Exchange rate

[djdubuque]

Anyone else monitoring the exchange rate?  Just this morning I see news that Thailand was looking at opening backup for visitors and the exchange rate has fallen close to 29 baht to the dollar.

 

[1Gringo]

yup.  it's terrible, no good, rotten news and we'd all love to see that curve turned upside down.

[gillap]

I don't know where you are getting your information...but now the baht exchange for gold is 31.16US.

I have been keeping a close watch on the baht and although they say the baht is too strong and will try to bring it down I see the opposite happening! They like a strong baht and I think they are propping it up! Ask yourself why it's not going down under these economical condition...???

[nightbird]

29 minutes ago, gillap said:

I don't know where you are getting your information...but now the baht exchange for gold is 31.16US.

I have been keeping a close watch on the baht and although they say the baht is too strong and will try to bring it down I see the opposite happening! They like a strong baht and I think they are propping it up! Ask yourself why it's not going down under these economical condition...???

Don't you think it's the weak dollar that is propping up the baht? Dollar is down against most currencies. I wonder why? lol

[Trillian]

The Dollar has weakened because of recent high spending and high debt, the Baht has remained stronger because of the opposite and as a result, the ensuing capital inflows.

[Guderian]

Heck, the dollar's even been dropping against the pound for the last few days, how bad can things get, lol?

[Brunolem]

36 minutes ago, nightbird said:

Don't you think it's the weak dollar that is propping up the baht? Dollar is down against most currencies. I wonder why? lol

The US government has added 1 trillion dollars to the national debt in just one...month!!!

 

The Federal Reserve is also adding trillions to its balance sheet, in a frenzy of fake money creation.

 

No wonder that the people holding these dollars are rushing to exchange them against something with at least some value.

 

Expect more weakness for the USD, that will push the exchange rate with the baht ever lower...

[hugh2121]

Money market rate currently 30.995

[natway09]

I have been keeping exchange rates for many years.

Here we go, against the Baht Date 11.1.19

USD      31.78

Euro     36.37

UK        40.34

Jap       29.13

Aust      22.58

NZ        21.41

Can       23.91

Swiss    32.11

Sing      23.38

The Thai Bht will remain fairly strong as not "a nanny state" with little social security drain

as most countries above.

The export receipts in Thailand are starting to get back up again & will strengthen day by day

& lets remember all countries are having their problems, some worse than others

[KhunBENQ]

5 hours ago, djdubuque said:

close to 29 baht

? It took a dip but not close to 29.

 

[KhunBENQ]

Last time it fell to 29 and below was April 2013.

[Stevemercer]

I fact it is good news for everyone, except those who want to exchange US dollars. The dollar is down against all currencies. If the trend continues (another 20% or so), maybe it will help Trump becasue China will snap up cheap US products

[itsallmine68]

Would why Look at the news from the States number1, they are tearing it up.

. Also the Thai Government announced they would battle to get the baht down and that tells everyone to dump your US dollar which they have done.

 

[Trillian]

53 minutes ago, KhunBENQ said:

Last time it fell to 29 and below was April 2013.

30.16 in early January this year, close enough for horseshoes.

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

The US government has added 1 trillion dollars to the national debt in just one...month!!!

 

The Federal Reserve is also adding trillions to its balance sheet, in a frenzy of fake money creation.

 

No wonder that the people holding these dollars are rushing to exchange them against something with at least some value.

 

Expect more weakness for the USD, that will push the exchange rate with the baht ever lower...

I agree with you.  But consider why the fed took those actions.  Wuhan virus had shut down the entire economy.  They had to take drastic actions to save it.  How about a little blame sharing with the CCP?

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

I agree with you.  But consider why the fed took those actions.  Wuhan virus had shut down the entire economy.  They had to take drastic actions to save it.  How about a little blame sharing with the CCP?

Drastic actions yes, but they went way beyond that in order to reflate the stock market bubble, which had nothing to do with the virus, since this bubble was bound to pop, one way or another.

 

If you compare what the US has spent "because" of the pandemic, with other developed countries, after adjusting for GDP size, the US is an other dimension...

[Pattaya46]

8 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

// If you compare what the US has spent "because" of the pandemic, with other developed countries, after adjusting for GDP size, the US is an other dimension...

Right, but could be a winning bet if USA economy restarts far faster than others.

[DJ54]

A bit frustrating because my money is in USD and it’s be wavering up and down over the last 6 months are so.... 

[phkauf]

10 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

If you compare what the US has spent "because" of the pandemic, with other developed countries, after adjusting for GDP size, the US is an other dimension...

Fair point, but two months ago we were in un-chartered territory with nearly the entire economy of the US shutting down for an indeterminate period of time. There were Massive job losses across all sectors of the economy - all in a matter of weeks. There was no idea when this would end and everyone (businesses and individuals) shut their wallets. Financial markets were seizing up worse than the Lehman crisis.

A simple minded approach would say this was just a bailout of the banks and companies. But what the government and Fed did stabilized matters and stopped the panic from spreading. That's what lead to the Great Depression in the 20's was a lack of liquidity in the system and bank failures that just cascaded unto itself. Their efforts will lead to a faster recovery (as seen in last months job numbers) than had they waited and did nothing.

So yes, they spent a Sh!t Ton of money - but in the end it was probably well spent.

