WHO does a 180, now lauds Swedish model

[geriatrickid]

14 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

That's a nice story for the media, but it's completely false. I've been in Japan since late March, back then Tokyo was just as packed as ever and most people were not wearing masks or social distancing at all. They only seriously started after April 8. I know many people in Japan who have been sick in the past few months but were refused testing and sent back home. The criteria for testing was so strict that even people who had fever and pneumonia were turned away. The official numbers are a joke.

 

As for antibodies - it's certain that they provide some immunity for some period of time - the only question is how immune and for how long. Pretending that they do not provide immunity is just ridiculous and those "experts" who doubt it are driven by political or other agenda, not science.

You have taken  my comment out of context. I do not deny that there is a Covid19 epidemic in Japan. Considering the past experience with high seasonal respiratory infections it is to be expected. I even pointed out that the Covid 19 spread is why the Olympics were postponed. However, my point was that Japanese cultural practices most certainly have had an impact on the transmission of the  disease.  

 

You say my position is  "false". well, my  statements are based on established  conclusions derived from peer reviewed data and studies and public health fundamentals.  According to you the following  established facts are "false";

 

1. Personal hygiene and public sanitation are one of the critical factors in the transmission of  infectious respiratory diseases.  If you  were in Japan, as was I, you will agree that Japan has one of the highest  levels of public sanitation and hygiene. Public  washrooms are spotless, and people are more likely to wash their  hands. People do not throw their used tissue on the ground, nor do they cough/spit/pick their nose/teeth in public.

 

2. Yes, personal space  is at a premium in Japan, but surely you have noticed that people have been wearing face masks. Failure to wear the mask on the train is a social wrong.

 

3. For someone who has such a deep insight of Japanese culture, I will direct you to  Prof.  Kazuto Suzuki of Hokkaido University who summed up the accepted characteristic of Japan that its social and cultural norms  impose self-discipline and obedience to official guidance as a key factor in the reduction of the spread of communicable diseases;  “If you don’t take care of yourself and become ill, that is taken as causing problems for other people.” . 

 

Yes, there is a Covid19 epidemic in Japan. It would be much worse if the Japanese were not as clean, respectful of others as they are and if they were in the habit of slobbering over others or being close talkers as some westerners are.  Japanese people are more likely to consider their actions in respect to the impact upon others than  many other cultures.

 

In respect to antibodies,  maybe there are antibodies, but are you able to  provide one study one credible study that says there are long term antibodies? Until  that happens it is irresponsible to make the claim that there is long term  immunity.  If there was a certainty, we would not  be subject to  reinfection from common colds caused by corona viruses would we? Immunity is  virus dependent and the evidence is not there yet. The people pointing this out have no vested interest. However, the vendors  of many of the antibody tests do. There isn't even a consistency or reliability established for many of the antibody tests on the market. This is why several countries have refused many of the tests entry. (Examples are Australia and Canada which have insisted upon proven accuracy.)

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by geriatrickid

[Logosone]

20 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

 

You say my position is  "false". well, my  statements are based on established  conclusions derived from peer reviewed data and studies and public health fundamentals. 

 

No, your statements were false, like pretty much all your statements on here.

 

The other poster actually lived in Japan at that time. What he is saying is that the Japanese did not practice demure cultural social distancing, but instead gathered in crowds in bars long after the West was in lockdown.

 

He should know, he actually lived there.

 

Moreover, Japan's figures have been attacked by experts as being most likely false anyway.

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Anyone who has followed what Mike Ryan has been saying throughout this pandemic will know exactly what he meant.

 

Mike Ryan has been on record for saying previously that social distancing alone will not deal with the virus, that countries had to test and isolate the infected, and take the fight to the virus.

 

Mike Ryan was right. He is obviously no huge believer in enforced social distancing, and hence his praise for the Swedish model, which is characterised by an absence of enforced social distancing, was meant exactly as it sounds. Mike Ryan does not believe that mandatory social distancing is necessary. He made clear that Sweden's model of asking people to self-isolate if appropriate was working and was the best way of dealing with the pandemic. 

 

This Swedish approach, of not using enforced social distancing, except for minor exceptions, was in place since the very start. This is what Mike Ryan praised. Not anything that was put in place later. Somebody on here was trying to spin this news in completely the wrong way.

 

Obviously Mike Ryan has looked at the mortality rate in Sweden, which is around 0.02 per cent of the population. 

 

No doubt Mike Ryan, who is not a fan of enforced social distancing, but is a proponent of mass testing, would also advocate more testing is done.

