If you borrow you have debt to service. If you don’t have customers you don’t have income, you can’t service your debt. Your choices are to sell at whatever price you can get or keep paying on your loan without any income. 

Maybe you can explain why you think more and more people will have enough money? China’s economy is contracting for the first time since 1976 and 20+ million people are filing for unemployment in the USA. Those are the world’s 2 biggest economies. 

[izod10]

18 hours ago, Guderian said:

The Thais tend to take a very long-term view wrt residential property. They're happy to wait eons until they get the price they want.

Sadly, once this is over, the western world is going to be poorer than it once was, as governments try to manage and pay down the immense amounts of money they've borrowed and printed and thrown at their citizens and corporations. I doubt if there will be as much money shloshing around in the system to buy holiday homes as there once was, especially once inflation takes off. It's bound to be their most important medium- and long-term tool for handling the debts, just look at the last century if you need proof of that.

Too true.  There will be no bounce back to previous,none,...No spare money,increased taxes,no jobs,millions unemployed,and yet still the same punters putting out messages of good futures for property etc..  Just junk,the place will go to rapid stagnation without a doubt,not just Pattaya,but Thailand in general

  The place is awash with unsold property,and the recent builds are just awaiting the bulldozers in a few years to come

[izod10]

13 hours ago, newnative said:

     Yes, there is always the argument that the money could have been spent on something else.  I could have done this, I could have done that and made more.   But, one does need a roof over one's head so one normally needs to either rent or buy something unless one plans to live in Mom and Pop's basement.  

    In your case, the 3 condos you bought were for investment, not to live in.  That's a bit different than buying a condo to live in for 14 years rather than paying rent to someone else for those 14 years.  I never had any problem selling my Pattaya condos at a profit and this poster, if he wanted to sell, likely could have found a buyer in the past few years when the Chinese were buying everything decent in sight.   Yes, likely more difficult now, like lots of places, but, again on the bright side, he does still have that roof over his head, rent-free, with just utilities and a condo fee much cheaper than any in the west.   

But unfortunately the owner will die of whatever eventually   ,the the condo(s) will still be unsold

[Darkside Gray]

Prices are already down in and around Pattaya, glut of new builds unsold, market for older houses non existent nothing is moving.

[Piccadilly Circus]

47 minutes ago, Darkside Gray said:

Prices are already down in and around Pattaya, glut of new builds unsold, market for older houses non existent nothing is moving.

Looking to buy central pattaya not a condo a house or land can you give me 1 example where a older house can't sell at lower prices or some land that's down from prev covid as can't find any, thanks.

[newnative]

7 hours ago, Caine said:

That's because they are cheaply built falling to bits after 10 yrs. 

    No, they aren't.  At least not what I buy.  My current condo is 14 years old and in good shape.  My previous condo was built around 1990 and is solid as a rock and also being maintained well.  

[newnative]

13 hours ago, wolf81 said:

In the past I believed property prices in Pattaya and Bangkok would drop big time, but now I'm not sure anymore to be honest. Last weekend I saw a video that brought some good points into the discussion:

- Most foreigners buy with cash, as they cannot get a mortgage for the property in Thailand. This means there's less pressure to sell in an emergency, since there's no monthly payments for the property anymore. Of course there will always be some people that are forced to sell, but certainly not as much as there would be if every foreigner could get a mortgage easy here.

- Foreigners can only sell to other foreigners I believe and Thai only to other Thai because of the 49/51 quotas, so even if many Thai people would be forced to sell (since they do often have mortgages for these condos), they would have to sell to other Thai people. Not much benefit for foreigners in that regard.

- According to the video, the Thai population pyramid is still healthy (though I've heard conflicting opinions on this matter, so not 100% sure if this is true). A healthy population pyramid means that population should be increasing in the foreseeable future, so more demand.

- Since there's no property tax to pay every year, there's less pressure to sell as well. This might also be the reason why Thai people don't mind holding their unsellable properties for many years, as there is little cost involved.

 

I guess the Thai market is very different compared to the Western markets and there's a decent chance our Western assumptions might not be valid here.

