coronavirus: Stuck at home/ Try FOREX instead

[stephenterry]

I'm fed up with the goodie-goodie 'stay at home' day in and day out, with the once a week Rimping highlight shopping trip. Twiddling thumbs, watching B rated movies, and cooking the same daily meals - albeit, tasty and healthy.

 

So I decided to trade FOREX to while away the boredom...

 

Now here's the disclaimer. This post is NOT recommending LIVE trading because it's a foregone conclusion that 90+% of new traders WILL lose money.

 

So, how am I doing after two weeks of hacking around. First the basics - find a broker. Here's a link: 

https://comparebrokers.co/compare/thailand-brokers/#broker-section

 

i've signed up to both IC markets and FP markets - and opened a  demo account with both using MT5 trading platform (MT4 is also fine). The 'chat' helpdesk with FPM is excellent and quick to respond - recommended. Both ICM and FPm require identification and residential proof  - at least, passport and Thai driving licence picture download will be accepted.  it's a bit of a hassle to get up and running, but I had all day every day to enable it. My FPM chat line was kept busy.

 

I started my Internet (not mobile App) demo accounts with US$ 1000 to ensure my money management was kept tight. So far so good. But if you're a dinosaur like me, finding your way around the trading platform would test even a Trump supporter - it's not as simple as swigging bleach. Advice - just press 'mouse buttons' and write down the process for creating and saving charts - because, you WILL get lost at some point. 

 

And then there's the matter of actually trading with a whole new language to learn - lots, pips, points, time periods, trends, stop losses, candlesticks etc. and that's just for starters. My learning hacking cost me $200, but as I'm writing this today my new  - and very simple trend strategy  - is producing better results.

 

Now, I've set my stop loss 'risk' of $10 per trade - either buy or sell - and I'll close a trade and take a profit (if only) at $15-$20. So simple arithmetic shows I can still lose more trades than winning trades, but still make a profit.

 

How?  

 

Toss a coin 100 times. Every HEAD is a winner, e.g. $15, and every TAIL is a loser, i.e. $10.  40 wins nets me $600 and 60 losses costs me $400. Overall profit on a 50-50 'gamble' earns me $200. Sounds easy, doesn't it? Not so - here's the downside. Firstly you'll need a strategy in place that works better than a 50 -50 guess, and you WILL have losing days that can cause you to reconsider your strategy. My very simple strategy is to use currency strength coupled with the SAME movement trends at both the daily and 15 minute time frames. The Aus dollar is the strongest - way ahead of the pack - others less so.   

 

However, everyone is different, and you'll have to find what works for you - it could take months, even years, to know what the hell you're doing and WHY.

 

Today's trades across several pairs are netting me $25 in total as I write this, so I do expect (hope) to at least end the day with a 'profit'.

 

We'll see...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[UbonThani]

try crypto

[bkk6060]

If you are doing it for fun, ok.  But, you will not make much money day/short term trading with $1000.

 

Also, not sure about Australia but in many countries every sale of stock needs to be recorded on your tax returns.  Day traders will have 1000's of trades in a month that need to be filed with a tax return as short term trades are often taxed at a different rate.

Anyway, good luck.  I did some day trading but started with $100,000.  I made some money but the hassle of the tax situation and all the pre/after market trades were just too time consuming for me.

[Sheryl]

Moved to banking & investment forum

[stephenterry]

2 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

If you are doing it for fun, ok.  But, you will not make much money day/short term trading with $1000.

 

Also, not sure about Australia but in many countries every sale of stock needs to be recorded on your tax returns.  Day traders will have 1000's of trades in a month that need to be filed with a tax return as short term trades are often taxed at a different rate.

Anyway, good luck.  I did some day trading but started with $100,000.  I made some money but the hassle of the tax situation and all the pre/after market trades were just too time consuming for me.

I'm trading Forex not stocks. It's a different ballgame.  

[stephenterry]

2 hours ago, UbonThani said:

try crypto

I have an aversion to these artificial currencies - don't ask me why, but I can see Bitcoin hitting the dust. Not that Forex is an open market in that the big banks determine the market conditions for retail traders.

 

But for a bit of a 'game' challenge it's better than pacman.  

[Chivas]

I can tell you that even if you've been in finance and stock buying, spreads accounts etc for 35 years as I have forex is the hardest of the lot

The OP correctly says that 90% will be wiped out very quickly but I'd put it higher

 

It WILL fry your brain because you really do need to watch those trades every waking hour. Its not a 8am till 4.30pm window because Forex depending on what provider you use will be open from 11pm Sunday till the following Friday at 9pm (varies with provider)

 

Forget about doing anything else as a day job because you'll be wiped out very quickly

 

If you do decide to give it a go NEVER move stops.