 

Much like was done in New Zealand and Australia. It was said on here that it was their social distancing that got the virus under control there, it was not. It was New Zealand's and Australia's testing which is among the highest anywhere on the planet.

 

If Sweden had tested as well, like Norway, it would also have far less deaths. However, in its approach to social distancing, which is what was praised, Mike Ryan confirmed, that Sweden has it absolutely right. Go for voluntary compliance.

 

Mike Ryan is worth listening to.

 

Not very good really is it?  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by nauseus

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Not very good really is it?  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

 

Well, the fact that someone like Mike Ryan has praised the Swedish model would indicate that they are doing something right.

 

Of course there is a world pandemic going on and there are going to be some infected and some dead.

 

However, in Sweden 0.02 per cent of the population have died. That is a tiny number. So Sweden is doing perfectly fine.

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

Looking at the deaths per million people from this site, confirms Sweden is doing a bit better than the UK, with its extreme social distancing, this despite the fact that the UK's much larger population skews the figures against Sweden.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by Logosone

[PingRoundTheWorld]

22 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

my point was that Japanese cultural practices most certainly have had an impact on the transmission of the  disease. 

Based on what? Official infection rates have been "magically" rising ever since they decided to stop hiding them, and the more they test, the more cases they find, because it's been spreading through the population all along.

 

I've lived in Japan for many years so I think I do know a little about the culture. Yes it's true that they are generally more hygienic and mask usage is more prevalent than the west - but it's not 100% and never was. Even now I see people outside without masks, though fewer than before. Fun fact: almost everybody is wearing cloth or foam masks, which do little to protect you from viruses.

 

On the opposite end - Japanese are notorious for showing up to work and school even when they are sick - missing a day is a cultural no-no. People in Tokyo have zero personal space awareness and it's very common for them to bump into you, not to mention packed like sardines in trains. One of my biggest pet peeves when I lived here was that you couldn't go a single night out without some douchebag getting into your personal space. So no - I don't believe Japanese culture prevented spread - if anything it is opposite as westerners are far more likely to stay home while sick and most places are far less crowded.

 

Interestingly enough - new cases in Sweden have taken a nose dive over the past few days - from 778 peak on 4/29 to 547 on 4/30 and only 64 on 5/1. Not sure if this is due to some testing issue or actual reduction in new infections, but we'll see soon...

[Salerno]

15 hours ago, Stygge said:

... and also given the fact that total numbers of deaths doesn´t deviate very much from earlier years.

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

nterestingly enough - new cases in Sweden have taken a nose dive over the past few days - from 778 peak on 4/29 to 547 on 4/30 and only 64 on 5/1. Not sure if this is due to some testing issue or actual reduction in new infections, but we'll see soon...

It is due to holidays in Sweden (Walpurgis) and offices not being open to report new cases and deaths. Expect very low number of cases until Tuesday and then a lot reported then. It you look at numbers of reported cases and deaths in Sweden they are always much lower on weekends/holidays.

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Based on what? Official infection rates have been "magically" rising ever since they decided to stop hiding them, and the more they test, the more cases they find, because it's been spreading through the population all along.

 

 

And of course it should be emphasized that Japan is a prime example of the Asian practice of not testing the population to a meaningful degree resulting in questionable number (South Korea exempted on the testing front, but death figures also look unreliable). Many have questioned the Japanese government policy of testing only people who already have very severe symptoms of Covid19, just one example among many, the internet is full of reports that Japan has not been testing adequately:

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52466834

[chessman]

15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Looking at the deaths per million people from this site, confirms Sweden is doing a bit better than the UK, with its extreme social distancing, this despite the fact that the UK's much larger population skews the figures against Sweden.

As you know, in terms of this virus, Sweden has many factors that give it an advantage over the UK. Much lower population density, a high percentage of single households, a very high level of people who already work from home.

 

Much more suitable to compare Sweden to the countries that are most geographically, demographically and culturally similar such as Norway, Finland or Denmark.

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, chessman said:

As you know, in terms of this virus, Sweden has many factors that give it an advantage over the UK. Much lower population density, a high percentage of single households, a very high level of people who already work from home.

 

Much more suitable to compare Sweden to the countries that are most geographically, demographically and culturally similar such as Norway, Finland or Denmark.

So you're saying social distancing is not so important, the number of homeworkers, single househods etc is more important?

 

Actually the population density of Stockholm and London is not world's apart, because London is set over a very large geographic area.

 

Not everyone in Sweden lives in raindeer huts, ten kilometres from a neighbour, they do have cities as well.

[geriatrickid]

23 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No, your statements were false, like pretty much all your statements on here.

