Put safety before money - academic warns about opening country too quickly to "infected" foreigners

[Silent Number]

54 minutes ago, TheRealRobin said:

"The academics said...." red flag number 1!

 

There seems to be a lot of evidence that suggest that most people in affected cities fall in one of the following categories. 1) Had it, were a-symptomatic and recovered 2) Had it, felt sick for a week or two and recovered and most likely immune now or 3) Got infected, had some underlying condition and did not survive.

 

I think most countries over-reacted and focused on the wrong stuff. Resources should be directed to quarantining the weak and elderly, and educate the larger population about preventative measures. Humans for the most part are able to fight off viruses like this. Getting people scared causes exactly what we want to prevent, namely everyone with a cough running to a hospital, and in the process over-burden the health system and get exposed to people that are really infected. 

 

Now that theres a lot of data available, the virus seems to be not that much worse than the flu, and certainly much less dangerous than many of the things we do as part of our daily lives. It would be interesting to know how many people died as a result of the measures we took to stop the spread.

 

 

Get real ...data available ..not much worse than flu... data>>> 2019-2019 flu deaths 34,200 so far Coronavirus 19  360,000 get a grip man

[Patts]

12 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Show me the statistics of all those healthy people between 20 and 40 who died of Covid. 

You won't because those cases are very very rare.

The death rate start to be significant for those over 65 years old with multiple comorbidities.

People who are that scared should just stay home and let others live their lives.

AS I said before "If you spend time to research", that means you do your own research. Yes the number of comparative deaths in the 20 to 40 age range has been far less then those above 45 they still happen to healthy individuals, one was even a personal trainer! There have been children that have died from this too, very rarely, but it happens. 

 

Yes, the younger you are and healthier the lower the risk, but there still is a risk that your body reacts badly to the disease and you don't make it through or even more worrying is you do survive and are left have kidney dialysis for the rest of your life. 

 

https://elemental.medium.com/its-not-just-sick-old-people-who-die-from-covid-19-bc9251989bc8

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, Don Mega said:

 

So those harping on about "the real figures including those not tested" are basically wasting their breath then.

Pretty much they are yes.. I guess we can make a fairly reasonable assumption that the figures collated globally so far say around 1%, probably about as accurate as it is going to get. Don't think it really matters that much, whether it 0.7 or 1.2 the lockdown will still exist until the infection rate falls to a low, consistent level or an effective vaccine is readily available. We are all waiting, the question is how long can we all go on like this before people begin to live on the streets starving to death. 

[GAZZPA]

1 minute ago, Patts said:

AS I said before "If you spend time to research", that means you do your own research. Yes the number of comparative deaths in the 20 to 40 age range has been far less then those above 45 they still happen to healthy individuals, one was even a personal trainer! There have been children that have died from this too, very rarely, but it happens. 

 

Yes, the younger you are and healthier the lower the risk, but there still is a risk that your body reacts badly to the disease and you don't make it through or even more worrying is you do survive and are left have kidney dialysis for the rest of your life. 

 

https://elemental.medium.com/its-not-just-sick-old-people-who-die-from-covid-19-bc9251989bc8

I thought everybody is aware of this by now. The older people and people with underlying conditions are at much higher risk then the younger and healthier people. Pretty clear to me so must be to everybody else by now. Of course it doesn't mean younger people are immune, it's still a risk but less so... Simple stuff to understand really.

 

[Anton9]

4 minutes ago, Patts said:

AS I said before "If you spend time to research", that means you do your own research. Yes the number of comparative deaths in the 20 to 40 age range has been far less then those above 45 they still happen to healthy individuals, one was even a personal trainer! There have been children that have died from this too, very rarely, but it happens. 

 

Yes, the younger you are and healthier the lower the risk, but there still is a risk that your body reacts badly to the disease and you don't make it through or even more worrying is you do survive and are left have kidney dialysis for the rest of your life. 

 

https://elemental.medium.com/its-not-just-sick-old-people-who-die-from-covid-19-bc9251989bc8

I did my own research that's why I know this thing it's vastly overblown.

There have been even young people who died of Flu,Viral Pneumonia, Tuberculosis and other diseases but they were rare events and we never locked ourselves at home for months before.

 

[BernieOnTour]

43 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

One thing that links all these countries is that they all have flag waving, nationalist, populists, in charge, and have all proved to be utterly useless at containing the virus. Strange coincidence that. 

@Patts :

You are not getting his point :

 

He has just found out, the SARS-Cov2 is even more dangerous, than we thought!

