WHO does a 180, now lauds Swedish model

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

 

As evident by your curve, the Italians reacted slowly like everyone else. By 25th March it was already too late for testing to help slow the spread and the Italians were in full lockdown in Lombardy. It is the lockdowns which have slowed the spread. Testing is useful but does not stop the spread itself unless it is very early and the infected people are quarantined and treated if necessary. 

 

The 'flawed' Imperial report is still being used as a reference even now. Neil Ferguson's individual figure was different. You can see from the VDO that, yes, UK hospitals and the NHS would have been totally overwhelmed without mitigation (lockdown) measures. But you are wrong in that as things did turn out, the NHS was not overwhelmed and you comment that the NHS can do little for Covid19 patients is so insulting to NHS staff.

 

Your other comment about enough tests, ventilators and PPE is only partially true but these things were related to treatment facilities within hospitals. Further spread was only slowed and contained by lockdown outside hospitals. This Ferguson chap is not alone with his views and the report was produced by several peers.

 

If the UK had continued like Sweden Boris would probably be out already.

The Italians reacted a little bit earlier than everyone else, bear in mind the EU did not end flights from China until 17 March and the UK did not put proper lockdown in place until around the same time.

 

Of course in an ideal world the measures would have come earlier, but by comparison the Italians reacted earlier than almost anyone else.

 

It was not too late to test and isolate the infected in Italy, however, this was obviously not done in a satisfactory manner, the tracing may have been the problem.

 

Testing and isolating the infected is the effective, and the only way to take the fight to the virus, social distancing only slows the infection, it doesn't end it. Isolating the infected can end it. Though yes, this was not done sufficiently well in Italy.

 

Lockdowns may have slowed the spread, but they can not end a pandemic, only delay it. Testing and isolating can end it.

 

I'm fully aware that the UK government is still relying on Neil Ferguson and Imperial College, and that's of course why the UK has performed so badly. The UK experts have been poor, weak and not thorough enough.

 

The NHS was overwhelmed, if you think the NHS is actually helping people infected with Covid19 you may want to read this story of a man who was discharged by an NHS hospital despite having Covid 19, in other words left to die at home. Another doctor the son drafted in to help refused to attend to the man citing lack of PPE.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8280913/Son-55-nurses-Covid-stricken-father-81-health-released-hospital-die.html

 

Anecdotal evidence? The UK's own figures state that of those who go on ventilators 7 out of 10 do not make it (34% survival rate once on a ventilator).

 

Boris Johnson unfortunately will have to pay the price for his experts' poor performance, and indeed the NHS' poor performance. I understand the devotion the NHS generates, but figures don't lie. PHE in England has been a disaster. Rebuttals of the Sun on their website. Undignified time wasters.

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

 

The 'flawed' Imperial report is still being used as a reference even now. Neil Ferguson's individual figure was different. You can see from the VDO that, yes, UK hospitals and the NHS would have been totally overwhelmed without mitigation (lockdown) measures. But you are wrong in that as things did turn out, the NHS was not overwhelmed and you comment that the NHS can do little for Covid19 patients is so insulting to NHS staff.

 

 

Neil Ferguson's report is seriously flawed, I read it again, 40 million deaths this year, I mean you can't take it seriously. Even your own UK experts have seriously questioned Neil Ferguson's work:

 

"Experts have cast doubt on the work of a key scientist whose apocalyptic prediction that coronavirus could kill 500,000 Britons led Boris Johnson to decide he had to lock down the country. Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London, authored a report which forecast that terrible death toll if nothing was done to stop the spread of the disease.

 

Now a rival academic has claimed Prof Ferguson has a patchy record of modelling epidemics, which could have led to hasty Ministerial decisions. Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University said Prof Ferguson was previously instrumental in modelling that led to the cull of more than 6 million animals during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, which left rural Britain economically devastated.

Then, Prof Ferguson and his Imperial colleagues concluded: 'Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic.' But Prof Thrusfield, an expert in animal diseases, claimed the model made incorrect assumptions about how foot and mouth disease was transmitted and, in a 2006 review, he claimed Imperial's foot and mouth model was 'not fit for purpose', while in 2011 he said it was 'severely flawed'. Prof Thrusfield told The Daily Telegraph the episode was 'a cautionary tale' about the limits of mathematical modelling and he felt a sense of 'déjà vu' about the current situation."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8258043/Professor-Neil-Ferguson-warns-100-000-UK-coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-lifted-soon.html

 

In other words, this is not the first time Neil Ferguson got it terribly wrong, and again the UK is paying the price for his serious errors.

[MikeyIdea]

A couple of comments without quotes

 

Gothenburg's infections are taking off now, not so much that we should call it a huge spike though. 

