Here Is Proof The Bangkok Condo Market Is Still Booming

[bingobongo]

bubble bubble toil and trouble....once the euphoria of last weeks TRT ruling subsides, reality will return.....anyone notice than the shanghai index peaked at 4335 last week and is now down to around 3600 as i write this? ............it will come to LOS soon enough......

nothing like a liquidity induced bubble to keep things going.....aka BOT lowering rates last month, so you see dear reader, inflation is eroding wealth

To prick, or not to prick: that is the question

By Alan Boyd

The number of completed units rose by an annual average of 18% between 2000 and 2006 in mainland China, 17.5% in Thailand, 15% in Malaysia, 13% in Taiwan and 11.5% in Hong Kong. (OVERSUPPLY)

Few are likely to follow Thailand's knee-jerk reaction of imposing capital controls in December that starved businesses of funds for expansion and drove investment elsewhere. The rules have since been relaxed, but investor confidence has suffered. (WELL DONE JUNTA)

In Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, luxury-unit prices are expected to appreciate by 20-30% ( THE POLITICAL MESS IN THAILAND WILL PREVENT THIS) this year; however, some low-cost markets in these same countries have experienced an oversupply and stagnant prices.

An oversupply of units may be just around the corner in some markets. But right now that prospect is more appealing for some central banks than a bubble they can't afford to spike.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/IF01k01.html

[think_too_mut]

Just saw on TITV's Hot Biz several condo projects in downtown bangkok, including some where construction has not yet begun, one with prices of 100,000Bt/sqm, have been basically sold out in a couple of hours during the last days. Buyers were (of course) mostly Thai. Projects have limited sale to three units per person, banks limit mortgages to two per person. Many probably hope to make a good profit after completion.

Looks like the market is heating up, I'd say. For sure no shortage of demand. Short term the prices should rise further. But the danger is of course over-heating and a possible collapse in the future. If that will happen and when, who knows. Could go on for quite a while until then...

Same thing happened back in 1996. when a luxury building was announced at Circular Quay in Sydney.

Max 3 apartments per person. The queue was 200m. Many people had 30K A$ for the deposit but could only dream of hundreds and hundreds thousand more, even millions, when the building is complete.

One person I knew of bought in there (deposit only) and sold at 120K A$ (3 mil baht) profit when the time was due to pay full price.

That happening in Bangkok? My a**.

[palm]

Well this thread sure shows who has got plenty of money to invest, and who can't afford even relatively low Bangkok prices.

Anyone who is financially successful and is buying high end quality condos in Bangkok are able to do it for a prime reason - they have the financial resources and ability to do so. A lot of us probably earn more in a single day than you guys make in a month. But you keep squealing like little girls and fail to show any evidence of high end condos being in trouble.

Those who are living in sub 35sqm 'coffins' as one of the 'negative' posters said, clearly shows their piss-poor financial status and ability. It sure must be frustrating for those living in sub 5,000 baht a month apartments in some drabby area, to look up at the luxury developments they'll never be able to afford in their lifetime.

No wonder you guys are so negative and bitter. It sure must be miserable having to get by on say half a million baht a year, and know you'll never be able to buy anything high end here.

[ThaiGoon]

Well this thread sure shows who has got plenty of money to invest, and who can't afford even relatively low Bangkok prices.

Anyone who is financially successful and is buying high end quality condos in Bangkok are able to do it for a prime reason - they have the financial resources and ability to do so. A lot of us probably earn more in a single day than you guys make in a month. But you keep squealing like little girls and fail to show any evidence of high end condos being in trouble.

Those who are living in sub 35sqm 'coffins' as one of the 'negative' posters said, clearly shows their piss-poor financial status and ability. It sure must be frustrating for those living in sub 5,000 baht a month apartments in some drabby area, to look up at the luxury developments they'll never be able to afford in their lifetime.

No wonder you guys are so negative and bitter. It sure must be miserable having to get by on say half a million baht a year, and know you'll never be able to buy anything high end here.

Half a million Baht a year? IMO, that's a very very generous estimate Palm.