It has mutated now to an intelligent form of life, which is already able to differentiate between political „correctness“ and nationalists/populists, when crossing borders ! 555

 

And maybe, SARS-Cov2 had even already some intelligence in the beginning, as it started in the country with the most flag waving, nationalist, populist and suppressive guys in charge: the Communist Party of China...

Edited May 29, 2020 by BernieOnTour

[GAZZPA]

42 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Trouble is US and UK are two of the most high risk countries (Along with Brazil and Russia) in the world right now. The virus is not choosy who your parents are/were. 

One thing that links all these countries is that they all have flag waving, nationalist, populists, in charge, and have all proved to be utterly useless at containing the virus. Strange coincidence that. 

Sounds like the rantings of a class warrior to me with little or no understanding of the measures that said countries have taken. Most towns and cities across both countries are like ghost towns right now.. What would you have done differently from them in order to avoid your accusations? Bet you don't know, it's just an opportunity for you to wave your own "power to the people" flag. Feel free to prove me wrong.

[Silent Number]

For all you expert wannabe health officials out there saying this is no worse than normal flu ...Last year less than 1% of flu cases resulted in death this virus has a mortality rate of 3.4% so far.

[GAZZPA]

7 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

I did my own research that's why I know this thing it's vastly overblown.

There have been even young people who died of Flu,Viral Pneumonia, Tuberculosis and other diseases but they were rare events and we never locked ourselves at home for months before.

 

Cannot compare. We have a vaccine for tuberculosis, vaccine for common flu, viral pnuemonia is rare and generally very mild, bacterial pnuemonia is treated with antibiotics. This is a virus that can be fatal for about 1% of the population with no vaccine or known effective treatment. 

[GAZZPA]

7 minutes ago, Silent Number said:

For all you expert wannabe health officials out there saying this is no worse than normal flu ...Last year less than 1% of flu cases resulted in death this virus has a mortality rate of 3.4% so far.

I don't belong to the camp claiming it's no worse then flu but I do believe that the figure is closer to 1%, at least that's the reasonable estimation. 

[Patts]

21 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

I did my own research that's why I know this thing it's vastly overblown.

There have been even young people who died of Flu,Viral Pneumonia, Tuberculosis and other diseases but they were rare events and we never locked ourselves at home for months before.

 

You haven't been researching medical journals if that's your opinion. The average mortality rate of seasonal flu is 0.1% and those people are nearly always the elderly. The Average global mortality rate of Covid from currently available data is between 3.5%...........35 times higher than seasonal flu. Sure some people say that many more people have Covid then has been reported so the mortality could be as low as 0.5 to 1% but even then it's 5 to 10 times higher than flu. 

 

Deaths of people hospitalised with Covid19, under the age of 40 is 0.75%

in age range 40 to 50 it's 1% 

and for those 50 to 59 it's 5%

 

The mortality rate for flu is nothing close to this

Edited May 29, 2020 by Patts

[Billy Bloggs]

They do realise that returning Thai nationals caused most of the problems dont they, they didnt self isolate and the quarantine hasnt been well done either.

Plus academics in their positions dont care that people all over are starving.

[Letseng]

9 hours ago, ezzra said:

I wonder if foreigners money also "infected"? without tourism money this country will go back to be what it used to be 100 years ago, poor and backward country, it is a shame that in thees days and age we still have to listen to this kind of racist garbage...

Just like many countries in Europe. 

[GAZZPA]

1 minute ago, Billy Bloggs said:

They do realise that returning Thai nationals caused most of the problems dont they, they didnt self isolate and the quarantine hasnt been well done either.

Plus academics in their positions dont care that people all over are starving.

Serious question, i am not in Thailand at the moment. Has it actually reached the point where people are starving? Obviously there are millions of low income families in Thailand without assistance and probably without income so not completely unaware but I don't really know the situation there.

 

[GAZZPA]

3 minutes ago, Letseng said:

Just like many countries in Europe. 

what is?

[GAZZPA]

10 hours ago, totally thaied up said:

If they are getting a few cases each plane load they are bringing returning Thai Nationals back in, I would hate to see if they opened up borders to the US, UK etc, etc as the virus certainly is not under control in many places yet. Cases will slip through the cracks for certain and we will be back at step one all over again. I agree, slowly you need to do it.

the virus is getting under control in Europe, just look at the data. The countries who are suffering now are Russia, Brazil and Peru. In short South America is likely to become the new hotspot. Italy, Spain, UK, France and Germany have it well under control.