 

The other poster actually lived in Japan at that time. What he is saying is that the Japanese did not practice demure cultural social distancing, but instead gathered in crowds in bars long after the West was in lockdown.

 

He should know, he actually lived there.

 

Moreover, Japan's figures have been attacked by experts as being most likely false anyway.

 

What is false about what I have stated?  Just  point out the  factually incorrect statement. 

 

Can you provide  credible  citations to substantiate your position?  Please provide  a reference to the published data that shows long term immunity to  SARS COV 2 in recovered patients.

 

I too have worked in Japan and I was there  as the epidemic was starting.  If you were such an expert then you would know that it is  common practice to close schools and day cares and to reduce public activity during  flu season. As such, those same practices are nothing new in Japan.  Every year there are closures. 

 

You have your own agenda. I am relying on established fact, none of which you can  counter. You claim my statements are false. Like what? Isis it false that the death rate in Sweden has soared to 266/million now? Is it false that it is a linear growth and that there is no "curve" in Sweden? Is it false that Sweden has low testing levels and does not register an infection until there is a  laboratory test? is it false that Sweden was forced to apply lockdown on seniors nursing residences because of the carnage?  Is it  false that the Covid19 infection rates are higher in the  impoverished and visible minority communities? is it false that Norway and Canada have a higher rate of testing, and lower death rate? Is it false that Sweden's central bank  stated that  Sweden's economy will be just as impaired if not more so than peer countries? 

 

Sweden was one of the last holdouts on practices that date back to the Eugenics concepts of the last century. Up until 1976 when the  law was changed to forbid forced sterilization, tens of thousands were carried out on the basis of social, economic and eugenic "principles". The concepts carried over into generations of public health officials such that  students and academics were still being poisoned and contaminated with questionable concepts and practices. Younger generations do not accept those concepts and that is why many of Sweden's top public health and  medical researchers spoke out against the Swedish government's original strategy. The most vociferous supporters of the previous Swedish strategy were not health professionals.

 

As you are a self proclaimed  infectious disease expert, go and read the published study last month of Haruka Sakamoto, MD, MPH; Masahiro Ishikane, MD, PhD; Peter Ueda, MD, PhD published in the journal of of the American Medical Association.  According to you they made false statements too with this;

 

Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak began, measures for avoiding disease transmission have been widely promoted in Japan, such as use of masks and handwashing, remote work, and cancellation of large events.

 

By extrapolation of the impact on seasonal infections, they found that the  efforts to contain the  spread of Covid 19  worked. Seasonal flu was worse in the world this year, but the japanese study is consistent with the view that  Covid19 prevention measures reduced the spread of seasonal flu. because of that, they believe that the spread of covid 19 was positively impacted too. It is common sense, but you do not accept that.

 

What's next, a  passionate defense of eugenics? 

 

 

 

 

[MikeyIdea]

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

Which makes the lockdowns in countries like India even more insane.

 

If no space at home, multiple generations and sometimes different families in one dwelling, shared sanitary facilities, limited water supply, a cash based economy with no social security safety net - all teams a lockdown will inevitably result in a super-spreading community, like a massive Diamond Princess.

Comment on what you write in bold above

 

The lockdown in very densely populated China is an economical success story.

 

I expect that we will see that the Corona virus is quite a lot less efficient at higher temperatures.

Edited May 2, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[chessman]

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

So you're saying social distancing is not so important, the number of homeworkers, single househods etc is more important?

 

Actually the population density of Stockholm and London is not world's apart, because London is set over a very large geographic area.

 

Not everyone in Sweden lives in raindeer huts, ten kilometres from a neighbour, they do have cities as well.

I think social distancing is important, the UK started too late, that is why they are now (likely) going to have the most number of deaths in Europe. I haven't seen a good argument against this. The R0 number has been brought down (they say) to slightly below 1. If had been allowed to carry on at above 2 there would have been many more cases and deaths.

 

Sweden has been spared what has happened in the UK this because of the advantages listed above but their numbers are much much worse than the neighbouring countries that are geographically, demographically and culturally similar.

 

Your argument about the high population density of Stockholm doesn't stack up. Stockholm does have a high population density but has a really big percentage of total deaths in Sweden. Much more than half the deaths despite less than a quarter of the population.

[MikeyIdea]

6 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

What is false about what I have stated?  Just  point out the  factually incorrect statement.  