[pkrv]

think_too_mut - Insulting the (indeed any) country and its people, in which you have clearly participated/an interest -borderes in my opinion on insanity. I think I understand the new visa/house ownership issues from these types of comment alone.

But back to subject - Sorry trajan you mentioned

a third project is Baan Rajadamri (a very high end condo project) on Rajadamri Road (near the intersection with Sarasin Road)....this particular project has views of Lumpini Park and the Royal Sports Club race track and golf course....this project is said to approach B 200,000 per square meter in price (on re-sales)... those units are very good-sized (262 to 415 sq meters each)...

You are quite correct that would be ultra high end especially on the minimum size of 262 sqm - do you have any further information?

many thanks PKRV

[lopburi3]

Disagreement is fine - but personal insults are not. Several posts have been removed.

[pkrv]

I have a deep interest in the thread and noted the exchange and the 3 or 4 posts that were deleted, I do not recall a teejay post at all, you do not even seem to live in a condominium nor have an interest in such things? Did you post under another name?

Could we get back to the subject Here Is Proof The Bangkok Condo Market Is Still Booming please????

Edited June 5, 2007 by pkrv

[quiksilva]

pkrv, teejay did buy a condo in fact he just made a cool 1.5 million profit from selling his condo.

(From the "will condo prices move up or down and by how much?" thread)

well it's been some time since the original question was asked in sept 06. I'm in the process of selling a condo purchased off plan in may of 06 for a cool 1.5 mill in profit..... so to all the haters.... 1.5 mill could buy you a lot of buffalo for your isaan gfs, couldn't it?

ll you want but i guess this is why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, eh?

Tell us, in a year or 2, if you had any takers. Possibly, this site might not be around while your property is still on the market.

did you read correctly think too little? process of selling i.e. closing the sale. The sale is now completed an they money is in my acct in HK at 34.42 baht to the dollar... bought around 40.... +15 percent alone in currency appreciation.

Get it? Property is gone, sold, not mine anymore, profited grossly, out of my hands. In a year or 2 i'll tell you about the sick amount of money i'll have made in the HK real estate market, or will you talk down the market over there too... The game is out of your league, time to tend to the sick bufallo, mate, or stop whining about something you have no experience in. I keep making money, what do you keep doing, bithcing?

[pkrv]

Hmmm....... it takes a little time to sort the wheat from the chaff.

quicksilva - do you know anything about the development Trajan mentioned?

a third project is Baan Rajadamri (a very high end condo project) on Rajadamri Road (near the intersection with Sarasin Road)....this particular project has views of Lumpini Park and the Royal Sports Club race track and golf course....this project is said to approach B 200,000 per square meter in price (on re-sales)... those units are very good-sized (262 to 415 sq meters each)...

[quiksilva]

PS The Cambodian Embassy is indeed owned by Raimon Land but I would imagine that this will not be built for some time yet, they still have their hands full with The River.

To be honest I haven't been to Baan Rajadamri, so can't comment on layout/design/facilities etc. I know where it is though, the views should be great and the location is superb. Very central, walking distance to the BTS and Lang Suan (all those bars and restaurants).

BT 200,000 / sqm sounds a bit steep, the sizing is also on the large side. No problem if its your home, but not ideal if you intend to lease it out.

Whilst Im a commercial/industrial guy, I did run residential letting here for a while (but no longer, too much hassle and not enough money), when we were marketing a new Grade A apartment building on Silom all the 1 & 2 beds quickly let out at good rates, however 3 bed units need a ton of family related facilities to make them viable (this typically equates to higher sales prices, so perhaps this place has something to offer?)

This is why we found that a lot of Expat families prefer to lease houses and many dont mind being further out of the city if it means being closer to schools or have grounds where their kids can learn to ride a bike in safety.

After saying all that good product in a good location is always worth a look.

Bottom line: 1-2 beds in central locations are easier to let and achieve better rental rates / square meter.

[think_too_mut]

Disagreement is fine - but personal insults are not. Several posts have been removed.

Mod, just think - anyone of the sharks and former boiler room staff - turned real estate agents - can boost and pump their cause.

If I am pointing at them - my posts get deleted.

They even said "those who can not afford anything decent in BKK".

As if they could, anywhere on the planet.

