Here Is Proof The Bangkok Condo Market Is Still Booming

[shochu]

Bingo-matic,

Why all the doom and gloom???

Who ate your lunch and then some???

Yes, vietnam is hot right now - with hot money. They are looking for quick profits. As I have said many times before - TO YOU - exactly what you are trying to shout emphatically.

If you want to hit a good party - then go there - but when the party is over - who are you gonna cry to then. Will you then go and rant on a vietnam thread???

DUDE bingo-MATIC - give it a rest!

[lannarebirth]

little perspective on busts, my comments in brackets and CAPS.........

One more time, for the uninitiated, from Manias, Panics and Crashes (got cash?)

The upswing usually starts with an opportunity - new markets, new technologies or some dramatic political change - and investors looking for good returns. (CHECK, PROPERTY AND COUP IN THAILAND)

It proceeds through the euphoria of rising prices, particularly of assets, while an expansion of credit inflates the bubble. (CHECK, EASY CREDIT BY OFFERING TEASER LOAN RATES aka SEE MY POST ABOVE #118)

In the manic phase, investors scramble to get out of money and into illiquid things such as stocks, commodities, real estate or tulip bulbs: 'a larger and larger group of people seeks to become rich without a real understanding of the processes involved'. (CHECK, BOOM IN THAI REAL ESTATE PEAKED in 2005 AND ACTUALLY NEGATIVE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT INFLATION)

Ultimately, the markets stop rising and people who have borrowed heavily find themselves overstretched. This is 'distress', which generates unexpected failures, followed by 'revulsion' or 'discredit'. (CHECK, AS WITNESSED BY EMPTY UNFINSISHED BUILDINGS aka THE TRENDY)

The final phase is a self-feeding panic, where the bubble bursts. People of wealth and credit scramble to unload whatever they have bought at greater and greater losses, and cash becomes king. (COMING SOON TO THAILAND AS THE ECONOMY CONTIUES ITS TAILSPIN)

That's very interesting, but I'm afraid it's the conventional wisdom. The thing is, everyone's got cash these days, and lots of it. Now, if prices were to climb another 200% then I think it's quite likely a crash could take it back down near these levels. Remeber , one needs the parabolic mania to get a crash. that just hasn't happened here IMO. I've got no horse in this race, but that's my view from the sidelines.

[highdiver]

Bingo-matic,

Why all the doom and gloom???

Who ate your lunch and then some???

Yes, vietnam is hot right now - with hot money. They are looking for quick profits. As I have said many times before - TO YOU - exactly what you are trying to shout emphatically.

If you want to hit a good party - then go there - but when the party is over - who are you gonna cry to then. Will you then go and rant on a vietnam thread???

DUDE bingo-MATIC - give it a rest!

so so strue.

when the going gets a little tough blame it on everyone.

the market is booming. only the ones that deal in small dimes dont see it.

there are huge investoes buying big projects all over thailand. they do so because they know!!

dont let the bingo-MATIC spoil your fun.

thailand is on the right path of a mature investment market as opposed to hot mony market.

[bingobongo]

the thing about dreaming......is that you eventually have to wake up......

first slump in 7 years - check

declining sales - check

confidence at 5 year low - check

lower GDP - check

Oversupply - check

Property market goes into decline

(Agencies) - With consumers feeling gloomy over the outlook of post-coup Thailand, the kingdom's nearly six-billion-dollar housing market has shrunk for the first time since 2000, industry experts say.

"People are delaying buying property due to a lack of confidence in the economy and politics," said Atip Bijanonda, president of the Thai Condominium Association.

Sales in the residential property market, worth 200 billion baht ($5.8 billion), dropped by 10 billion baht in the four months to April this year, marking the first decline since 2000, the association said.

The figure has rattled the industry, which saw demand nosediving during the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Atip said he expected more bad news with Thai consumer confidence stuck at a five-year low.

"The market may have negative growth this year," he said.