     Good post with some good points.  Just one correction.  Foreigners can sell to Thais, and vice versa.  I have sold to both foreigners and Thais.  If a foreigner buys a condo from a Thai and the foreign quota in the complex is filled, he would need to buy it in either company name, or Thai name with a spouse or partner.  If there is still foreign quota available, he can put the condo in foreign quota and have the chanote (title deed) in his name.  A Thai buying from a foreigner would in most cases put the condo in Thai name.  You may have noticed I said 'foreign quota' but not 'Thai quota' and used 'Thai name' instead.  That is because there is no quota for Thais--a condo can be 100% Thai owned.  In that case, the full 49% foreign quota is still available.  

[newnative]

2 hours ago, izod10 said:

But unfortunately the owner will die of whatever eventually   ,the the condo(s) will still be unsold

     You're assuming:  (1.)  A buyer for the condo can't be found.  Not my experience.  Depending on how fast an heir wants to sell, the condo might be sold for less than it's worth.  But, after closing costs, it's still all gravy for the heir.  (2.)  The heir will not want the condo.  Impossible to make that assumption.  The heir might want to keep the condo and use it for himself, or a member of his family.  One of the nice things about Thailand condos is the very low monthly maintenance costs--it's very cheap to keep a condo here and just use it occasionally, or perhaps rent it out.  In any case, sold or unsold it is still an asset. 

[Oldie]

4 hours ago, mrfaroukh said:

If someone travel as tourist they need not buy property.

They don't need to buy property. But they need to stay somewhere and so investors will provide rooms for them and they will buy property. 

[Oldie]

3 hours ago, Onrai said:

 

Maybe you can explain why you think more and more people will have enough money? China’s economy is contracting for the first time since 1976 and 20+ million people are filing for unemployment in the USA. Those are the world’s 2 biggest economies. 

Just look at Thailand but also at other tourist destinations. After the western tourist came the Russians, then the Chinese and then the Indians. Countries with a huge population and increasing wealth. And there are still many countries left that might have a similar development in the future.

 

At the moment we have the Corona crises. But it will not last forever. Sure some investors might have a bad experience. But you can't do business and hope for sunshine every day. This is naive and they will understand this hopefully now. But many will survive and new investors will replace the not so lucky ones. Nothing special in the end. This is how the economy works. 

[donnacha]

11 minutes ago, Oldie said:

At the moment we have the Corona crises. But it will not last forever.

We don't know that.

Even if this particular virus is somehow eradicated, there will still be longterm economic and cultural impacts. Perhaps that won't hurt prices but it would be foolish not to factor it in as a very real possibility.

I note that many posting in this thread appear to have some vested interest in believing that everything will soon be back to normal. I would simply note that the public has been repeatedly lied to about the timescales, and drip-fed the bad news through extension after extension.

If and when mass air travel resumes, it will be far more expensive. People will have far less money. Entry to most countries will be require more paperwork (certificates, insurance etc). Exotic vacations are going to be out of fashion for quite a while.

 

 

[Guderian]

Hard to believe that they're still working on the new Copacabana building in Jomtien. Someone obviously believes Pattaya property has a bright future.

[n210mp]

2 hours ago, Darkside Gray said:

Prices are already down in and around Pattaya, glut of new builds unsold, market for older houses non existent nothing is moving.

Simply just not true!

 

Apart from the occasional "fire sale" there is nothing either on offer that fits your description that I am aware of and I peruse the property Pattaya   market in all its forms daily!

 

Looking for something to buy or rent are you? 

 

[izod10]

2 hours ago, Piccadilly Circus said:

Looking to buy central pattaya not a condo a house or land can you give me 1 example where a older house can't sell at lower prices or some land that's down from prev covid as can't find any, thanks.

Central pattaya?  Im just off it and there are houses previously up for sale,now rented at peppercorn rent  Loads of the stuff,rented one,moved next door  half the rent,nice modern one story  big house,all over the bloody place,looking at another,a third of the price Im paying now