Thai central bank says economic outlook uncertain amid virus outbreak

 

FILE PHOTO: The Bank of Thailand logo is seen in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economic outlook is highly uncertain because of the coronavirus's impact on the global economy, with risks to the outlook tilting downward, the central bank said on Tuesday.

 

At last month's policy review, the policy committee expressed concern over the strength of the baht <THB=TH>, which could derail the economic recovery, Titanun Mallikamas, assistant central bank governor and secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee, said in a statement.

 

The committee had emphasized that developments in financial markets and foreign exchange markets warranted close monitoring, he said.

 

On Monday, the Bank of Thailand said it was ready to take steps to curtail the strength of the baht.

 

The country's monthly current account is likely to be nearly balanced until tourist revenues recover, down from a historical average of $3 billion to $4 billion in surplus per month during the past few years, Titanun said.

 

In April, Thailand had a current account deficit of around $0.7 billion. Excluding gold, there was a deficit of around $3.1 billion, the largest deficit since 1990s, he said.

 

"Looking ahead, the recovery in global oil prices and a prolonged shortage of inbound tourists are expected to weigh on the current account outlook," Titanun said.

 

"This trend represents a shift in the current account balance and exchange rate dynamics following the COVID-19 pandemic," he said.

 

The current account is not expected to be the main driver of baht appreciation pressure in the forthcoming period, he said.

 

In March, the central bank forecast Southeast's Asia's second-largest economy would shrink 5.3% this year, the biggest contraction the biggest contraction since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.

 

It will release updated economic projections on June 24, when it next reviews monetary policy.

 

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring, editing by Larry King)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-03

 

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56 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thai central bank says economic outlook uncertain amid virus outbreak

They have only just come to realize this? A wonderful piece of economic prediction!

Good news for expats, the current account is more balanced so less (or no) foreign currency will accrue and potentially the Baht will weaken, perhaps. But then the article said: 

 

"The current account is not expected to be the main driver of baht appreciation pressure in the forthcoming period, he said".

 

As if to say there is another driver that will take the lead role in helping to keep the Baht strong, Dollar strength perhaps or maybe FDI....or am I reading too much into that statement?

 

And this one is interesting, to what developments do they refer specifically I wonder, a sinking USD perhaps: "The committee had emphasized that developments in financial markets and foreign exchange markets warranted close monitoring, he said".

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's economic outlook is highly uncertain because of the coronavirus's impact on the global economy

LOS is in the same boat as the rest of us.  Be patient and await the autopsy of this global lockdown.  Results should be out in about nine months.  

I read that Thailand has reverted to agriculture to improve its export  picture, agricultural exports are now the highest in eight years - they now accounts for 20% of all exports after falling off quite sharply in favour of more complex supply chain based products. The downside of course is the drought and the forecast that will continue.

The headline says they’re uncertain. Lol

i guess they’re still hoping the Chinese 

will swarm in starting next month.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

On Monday, the Bank of Thailand said it was ready to take steps to curtail the strength of the baht.

Ha ha ha! Very funny. That's a new one.

For months now every statement from the BOT has included the phrase about how 'worried' they are about the strength of the Baht.

 

Now despite claiming to be 'ready to take steps to curtail the strength of the baht', that's all that will happen - being ready.

I don't imagine for one moment the BOT to do anything.

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's economic outlook is highly uncertain

I beg to differ, if the Thai Baht strength continues to rise against the flow of the economy your future is actually very certain!

Now that's what I call an understatement.

join the world club

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/03/coronavirus-qa-will-able-go-holiday-summer-countries-can-visit/

 

Coronavirus Q&A: Will I be able to go on holiday this summer and which countries can I visit?

Surely the economic outlook is as certain as it has ever been?!

 

We're all doomed Captain Mainwaring!

 

Edited June 3, 20206 yr by SantiSuk

The bank says "hint hint nudge nudge say no more say no more"... 

On 6/3/2020 at 6:09 AM, torturedsole said:

LOS is in the same boat as the rest of us.  Be patient and await the autopsy of this global lockdown.  Results should be out in about nine months.  

Boy or a girl?