To shore up housing demand, the military-installed government, which came to power after a coup in September 2006, is expected to launch measures aimed at reviving the property sector, including tax cuts.

Pimonwan Mahujchariyavong, a property analyst at Kasikorn Research Center, said consumers were putting off buying property as they awaited a further cut in the key interest rate.

"Consumers are expecting gains from falling interest rates and they are waiting for the rate to go down further," Pimonwan said.

The Bank of Thailand slashed its key interest rate by a half-point to 3.5 percent last week in a bid to spur sluggish consumer spending and the slowing economy.

It was the fourth rate cut this year but business leaders called on the central bank to lower the rate more aggressively in an effort to stimulate the economy, which is seen rising 3.8-4.8 percent this year.

If growth was just 3.8 percent in 2007, it would mark the lowest increase since 2001, when Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 2.2 percent.

With flagging finances and political uncertainty under the military government, the number of new housing projects has fallen as some 90,000 houses and condos remain unsold in the market, said Pimonwan.

"The property market has slumped significantly since the beginning of this year because of shrinking confidence in the economy among developers as well as consumers," she said.

Longlom Bunnag, chairman of real estate management firm Jones Lang LaSalle Thailand, agreed.

"The slow growth of demand that the market is experiencing now is largely due to a lack of consumer and investor confidence rather than a decline in spending power," he said in a statement.

But Longlom said anticipated elections will likely see sales pick up later this year.

"We expect demand to recover in late 2007 or early 2008, once the political uncertainty is clear following the new election scheduled for December this year," he said.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=119022

Edited May 27, 2007 by bingobongo

[bangsue]

this was just posted up in the news section also;

Mass transit expansion boosts sales of surrounding property

BANGKOK: -- Sales of new homes easily accessible to mass transit system routes recently approved by the government should help improve Bangkok's battered and sagging property sector, currently beset by political and economic challenges, according to a leading real estate appraisal executive.

Agency for Real Estate Affairs president Sopon Pornchokchai said bidding for the construction of the Red Line connecting Rangsit, Bang Sue and Talingchan is expected to be held in July and should be a blessing for the property sector.

Current political and economic crises have already lowered average housing prices by approximately 25 per cent during the first quarter of this year, Mr. Sophon said.

And government measures aimed at stimulating housing sales are not very fruitful because the public is cautious on spending while businesses are reluctant to invest, he said, adding that housing values are anticipated to fall about 20 per cent in 2007.

Political problems will worsen if the general election scheduled for December is postponed, Mr. Sophon said. And furthermore, the economy would be negatively affected for a long period if any new government formed after the election is not stable.

--TNA 2007-05-27

i look off my balcony and i can see maybe ten BIG condo blocks going up too. tall cranes all over the skyline. i dont think there is enough demand for everything they are currently building. (i can remember up until maybe 4 years ago when the big office block next to central world lay empty, half finished, for many years).

[bingobongo]

hello all you donald trump wannabes......

economy is in tailspin, already too much supply and adding more will only depress prices further......genius, pure genius

again, when supply is greater than demand, prices go down

Mass transit expansion boosts sales of surrounding property

Current political and economic crises have already lowered average housing prices by approximately 25 per cent during the first quarter of this year, Mr. Sophon said

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=29596

[VegasVic]

well my dear friends, it appears that the smart money sees the writing on the wall and is moving their dough to Vietnam......oh well, good luck with next weeks political decisions..

but i am sure the dreamers on the board are more astute....

UK property investors shift B2bn in funds to Vietnam

Bangkok Post: 23 May 2007

By: KANANA KATHARANGSIPORN

Thai business climate poor for expansion

Two British investors have shifted to Vietnam two billion baht in property investment planned for Thailand due to the uncertain market caused by political tension, the Foreign Business Act (FBA) and a serious decline in consumer confidence.