 

Someone posted that Swedes follow social distancing recommendations well. That is not correct. Here's a good example: I had a nice dinner at a restaurant in the gothenburg archipelago a week ago. The tables were spread out well enough but people totally ignored distancing rules when queueing for food. They follow the recommendations only when it's convenient to do so. 

 

Sweden clearly needs stricter rules and stricter enforcement, the curve is far from flat enough.

Edited May 3, 2020 by MikeyIdea

[nauseus]

28 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The Italians reacted a little bit earlier than everyone else, bear in mind the EU did not end flights from China until 17 March and the UK did not put proper lockdown in place until around the same time.

 

Of course in an ideal world the measures would have come earlier, but by comparison the Italians reacted earlier than almost anyone else.

 

It was not too late to test and isolate the infected in Italy, however, this was obviously not done in a satisfactory manner, the tracing may have been the problem.

 

Testing and isolating the infected is the effective, and the only way to take the fight to the virus, social distancing only slows the infection, it doesn't end it. Isolating the infected can end it. Though yes, this was not done sufficiently well in Italy.

 

Lockdowns may have slowed the spread, but they can not end a pandemic, only delay it. Testing and isolating can end it.

 

I'm fully aware that the UK government is still relying on Neil Ferguson and Imperial College, and that's of course why the UK has performed so badly. The UK experts have been poor, weak and not thorough enough.

 

The NHS was overwhelmed, if you think the NHS is actually helping people infected with Covid19 you may want to read this story of a man who was discharged by an NHS hospital despite having Covid 19, in other words left to die at home. Another doctor the son drafted in to help refused to attend to the man citing lack of PPE.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8280913/Son-55-nurses-Covid-stricken-father-81-health-released-hospital-die.html

 

Anecdotal evidence? The UK's own figures state that of those who go on ventilators 7 out of 10 do not make it (34% survival rate once on a ventilator).

 

Boris Johnson unfortunately will have to pay the price for his experts' poor performance, and indeed the NHS' poor performance. I understand the devotion the NHS generates, but figures don't lie. PHE in England has been a disaster. Rebuttals of the Sun on their website. Undignified time wasters.

 

 

 

 

 

You use one story to try to show the NHS was overwhelmed but that a senior consultant told him the hospital would not be able to ventilate his father because his weak lungs would give way might tell you why the patient was discharged. These doctors have to make quick decisions on the use of ventilators. You always drift away from the point.  

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

You use one story to try to show the NHS was overwhelmed but that a senior consultant told him the hospital would not be able to ventilate his father because his weak lungs would give way might tell you why the patient was discharged. These doctors have to make quick decisions on the use of ventilators. You always drift away from the point.  

No, that was a shocking story, a Covid19 patient discharged by an NHS hospital and sent to die at home.

 

But I also gave hard figures. The NHS itself says that out of 10 only 3 make it past the ventilator. Seven out of ten don't make it.

 

That's not anecdotal. Those are the actual figures.

 

Btw, the NHS assessment of that patient's survival chances was obviously flawed, as he did actually survive. No thanks to the NHS.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Logosone

[MikeyIdea]

4 hours ago, steelepulse said:

I wonder what the numbers would look like if you took out the nursing home deaths in Sweden?  

Sorry, my miss before. There will be slightly more than 50% left, not less. 

[chessman]

24 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You always drift away from the point.  

Indeed. Always to the UK and the NHS too, even though Sweden is much more similar to it’s neighbours.

[Logosone]

10 minutes ago, chessman said:

Indeed. Always to the UK and the NHS too, even though Sweden is much more similar to it’s neighbours.

It was nauseus who mentioned Imperial College and the UK, and that was perfectly fine, I'm happy to reply.

[yuyiinthesky]

Let's see what another Nobel Prize Winner, Professor Michael Levitt (Professor of Structural Biology at the Stanford School of Medicine, and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Chemistry for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems.”) has to say about the Swedish approach:

 

Quote

I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn’t practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity. I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn’t have many cases. They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.

 

There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor.

 

Source: https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/
 

Quote

He describes indiscriminate lockdown measures as “a huge mistake,” and advocates a “smart lockdown” policy, focused on more effective measures, focused on protecting elderly people.

 

[Dumbastheycome]

OMG ! It is not that I am wanting to be confused but  I am incredibly confused ! My poor head  does  not  any  longer know which way to be wobbling.

But I am being forced to confess it is  my lacking in foresight  that has not provided me in  being having the wisdom to  registering a  copyright  and  further   very  profitable franchisee rights to  provide  a platform for   such wonderfully totallay  buffaloe excrement  opinions  about the unkown . Trmp is  my  Guru in that sense  alone in that it provides  such opportunity  for gain out of  suffering.

But I  confess  it  has  created for me an excitement  to  borrow  an access to the regime of the slow herd.