 

6 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

I am relying on established fact, none of which you can  counter. You claim my statements are false. Like what? Is it false that the death rate in Sweden has soared to 266/million now? Is it false that it is a linear growth and that there is no "curve" in Sweden? Is it false that Sweden has low testing levels and does not register an infection until there is a  laboratory test? is it false that Sweden was forced to apply lockdown on seniors nursing residences because of the carnage?  Is it  false that the Covid19 infection rates are higher in the  impoverished and visible minority communities? is it false that Norway and Canada have a higher rate of testing, and lower death rate? Is it false that Sweden's central bank  stated that  Sweden's economy will be just as impaired if not more so than peer countries? 

 

The above are all factual truths

[geriatrickid]

23 minutes ago, Logosone said:

So you're saying social distancing is not so important, the number of homeworkers, single househods etc is more important?

 

Actually the population density of Stockholm and London is not world's apart, because London is set over a very large geographic area.

 

Not everyone in Sweden lives in raindeer huts, ten kilometres from a neighbour, they do have cities as well.

You are taking his statement out of context  and twisting it to fit your personal agenda.

 

In the UK, Covid 19  is not centralized in London. It is much easier to have voluntary social distancing where the space exists. Sweden has more people per capital who are "single" dwellers than the UK. How difficult is it for you to grasp that people who live alone will have an easier time to voluntarily self isolate?

 

The population density in the United Kingdom is 281 per Km2 (727 people per mi2).

The population density in Sweden is 25 per Km2 (64 people per mi2).

 

A lower population density makes it easier to  voluntarily self isolate.

 

Or, are all these established facts  lies too?

[yuyiinthesky]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

What is false about what I have stated?  Just  point out the  factually incorrect statement. 

Almost all your conclusions.

[yuyiinthesky]

 

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

Is it false that Sweden has low testing levels and does not register an infection until there is a  laboratory test?

 

I don't understand this focus on testing and testing. We know by now that about 90% of the infected will not get sick. I do not see the benefit of a test, which apparently often even gives false results. And which can be invalid a few hours later, when an infection might have occurred.

 

And then these statistics, comparing data which was collected using different criteria. Not really meaningful.

What is important is to keep the overall death rate low, as low as possible. I fully agree that the elderly should be protected, and, if sick, treated. The hospitals have the capacity for that.

And that is the important part, as long as the hospitals are not overwhelmed (and thanks to the lack of panic they are not) they can actually take care of the sick. And that is important, and it doesn't matter if the stats are higher or lower, for whatever reasons.

 

All this lockdown hype and social distancing hype is totally ignoring that the big dying, the exponential dying all over the world is not happening. You should be happy about that, and celebrate it. The big bad virus is not as deadly as first thought, but far less.

And all this lockdown hype and social distancing hype is ignoring that flattening the curve does not mean there will be less infections, but that the infections will be spread over a longer period of time. Some here misunderstand that, talk as if flattening the curve will stop the virus from spreading. Well it doesn't, it just slows it down. Which we got told is needed because otherwise the hospitals would be overwhelmed. Thankfully they aren't, they are even empty.


 

[sirineou]

2 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

I don't understand this focus on testing and testing. We know by now that about 90% of the infected will not get sick. I do not see the benefit of a test, which apparently often even gives false results. And which can be invalid a few hours later, when an infection might have occurred.

How do we know this if it was not for testing?

[chessman]

1 hour ago, yuyiinthesky said:

All this lockdown hype and social distancing hype is totally ignoring that the big dying, the exponential dying all over the world is not happening.

These are the statistics for Italy. Cases and deaths. They locked down on the 11th of March. Look at the percentage growth of cases and deaths before the lockdown. Not exponential? Now look at the percentage growth in the last few days. Better right? You’ll see a similar pattern in Spain and France.
 

You think there are other factors for the increases slowing down? Sure, there will be. But put yourself in the shoes of the leader of Italy on March 10th and make your decision based on those daily 20% + rises in cases. How confident would you be that a lockdown won’t help? There’s no vaccine or effective medical treatment so the one thing you can do is reduce the rate of transmission by getting that R0 number from over 2 to under 1. 

 

you think that there was no huge disaster in Sweden? Right, but Sweden has various advantages over Italy already mentioned in this thread. Fairer would be a comparison with Norway that is more similar culturally, geographically and demographically. Sweden had no lockdown and the death rate is currently almost 7 times higher than Norway. Would Italy have 7 times more deaths than it does currently if it hadn’t locked down? You tell me why not.

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by chessman

[Stygge]

I can see persistant argument appearing freaquently among the posts here.
 

1. Sweden should be compared to neighbouring countries Denmark, Norway and Finland.
 

Yes. But. Finland for sure didn´t count death in nursing homes. The other ones I don´t know.