''Thailand's property market this year will face a small decrease. This likely goes against the trend in the Asian region as a whole. Thailand seems to be the only country that is not enjoying the benefits of a strong growing property market,'' said the 40-year-old investor.

http://thailand-property-guide.com/?p=news...&NewsID=385

Sadly this is a scenario that will play itself out many times over as we go through the summer. Investors are getting very concerned about the current Thai political situation and are having increasing doubts as to weather there will actually be a democratically elected government by years end. Thailand will be in a weakened state when the "mother of all bubbles" (the chineese stock market) bursts later this year. Keep your powder dry folks, the market valuations in Shanghai are more out of wack than the NASDAQ was back in 2000 and when this tsunami hits it will affect markets all over the world, but particularly in SE asia. Just as Mr. Greenspans comments about irrational exeuberance in ther late 1990's went unheeded in the US, so to his recent comments about the bubble in chineese stocks will go largely unheeded as well. As the saying goes: Those who are unwilling to learn from history are doomed to repeat it!.

[bingobongo]

why buy at bloated prices when you can get it on sale due to someone else getting in over their head, it will be interesting to see how the foreclosures accelerate as the economy further weakens.......

40 re-possessed properties to go under the hammer

An auction of more than 40 pre-owned properties worth Bt50 million is being held in Bangkok on June 14.

The Legal Execution Department, in conjunction with Global Thai Property Mutual Fund and Palarp Asset Management, will be unloading the properties at prices as low as 50 per cent of the official appraised value.

Property Choice also holds monthly auctions to unload over 1,500 items worth over Bt1 billion in combined appraised value.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/29/business/business_30035450.php

[coops]

Quite an entertaining read this thread.... I'll have to come back and have a read thru all this - some useful developments/condos to check out possibly....

save up, wait for the next crash and buy something up

not sure why bingobongo is so worked up about it - if you think it's overheated then don't buy, wait until the crash then move in and get a 'bargain'...

This did raise a chuckle...

your obsession in spite of the reality is almost pathological

Dayamm those pathological obsessives - why won't they listen to me?

ps can't say d a m n , now that's also chucklesome

[Livinginexile]

THE BANGKOK HIGH END CONDO MARKET CONTINUES TO BOOM, AND HERE IS MORE PROOF!

"Sansiri's Baan Ratchadamri condominium is the current local record-holder in terms of price per square metre at the top end of the market, with a unit changing hands last December for 161,654 baht a square metre. Rents can reach up to 200,000 baht per month. The luxury tower overlooking Lumphini Park and the Royal Bangkok Sports Club has 34 units of 266 sq m and two penthouses of 416 sq m each."

"While condominiums developed by some foreign property developers are not cheap, Mr Srettha pointed out that his company is able to achieve higher prices with its Baan Ratchadamri project almost reaching 200,000 baht per square metre."

''People might search for other investments, they might buy other assets that could appreciate in value, they could sell over the long term or give it out for rent.''

"As Mr Srettha sees it, the impact of the current turbulence is mainly being felt in the budget condominium segment of the inner city condo market and not at the high-end where his company is positioned."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/280507_Yourmone...007_money47.php

BANGKOK POST

For all of Bingo's attempts at down ramping the market by quoting low end market statistics, the facts are that high end developments are selling out quick and prices are continuing to rise.

Rentals for these condo's are in high demand and far out strip demand (read the link above).

Buy now or pay double in 5-10 years.

[cclub75]

hello all you donald trump wannabes......

Let it go... they are just hopeless.

I mean, we get the fact, the figures that show a decline in the market, but they continue to use the word "booming". Highdiver wrote a fews days ago : "the market is booming.".

It's astonishing. And higly entertaining.

As for the good old joke about the famous Loch Ness Monster, AKA The Mega Projects, AKA The Mass Transit System for The Masses... It's always a good laugh.

Just look at this news :

The Japanese start to be a a bit worried about the stability of the country.