It is  being  very apparent that in the same way as with a new  variant of  religious  attraction that so many are happy to subscribe to it. But not so many are being willing to  being  compliant wit the obvious of  avoiding  part of becoming a victim or an agent of infection.

It is surely that social contact can be a practice  without it  becoming  anti social.

It is  surely that people who  know or  are  being in suspicion of infection  should put  up their  hand.

That is because  those  that possess the residues  of the survival of  humanity are those who  you  are all so wiling  to  throw away !

A  contagion is  not a random event. A contagion is the  result  of ignorance.

It  has  only that importance in  the demonstration  of  potence.

What is it in  a logic that puts the  value  of  excess wealth ahead of  the source of it?

The  continuation of  an economic system that  denies the majority for even that which  is  being   said to to the  basic  human right in existence?

To extract gold  from the  teeth of the  dead  is an acceptable ?

To  annhialate a poor  sector  of  humanity on  the ground of  political philosphical action based  on economical advantage regardless of ?

The  relative  rich who are  being so sad have  so little  compassion for those that are exterminated should  contemplate  the  result of what  may  arise from the survivors.

Sadly that is  not an advancement .

Humanity  has historically ignored  the  concept of  egalitarianism in favor  of wealth and power.

A  gorilla confined  to a reserve  has  more  freedom  of  thought than the  average  presumed itelligent human.

Education and influence  is a market product.

Humanity  is   now the  sad product of a political/philosophical confrontation which  will continue the ignorance . I am  being  hopeful that you  and  your doubtful future  generations may embrace  some genuine comprehensions of  reality.

As it is  now we are  victim to the derangement of that which we have willingly allowed.

Shame on  you  and  me.

 

 

 

 

 

[yuyiinthesky]

Interestingly an Israelian Top mathematician, Prof Isaac Ben-Israel (head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, head of Israel’s Space Agency) sees a similar pattern to what  Professor Michael Levitt describes:

 

Quote

... simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

 

Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

[Logosone]

30 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Let's see what another Nobel Prize Winner, Professor Michael Levitt (Professor of Structural Biology at the Stanford School of Medicine, and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Chemistry for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems.”) has to say about the Swedish approach:

 

 

Source: https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/
 

 

Very interesting perspective from Michael Levitt, who of course shot to fame by predicting the end of the Chinese outbreak almost exactly to the day.

[Dumbastheycome]

Get over  yourselves .

Wait  until  the  true  numbers  are revealed  about  50  years  on ! And  your  numerical  ID track  says  you are terminally ceased !  ( But  maybe  you  still have  a tax  debit ! )          

[geriatrickid]

13 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

If I had to list all your false statements I would literally have to focus on that for hours, because in every post of yours you have made false statements which simply do not correspond with reality. I will simply address a few.

 

You also made claims about Sweden's economy being in worse shape than economies like the UK, which are completely false. You took this from a CNBC article which you did not attribute to, but unfortunately for you turns out that article is completely wrong. That article took old data and compared it with new Swedish data. In fact whilst Sweden's economy is predicted, due to global economic conditions, to shrink by 6.9%, the most recent predictions predict a contraction in the UK, assuming lockdown ends on 31 May, much worse if it continues, of 12%. If the UK's enforced lockdown continues the UK economy is set to shrink to 19%. So your argument that lockdowns don't cause worse economic devastation is patently false.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/01/long-lockdown-shrink-uk-economy-fifth-2020-study-coronavirus

 

I mean I could go on and on and dissect your many, many false statements, if you wish.

 

People don't like long posts, so before we dispose of your entire post, we are going to pull out the most pathetic part and let people judge for themselves. We shall show that your entry is a demonstration of a psychotic episode, where anyone who  does not accept your version of events is  wrong and anything contrary stated is a "lie".  

 

Here's an excellent example:

The information on Sweden's economy is  available from the Riksbank report and it shows the GDP impact and includes the  values I used. I cited the Riksbank as the source. Yes there is a CNBC article and it shows the same information and yes, I have read it , but the information was verified at source. Go and read the  information from the Swedish riksbank or is their very grim report, including the one on the zero interest rate a "lie" too?

 

https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2020/monetary-policy-april-2020--the-riksbank-is-supporting-an-economy--in-crisis/

 

You go off on a tangent about the UK. My comment had a passing reference  to the UK and was included to demonstrate that some countries were going to have  results worse than Sweden. Unlike you I do not cherry pick data. The UK information  showed Sweden's projections in a good light because the UK  probable scenario was not as good as the probable scenario in Sweden. 

 

Here's what I wrote;

For comparison sake, the IMF projection of GDP reduction for lockdown countries is;

Germany - 6.5% ; UK - 7% , France - 7.2% contraction, Spain - 8% contraction Italy - 9.1%.  More  appropriate comparisons are with Finland  - 6% and  Denmark - 6.5%

 

Here is the data source https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020   I go with what is published by credible agencies who  use the information to set monetary policy. According to you, the IMF is "out of date".  