Compared to Norway the experts point out that much of the difference depends on the fact that Norway has been able to protect their nursing homes better then Sweden. Take away deaths on nursing homes and the difference is negible. There are serveral reasons for this failure that depends on different structure and organization of the countries nursing homes. One of these differences is that in Sweden the nursing homes are much larger units with many more old people living close togehter, which help the virus to spread quickly to many. Also Swedish laws doesn´t allow restraining patients with dementia, which allowes them to move around infecting other patients. There has also been insufficient testing and precaution by the staff allowing symptom free personal to infect patients. All these flaws are now being corrected but its effect can still be noticed in high number of deaths in nursing homes.

 

2. Swedens high numbers depends on low testing.

There is hard to understand how great numbers of testing would improve the situation. The important thing is to registrer the death in Covid19 correctly and compare them with the total population. Much more important is also to test for antibodies for the virus. Now this test is available and reliable and massive testing for this will be done now.

 

3. Still, the numbers don´t lie. Sweden has higher deaths then similar countries.

Yes, but again, take away the failure of protecting the nursing homes the figures are not alamingly higher then any other country. And again; One must compare Sweden´s death rate today with countries soon opening up. The general belief is that when locked down countries open up their death rate will increase.

It means we must wait a month or two to do an actual comparison. By the way; experts predict Sweden´s final death rate for Covid 19 to be about 8-10 000 people. The time period for this is 1-2 years ahead, depending on the arrival of a dependeble vaccin. An effective antiviral medicin during this period can also bring the numbers down. I think these numbers will be considered low in comparison with many other countries during this period.

4. Sweden´s economy will hurt as much as the rest of the world.

Only half right. Sweden has a hight proportion av big multinational companies, and is in general a very export dependent country. An impoverished world, mainly in lock down of course hurt the Swedish economy greatly. Therefore the bleak forecast the coming year. But the national economy remains largely unhurt when remaining restrictions are lifted. Since restaruants, self eployed and small businesses has been able to stay open during this period they can quickly recuperate. Sweden also has a lagre proportion of tech companies not suffering much from present worldwide self inflicted depression. As a whole the prediction is that Sweden will come out of this ordeal comparativle much better then the surrounding world, with less economical and emotional agony for its population.

 

 

 

 

 

[Kinnock]

6 hours ago, MikeyIdea said:

Comment on what you write in bold above

 

The lockdown in very densely populated China is an economical success story.

 

I expect that we will see that the Corona virus is quite a lot less efficient at higher temperatures.

China did not lockdown the whole country.  I think people misunderstood what they saw in China, and just copied parts of it.

 

I work with teams throughout Asia, including China, so was following developments as they happened, and was alarmed to see the economically damaging and largely pointless actions in some countries.

 

China locked down Hubei Province, but the key factors were universal use of masks and strict enforcement of separation distances in other regions.  Then certain types of higher risk activities were also restricted.

 

Australia largely followed this model, except for the masks.

 

Quarantine of healthy people makes no sense, unless your only aim is to protect an already weak and dysfunctional health service, at a massive cost to the economy.

 

Educating people in basic public health measures, and investing the billions wasted to prop up businesses on an improved health service to get us ready for COVID 21, 22, 23 would have been a better plan.

[Logosone]

8 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

What is false about what I have stated?  Just  point out the  factually incorrect statement. 

 

Can you provide  credible  citations to substantiate your position?  Please provide  a reference to the published data that shows long term immunity to  SARS COV 2 in recovered patients.

 

I too have worked in Japan and I was there  as the epidemic was starting.  If you were such an expert then you would know that it is  common practice to close schools and day cares and to reduce public activity during  flu season. As such, those same practices are nothing new in Japan.  Every year there are closures. 

 

You have your own agenda. I am relying on established fact, none of which you can  counter. You claim my statements are false. Like what? Isis it false that the death rate in Sweden has soared to 266/million now? Is it false that it is a linear growth and that there is no "curve" in Sweden? Is it false that Sweden has low testing levels and does not register an infection until there is a  laboratory test? is it false that Sweden was forced to apply lockdown on seniors nursing residences because of the carnage?  Is it  false that the Covid19 infection rates are higher in the  impoverished and visible minority communities? is it false that Norway and Canada have a higher rate of testing, and lower death rate? Is it false that Sweden's central bank  stated that  Sweden's economy will be just as impaired if not more so than peer countries? 