[stephenterry]

On 4/29/2020 at 3:20 PM, Chivas said:

I can tell you that even if you've been in finance and stock buying, spreads accounts etc for 35 years as I have forex is the hardest of the lot

The OP correctly says that 90% will be wiped out very quickly but I'd put it higher

 

It WILL fry your brain because you really do need to watch those trades every waking hour. Its not a 8am till 4.30pm window because Forex depending on what provider you use will be open from 11pm Sunday till the following Friday at 9pm (varies with provider)

 

Forget about doing anything else as a day job because you'll be wiped out very quickly

 

If you do decide to give it a go NEVER move stops.

Progress Report from fifth para below:

 

Thank you Chivas for your input and advice. I have had similar extensive financial experience as yourself - remember IMRO Compliance - and my trading personality focuses on two main drivers - low risk and money management, which, IMO, unsuccessful traders lack, as well as poor judgement and no trading rules.  

 

I'm deliberately testing out my strategy on a demo platform, using the above risk/reward and money management of a minimal stake by trading in mini-lots. By my calculation, I would need to lose 100 trades at $10 a punt, over and above wins in order to be wiped out. 

 

That's a comfortable blanket. And as I'm mainly a half-day, morning, trader of the Sydney and Tokyo exchanges - which avoid the highly traded UK and USA exchanges, I don't have to be over-concerned about the institutional bank traders manipulating the markets.

 

As for never moving stops, I'll trail a $15+ 'profit' price to lesson the risk of loss. In reality, no Black Swan move would see me losing more than $10 (providing  the broker guarantees the S/L), and to be spiked out by the banks can be annoying, but remedied by reopening another trade providing the strategy still holds water. It's a truism that this is successful over 80+% of the time.    

So now on to my progress to date:

 

29/4. Most markets were trending, which suits my strategy. I identified 7 trades, ($70 staked) which met my stringent rules with a focus point on the relative currency strength of the AUD (OZ dollar). I'm a great believer in 'following the money' (FTM) strategy - and I matched the AUD against the weakest currencies. This, although strategically compliant, was, in hindsight, a leap of faith in my system.

 

Result (at my selected afternoon closure time): Four wins ($67) and Three losses ($18). Net profit, $48.92.     

 

30/4. Same market trend movement as yesterday. Both AUD and NZD currencies were strong, However my four LAGGING indicators all indicated that a trend reversal could be imminent, when sellers take their profits from a rising currency.  As I traded on the 15 minute chart (M15) which trended the same as the daily chart, I reckoned my strategy would hold steady for at least another half-day. I identified 5 trades, ($50 staked), 4 of which included the above currencies. Another FTM test. 

 

Result (at my selected afternoon closure time): Four wins ($52)and One loss ($8). Net profit, $44.49.   

 

1/5. I learnt a lot yesterday. Currency strength of AUD and NZD had considerably weakened, as had CAD (Canadian $). CHF (Swiss franc) is like having a safe pair of hands until trends are underway, and it was the strongest currency, as was the JPN (Yen). My M15 chart highlighted this trend, and was replicated by the 1h chart. I ignored the daily chart because it was lagging behind  yesterday's trends. All my indicators still pointed to a downtrend (selling opportunity) and, still following the rules, I identified 5 trades, ($50 staked).

 

Another FTM test. Which started out badly. All of the trades were in losing positions for over two hours, albeit it became clear to me - when reflected on later when I closed the positions - that AUD/NZD/CAD buyers were initially at war with sellers, as the price movement (still bullish) was slow. At lunch time, still in the red, I anticipated a losing day.

 

One positive kept up my spirits. My charts were still upholding my strategy - and I decided to ride with it. Lunch took up another two hours - I needed to go shopping - and by the time I returned I expected to see all my trades hitting the S/L limit - with a losing outcome.  Hell, NO. 3 trades showed material profits and the other two were in the black.  And continued to be so. 

 

Result (at my selected afternoon closure time): Five wins. Net profit, $92.70. 

 

Three consecutive profit days amounting to $186. A 18.6% return on my '$1000 investment'. A good start. Only another 97 days of my strategy testing, and as sure as night follows day, I WILL have losing days - that's assured.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stephenterry]

Keep safe, peeps. 

[gargamon]

Trying to drum up a bunch of new suckers participants to suck money out of...

 

[mr mr]

On 4/29/2020 at 3:03 PM, stephenterry said:

I have an aversion to these artificial currencies - don't ask me why, but I can see Bitcoin hitting the dust. Not that Forex is an open market in that the big banks determine the market conditions for retail traders.

 

But for a bit of a 'game' challenge it's better than pacman.  

crypto is far more than artificial currencies. the great thing about crypto is you can trade it 24 hours a day. or i mean lose all my money trading thinking i am gordon gecko. 

[stephenterry]

48 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Trying to drum up a bunch of new suckers participants to suck money out of...

 

That's a cynical comment, Gargoyle. It's my life journey. I hope some people stuck at home, and who are bored, are interested in my progress towards being a successful Forex trader, would welcome my 'blogs' along the way. That's it, nothing else. Not even an insinuation of drumming up anything other than support when I have a bad day.  

 

I trust that is crystal.