Angering China, Australia suspends extradition treaty with Hong Kong, extends visas

[samran]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Easily said, "refocus trading arrangements", not so easily done in market reality where China buys 25% of Australia's agricultural produce, 70 billion USD of commodities.

 

It's not just commodities. Across the board, services, education, agriculture, Australia is dependent on Chinese money.

 

Who would buy the 25% of agricultural output? 70 billion of commodities?

 

Easily said. Not so easily done.

Well if China want to buy these things despite what is going on with Australia’s policy framework then that is their prerogative. But they use the threat to turn it off to further their political goals.
 

But if you were going to put all your eggs in one trading basket and whinge about it, then I’m not going to be too sympathetic. 
 

After the UK threw Australia under the bus joining the EEC, we had a whole bout of economic reform in the 80s and 90s to achieve a level of flexibility in our farmers and exporters - so we will move on. I’m not as chicken little as others are. 

Edited July 13, 2020 by samran

[Odysseus123]

52 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Easily said. Not so easily done.

Given the fact that large portions of Australia were in dire drought for the last 5 years-with an estimated agricultural loss of 12-15% and the fact that at the end of this period was savaged by bushfires AND then along came Covid 19 forcing Australia to live on it's superannuation funds..I would suspect that tilting at windmills-not even very effective in 17th century Spain-may not be the way to go.

I don't see the US or the UK picking up all that much of the slack.

 

What we need is a cunning plan..

 

 

[Eric Loh]

15 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

What we need is a cunning plan..

 

Baffle me that the Liberal Party stood for promotion of free markets and small government and yet Scott Morrison's policy is trying to project a big government image and interference of the markets with his actions. Australia should follow the ASEAN's foreign policy to avoid choosing sides. Australia is a small economy and trade dependent and trying to be the sheriff in Asia Pacific will cause more harm than good.  

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, samran said:

Well if China want to buy these things despite what is going on with Australia’s policy framework then that is their prerogative. But they use the threat to turn it off to further their political goals.
 

But if you were going to put all your eggs in one trading basket and whinge about it, then I’m not going to be too sympathetic. 
 

After the UK threw Australia under the bus joining the EEC, we had a whole bout of economic reform in the 80s and 90s to achieve a level of flexibility in our farmers and exporters - so we will move on. I’m not as chicken little as others are. 

Yes, but the EU itself has given Australia one of the worst trade deals. 

 

Because Australia is a relatively small market very few large markets will be tempted to treat Australia favourably.

 

I agree of course that China's blackmail policies are obnoxious, as are America's, but that is the way politics is done globally now. I also agree that it is not healthy for Australia to be that dependent on Chinese money. And yet, how would Australia refocus its economy? 

 

Sure with agriculture, even if China buys 25% of all Australian agricultural output, the quality of Australian products means they can be sold in other places in Asia. But which Asian country will need the numbers China has been buying? Even in Europe, where Australian products are not widely sold at all there is very little chance that this will change. Simply because European consumers prefer European products.

 

I don't think it is that easy for Australia to rework its entire economy and find markets elsewhere. 

 

And it's not just agriculture, it's many other areas of the Australian economy that currently depend on Chinese money.

[samran]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Yes, but the EU itself has given Australia one of the worst trade deals. 

 

Because Australia is a relatively small market very few large markets will be tempted to treat Australia favourably.

 

I agree of course that China's blackmail policies are obnoxious, as are America's, but that is the way politics is done globally now. I also agree that it is not healthy for Australia to be that dependent on Chinese money. And yet, how would Australia refocus its economy? 

 

Sure with agriculture, even if China buys 25% of all Australian agricultural output, the quality of Australian products means they can be sold in other places in Asia. But which Asian country will need the numbers China has been buying? Even in Europe, where Australian products are not widely sold at all there is very little chance that this will change. Simply because European consumers prefer European products.

 

I don't think it is that easy for Australia to rework its entire economy and find markets elsewhere. 

 

And it's not just agriculture, it's many other areas of the Australian economy that currently depend on Chinese money.

I don't think we've got any trade deal with the EU yet. Last I read it was still being held hostage by the Italian tomato growers.

 

As for what Australia will do, its really not something anyone can answer. I'd like to see more ASEAN engagement, but my experience with Australian companies looking to export to ASEAN is they see it as all 'too hard', which is strange when they get themselves in the thrall of China and to a lesser extent, India.

 

As I said, I'm a bit immune to the chicken little announcements from the mining and property sectors and to a lesser extent agriculture and higher education sectors. They've made their beds and they can lie in them as far as I'm concerned. They have to realise that for the past 20 years (to quote Keating) they've had a rainbow hit them in the ar3e with the once in the generation China boom.

 

It appears for one reason or another, its over. Now they have to pivot.

 

If they were smart they would made sure they were never too reliant on Chinese money. And if they were smarter they would have realised that the increased income was only temporary. They'll readjust and a lower AUD will help soften the blow.

Edited July 13, 2020 by samran

[simple1]

8 minutes ago, samran said:

I don't think we've got any trade deal with the EU yet. Last I read it was still being held hostage by the Italian tomato growers.