Japanese officials currently in Thailand to assess whether the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) should provide loans for planned rail mass-transit systems are worried that political changes could affect the projects.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/05/29...ss_30035453.php

The current (interim) thai gvt, backed by a bunch of lunatics in tight uniform, DOESN'T HAVE the money to pay for the train lines. Period.

Who will put a satang into thoses projects (that are changing every month, regarding design, location, exploitation, financing, following the weather and the mood of some minister etc.) in Thailand right now ?

The whole circus started... we don't even remember. At that time, Thaksin was in charge.

It's just a pathetic spin.

"Good bargain, cheap, cheap ! We will have new BTS station veryyyyyyy close to our condo. When ? Yes sure, not long. It's coming; Good location ! Buy buy cheap cheap, okay, yes sure ?"

Oh my god, can we stop being so... third world minded for a moment ?

[Livinginexile]

"A good example is the Baan Siri 24 condominium near The Emporium shopping centre that initially fetched 70,000 baht per square metre but now has reached 120,000 baht per square metre."

Not a bad profit....

http://www.bangkokpost.com/280507_Yourmone...007_money47.php

[typist]

THE BANGKOK HIGH END CONDO MARKET CONTINUES TO BOOM, AND HERE IS MORE PROOF!

"Sansiri's Baan Ratchadamri condominium is the current local record-holder in terms of price per square metre at the top end of the market, with a unit changing hands last December for 161,654 baht a square metre. Rents can reach up to 200,000 baht per month. The luxury tower overlooking Lumphini Park and the Royal Bangkok Sports Club has 34 units of 266 sq m and two penthouses of 416 sq m each."

(200000thb*12 months)

_____________________

161,654 thb/m2 * 266m2

why "up to" 200K thb?

I'm no Einstein, but obviously gross rental yield sucks. Subtract agent's commission, maintenance (a/c etc), and you're close to... 3% ?

[palm]

"A good example is the Baan Siri 24 condominium near The Emporium shopping centre that initially fetched 70,000 baht per square metre but now has reached 120,000 baht per square metre."

Not a bad profit....

http://www.bangkokpost.com/280507_Yourmone...007_money47.php

Today, I just bought my third Thailand condo, at 102,000 baht sq.m. 10% cash down, with the remaining payments over the next 24 months. My GF managed to knock them down about 100,000 baht in total by asking for *absolutely nothing* to be put into the condo (so its not really a discount as I'm not getting about 200,000 baht of stuff pre-installed). I don't want their aircons, plug sockets, bathroom bits or kitchen or laminated floor etc - so I can design it myself from scratch using materials and styles that I like.

I already have funds set aside for this, and it's a high quality pad in lower Suk in the perfect location for me when I want to meet up with friends to go shopping or partying.

Funny how all the doom-and-gloom brigade can't afford to buy high end condos; they don't own any property here (or abroad), nor do they employ anybody here (or abroad). According to you people, the sky has been falling down the past 30 years. GDP falls a % and you all wet yourself.

Definitely looking forward to reading yet more girly-squealing from the riff-raff in their tin huts giving their laughable advice on investment.

I'll stick to living in Thailand and having a ball here; and I'll stick to running an international business that earns income in $, £ and Euros, plus investing my cash in both Thailand and abroad.

Edited May 29, 2007 by palm

[pkrv]

Thanks livinginexile have I got this correct? on the Baan Siri 24 condominium. if so where is this in relation to lumpini park?

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=416043

[Livinginexile]

Thanks livinginexile have I got this correct? on the Baan Siri 24 condominium. if so where is this in relation to lumpini park?

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=416043

Hi pkrv

I am not sure of the exact location of this development but I have heard talk of it. I do know that it is a very highly sought after address.

It must be close to Lumpini MRT Station.

Anyone else know the exact location?

I assume it is very close to the Night Markets.

[trajan]

Thanks livinginexile have I got this correct? on the Baan Siri 24 condominium. if so where is this in relation to lumpini park?