What you did was to take a passing reference to the UK,  which actually  showed the Swedish result in a positive manner and then distorted this  to make it appear that the reference was only to the UK and that the UK data was better.

 

Hung up by your petard and on full display to see how you manipulate statements, distort facts to support your imagined reality. 

[Logosone]

38 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

 

People don't like long posts, so before we dispose of your entire post, we are going to pull out the most pathetic part and let people judge for themselves. We shall show that your entry is a demonstration of a psychotic episode, where anyone who  does not accept your version of events is  wrong and anything contrary stated is a "lie".  

 

Here's an excellent example:

The information on Sweden's economy is  available from the Riksbank report and it shows the GDP impact and includes the  values I used. I cited the Riksbank as the source. Yes there is a CNBC article and it shows the same information and yes, I have read it , but the information was verified at source. Go and read the  information from the Swedish riksbank or is their very grim report, including the one on the zero interest rate a "lie" too?

 

https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2020/monetary-policy-april-2020--the-riksbank-is-supporting-an-economy--in-crisis/

 

You go off on a tangent about the UK. My comment had a passing reference  to the UK and was included to demonstrate that some countries were going to have  results worse than Sweden. Unlike you I do not cherry pick data. The UK information  showed Sweden's projections in a good light because the UK  probable scenario was not as good as the probable scenario in Sweden. 

 

Here's what I wrote;

For comparison sake, the IMF projection of GDP reduction for lockdown countries is;

Germany - 6.5% ; UK - 7% , France - 7.2% contraction, Spain - 8% contraction Italy - 9.1%.  More  appropriate comparisons are with Finland  - 6% and  Denmark - 6.5%

 

Here is the data source https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020   I go with what is published by credible agencies who  use the information to set monetary policy. According to you, the IMF is "out of date".  

What you did was to take a passing reference to the UK,  which actually  showed the Swedish result in a positive manner and then distorted this  to make it appear that the reference was only to the UK and that the UK data was better.

 

Hung up by your petard and on full display to see how you manipulate statements, distort facts to support your imagined reality. 

Lol, that's quite a Strawman you built there. Must have taken a while.

 

Of course if you read my post properly you'll see I never corrected the Riksbank figure. I took issue with the forecast for the UK GDP contraction figure you posted. A more up to date estimate of 12% contraction, on the basis of the lockdown lasting until 31 May, comes from the UK itself. With a much worse figure if the lockdown continues.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/01/long-lockdown-shrink-uk-economy-fifth-2020-study-coronavirus

 

Not a word on the Japanese fiasco then?  

 

Understandable.

[sead]

On 5/1/2020 at 7:30 AM, geriatrickid said:

Sweden's approach changed and the WHO comments are in respect to the changes that Sweden put into place. It is Sweden that effected a major change in policy  once it became evident that Sweden had one of the highest death rates in Europe for its region and that its original strategy was not protecting the population. Sweden's brilliant initial strategy has given it  a death rate of close to 140 per million.  Finland, which embraced a stricter social distancing policy is at 15.  As New Zealand has shown, strict social distancing in  small population countries  works. New Zealand did not allow a  massive kill off of its citizens and the population will not be  plagued by chronic health conditions due to the long lasting secondary damage associated with Covid19.   Next door Norway used  significantly tougher measures and kept its death rate per million under 30.

WHO is praising the measures taken by Sweden last month that included; Prohibition of public gatherings of more than 50 people with stiff penalties for non compliance,  and more testing and tracking of infections. As the elderly started to die, Sweden put into a place a no visitors policy  as of April 1, at old age  residences. It has also recommended staying home and not going to restaurants or bars.  The educated are following that guidance.

 

I do not know how anyone can call Sweden's population homogeneous when 25%  is composed of non Swedish ethnic groups.  The fact is that Sweden  has  a growing ethical crisis on its hand as the overwhelming number of seriously ill and dead, aside from the elderly,  are from visible  ethnic groups. Unlike other countries such as the UK, Germany, Canada, USA Sweden made little effort to educate its poorer, less educated ethnic community.    Do not misinterpret the WHO's   attempt to encourage the Swedish changes as an endorsement of Sweden's failed strategy.

 

 

Little effort to educate poorer people. What on earth are you talking about. i had to read it couple of times just to be sure i read it correctly. All immigrants in Sweden are getting paid school, free apartments and everything paid for. So please tell me you wrote something wrong in there.....

