Chula virologist says discipline keeping Thais safe as global contagion rages

By The Nation

 

 

At the current infection rate of one million new cases every 12 days, global Covid-19 cases will hit the 4 million milestone this Sunday (May 10), according Dr Yong Poovorawan, a virologist at Chulalongkorn University.

 

However, the general rate of global infections is falling and will continue to decline if controls are maintained, he said.

 

The greatest concern now is over a possible resurgence of the disease in the developing world – especially South America, Africa and India – where there will be a huge number of unreported cases, he added.

 

In New York City, serology studies show a 20 percent rate of Covid-19 infection, indicating that only one in 10 patients report an infection, Dr Yong explained. Like many other places, especially in Europe, the number of reported cases will be much lower than actual infections because most patients stay at home until their symptoms get so bad they have to be admitted to hospital. So many Covid-19 infections are never diagnosed.

 

Thailand has been fortunate since most infected people have received good treatment in hospital rather than suffering at home, he said.

 

The number of coronavirus-related deaths in Thailand is far lower than in Western countries, he added.

 

In the United States, up to 6 percent of Covid-19 cases have died. The coronavirus death toll in the US has now surpassed the number of Americans killed during the Vietnam war.

 

Thailand’s current mortality rate, at 1.8 percent, is much lower than in Western countries because of strong public cooperation with official health directives, said Yong.

 

Turning to the economic impact of the virus, he said the important thing now was to achieve a balance that ensured every Thai had sufficient resources to thrive. Thailand is rich in food, which should be shared with patients who had no family or other support beyond the public health system, he said.

 

Dr Yong predicted it would take another year before medicines and a vaccine to eradicate Covid-19 were available, allowing us all to return to normal life.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387441

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-05-07

 

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Thais & discipline ????

in the same sentence?

 

I got to lay down  

I'd love to have the number of actual tests being done on a daily basis nationwide.

"Thailand’s current mortality rate, at 1.8 percent, is much lower than in Western countries because of strong public cooperation with official health directives" said Yong with a twinkle in his eye and his tongue firmly in cheek.

Yep, see a lot of Thai discipline in the shopping malls and daily markets. The good doctor should get out of his air conditioned office and observe reality.

Personally, I believe there's a combination of environmental, physical and biological factors protecting Thais from the worst effects of coronavirus. Probably a few dozen Ph.D theses waiting in the wings.

 

 

Discipline.......of thought, discussion and dissemination of information.

 

Maintained by the Computer Crimes Act and the Emergency Decree.

 

The people hear, see and speak no evil.

 

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Personally, I believe there's a combination of environmental, physical and biological factors protecting Thais from the worst effects of coronavirus.

The average age of the Thai population is much lower than that in Italy or Spain; rates of obesity and diabetes are low; most Thai people live outdoors to a large extent; the weather is hot; Thais absorb abundant Vitamin D; population density is relatively low; Thais mostly don't take public transport.

It's likely the infection rate in Thailand was was very high in December-February, but went unnoticed because they got an earlier strain.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2.full.pdf

 

 

You can categorize that under "dumb luck", nothing to do with Thailand's fumbling early efforts.

4 hours ago, OnTheGround said:

Thais & discipline ????

in the same sentence?

Yes a bit of an oxymoron isn't it........along with honest police & helpful Immigration officials.......................

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

It's likely the infection rate in Thailand was was very high in December-February, but went unnoticed because they got an earlier strain.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v2.full.pdf

 

 

You can categorize that under "dumb luck", nothing to do with Thailand's fumbling early efforts.

For non-specialists,  some discussion of this study:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/07/us/07reuters-health-coronavirus-evolution-explainer.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/health/coronavirus-mutation-transmission.html

Crikey, this guy again.

 

Discipline is one thing but I really do doubt the government data, and I think the proposal that TL has been afflited by an earlie, and less virulent strain has legs. I doubt the government would agree though, everyone knows that Thais have a uniquely gifted and effective government...