 

Sweden was one of the last holdouts on practices that date back to the Eugenics concepts of the last century. Up until 1976 when the  law was changed to forbid forced sterilization, tens of thousands were carried out on the basis of social, economic and eugenic "principles". The concepts carried over into generations of public health officials such that  students and academics were still being poisoned and contaminated with questionable concepts and practices. Younger generations do not accept those concepts and that is why many of Sweden's top public health and  medical researchers spoke out against the Swedish government's original strategy. The most vociferous supporters of the previous Swedish strategy were not health professionals.

 

As you are a self proclaimed  infectious disease expert, go and read the published study last month of Haruka Sakamoto, MD, MPH; Masahiro Ishikane, MD, PhD; Peter Ueda, MD, PhD published in the journal of of the American Medical Association.  According to you they made false statements too with this;

 

Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak began, measures for avoiding disease transmission have been widely promoted in Japan, such as use of masks and handwashing, remote work, and cancellation of large events.

 

By extrapolation of the impact on seasonal infections, they found that the  efforts to contain the  spread of Covid 19  worked. Seasonal flu was worse in the world this year, but the japanese study is consistent with the view that  Covid19 prevention measures reduced the spread of seasonal flu. because of that, they believe that the spread of covid 19 was positively impacted too. It is common sense, but you do not accept that.

 

What's next, a  passionate defense of eugenics? 

 

 

 

 

 

If I had to list all your false statements I would literally have to focus on that for hours, because in every post of yours you have made false statements which simply do not correspond with reality. I will simply address a few.

 

When it was pointed out to you that Japan, like Sweden, had also not put social distancing measures in place, long after some in the West had gone into full social distancing mode, which was the case at the latest by 20th March you replied that "Japan's key to success" was that its culture just impeded the process of virus transmission. You stated "More importantly and the key to Japan's success was that the japanese complied with  self isolation requirements ....No one was violating  containment  as they did in western countries."

 

As has been pointed out to you by someone who actually lives in Japan, that is just false.

 

The message coming out of Japan is that there is massive non-compliance with self-isolation calls, that bars and restaurants have been packed and full in April and were open long after those in the West had closed. Indeed, it wasn't just the general public in Japan, that continued to enjoy the nightlife, despite calls for staying at home,  a prominent member of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Takashi Takai, a lawmaker, was expelled from his party for visiting a Japanese hostess bar.

 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/15/national/cdp-lawmaker-quit-party-hostess-bar-coronavirus/#.Xq4esp4zaCg

 

Your statement that "No one was violating  containment  as they did in western countries" could not be any more false. It is utterly and completely false.

 

Maybe also read the Time article "Why Many Japanese People Are Ignoring Their Government’s Pleas to Stay Home During a Major Holiday Break". It says:

 

"In the western suburb of Kichijoji, narrow shopping streets were jammed during the weekend with families strolling and heading to lunch. Pachinko pinball parlors have drawn ire for staying open despite name-and-shame announcements and other pressure to close. Bars and restaurants are ignoring a requested 8 p.m. closing time."

 

https://time.com/5830612/japan-coronavirus-golden-week/

 

So again, your claim that "No one was violating  containment  as they did in western countries" is just false. Japan has been notorious for ignoring calls for self-isolation. Much like in Sweden, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has insisted Japan will not adopt UK-style hard lockdowns that would paralyze the economy. To the extent local governors imposed restrictions they were widely ignored by millions of people.

 

You also claimed part of Japan's "key to success" was that the Japanese wore face masks more than in the West. In reality of course even the evidence in favour of face mask only claims they make a miniscule difference, if any.

 

Then you actually argued that another key to Japans "success" was that "the japanese tracked active cases and identified the infected, isolating them". Again, a completely false statement. How can Japan identify and isolate the infected when they hardly test at all? It is widely known that Japan is one of the countries who has hardly done any testing at all, and has been widely criticised for this. See the Wall Street Journal reporting:

 

"Japan, Bucking Consensus, Says Limited Coronavirus Testing Is Enough

 

At a time when the World Health Organization and many countries are pushing to “test, test, test” to help stop the coronavirus pandemic, Japan is swimming against the tide. The country is limiting tests for the new coronavirus to the most vulnerable and at-risk people, reasoning that this provides a good-enough picture of how the disease is progressing. Japan’s testing frequency stands at less than 6% of widely praised aggressive screeners such as Singapore and South Korea—yet it has yet to experience the explosive rise in cases that is supposed to result from limited testing. As of Wednesday, fewer than 2,500 people in this country of 126 million were diagnosed with the new coronavirus, around the same number as tiny Luxembourg. Fifty-seven people have died.

 

Some experts blame undertesting for the recent emergence of clusters of infected people."