[geriatrickid]

6 hours ago, Walker88 said:

This is the anecdotal evidence so far regarding CV-19, all of which is subject to further study:

 

-Most vulnerable are those with weak immune systems...the aged, obese, smokers and vapers, high blood pressure, asthma and other lung ailments, HIV+

-Getting a massive viral load is a threat even to those with strong immune systems; note frontline healthcare worker deaths

-CV-19 doesn't survive as long in conditions of high heat, high humidity, and UV light...good for the hot season in SEAsia

-Some infected appear to develop antibodies that prevent re-infection, but this is not universal

-CV-19 seems to have some effect on blood clotting, which makes even those who suffered a moderate case prone to strokes

 

Sweden is serving as a 'control group' and much will be learned from how that country fares over the next year when the Second Wave hits.

You left out the most crucial of factors; Genetic.

We are seeing cases of the elderly surviving; even extreme examples of people in their 80's 90's and even a couple 100+ surviving infection. At the same time we are seeing some very brutal infections in the young and even deaths in 20-40 year olds.  We see some   smokers survive and high risk patients survive, while others with no high risk characteristics go quickly.  Some call it luck. I think it has a lot to do with the genetic makeup of the patient.

 

It all comes down to the genetic material we have  that gives each  human an almost unique immunological profile. With each shuffle of the our leukocyte alleles, a different combination of  the genetic code is created which can impart susceptibility or resistance to a disease or an infection. The classic example is malaria: Those who are prone to blood related genetic disorders like sickle cell anemia are less likely to become infected with malaria.  The condition may eventually kill the person, but it allows the person to minimize the risk of malaria.  In  the Inuit we see a different metabolism of fat. It made them more likely to survive the brutal cold and seasonal famines associated with living in the far north, but more susceptible to the heart disease and diabetes of the  western world. 

 

20 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

 

I don't understand this focus on testing and testing. We know by now that about 90% of the infected will not get sick. I do not see the benefit of a test, which apparently often even gives false results. And which can be invalid a few hours later, when an infection might have occurred.

 

Where does the 90% value come from? No one knows for sure since reported infections are a function of the number of  diagnostic tests. The current estimate is 80% and that is just an estimate not a definitive value. 

 

The tests  include antibody tests and antibody tests cannot confirm an infection. Exposure to the virus and infection are not the same.  How do you know the  test "often gives false results"?   You are confusing the multitude of newly released  antibody tests, with  the   active infection diagnostic tests. PCR molecular tests sourced from the western countries have been hitting 99%-100% accuracy. Yes, some of the antibody tests are unreliable, and many have not been quality  verified. The US and UK regulators permitted  the antibody  test distribution without verifying their accuracy. Taiwan and Canada and others will not use antibody tests until their national lab verifies their accuracy.

 

In many countries, the SOP is 2 diagnostic PCR tests on a hospitalized patient before pronouncing an infection is cleared, so the reliability is usually 100%. If a non hospitalized diagnosed patient  is isolataed for 14 days, a follow up diagnostic test is not done.

 

Testing on its own is useless. It is how the testing is used;

1. Testing in the absence of a case management plan is useless.

2. Not all tests are the same. It is not just reliability but the intent of the test.

3. Covid 19 has different  country characteristics. What worked in Australia  may not work in the USA or Spain etc.

 

Taiwan has one of the lowest testing rates of the advanced developed world, yet it has one of the lowest infection rates and is considered have the gold standard of pandemic management strategies. Taiwan relies on active infection identification.  Once a case is diagnosed it moves towards laying out a grid, tracking & tracing and isolating.  All potential  patients are  tested. Japan has a similar model but not the extent of tracing & tracking and only tests those with active symptoms. 

 

Reliance on diagnosis in a large enough sample size combined with tracking/tracing allows the infected and potential asymptomatics to be identifed.  Canada had an active infection testing model only without the tracking/tracing and it failed. As more testing capability was achieved, it adapted to targeted  testing along with tracking and tracing the testing of infected contacts.  The change in strategy has given a positive impact. It will soon  transition to wider sentinel and voluntary testing.   Countries without a consistent testing strategy and without a uniform type of test are associated with some of the  worst outcomes.  Examples are the UK and USA, although this has been changing as strategies developed.  The shortage of testing kits and capabilities has influenced testing activity. Some countries  limited testing because they did not have the  kits or lab facilities. That has changed in most western countries.

 

Antibody tests are not much help unless one is trying to lay out a grid. It identifies hot spots. South Korea employed this model and it worked for South Korea. It's Covid 19 epidemic characteristics were very different than that seen in  Australia, Sweden Canada etc.

 

 

 

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

No, that was a shocking story, a Covid19 patient discharged by an NHS hospital and sent to die at home.

 

But I also gave hard figures. The NHS itself says that out of 10 only 3 make it past the ventilator. Seven out of ten don't make it.

 

That's not anecdotal. Those are the actual figures.

 

Btw, the NHS assessment of that patient's survival chances was obviously flawed, as he did actually survive. No thanks to the NHS.