[trajan]

But back to subject - Sorry trajan you mentioned

a third project is Baan Rajadamri (a very high end condo project) on Rajadamri Road (near the intersection with Sarasin Road)....this particular project has views of Lumpini Park and the Royal Sports Club race track and golf course....this project is said to approach B 200,000 per square meter in price (on re-sales)... those units are very good-sized (262 to 415 sq meters each)...

You are quite correct that would be ultra high end especially on the minimum size of 262 sqm - do you have any further information?

many thanks PKRV

hi....here's a website with some good info on Baan Rajadamri

[lopburi3]

Disagreement is fine - but personal insults are not. Several posts have been removed.

Mod, just think - anyone of the sharks and former boiler room staff - turned real estate agents - can boost and pump their cause.

If I am pointing at them - my posts get deleted.

They even said "those who can not afford anything decent in BKK".

As if they could, anywhere on the planet.

Please read the rules. Your two posts were removed for the stated reasons - personal insults. Do not post again on moderation issues.

[bingobongo]

it is amazing how egos and emotion get in the way......for those who missed it the first time.......

Is it possible that some folks will never leave the Denial stage, even as housing prices continue to plummet, inventory continues to swell and demand continues to crater?

And what stage do you think the majority of these groups are in today:

1) Realtors

2) Homedebtors (unless you are done paying the bank you are not a "homeowner")

3) Home builders

Edited June 5, 2007 by bingobongo

[pkrv]

trajan - quicksilva - I guess you have easily cross referenced each others comments on the projects and posts - again the word B****r - or sold out - comes to mind, is this a market that is in decilne? I think not.

An honest question bingobongo if the models failed what would you do?

Edited June 5, 2007 by pkrv

[ThaiGoon]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/06...ss_30036117.php

Major Dev't plans condos worth Bt5 bn

Major Development plans to launch three condominium projects worth up to Bt5 billion in Bangkok and Pattaya.

The projects will boost its sales revenue to Bt2.08 billion this year, up 30 per cent from Bt1.6 billion last year.

Managing director Dr Suriya Poolvoralaks said yesterday that although the property market had seen slight growth this year, the demand for luxury condominiums in Bangkok's central business district and tourist areas had continued to grow.

As a result, the company has continued to expand its investments by launching the three condominium projects in the second half of this year.

Two will be in the business district while the other in Pattaya will target foreign investors who want to buy a second home in Thailand.

The company has also set aside a Bt1-billion budget to buy new land for development next year in Bangkok, Pattaya, Hua Hin and Cha-am.

[pkrv]

PS The Cambodian Embassy is indeed owned by Raimon Land but I would imagine that this will not be built for some time yet, they still have their hands full with The River.

To be honest I haven't been to Baan Rajadamri, so can't comment on layout/design/facilities etc. I know where it is though, the views should be great and the location is superb. Very central, walking distance to the BTS and Lang Suan (all those bars and restaurants).

BT 200,000 / sqm sounds a bit steep, the sizing is also on the large side. No problem if its your home, but not ideal if you intend to lease it out.

Whilst Im a commercial/industrial guy, I did run residential letting here for a while (but no longer, too much hassle and not enough money), when we were marketing a new Grade A apartment building on Silom all the 1 & 2 beds quickly let out at good rates, however 3 bed units need a ton of family related facilities to make them viable (this typically equates to higher sales prices, so perhaps this place has something to offer?)

This is why we found that a lot of Expat families prefer to lease houses and many dont mind being further out of the city if it means being closer to schools or have grounds where their kids can learn to ride a bike in safety.

After saying all that good product in a good location is always worth a look.

Bottom line: 1-2 beds in central locations are easier to let and achieve better rental rates / square meter.

Thanks quicksilva I guess you and me both are noticing that anything unique in Bangkok is disapearing (e.g. customs house) very fast indeed, I understand the concepts you have put forward but something else is happening. Trajan's post

hi....here's a website with some good info on http://www.sansiri.com/en/project/baan_rat...amri/index.htmlhttp://www.sansiri.com/en/project/baan_rat...amri/index.html

and ThaiGoons post referencing (back on track I see)

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/06...ss_30036117.php

Sort of supports this, very tricky indeed and I suspect not transparent just yet.