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-bucking-consensus-says-limited-coronavirus-testing-is-enough-11585758630

 

So in fact Japan is undertesting. They are hardly doing any testing. So your claim that another "key to success" of Japan was "the japanese tracked active cases and identified the infected, isolating them", is again patently false. How can the Japanese identify and isolate the infected, when they are hardly testing at all? They are undertesting, and only testing the worst cases and very ill.

 

Japan's numbers are not reliable, you can't even talk about "Japan's success" yet because we will have to see how Japan develops. However, what is very clear is that if Japan succeeds it will not be because of magic cultural advantages, or because they wear face masks, it will be because social distancing was wholly unnecessary. And like with Sweden, it is patently the case that enforced social distancing UK style has not been put in place in Japan. If Japan does suceed we certainly have to conceded that it will no be because of enforced social distancing.

 

You also made claims about Sweden's economy being in worse shape than economies like the UK, which are completely false. You took this from a CNBC article which you did not attribute to, but unfortunately for you turns out that article is completely wrong. That article took old data and compared it with new Swedish data. In fact whilst Sweden's economy is predicted, due to global economic conditions, to shrink by 6.9%, the most recent predictions predict a contraction in the UK, assuming lockdown ends on 31 May, much worse if it continues, of 12%. If the UK's enforced lockdown continues the UK economy is set to shrink to 19%. So your argument that lockdowns don't cause worse economic devastation is patently false.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/01/long-lockdown-shrink-uk-economy-fifth-2020-study-coronavirus

 

I mean I could go on and on and dissect your many, many false statements, if you wish.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

7 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

 

The population density in the United Kingdom is 281 per Km2 (727 people per mi2).

The population density in Sweden is 25 per Km2 (64 people per mi2).

 

A lower population density makes it easier to  voluntarily self isolate.

 

Or, are all these established facts  lies too?

 

The population density of Stockholm is 4,800 people per square kilometre. 

 

https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/stockholm-population/

 

The population density of Greater London is 4,542 inhabitants per square kilometre.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London

 

This is because London is set on a much larger geographical area.

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say the claims about population density are "lies", just people being poorly informed.

 

When claims are made that population density, single households, homeworking etc favour Sweden we are losing sight of the main issue.

 

The main issue is that the UK is a country with vastly greater resources than Sweden, many more labs, many more reknown universities and epidemiology academics, and much higher rate ones, and the UK has decided to put its country into an enforced lockdown. Sweden has not.

 

And yet it would appear that Sweden's figures are better than the UK's. Then we look at Japan, another country where neither enforced lockdowns or mass testing were done, and again there is no apocalypse of the kind people like Neil Ferguson predicted.

 

So the key question really is, are enforced lockdowns necessary? Mike Ryan of the WHO has said clearly, no they are not and Sweden, not the UK, is the model for the future.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Logosone

[Logosone]

5 hours ago, chessman said:

These are the statistics for Italy. Cases and deaths. They locked down on the 11th of March. Look at the percentage growth of cases and deaths before the lockdown. Not exponential? Now look at the percentage growth in the last few days. Better right? You’ll see a similar pattern in Spain and France.
 

You think there are other factors for the increases slowing down? Sure, there will be. But put yourself in the shoes of the leader of Italy on March 10th and make your decision based on those daily 20% + rises in cases. How confident would you be that a lockdown won’t help? There’s no vaccine or effective medical treatment so the one thing you can do is reduce the rate of transmission by getting that R0 number from over 2 to under 1. 

 

you think that there was no huge disaster in Sweden? Right, but Sweden has various advantages over Italy already mentioned in this thread. Fairer would be a comparison with Norway that is more similar culturally, geographically and demographically. Sweden had no lockdown and the death rate is currently almost 7 times higher than Norway. Would Italy have 7 times more deaths than it does currently if it hadn’t locked down? You tell me why not.

 

 

This is really a fantastic misinterpretation of the data. 

 

Italy did not go into lockdown on 11 March. The lockdown in Italy was phased in in stages. Already on 1st March Italy put some areas in quarantine, and closed cinemas, theatres and schools in some areas. 

 

"On 1 March, the Council of Ministers approved a decree to organise the containment of the outbreak. In the decree, the Italian national territory was divided into three areas: A red zone (composed of the municipalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia and Terranova dei Passerini in Lombardy, and the municipality of Vò in Veneto), where the whole population is in quarantine. A yellow zone (composed of the regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna), where social and sport events are suspended and schools, theatres, clubs and cinemas are closed. The rest of the national territory, where safety and prevention measures are advertised in public places and special sanitisations are performed on means of public transport."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

 

Obviously at the very beginning growth numbers of new cases will be higher, that's just a normal statistical development, to attribute the later lower numbers to lockdown is devoid of any evidence of the social lockdown as a causative factor.