Yes, a story it was but there was only one side to it. I did not mention survival rates from ventilation - off you go again on another tangent.

 

Yes, the doctor's assessment may well have been flawed. Hardly surprising that some mistakes have been made considering the stress and fatigue that these medical people are having to handle.

[geriatrickid]

18 minutes ago, sead said:

Little effort to educate poorer people. What on earth are you talking about. i had to read it couple of times just to be sure i read it correctly. All immigrants in Sweden are getting paid school, free apartments and everything paid for. So please tell me you wrote something wrong in there.....

 

You have confused the social benefits  options with public health outreach. Educating at risk groups has nothing to do with the money given to them. Sweden  failed to communicate clearly to some high risk segments of its population. I am not the one who came to that conclusion. The Swedish government Health Agency did and it has since modified its outreach strategy. Multiple observers have reported on the situation too.  Go and express your outrage to them if you are offended. I list three of the typical articles below. 

 

The Swedish government strategy did not account for cultural differences and its initial strategy did not penetrate the ethnic communities. Printing pamphlets in a foreign language is only one measure. The message has to be adapted and their must be an outreach. The strategy has changed but the minimalist methods from the prior period are a factor in some of the community spread.   One can say that the  foreigners should adapt, but that is not the issue.  Unfortunately, such a strategy won't protect the rest of the population if they are infected.

 

If  someone cannot speak Swedish well and does not understand Swedish social practice, then  one had better make sure the person gets a message he can understand otherwise there will not be compliance with the  Swedish disease mitigation protocols. Communicating in multiple languages is a common practice in many countries like India, Canada, UK and even the USA. The USA made sure that it provided spanish language documentation and outreach workers to hard hit areas. The UK and Canada had Punjabi, Urdu and Mandarin language options from the start of the crisis. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti-lockdown-immigrants/

The government expects citizens to freely follow its advice—but not all ethnic groups have equal access to expertise. 

The country chose to lean on its high-trust culture and tradition of citizens independently following authorities’ recommendations. But there was one major overlooked problem with that approach—one that’s increasingly reflected in the country’s medical data: Sweden’s distinctive national culture and traditions, and the government’s efforts to amplify and support them, aren’t equally accessible to its increasingly diverse residents. The most segregated segments of the population are not as tuned in to the mainstream culture or to authorities’ messaging around the pandemic.

...... a general unwillingness among Swedish authorities to consider how cultural

........Sweden’s Civil Contingencies Agency, which is responsible for public safety and emergency management, has acknowledged that there were delays in translating information about the virus to other languages.

..........information needs to be not just directly translated but also conveyed in different ways to different groups.

 

https://www.thelocal.se/20200418/swedens-foreign-population-more-at-risk-of-the-coronavirus

People in Sweden with foreign backgrounds are disproportionately affected by the coronavirus, according to the country's Public Health Agency, raising fears that a "blind spot" is masking the spread of the coronavirus in some communities.

A distrust of authorities could also play a role, but the authorities' real "blind spot" was that immigrant communities sometimes have their own social networks, power hierarchies and authority figures. 

....... Swedish authorities strongly discouraged people from travelling at Easter, but failed to mention the risks of cramped housing or living with elderly relatives.

 

https://theunionjournal.com/swedens-unique-response-to-coronavirus-is-hurting-its-minority-communities/

This reports that despite  “an astonishing high rate” of fatalities amongst the Somali populace in late March' the Swedish government did not provide recommendations on the pandemic in the non-Swedish languages spoken by  a large number of people like the Somalis. The federal government’s activities did not take into account the social distinctions within a country whose migrant as well as asylum-seeker populations has grown."

This section  expresses a good point; "authorities’ typical presumptions concerning exactly how Swedes act as well as the absence of clear limitations have actually jumbled their message. “People that are living in the shadow society, in the immigrant areas, are very confused,” stated Nuri Kino, a reporter that belongs to Sweden’s area of Syriac Christians from the Middle East.

........The country is attempting to enhance its coronavirus response. Swedish authorities have boosted their outreach to minority communities,

 

 

 

 

[Stygge]

10 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Do people actually think the virus is going to go away? CV-19 is now part of the environment. Forever.

 

There are only three choices:

 

1) Lockdowns until a vaccine is developed, which could be anywhere from 1 year to forever (HIV is 40 years so far with no vaccine, the common cold is Oldavai Gorge to today and counting)

 

2) Periodic lockdowns, and sequestering of the most vulnerable, when there are mass outbreaks (there will be) so as not to swamp medical facilities

 

3) Hope 'herd immunity' exists and that CV-19 doesn't mutate too much to obviate any developed antibodies, in other words, the Swedish Model

 

A 'return to normal' means accepting that CV-19 is just one more thing added to the list of pathogens. Sweden is getting its dying out of the way; those nations who think they've escaped the worst of it will see their deaths come later, unless they remain locked down forever.

