Key economic data could influence baht next week

By THE NATION

 

 

The baht next week (June 29 to July 3) is likely to move between Bt30.70 to Bt31.20 to the US dollar, according to Kasikornbank which added that related factors to monitor include Thailand’s economic report for May and inflation rate in June, and the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, as well as employment numbers in the country.

 

 

The bank mentioned that other US economic numbers to monitor are the consumer confidence index this month, pending home sales report, factory orders, and the Fed meeting’s record.

 

The baht this week (June 22 to 26) strengthened in line with other Asian currencies, due to the economic lockdown easing in several countries, as well as a confirmation that the US and China trade agreement will not be changed from what the two countries had agreed before.

 

Also, the baht has strengthened continually after the Monetary Policy Committee decided to freeze interest rate at 0.50 per cent.

 

On Friday (June 26) the baht closed at Bt30.90 to the US dollar, after reaching Bt30.81, the highest point in five months, this week. The previous Friday (June 19), the baht closed at Bt31.01 to the dollar.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30390413

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-06-28

 

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Markets are projecting inflation to come in at -4.5%, that's down from the previous month -3.45%.

 

 

4 hours ago, Trillian said:

Markets are projecting inflation to come in at -4.5%, that's down from the previous month -3.45%.

 

 

How do they gauge the negative inflation?  Wife says food costs more.  And I can confirm no bargains in beer and wine.  Only thing I see going down—fuel costs.

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

How do they gauge the negative inflation?  Wife says food costs more.  And I can confirm no bargains in beer and wine.  Only thing I see going down—fuel costs.

The same way they gauge positive inflation, by determining the value of the same basket of goods: 

 

"This was the sharpest decrease in consumer prices since July 2009, amid falls in both transport & communication prices (-9.15% vs -9.77% in April), moostly due to vehicles and vehicle operations; and housing & furnishing (-5.61% vs -4.56%). Also, food prices fell 0.02%, the first drop since June 2018, after a 1.04% rise in April, mainly due to eggs and dairy products. Meantime, inflation was steady for apparel & footwear (at 0.08%), while prices of recreation & education rose faster (0.36% vs 0.34%). For 2020, the commerce ministry expects headline inflation to be in a range of -1.0% to -0.2%. Core inflation rate, which excludes raw food and energy, was at 0.01%, the lowest since a 0.1% fall in October 2009, compared with forecasts of a 0.35% rise". 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/inflation-cpi

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

How do they gauge the negative inflation?  Wife says food costs more.  And I can confirm no bargains in beer and wine.  Only thing I see going down—fuel costs.

And fuel is creeping back up again, as for food going up ,yes eggs are cheaper ,but so many other things have really gone up ,have noticed this while out shopping with the mrs, 

The IMF considers the Baht well overvalued. And it is not likely to change.

 

I love to see a weaker Baht.

On 6/28/2020 at 2:31 PM, Paiman said:

 I love to see a weaker Baht.

I'm sure the Baht's heyday will come to an end at some point, but it certainly won't be anytime soon.