 

As for what Australia will do, its really not something anyone can answer. As I said, I'm a bit immune to the chicken little announcements from the mining and property sectors and to a lesser extent agriculture and higher education sectors. They've made their beds and they can lie in them as far as I'm concerned. They have to realise that for the past 20 years (to quote Keating) they've had a rainbow hit them in the ar3e with the once in the generation China boom.

 

It appears for one reason or another, its over. Now they have to pivot.

 

If they were smart they would made sure they were never too reliant on Chinese money. And if they were smarter they would have realised that the increased income was only temporary. They'll readjust and a lower AUD will help soften the blow.

As per usual it will be the 'workers' who will suffer most at a day to day level. I read some months back 90% of products on Oz supermarket shelves are from foreign owned companies, just shows how dependant Oz is on offshore business entities. By comparison, at this stage, Chinese owned property and land in Oz is, IMO, relatively a side show. 

[Odysseus123]

There are any number of excellent posts (offering different points of view) on this thread.

 

Australia has always experienced "The Tyranny of Distance" and her fortunes have always been tied to this ineluctable fact.

 

It is very true that from about 1850 until 1980 we were a large supplier of bulk goods...wheat,wool,meat,minerals and gold * to the -essentially-British market..We were never a "stand alone" country.

 

With the demise of the UK as the major trading partner it was obvious that we were going to look elsewhere and,over time,one brief glance at the globe of the world would inevitably point out where..once China became a major player on the world scene.

 

There is no escaping geography.

 

Perhaps if we had "upped sticks" and anchored close to San Francisco things might be a little different...but the reality is there and not to be denied..

 

*And horses..we were a major supplier of horses between 1870 and 1940 mainly to India..notice the repeating patterns?

[samran]

Interesting analysis in the AFR today. It’s a ‘freemium article’ depending on how much you click but here is the gist..

 

“International border closures may not affect overall economic growth this year as much as first expected because Australia will have a spare $38 billion in its pocket that would have otherwise been spent on overseas travel.

 

“CBA analysis released on Monday showed as much as $38 billion that would have been spent in offshore tourism would no longer leave Australia. Balancing that with the usual surplus of travel expenditure, Australia is $20 billion better off because of the COVID-19 restriction”

 

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/38b-saved-from-travel-but-can-we-spend-it-20200713-p55biw

 

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, samran said:

Interesting analysis in the AFR today. It’s a ‘freemium article’ depending on how much you click but here is the gist..

 

“International border closures may not affect overall economic growth this year as much as first expected because Australia will have a spare $38 billion in its pocket that would have otherwise been spent on overseas travel.

 

“CBA analysis released on Monday showed as much as $38 billion that would have been spent in offshore tourism would no longer leave Australia. Balancing that with the usual surplus of travel expenditure, Australia is $20 billion better off because of the COVID-19 restriction”

 

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/38b-saved-from-travel-but-can-we-spend-it-20200713-p55biw

 

Will still be spare $38 B in its pocket and wouldn’t do much for the economy if not spent. Does Australians have the appetite to spend under such health and economic conditions. 

[Logosone]

5 hours ago, samran said:

I don't think we've got any trade deal with the EU yet. Last I read it was still being held hostage by the Italian tomato growers.

 

As for what Australia will do, its really not something anyone can answer. I'd like to see more ASEAN engagement, but my experience with Australian companies looking to export to ASEAN is they see it as all 'too hard', which is strange when they get themselves in the thrall of China and to a lesser extent, India.

 

As I said, I'm a bit immune to the chicken little announcements from the mining and property sectors and to a lesser extent agriculture and higher education sectors. They've made their beds and they can lie in them as far as I'm concerned. They have to realise that for the past 20 years (to quote Keating) they've had a rainbow hit them in the ar3e with the once in the generation China boom.

 

It appears for one reason or another, its over. Now they have to pivot.

 

If they were smart they would made sure they were never too reliant on Chinese money. And if they were smarter they would have realised that the increased income was only temporary. They'll readjust and a lower AUD will help soften the blow.

Correct. That's what I meant, the EU is not bending over backwards to do any deal with Australia.

 

And ASEAN is the obvious alternative. Like Ody says, geography is destiny. And it is hard to sell in Cambodia, harder than in Germany. 

 

I agree with everything else.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Logosone

[GinBoy2]

On 7/9/2020 at 8:25 PM, Isaan sailor said:

So refreshing to see a country with enough hutzpah to stand up to the CCP.

I go out of my way to purchase non-Chinese products.

I think in general Western countries are finally waking up to the threat that China poses.

 

For the past decade or so, most tried to ignore the fact that China was increasingly becoming a threat, in the interest of trade and making money.

 

That's beginning to change, and Australia among all the Five Eyes has the largest dependance on China trade which makes this move even more bold.

 

I'm wondering if this sudden surge of China aggressiveness as opposed to their usual usual slow long game is because while the world is paralyzed by COVID they think now is the time to move, and move fast? 

 

This may well, I hope, be an inflection point in our collective dealings with China 

Edited July 13, 2020 by GinBoy2