 

Mass testing and 'virus free certificates' are meaningless, as one is only as virus free as the most recent test without any subsequent human contact; remember that CV-19, unlike SARS and MERS, can be caught from folks showing no symptoms. More and more epidemiologists are admitting to this inconvenient truth. You test 'virus free', then pick it up from the cabbie on the way home. Your certificate is meaningless.

 

The current lockdowns were never meant to make the virus go away. They were imposed solely to slow the spread so that medical facilities would not be overrun, and so that the best possible treatment and attention could be given to each CV-19 patient as well as those suffering from all the other ailments to which people are normally prone. Virologists know everyone gets exposed eventually, but deaths can be minimized if the virus spread is done under somewhat controlled circumstances.

 

Only a willfully ignorant US President claims CV-19 will just "magically disappear".

Yess. I agree 100 %. Well put.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/2/2020 at 3:34 PM, geriatrickid said:

There is something very chilling about a society that  is willing to kill off its older population under the guise of the  "greater good". 

Good grief. Do you actually mean to tell us that the Swedish authorities made a decision to kill off the elderly? Certainly seems that way.

Isolate the at risk and allow those not at risk to carry on is the way, IMO.

 

Did the populations of any so called democratic country have an input to these decisions, or were they all imposed by a small number of people without legal authority? It's not like there wasn't time before lockdowns happened to have a parliamentary debate.

 

[yuyiinthesky]

3 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

The tests  include antibody tests and antibody tests cannot confirm an infection. Exposure to the virus and infection are not the same.  How do you know the  test "often gives false results"?   You are confusing the multitude of newly released  antibody tests, with  the   active infection diagnostic tests. 

You might not have understood that antibodies are the result of a previous infection. 
So if there are antibodies then there was an infection.

 

3 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Where does the 90% value come from? No one knows for sure since reported infections are a function of the number of  diagnostic tests. The current estimate is 80% and that is just an estimate not a definitive value. 

This is what the studies with antibody tests now show, the real number of infections has been magnitudes higher than the cases found with PCR tests. 

For that it does not matter much if the antibody test is 100% or only 90% accurate, it shows that there have been many more cases. In some areas apparently 20% and more of the population had been infected.

 

A magnitudes higher number of cases than counted with the PCR tests alone means a much higher number of the infected did not get sick. Probably even much more than 90%.

 

4 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

PCR molecular tests sourced from the western countries have been hitting 99%-100% accuracy.

 

Please provide a source for this number.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, Walker88 said:

There are only three choices:

 

1) Lockdowns until a vaccine is developed, which could be anywhere from 1 year to forever (HIV is 40 years so far with no vaccine, the common cold is Oldavai Gorge to today and counting)

 

2) Periodic lockdowns, and sequestering of the most vulnerable, when there are mass outbreaks (there will be) so as not to swamp medical facilities

 

3) Hope 'herd immunity' exists and that CV-19 doesn't mutate too much to obviate any developed antibodies, in other words, the Swedish Model

 

A 'return to normal' means accepting that CV-19 is just one more thing added to the list of pathogens. Sweden is getting its dying out of the way; those nations who think they've escaped the worst of it will see their deaths come later, unless they remain locked down forever.

I agree with all that.

Shame you let TDS get the better of you at the end of the long post. I did not include it in the quote I used.

Edited May 3, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[nausea]

4 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

You left out the most crucial of 

It all comes down to the genetic material we have  that gives each  human an almost unique immunological profile. With each shuffle of the our leukocyte alleles, a different combination of  the genetic code is created which can impart susceptibility or resistance to a disease or an infection. The classic example is malaria: Those who are prone to blood related genetic disorders like sickle cell anemia are less likely to become infected with malaria.  The condition may eventually kill the person, but it allows the person to minimize the risk of malaria.  In  the Inuit we see a different metabolism of fat. It made them more likely to survive the brutal cold and seasonal famines associated with living in the far north, but more susceptible to the heart disease and diabetes of the  western world. 

The sickle cell anemia thing fascinates me. It's a regressive gene, no? So having one parent with the gene is good, malaria wise, but if both parents have it then it's bad, you get sickle cell anemia at an early age. I always remember the pork-knockers' tradition from my trip to British Guyana, black guys gold prospecting in the jungle. I'm guessing the reason this became their thing was the innate resistance to malaria. As for the Inuit, I doubt, in such a brutal environment, heart disease and diabetes had time to kick in with any evolutionary effect, these are older people's problems.

 

I'm not sure weakening the genetic base is a good thing, like, as a kid I had everything going - measles, mumps, you name it. So, if I had kids it's likely they would inherit some of that resistance to disease. Anyway, so long as society continues sheltering us from genetic defects, no problem I suppose; but should SHTF, there will be such a reaping.