[quiksilva]

Sansiri's presales on target

Sansiri is keeping its presales target for this year at Bt15 billion despite the sluggish residential market.

"We believe that our presales will meet the target, especially for detached housing, although demand for detached homes grew only slightly in the first five months of this year," Samatcha Promsiri, senior marketing manager, said yesterday.

Up to Bt8 billion of the 2007 target is expected to come from detached homes and the remaining Bt7 billion from town houses and condominiums.

Presales last quarter met the target. Of the Bt5.4 billion taken in presales, Bt1.7 billion came from detached housing and Bt3.7 billion from town houses and condominiums.

Sansiri has had to design the new phases of its existing projects to match demand, Samatcha said.

For example, the second phase of Sethasiri on Prachacheun Road was introduced with a Bhutanese theme to challenge home-buyers who love to stay close to nature in a Bhutanese context.

The project will open for presales this weekend with units priced from Bt7.2 million to Bt10 million. This is where I live, it has already had a soft opening and almost half of the units have been booked, in fact seven buyers were waiting at the sales office at midnight to secure homes with lake views

The company has had to launch unique designs and marketing activities to stand out in the crowded market. Its marketing budget has been set at Bt500 million.

Last quarter Sansiri earned Bt41.52 million in net profit on revenue of Bt2.68 billion.

Somluck Srimalee

The Nation

[bingobongo]

lets see, BOT lowers rates in hopes of flooding with liquidity to stem slowing economy and thus encouraging the building of more units leading to more oversupply, numerous unsold cement shells available, rising defaults and affordibility decreasing........oh this will be interesting to watch....

so if the average Thai is saddled with debt? who will buy all those overpriced shells? so price pressure is now down, not up........

Big mortgages 'beyond many'

Only 25 per cent of a survey's respondents can afford monthly mortgage instalments of Bt10,000, according to the Real Estate Information Centre (REIC).

Lower income in light of lower economic growth has caused great difficulties for developers in unloading new housing units.

Due to weak consumer purchasing power and confidence, homes priced above Bt2 million have a harder time finding buyers. Data from developers show that residences costing Bt1-Bt2 million are the most popular.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/07...ss_30036207.php

[quiksilva]

The vast majority of Thais have never been able to afford 'large' mortgages, so what's news? The average office workers' salaries are less than 20K per month so why is this a big surprise?

whistling.gif Lower income in light of lower economic growth has caused great difficulties for developers in unloading new housing units. whistling.gif

For some perhaps, but certainly not all.

[bingobongo]

what is the name of that famous Don Ho song......Tiny Bubbles.....

MORTGAGES

GHB ready to relax its loan terms

Latest package finds few takers

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/08...ss_30036286.php

[quiksilva]

The fact is that you will find both positive and negative business stories in the Post and Nation almost everyday, it is an uncertain time, everyone I speak to in the business community (and that's alot in my line of work) are saying the same thing they decry that its slow but when I ask about their business, they are doing okay, not great, but okay.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce also said at a press conference its latest survey showed the business sector viewed the negative factors affecting the economy as having bottomed out to a clearer political situation. But the economy for the rest of the year would be affected by factors such as oil prices and exchange rates.

Economy set to lift after critical spell

[quiksilva]

Bingo don't read this:

The success of the projects is evident. On a recent visit to the Udomsuk office, the sales people, who are extremely pleasant, said all of the 210 one-bedroom units, which are nicely designed and selling from Bt1.3 million, are booked.

What remains are its 24-metre studios. This goes to prove that given the choice, buyers will still prefer paying a bit more money to get a bigger unit even though a smaller one may cost about 30 per cent less.

Buyers not put off by mini units

[cmsally]

Anyone know of cheap condos for sale (size not too much of a problem ie studio OK) around Siam Square area?

[merlion]

Yes, manhattan also has a 'manhattan chidlom' condo next to chidlom road

which will be completing in a few months time, ahead of schedule. Wonderful design!