[Anton9]

22 minutes ago, Patts said:

You haven't been researching medical journals if that's your opinion. The average mortality rate of seasonal flu is 0.1% and those people are nearly always the elderly. The Average global mortality rate of Covid from currently available data is between 3.5%...........35 times higher than seasonal flu. Sure some people say that many more people have Covid then has been reported so the mortality could be as low as 0.5 to 1% but even then it's 5 to 10 times higher than flu. 

 

Deaths of people hospitalised with Covid19, under the age of 40 is 0.75%

in age range 40 to 50 it's 1% 

and for those 50 to 59 it's 5%

 

The mortality rate for flu is nothing close to this

You just reported the death rate of those hospitalised, who are a very small percentage of all the infected.

[Silent Number]

21 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

I don't belong to the camp claiming it's no worse then flu but I do believe that the figure is closer to 1%, at least that's the reasonable estimation. 

W.H.O director-general briefing March 3rd 2020 Coronavirus 19 .....seasonal flu usually results in fewer than 1% deaths globally Covid 19 has resulted in 3.4% deaths his words

[GAZZPA]

19 minutes ago, Silent Number said:

W.H.O director-general briefing March 3rd 2020 Coronavirus 19 .....seasonal flu usually results in fewer than 1% deaths globally Covid 19 has resulted in 3.4% deaths his words

Ok, I get that but from what I read it said we can only tell the true rate when we test everyone because the vast majority of infected have not been tested and developed mild or no symptoms requiring no treatment. Therefore the estimation is approximately 1%. I hope the later is correct because 3.4% is very high.

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, Patts said:

As most countries implemented virus control measures that were just as strict as any other country what would you have done that would have lead to a wildly better outcome?

They didn't. The variation in counties reaction was huge. US and UK were way behind the game for a start.

58 minutes ago, BernieOnTour said:

@Patts :

You are not getting his point :

 

He has just found out, the SARS-Cov2 is even more dangerous, than we thought!

It has mutated now to an intelligent form of life, which is already able to differentiate between political „correctness“ and nationalists/populists, when crossing borders ! 555

 

And maybe, SARS-Cov2 had even already some intelligence in the beginning, as it started in the country with the most flag waving, nationalist, populist and suppressive guys in charge: the Communist Party of China...

Ho ho, very witty. Nothing to do with the virus, just the political leaders. Sweden went down the herd immunity road, infections way up now.

53 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

Sounds like the rantings of a class warrior to me with little or no understanding of the measures that said countries have taken. Most towns and cities across both countries are like ghost towns right now.. What would you have done differently from them in order to avoid your accusations? Bet you don't know, it's just an opportunity for you to wave your own "power to the people" flag. Feel free to prove me wrong.

Desperately sad, please at least read what I said properly. Nowhere did I mention class (Obviously your own obsession). I have never raised a power to the people flag in my life, although in a Democracy that is of course where the power should ultimately lie.  The different responses by different governments to the Covid crisis have been exhaustively documented. The best governments like Iceland & NZ for just two examples have set a standard anyone would want to follow. I merely commented that certain rather similar leaders have behaved in rather similar ways, with tragically similar outcomes. Live with it, or pretend it isn't true, your choice.

[GAZZPA]

4 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

They didn't. The variation in counties reaction was huge. US and UK were way behind the game for a start.

Ho ho, very witty. Nothing to do with the virus, just the political leaders. Sweden went down the herd immunity road, infections way up now.

Desperately sad, please at least read what I said properly. Nowhere did I mention class (Obviously your own obsession). I have never raised a power to the people flag in my life, although in a Democracy that is of course where the power should ultimately lie.  The different responses by different governments to the Covid crisis have been exhaustively documented. The best governments like Iceland & NZ for just two examples have set a standard anyone would want to follow. I merely commented that certain rather similar leaders have behaved in rather similar ways, with tragically similar outcomes. Live with it, or pretend it isn't true, your choice.

Yep, thought so, could not prove me wrong. 

[Sheryl]

10 hours ago, Brunolem said:

A more adapted word than "racist" would be "xenophobic"...

 

Anyway, with its extreme reliance on tourism, Thailand is caught between a rock and a hard place...open the gates to the tourists and the virus, or keep the gates closed and millions unemployed.

 

I wouldn't call it extreme reliance. Tourism is significant but not the main engine of the economy, that is exports (which may also take a hit). Averaging about 20%  of the GDP is certainly enough to make its absence felt but I would not extreme. Its is around a third of the GDP in Cambodia... and two thirds the GDP in the Maldives.

