Do the numbers equate to locking down the whole world?

[steelepulse]

Total population of the world is 7,800,000,000 and there are currently 300,000 deaths.  Let's pick a high multiple and assume 10X more people will die "from covid".  This would make a total of 3 million deaths out of 7.8 billion, or .0003846, or .038% of the population.

 

Total population of the US is 331,000,000 and there are currently 80,000 deaths.  Again, let's say there will be 10X more deaths, so 800,000 total.    This is .0024, or .24% of the population.

 

Does this make sense to lock down the whole world?

 

How do these numbers compare with other preventable causes of death such as smoking, diabetes, car accidents, cardio vascular disease etc.?

--Lung cancer ( smoking as the great majority) 1.76 million per WHO website.
--Road deaths 1.25 million in 2013 according to WHO, so that number is up due to population increase.
--Diabetes 4.2 million in 2019 according to international diabetes federation.  Diabetes can be controlled through proper diet and exercise for the vast majority of the population.
--Heart attack and stroke  17.9 million in 2016.  According to the WHO "Most cardiovascular diseases can be prevented by addressing behavioural risk factors such as tobacco use, unhealthy diet and obesity, physical inactivity and harmful use of alcohol using population-wide strategies."

 

[scubascuba3]

I'd like to see the death count caused by lockdowns and other measures, such as suicides, people who don't get treatment at hospitals for cancer, strokes, plus future deaths because countries can no longer afford sufficient healthcare. Probably higher than the virus itself

[bkk6060]

Certainly frustration is setting in for many.

Los Angeles just announced 3 more months of stay at home.

People are starting to have mental issues with being home, losing jobs, no money, no life.

 

I would have not before, but am slowly starting to agree with some of your comments.

There seems no end to any of it.

[tribalfusion001]

No.

[KarenBravo]

Depends if your loved ones are in the death count.

[UbonThani]

10x is not accurate

Sweden proves that. Their deaths in line with annual flu.

 

300k could go to 400k or 500k. Maybe 600k.

 

Maybe not.

 

Swine 575k.

 

Lockdowns eco disaster for what? Not much.

[UbonThani]

3 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Depends if your loved ones are in the death count.

Loved ones die of flus

[KarenBravo]

10 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Loved ones die of flus

Except COVID-19 is 30 to 40 times more deadly and even more for seasonal flu and a lot more transmissible.

 

"Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care".

Edited May 14, 2020 by KarenBravo

[Mama Noodle]

17 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Depends if your loved ones are in the death count.

 

Also depends on if you're getting ruined financially, which I would bet 1k baht that people who make snide comments like this don't have to worry about money - at least not yet. 

[KarenBravo]

1 minute ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Also depends on if you're getting ruined financially, which I would bet 1k baht that people who make snide comments like this don't have to worry about money - at least not yet. 

Ask any one of your friends which they would choose.......their money, or, their parents.

[Mama Noodle]

5 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Except COVID-19 is 30 to 40 times more deadly

It's generally accepted right now that it's about 10 times more deadly than the flu, not 30 - 40 times more deadly. 

 

 

[Mama Noodle]

Just now, KarenBravo said:

Ask any one of your friends which they would choose.......their money, or, their parents.

 

Lmao, this isn't the black plague quit being hysterical. 

 

Im sure you dont have to worry much about it now, but you better hope things start getting better, and your pension doesn't take a hit followed by heavy inflation. 

[johng]

1 hour ago, steelepulse said:

Does this make sense to lock down the whole world?

No,  makes no sense unless the reason is to achieve "something else"

[KarenBravo]

5 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

It's generally accepted right now that it's about 10 times more deadly than the flu, not 30 - 40 times more deadly. 

 

 

Nope. More than that. Also, don't forget that it if it is more transmissible (which it is), then there will be more deaths. I don't now where it is "generally accepted", but, it certainly isn't by the scientific community.

 

Scroll down to death rate. Lots of other links. You should take a look.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

[KarenBravo]

11 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Lmao, this isn't the black plague quit being hysterical. 

 

Im sure you dont have to worry much about it now, but you better hope things start getting better, and your pension doesn't take a hit followed by heavy inflation. 

I don't receive a pension and never will.

Doubt very much that inflation will raise it's head. The USA is now talking about negative interest rates.

As a saver, I've been shafted for nearly three decades......I can take a bit more.

[Mama Noodle]

6 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Nope. More than that.

 

Show me a quote from a legitimate scientific community consensus that states that virus is 30 to 40 times more deadly than the flu and Ill gladly eat crow. 

 

 

[Mama Noodle]

4 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

I don't receive a pension and never will.