[craigt3365]

I have been following this thread for some time, and am just starting to dip my toes into the Thai property market. I have spent a few days here in Hua Hin looking at property. I have to say I am amazed at the prices (how high they are), and how quickly properties are selling. Several I looked at on Thursday are already sold. 5 lots were sold between then and now at a Bali type house development, 6.5-8.5MB price. Pretty impressive.

Correct me if I am wrong, but what I have been seeing is a lot of speculation. Many resale units I have looked at have never been lived in...some sitting empty for a year, or less, and just now coming to market...the buyer pricing them at 20% or so more than they bought them. But the resales seem to not be appreciating so much. I guess the big money is to be made on the initial purchase...

And there is a ton of new developments here. Unreal. Some good, some not so good.

I know this has nothing to do with bangkok condo prices, but thought I would post this anyway...I am in Bangkok next week to start poking around there for condos....

[bingobongo]

hello all you donald trumps.......

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Golden Land taps CBD potential NINA SUEBSUKCHAROEN

As Mr Wilfong sees it, the Thai condominium market is not completely moving in the same direction and looking ahead he is concerned about the amount of supply coming up at the lower end.

''There is an awful lot of low-end condos coming up, an awful lot, and Bangkok is a huge city and there is a big demand, but is it going to keep up with level of supply coming in?''

While Golden Land itself is doing well, Mr Wilfong is concerned about the very top end of the condo market where prices are above 100,000 baht a square metre because these developments count on a big foreign component and he's uncertain how well that is doing.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Yourmoney/11Jun2007_money47.php

[bingobongo]

lets see, incresed condo speculation, more supply coming on line.....oh well, all bubbles eventually deflate

10-20% spec? i'd venture it is more like 40%-50% given "investment" and "speculation" can be construed as the same thing (given all the empty, unoccupied new construction)

Tighter criteria as speculation looms

Banks are tightening up residential loan approvals for both developers and individuals as the real-estate market shows signs of increased speculation, particularly for condominium projects in central districts.

Chatchai believes the mix of real demand, investment and speculation is 60 per cent, 20-30 per cent and 10-20 per cent.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/11...ss_30036498.php

Edited June 11, 2007 by bingobongo

[sinam]

This is actually a pretty postive arcticle. Bank behavior is the key and they seem to be on top of things. See any real deals out there yet Bingbong? Thats the real proof in the pudding...

Si Nam

lets see, incresed condo speculation, more supply coming on line.....oh well, all bubbles eventually deflate

10-20% spec? i'd venture it is more like 40%-50% given "investment" and "speculation" can be construed as the same thing (given all the empty, unoccupied new construction)

Tighter criteria as speculation looms

Banks are tightening up residential loan approvals for both developers and individuals as the real-estate market shows signs of increased speculation, particularly for condominium projects in central districts.

Chatchai believes the mix of real demand, investment and speculation is 60 per cent, 20-30 per cent and 10-20 per cent.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/11...ss_30036498.php

[cuica]

First high profile condo developer to almost bite the dust in these "booming" times?

Grande Asset is the well-known developer for The Bangkok Regent and the (defunct?) Trendy Condominiums, as well as supposedly six other projects in Thailand.

Grande Asset's Bt12-bn bonds

Cash-strapped Grande Asset Development will place secured floating debentures worth up to Bt12 billion with Lehman Brothers Commercial Corporation Asia, a firm associated with its major shareholder, to move ahead with its resort and residential projects.

Thanathip Vidhayasirinum, managing director of Sage Capital, Grande Asset's financial adviser, said yesterday that with the political uncertainty, economic slowdown and delay in construction projects, Grande Asset's internal cash flow had dried up to the point where it can no longer work on its eight projects and redeem its debts.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/08...ss_30036290.php

On Bangkok Post and the Nation these days, it's good to see CBRE and another developers (Major, Raimonland etc.) coming out from time to time to reassure us that the high-end condo market is healthy and doing well. Just don't tell it to the poor souls who bought units at The Regent Bangkok. The project was slated for Dec. 2006 completion but now pushed back to 2008, according to the folks over at Skycrapers.com.

Now I am sure some may even argue that Grande Asset's undoing is more mis-management than market-related. Whatever you say, sir. Nonetheless, in this so called "booming" period, it's still prudent to see the finished product first before you buy.