[RDavis]

If you follow it regularly, and in my case daily, you will see that although the GBP has strengthened against the US$, the THB has also strengthened against the US$, so the GBP is losing roughly 1% of its gain to the stronger baht.

 

[metisdead]

As this topic is not related to the Pub, moving to the Banking forum. 

[Max69xl]

6 hours ago, gillap said:

I don't know where you are getting your information...but now the baht exchange for gold is 31.16US.

I have been keeping a close watch on the baht and although they say the baht is too strong and will try to bring it down I see the opposite happening! They like a strong baht and I think they are propping it up! Ask yourself why it's not going down under these economical condition...???

What has gold got to do with the exchange rate? This morning 08:30 the TT buy rate at Bangkok Bank was 30.80 to the $. 

[Pib]

4 hours ago, Stevemercer said:

I fact it is good news for everyone, except those who want to exchange US dollars. The dollar is down against all currencies. If the trend continues (another 20% or so), maybe it will help Trump becasue China will snap up cheap US products

As the dollar get weaker then the cost of foreign made/imported goods will increase in America....stuff at Walmart will cost more for Americans.  Don't think even Trump supporters will like that.

[brianthainess]

AU dollar peaked at 22+ this week now 20.7. i managed to get 21.4 

[phkauf]

12 hours ago, Pib said:

As the dollar get weaker then the cost of foreign made/imported goods will increase in America....stuff at Walmart will cost more for Americans.  Don't think even Trump supporters will like that.

Yeah, but American goods will be cheaper to export which is good for manufacturers in the US. Plus if foreign goods are more expensive, domestic goods are more price competitive - also good for the US. Trump supporters would like that - unless you were making a low-class comment about how Trump supporters are all Walmart shoppers, which just shows your mentality.

[Pib]

 

The US imports a lot more than it exports.  A weaker dollar makes imports cost more in the U.S.  Whether you shop at the dollar store,  Walmart, or luxury retail stores prices will go up for Americans.  

Quote

 

In 2019, the total U.S. trade with foreign countries was $5.6 trillion. That was $2.5 trillion in exports and $3.1 trillion in imports of both goods and services.  

• The United States imports more than it exports.
• The 2019 U.S. trade balance is negative, showing a deficit of $617 billion.

 

•  

[nightbird]

54 minutes ago, phkauf said:

Yeah, but American goods will be cheaper to export which is good for manufacturers in the US. Plus if foreign goods are more expensive, domestic goods are more price competitive - also good for the US. Trump supporters would like that - unless you were making a low-class comment about how Trump supporters are all Walmart shoppers, which just shows your mentality.

This would be good if the USA was a manufacturing country like China. They gave up the idea of making stuff and let the Asians and Mexico do that kind of work years ago. Trump will try to drive the dollar down as much as he can. He wants isolationism. They make little worth having anymore. 

[Brunolem]

25 minutes ago, nightbird said:

This would be good if the USA was a manufacturing country like China. They gave up the idea of making stuff and let the Asians and Mexico do that kind of work years ago. Trump will try to drive the dollar down as much as he can. He wants isolationism. They make little worth having anymore. 

Exactly!

There is less and less manufacturing in the US, and very little of it is exported.

 

To be fair, Trump is not the only one cheering for a lower dollar.

 

Major central banks are all doing their best to depreciate their currencies against the others, in a race to the bottom.

 

Trump believes that with all its oil (a pipe dream) and agricultural production, the US could basically live in autarky.

 

His only problem is that "they" won't let him repatriate all the legions stationed abroad, and an empire cannot live in autarky.

[phkauf]

2 hours ago, nightbird said:

This would be good if the USA was a manufacturing country like China. They gave up the idea of making stuff and let the Asians and Mexico do that kind of work years ago. Trump will try to drive the dollar down as much as he can. He wants isolationism. They make little worth having anymore. 

I suggest reading David Ricardo's views on Comparative Advantage. The US cannot and should not compete with low cost countries for production of cheap goods, that's a losing battle and not worth fighting. The US is quite adept at manufacturing things requiring high technology and skills, something China is desperate to gain traction in to escape the middle income trap (where Thailand is stuck). 

A cheap Chinese currency could make up for lower quality with some buyers, but a weaker $ negates that advantage. Let the Chinese dominate the cheap plastic segment of the market, but the US wants to remain a leader in aircraft, technology, and other high value sectors.

[nightbird]

1 hour ago, phkauf said:

I suggest reading David Ricardo's views on Comparative Advantage. The US cannot and should not compete with low cost countries for production of cheap goods, that's a losing battle and not worth fighting. The US is quite adept at manufacturing things requiring high technology and skills, something China is desperate to gain traction in to escape the middle income trap (where Thailand is stuck). 

A cheap Chinese currency could make up for lower quality with some buyers, but a weaker $ negates that advantage. Let the Chinese dominate the cheap plastic segment of the market, but the US wants to remain a leader in aircraft, technology, and other high value sectors.

I agree that they should not compete in these low cost goods arena. But cars and aircraft have also taken a big hit in exports in the U.S. All this is a complicated area within the world of economics. What the U.S. is leading in is not what is driving the $ down. The world has tilted in a different direction than what the U.S. had envisioned decades ago. Poor leadership, bullying tactics, and a disastrous domestic situation has taken front and center. I personally wonder if it has the wherewithall to rise again without waging more wars.