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=416043

pkrv, just to clairify....the hyperlink you have indicated is Siri@Sukhumvit (which is a condo project located on Sukhumvit Road (between Sois 38 and 40 near Thonglor BTS Skytrain station).....

by contrast, Siri Residence 24 is located on Soi 24 Sukhumvit (behind that Emporium Department store).....Baan Siri 24 is another project on Soi 24 Sukhumvit

a third project is Baan Rajadamri (a very high end condo project) on Rajadamri Road (near the intersection with Sarasin Road)....this particular project has views of Lumpini Park and the Royal Sports Club race track and golf course....this project is said to approach B 200,000 per square meter in price (on re-sales)... those units are very good-sized (262 to 415 sq meters each)...

next door to Baan Rajadamri, another yet unnamed super high-end project is coming up (on the former Cambodian Embassy grounds)....I believe the developer is Raimon Land? in that case.... the per square meter price will probably be on par (or greater than) Baan Rajadamri....

Edited May 29, 2007 by trajan

[ThaiGoon]

Who will put a satang into thoses projects (that are changing every month, regarding design, location, exploitation, financing, following the weather and the mood of some minister etc.) in Thailand right now ?

Just wanted to say that this is a lie, exaggeration and false information. Only changes that have occurred are the adding of five more stations on Bang Sue-Rang Sit red line and thechange from the design and build plan to the detailed design before build plan for the blue route. Nothing else has changed. As for the financing aspect of the projects, the current gov't has stated that they wanted loans from JBIC and other domestic banks from day one. It's the delay on the financial backing from the Japanese that has mostly affected the bidding and construction dates of these mass transit lines.

[pkrv]

Livinginexile, trajan, ThaiGoon, Many thanks for the information, well informed and spectacular as usual. Are there web sites for the new developments? I am honestly struggling.

BTW that Thailand is taking out a loan from Japan (who will by default exercise due diligence) for an extension to Bangkok's travel infrastructure, speaks volumes, and is indeed is louder than words to me.

Edited May 30, 2007 by pkrv

[bingobongo]

so much reality.....so much denial.......

Thai GDP May Expand at Slowest Pace in 2 Years on Spending Drop

The dissolution of Thai Rak Thai ``opens up potential unrest and civil disobedience,'' said James McCormack, head of Asian sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings in Hong Kong.

Profit at Land & Houses, Thailand's largest homebuilder, dropped 26 percent to 530 million baht in the first quarter as falling confidence cut demand for new houses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

Edited May 31, 2007 by bingobongo

[backflip]

Isn't it amazing that, checking various websites for purchases (for example: www.apple.com, www.ihatedell.com), 100% of the complaints are posted by people who have purchased the actual products. Checking the real estate-related forums on ThaiVisa, 100% of the complaints (regarding prices and investment) are posted by people who refuse to buy real estate. Interesting. With the many postings of thaigene2, thedude, and bingobongo, I'd expect at least one buyer to post: "oh my, in the past 2 years my condo has lost 10% of its value." I guess things aren't what the big three say.

[typist]

Boom or Bust...many interesting viewpoints in this thread

Personally, I doubt that my condo has appreciated during the recent months - certainly not measured in THB.

Prove me wrong. I'm accepting offers. 10% above cost, and I'll gladly admit that I was mistaken.

You'll get a 110 m2 two bedroom condo with stunning views of Bangkok's skyline. Modern decor, highest quality fittings throughout, concealed air-conditioning, electronic dimmers, built-in appliances. Attractive common areas, landscaped resort deck with infinity pool, fitness room, sauna and steam room. 5 minutes to BTS. Walking distance to restaurants and shopping. 2 parking spaces. Bought last year, directly from the developer, for approximately 10% less than list. 

This is your chance

[Livinginexile]

Isn't it amazing that, checking various websites for purchases (for example: www.apple.com, www.ihatedell.com), 100% of the complaints are posted by people who have purchased the actual products. Checking the real estate-related forums on ThaiVisa, 100% of the complaints (regarding prices and investment) are posted by people who refuse to buy real estate. Interesting. With the many postings of thaigene2, thedude, and bingobongo, I'd expect at least one buyer to post: "oh my, in the past 2 years my condo has lost 10% of its value." I guess things aren't what the big three say.