Doubt very much that inflation will raise it's head. The USA is now talking about negative interest rates.

As a saver, I've been shafted for nearly three decades......I can take a bit more.

 

End of the day, whatever the position you are in, you clearly have no fear of losing income or going bust so to me you don't have skin in the game. 

 

You can take all the shaft you want, doesn't mean the rest of us have to.

[NotYourBusiness]

15 minutes ago, johng said:

No,  makes no sense unless the reason is to achieve "something else"

The longer this goes on, the more people start to wake up. This was never about a virus. Anyone thinking this will be a "V" recovery will be incredibly disappointed. The danger of course is that if everything opens and the economy is in depression, Trump would lose the election. He has a much better chance to win by delaying any opening until after the election. Then he can blame the economy on the shutdown. Ignore what he says to the contrary.

[KarenBravo]

2 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

End of the day, whatever the position you are in, you clearly have no fear of losing income or going bust so to me you don't have skin in the game. 

 

You can take all the shaft you want, doesn't mean the rest of us have to.

I can assure you that I would choose my parents (if they were alive) over money. Can you say the same thing?

[Mama Noodle]

3 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

I can assure you that I would choose my parents (if they were alive) over money. Can you say the same thing?

 

If the choice was as stupidly binary as you are proposing, of course id choose my parents. 

[tlock]

5 minutes ago, NotYourBusiness said:

The longer this goes on, the more people start to wake up. This was never about a virus. Anyone thinking this will be a "V" recovery will be incredibly disappointed. The danger of course is that if everything opens and the economy is in depression, Trump would lose the election. He has a much better chance to win by delaying any opening until after the election. Then he can blame the economy on the shutdown. Ignore what he says to the contrary.

 

The emperor wears no clothes.

 

My perception is that the economy is suffering because of the shutdowns, and Trump has positioned himself as "relatively" anti-lockdown compared to the Democrats, so I expect the election to be close.  Both sides will try to blame each other for nature, heh.

 

[tribalfusion001]

7 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

I can assure you that I would choose my parents (if they were alive) over money. Can you say the same thing?

And then you all die of starvation because you have no money, this is what will happen in poorer countries without government welfare.

Edited May 14, 2020 by tribalfusion001

[KarenBravo]

2 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

And then you all die of starvation because you have no money, this is what will happen in poorer countries without government welfare.

Can't have that. In the USA government welfare = socialism = communism.

They kind of ignore that the Nordic countries which have the best standard of living in the world are all socialist.

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

thing is that this virus moved fast, and no way to tell where it will stop.

the only way to stop was and still is the lockdown.

without the lockdown is could spread , theoretically, endlessly

and kill even half the world population.

even without the lockdown the world economy would come to a halt, as

so many people will not go to work because they will have to look

after their loved ones or will have troubles (teachers died and parents

need to look after the children).

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

2 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

the Nordic countries which have the best standard of living in the world are all socialist.

the nordic countries do not have the best standards of life (well maybe according to their

standards) and anyway they would not been able to pay their bills if not for the

capitalistic countries that they do business with.

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

1 hour ago, papa al said:

10 million died of starvation last year.

Next year 200 million

Screwed, blued & tattooed.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

starvation is not infecting

[KarenBravo]

27 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Show me a quote from a legitimate scientific community consensus that states that virus is 30 to 40 times more deadly than the flu and Ill gladly eat crow. 

 

 

Here you go.

Last sub-paragraph under the paragraph "How are COVID19 and flu viruses different. You might need your calculator.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza?gclid=Cj0KCQjw2PP1BRCiARIsAEqv-pTvsBZ8IWI0KHAe-3gjl4TWfguAbnROdDRxwedf0DrXLn7UW4SVef8aAv0rEALw_wcB

[KarenBravo]

1 minute ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

the nordic countries do not have the best standards of life (well maybe according to their

standards) and anyway they would not been able to pay their bills if not for the

capitalistic countries that they do business with.

Rubbish. It's due to their high tax rates.

[brokenbone]

8 minutes ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

thing is that this virus moved fast, and no way to tell where it will stop.

the only way to stop was and still is the lockdown.

without the lockdown is could spread , theoretically, endlessly

and kill even half the world population.

even without the lockdown the world economy would come to a halt, as

so many people will not go to work because they will have to look

after their loved ones or will have troubles (teachers died and parents

need to look after the children).

no, there is no theoretical ground for stating it could wipe out half the world

[Mama Noodle]

3 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Here you go.

Last sub-paragraph under the paragraph "How are COVID19 and flu viruses different. You might need your calculator.

All you have to do is show me a quote and you seem to have a real hard time showing me a quote that says it’s 30-40 times more deadly than the flu.