 

In fact the lockdown in Italy got progressively worse and the mortality in Italy kept increasing. If anything Italy is the poster child for the ineffectiveness of lockdowns.

 

Since you claim that Sweden has a huge advantage, despite much lower resources than the UK or Italy, due to lower population density, even though Stockholm's population density is actually higher than Greater London's, let's apply this theory to Italy.

 

According to your theory Rome would have been at a disadvantage since it has a population density of 2232 people per square kilometre, compared to Brescia, which has a population density of 2200 people per square kilomtere, however, Brescia had 13000 cases and Rome had 4863 cases. This despite the fact that Rome is a travel hub and Italy's patient zeros were found in Rome. So if population  density is such a crucial, determining, advantage it is rather odd that Rome was not worse affected than Brescia. Clearly other factors are more important than population density, which is just one factor. The same applies in Germany Heinsberg was the fourth worst affected area per capita, worse affected than Cologne, Stuttgart or other more population dense urban areas.

 

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/italy/covid/

 

Population density is not the determining factor that you think it is.

 

As to your points about Norway, Norway has tested and isolated far more than Sweden has. If Sweden had done the testing and isolating its figures would be closer to Norway's.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Logosone

[chessman]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

Since you claim that Sweden has a huge advantage, despite much lower resources than the UK or Italy, due to lower population density, even though Stockholm's population density is actually higher than Greater London's, let's apply this theory to Italy.

As I have pointed out to you, this argument doesn’t hold water at all. Stockholm have over half the deaths in Sweden but much less than a quarter of the population. The one place that has a high population density has a really high death rate (well over double the Swedish average).
 

There has also been a huge increase in cases in the province that has the 2nd largest Swedish city, Gothenburg, in the last week... this is bad news for Sweden.

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, chessman said:

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

Since you claim that Sweden has a huge advantage, despite much lower resources than the UK or Italy, due to lower population density, even though Stockholm's population density is actually higher than Greater London's, let's apply this theory to Italy.

As I have pointed out to you, this argument doesn’t hold water at all. Stockholm have over half the deaths in Sweden but much less than a quarter of the population. The one place that has a high population density has a really high death rate (well over double the Swedish average).
 

There has also been a huge increase in cases in the province that has the 2nd largest Swedish city, Gothenburg, in the last week... this is bad news for Sweden.

I thought there were no doubts about the link between covid death rates and population density and air pollution.

The most affected area of Italy could be compared to an "extended city" and an  extremely populated and polluted large area.

[chessman]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

Obviously at the very beginning growth numbers of new cases will be higher, that's just a normal statistical development, to attribute the later lower numbers to lockdown is devoid of any evidence of the social lockdown as a causative factor.

What evidence could possibly show that the lockdown was effective or not? How would that evidence look?  On one hand there are countries that locked down and reduced the percentage of increases and deaths based on a known principle of NPIs. On the other hand is you, shaking your head, saying ‘obviously’, the reduction is ‘normal statistical development’. Ridiculous!

[chessman]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

This is really a fantastic misinterpretation of the data. 

 

Italy did not go into lockdown on 11 March. The lockdown in Italy was phased in in stages. Already on 1st March Italy put some areas in quarantine, and closed cinemas, theatres and schools in some areas. 

 

"On 1 March, the Council of Ministers approved a decree to organise the containment of the outbreak. In the decree, the Italian national territory was divided into three areas: A red zone (composed of the municipalities of Bertonico, Casalpusterlengo, Castelgerundo, Castiglione D'Adda, Codogno, Fombio, Maleo, San Fiorano, Somaglia and Terranova dei Passerini in Lombardy, and the municipality of Vò in Veneto), where the whole population is in quarantine. A yellow zone (composed of the regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna), where social and sport events are suspended and schools, theatres, clubs and cinemas are closed. The rest of the national territory, where safety and prevention measures are advertised in public places and special sanitisations are performed on means of public transport."

Fantastic quibbling here. You say ‘fantastic misinterpretation’ but Lockdown in Italy started in early March, by late March the % increase was falling. Fact!

[cornishcarlos]

27 minutes ago, chessman said:

Fantastic quibbling here. You say ‘fantastic misinterpretation’ but Lockdown in Italy started in early March, by late March the % increase was falling. Fact!

 

Because everyone was infected and those that were going to die, died....??  The numbers have to come down eventually.