[DavisH]

8 hours ago, amdy2206 said:

At least we are now 'foreigners' and not 'aliens - from outer space -'.

You do know that alien is a legal term? 

[GAZZPA]

2 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

 

I wouldn't call it extreme reliance. Tourism is significant but not the main engine of the economy, that is exports (which may also take a hit). Averaging about 20%  of the GDP is certainly enough to make its absence felt but I would not extreme. Its is around a third of the GDP in Cambodia... and two thirds the GDP in the Maldives.

Other countries may have even more reliance on tourism ok but that doesn't mean 20% of the economy being hit is not extreme, it is a catastrophic blow to any countries economy.

[androokery]

Can any country afford to wait out the virus, in anticipation of a vaccine that may or may not be effective?

I don’t think so. 

So they have to open up. Should they open up quickly or slowly and what kind of safeguards are they contemplating? They’re talking about quarantines before flying and after arriving. That’s not going to work for tourists. They’re talking about only sending tourists for long stays on Koh Phangan and Koh Samui, which is interesting since there are no actual hospitals there as far as I know. They’re talking about demanding some kind of document stating the tourist is free of Covid19. These must be no more than two days old. In my country it would not be possible to find a doctor to sign such a document, since they know the results are only valid at the time of testing. Demanding these types of documents is basically just an invitation for scams. 

 

And then I come to the final obstacle: obtaining insurance against a long stay in a Thai ICU for Covid19. That won’t be easy for tourists. I’ve had no luck finding anything appropriate. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by androokery

[DavisH]

2 hours ago, digger70 said:

Nah, leave that for the Returning Thais Who are coming back home from High Risk countries. ????

All Thais go into quarantine. And so should any forein tourist, for at least 14 days, when they step foot in this country. But that won't happen as I don't believe that anyone from Europe or the Americas eill be allowed into Thailand over the coming months. I mean months...it will be a long time. Thailand is better off srimulating domestic tourism in the short term. 

[joecoolfrog]

10 hours ago, Chivas said:

Its a tough choice. Make no mistake Thailand has done superbly over containing Covid unlike my own hapless government in the UK which have acted with catastrophic results.

I suspect the borders will open later this year but with really onerous restrictions in place first that will put off 95% of regular visitors.

 

I cant praise Thailand enough personally for the superb job they have done in controlling Covid overall

Could you please point out exactly what ' superb ' measures the Thai government took that differed from the ' hapless ' UK .

[elliss]

10 hours ago, Brunolem said:

A more adapted word than "racist" would be "xenophobic"...

 

Anyway, with its extreme reliance on tourism, Thailand is caught between a rock and a hard place...open the gates to the tourists and the virus, or keep the gates closed and millions unemployed.

 

 Toss a coin , heads up , wins .

  Money rules the World .

    Pandemic panic , aka pneumonia, been around a long time .

 Live with it. No work means no money , no food , starve ..

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by elliss

[Silent Number]

1 hour ago, GAZZPA said:

Ok, I get that but from what I read it said we can only tell the true rate when we test everyone because the vast majority of infected have not been tested and developed mild or no symptoms requiring no treatment. Therefore the estimation is approximately 1%. I hope the later is correct because 3.4% is very high.

 

1 hour ago, GAZZPA said:

Ok, I get that but from what I read it said we can only tell the true rate when we test everyone because the vast majority of infected have not been tested and developed mild or no symptoms requiring no treatment. Therefore the estimation is approximately 1%. I hope the later is correct because 3.4% is very high.

5,800,000 confirmed cases 360,000 deaths do the maths. 2.4% 3.4% was what W.H.O. Director general quoted on March 3rd briefing.

Edited May 29, 2020 by Silent Number

[GAZZPA]

10 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

Could you please point out exactly what ' superb ' measures the Thai government took that differed from the ' hapless ' UK .

That goes for me too. I am getting a little tired of reading about how useless the governments are from countries that are or had had big problems with the virus. I don't see any real difference between what Thailand did and what the UK did for example. The UK is like a giant ghost town in most places most of the time. Not one of them will ever answer the question "what would you have done differently" and not one of them accepts that the countries demographics and climate are completely different. 

 

As I remember correctly Thailand did not (read dare not) ban all flights from China at the time China was suffering. Reality check, not 1 single government has got it 100%, it's a new virus and this is something that nobody alive today has ever faced. 

 

Thailand has few cases so if you are there right now just be thankful, luck or judgement it doesn't matter.