 

 

2 hours ago, uhuh said:

You can categorize that under "dumb luck", nothing to do with Thailand's fumbling early efforts.

Shhh!!! Dont spoil the spell...

16 hours ago, webfact said:

Chula virologist says discipline keeping Thais safe

 

Hopefully this will turn out to be a success story.

 

Still…it would be interesting to compare the accurate number of people officially reported as infected with a true and accurate number of complete tests actually performed. As one way to keep infection rates statistically low might be to submit only a small number of people to complete testing. No real test = no real positives.

 

Factor in that the government regularly shows great creativity with numbers, and is compulsively…economical…with the truth, and you’re left wondering.

 

 

If wearing masks is the best way to stop infection, then Thailand is right up there with the top countries in the world for preventing spread. Like it or not, once you go outside just about everyone is wearing masks. It makes a huge difference in stopping the disease. 

People like this spoil the good reputation of Chula.

"Thailand has been fortunate since most infected people have received good treatment in hospital rather than suffering at home, he said."

 

To say this with honesty, one would have to know the infection rate which we don't since there hasn't been adequate testing. 

I have noticed that the Thais did seem to be afraid of corona from very early on.  The BTS train would be full of people wearing masks.  

 

By contrast what I gather from news coverage of the US is that Americans, with their deep belief in their own exceptionalism, never expected to be overwhelmed by a pandemic.  The governor of Mississipi when asked why he had not issued a shelter-at-home order after the virus took off in China, replied, "MIssissipi isn't China."  Well, it soon will be, Governor.

 

In addition to a general awareness of risk, Thailand has several other advantages.  The public health bureacracy is competent.  That includes a volunteer force operating in every village in the countryside to spread information and encourage good practices in all areas of public health, certainly including the current pandemic.  Thailand also has a universal healthcare system, which Europe also has, but the US does not.  There are not many nursing homes in Thailand so that the most vulnerable population is not concentrated into dense facilities, like the US.

 

We know that Thailand has been doing contact tracing and monitored the quarantine of arriving passengers into the country until those flights were stopped altogether.  The US never implemented any of these measures.

 

So, while it's hard to get a detailed picture of exactly how the Thai public health service has managed the crisis, it certainly looks as though they have done a good job.  There may also be other environmental advantages.

4 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

I have noticed that the Thais did seem to be afraid of corona from very early on.  The BTS train would be full of people wearing masks.  

 

By contrast what I gather from news coverage of the US is that Americans, with their deep belief in their own exceptionalism, never expected to be overwhelmed by a pandemic.  The governor of Mississipi when asked why he had not issued a shelter-at-home order after the virus took off in China, replied, "MIssissipi isn't China."  Well, it soon will be, Governor.

 

In addition to a general awareness of risk, Thailand has several other advantages.  The public health bureacracy is competent.  That includes a volunteer force operating in every village in the countryside to spread information and encourage good practices in all areas of public health, certainly including the current pandemic.  Thailand also has a universal healthcare system, which Europe also has, but the US does not.  There are not many nursing homes in Thailand so that the most vulnerable population is not concentrated into dense facilities, like the US.

 

We know that Thailand has been doing contact tracing and monitored the quarantine of arriving passengers into the country until those flights were stopped altogether.  The US never implemented any of these measures.

 

So, while it's hard to get a detailed picture of exactly how the Thai public health service has managed the crisis, it certainly looks as though they have done a good job.  There may also be other environmental advantages.

I agree that the lack of nursing homes could be a big factor in the difference of the impact of the infections here versus the West. When I have communicated with my former colleagues at the hospital in the U.S. where I worked for five years, they said most of their severe patients were from nursing homes. 

 

Though I agree that mask-wearing was established here already and ramped up better than in the West, my take on the impact of that is that other factors make it more likely that infections spread here versus in the West. Things that come to mind are more use of public transportation here (non-existent in the U.S.) and closely packed together, eating out of common dishes and using your own spoon to put food on other people's places while sitting closely together, more nose picking, and coughing and sneezing openly without covering your mouth. I also doubt that study done a couple weeks ago about the percentage of Thai people washing their hands. 