[cornishcarlos]

7 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

People don't like long posts, so before we dispose of your entire post, we are going to pull out the most pathetic part and let people judge for themselves. We shall show that your entry is a demonstration of a psychotic episode,

 

Some people like long posts and don't you mean "I" instead of "we" ? Unless you have some co writers working with you !!

[Logosone]

7 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

 

The USA made sure that it provided spanish language documentation and outreach workers to hard hit areas. The UK and Canada had Punjabi, Urdu and Mandarin language options from the start of the crisis. 

 

Thank God, and as we saw clearly that was so crucial and ensured the social distancing was 100% complied with, resulting, as we saw, in extremely successful containment of the pandemic. Lol.

 

Is that why the US and UK's mortality figures are so much better than Sweden's?

 

It's a good thing nobody is spamming the thread with long posts though. You know because people don't like it. Very considerate of you.

[MikeyIdea]

8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Good grief. Do you actually mean to tell us that the Swedish authorities made a decision to kill off the elderly? Certainly seems that way.

Isolate the at risk and allow those not at risk to carry on is the way, IMO.

 

Did the populations of any so called democratic country have an input to these decisions, or were they all imposed by a small number of people without legal authority? It's not like there wasn't time before lockdowns happened to have a parliamentary debate.

 

There has been no open discussion about it from politicians, county or health officials, health care workers talk about it. It is a fact that the Swedish authorities are protecting the curve by not moving elderly from retirement homes to hospitals. Swedish media reported one close relative who had to threaten the retirement home with going to the press because they wouldn't give out what medication the elderly got before she finally was informed that it was the standard "end of life" morphine drip. The patient was moved to ICU and is recovering. 

 

Swedish media is now reporting that county health officials "mörkar" ´darken, say that they don't have information about the spread of the virus, then it's proven that they do. Perhaps we will see a bit more transparency now, but not that much. The Swedish solidarity works in more than one way.

 

Swedes don't "rage" unfortunately, not since they were vikings anyway ????

 

[yuyiinthesky]

21 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

Swedes don't "rage" unfortunately, not since they were vikings anyway ????

 

One of the reasons why Sweden is such a nice place to live - may be except of the long and dark winters.

Edited May 4, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[geriatrickid]

8 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

You might not have understood that antibodies are the result of a previous infection. 
So if there are antibodies then there was an infection.

 

This is what the studies with antibody tests now show, the real number of infections has been magnitudes higher than the cases found with PCR tests. 

For that it does not matter much if the antibody test is 100% or only 90% accurate, it shows that there have been many more cases. In some areas apparently 20% and more of the population had been infected.

 

A magnitudes higher number of cases than counted with the PCR tests alone means a much higher number of the infected did not get sick. Probably even much more than 90%.

 

 

Please provide a source for this number.

 

I understand the relationship of active  (acute) infection and antibodies. However, exposure to a virus or infection itself does not always result in detectable antibodies.  I know this is probably difficult for you to grasp,  but this is not unusual.   Covid19 infections do not always result in detectable antibodies.  Yes, I know, the Mengele brigade will say I made a false statement, so  go tell   Aojie Wang, Mei Liu, Qimin Wang, Jun Chen, Shuai Xia, Yun Ling, Yuling  Zhang, Jingna Xun, Lu Lu, Shibo Jiang, Hongzhou Lu, Yumei Wen, Jinghe Huang from the  Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and Key Laboratory of Medical Molecular Virology (MOE/NHC/CAMS), School of Basic Medical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China their findings are false ok?

The found in a statistically significant number of patients that;SARS-CoV-2 NAbs were unable to cross-react with SARS-CoV virus.  Antibodies were more likely to be found in  middle aged and older patients.  Younger patients were the ones who did not have detectable antibodies.   And now you know part of the reason why some people do not present with symptoms.  However, according to some self proclaimed experts on here, these results must be false........

 

Covid19 antibody tests are not a substitute for reliable acute  infection  testing. You  do not understand the different purposes of the tests. There still isn't a uniform antibody test.

 

It is rather hypocritical that you demand I provide a source for  the reliability of the PCR tests and yet you are tossing out numbers, that seem to be pulled from your rectum. The reliability data  is taken from the FIND report that has compared 300 diagnostic tests. FIND is a WHO Collaborating Centre for Laboratory Strengthening and Diagnostic Technology Evaluation. It has a lovely  comparative online tool that is regularly updated  It shows which PCR test kits and devices are unreliable and which ones are. The tools used by some countries like Australia or Canada have returned full confidence results. (When there is a misdiagnosis with the  approved PCR  test, it is a human error, not the fault of the testing apparatus.)  

 

[geriatrickid]

7 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Some people like long posts and don't you mean "I" instead of "we" ? Unless you have some co writers working with you !!

I am getting some additional input.   ????