Yes I agree.

Bingo constantly posts statistics on the budget end of the market, we all know this segment is suffering.

Not once has anyone posted proof that the high end is in any decline, in fact the purchase price and rents are increasing year by year.

All the major Asian metropoloitan areas are booming at the moment, just take the time to research the market in this area (especially expat rents, average US$10,000 per month in Hong Kong and more in Singapore).

Bangkok is next, I firmly believe this.

[bingobongo]

suckers born every minute......and more concrete shells......

how is the photography coming livinginexile?

False advertising ploys of real estate developers

The soft target is always foreign property buyers who are gullible by their ignorance. The ignorance is not the stupidity but the lack of knowledge. Only wisdom can lead you to the road of justice not perdition. Even “Truth is stranger than Fiction” but only the truth will set you free from any dilemmas.

http://www.pattayatoday.net/index.php?acti...ews&id=2333

[sinam]

Some of you seem to be good researchers with the thai media. I am looking for a deal seriously. Could you give me a list of the best deals for condos now that the market is suffering so bad? I am looking mid to high end. Perferably in Bangkok and Phuket. Thanks.

Si Nam

[Abrak]

I heard that Sansiri launched a high end condo at the Four Seasons over the weekend and sold out the whole project in one day.

So things cant be all that bad.

[pkrv]

Boom or Bust...many interesting viewpoints in this thread

Personally, I doubt that my condo has appreciated during the recent months - certainly not measured in THB.

Prove me wrong. I'm accepting offers. 10% above cost, and I'll gladly admit that I was mistaken.

You'll get a 110 m2 two bedroom condo with stunning views of Bangkok's skyline. Modern decor, highest quality fittings throughout, concealed air-conditioning, electronic dimmers, built-in appliances. Attractive common areas, landscaped resort deck with infinity pool, fitness room, sauna and steam room. 5 minutes to BTS. Walking distance to restaurants and shopping. 2 parking spaces. Bought last year, directly from the developer, for approximately 10% less than list.

This is your chance

In otherwords a staggeringly good deal, sorry but I have my own one already , your not really going to give it up are you

[quiksilva]

suckers born every minute......and more concrete shells......

how is the photography coming livinginexile?

False advertising ploys of real estate developers

The soft target is always foreign property buyers who are gullible by their ignorance. The ignorance is not the stupidity but the lack of knowledge. Only wisdom can lead you to the road of justice not perdition. Even “Truth is stranger than Fiction” but only the truth will set you free from any dilemmas.

http://www.pattayatoday.net/index.php?acti...ews&id=2333

The problem stems from the fact that the plans in the contract showed items that were not provided.

Saying buyers can sue based on what was in the brochure, which are typically made "subject to contract" and have all sorts of other disclaimers about measurements, availability, using architects impressions etc. is misleading. So in most cases it is what is in the contract that counts.

What this article should say, but doesn't, is that just like home, you must read all the small print, before committing to any major purchase.

What it showed was the fact that the developer which was sued had stunningly poor legal advice.

Edited June 4, 2007 by quiksilva

[gust]

Just saw on TITV's Hot Biz several condo projects in downtown bangkok, including some where construction has not yet begun, one with prices of 100,000Bt/sqm, have been basically sold out in a couple of hours during the last days. Buyers were (of course) mostly Thai. Projects have limited sale to three units per person, banks limit mortgages to two per person. Many probably hope to make a good profit after completion.

Looks like the market is heating up, I'd say. For sure no shortage of demand. Short term the prices should rise further. But the danger is of course over-heating and a possible collapse in the future. If that will happen and when, who knows. Could go on for quite a while until then...

[quiksilva]

Siam Cement told me last week that they intend to employ an additional 5,000