 

The contact tracing effect seems limited by the actual very limited testing.

 

Also, while Thailand did eventually impose some fairly stringent measures to limit people coming into the country, people were coming here from all over (including China) for months after the supposed start of all of this (November or early December). Seems like maybe Thailand got a less deadly strain. It really would be interesting if they were to do a valid sampling of the population so we could see that the infection rate really is. Perhaps we are all already infected and we could just all relax (though keep the borders closed until we know what might come here from elsewhere with all the mutations). 

Is it possible that Thai's can apply this newfound discipline to controlling air pollution and making the roads safer?  ????.  That would probably save far more lives in the long run.

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Chula virologist says discipline keeping Thais safe as global contagion rages

We saw the perfect example of Thai discipline Sunday morning at the supermarkets.

Would that be the same discipline displayed daily on roads throughout Thailand?

Wearing masks has certainly helped and all countries should have been using them since the off. However, the heat/humidity factor has also helped, I reckon. This virus doesn't like these conditions and it's not just Thailand that has dodged the bullet on this either. Plenty of countries with worse healthcare systems than Thailand have not reported huge death numbers either and it's hard to next to impossible these days to sweep mountains of bodies under the carpet in countries not at war, so it's difficult to see what saved them other than luck and the weather (you could talk about population age, obesity or diet but speculative at best) ... unless the strengths of the different strains of the virus really are that wide. All the cold climate countries though have taken a pasting.

1 hour ago, JungleBiker said:

People like this spoil the good reputation of Chula.

At least Chula has Prayut's wife, English professor, to restore that reputation as the 176th best University in Asia and top 1000 in the world (between 801-1000). 

2 hours ago, JungleBiker said:

People like this spoil the good reputation of Chula.

They do indeed. Better to say nothing and be thought a fool, than to open your gob and remove all doubt...

1 hour ago, phkauf said:

At least Chula has Prayut's wife, English professor, to restore that reputation as the 176th best University in Asia and top 1000 in the world (between 801-1000). 

Yes, I remember those numbers. Impressive huh? Odd how they keep beating the world to inventing vaccines though. Perhaps they're telling porkies? Nah...

To much BLA...BLA...

How can you really believe this...

Fortunate things seems to get better...

Why? I guess nobody really knows for sure yet... 

Maybe the Thais having stronger antibody reactions...

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

I have noticed that the Thais did seem to be afraid of corona from very early on.  The BTS train would be full of people wearing masks.  

 

By contrast what I gather from news coverage of the US is that Americans, with their deep belief in their own exceptionalism, never expected to be overwhelmed by a pandemic.  The governor of Mississipi when asked why he had not issued a shelter-at-home order after the virus took off in China, replied, "MIssissipi isn't China."  Well, it soon will be, Governor.

Try to explain to Chinese people, from HK, China or Taiwan, that Westerners do not want to stop a deadly plague by such a cheap and simple act as wearing a mask. Incomprehensible Westerners. 

Aren't they afraid? 

 

But if I tell Asians how many Western friends told me old people should die,  so they can visit the pub again (someone wrote in the FT he wants to visit not the pub, but the Grand Prix) - Asians just cannot believe this. 

Don't Thai me Dr Yong Poovorawan

3 hours ago, TEFLKrabi said:

If wearing masks is the best way to stop infection, then Thailand is right up there with the top countries in the world for preventing spread. Like it or not, once you go outside just about everyone is wearing masks. It makes a huge difference in stopping the disease. 

Social distancing and washing hands are no doubt helpful, but for me, reducing the volume of the virus escaping at source - the mouth - seems logical. 

Heat, humidity, different social norms (no handshakes or hugs etc) and a very high level of mask wearing is what I would say has contributed.

 

In terms of discipline with regards to social distancing, that has been completely non - existent.