cuica, this is a very interesting thread - there are definitly failings in the low to mid range condo market. It has been stated time and again, if you build a good product in the right location and at the right price people will just buy (the market has become quite transpoarent these days).

I'm afraid attempting to pursuade people that a condo is in a pime location in Bangkok, whilst it is actually located in a swamp in a province no one can prononce (OK I jest) is no longer quite good enough, it might have been once, but we all grow up, except of course selfish children who are quickly spotted these days, by the banks who have to carry the weight of their financial burden on society. Quite frankly I pitty the banks!

cuica, this is a very interesting thread - there are definitly failings in the low to mid range condo market. It has been stated time and again, if you build a good product in the right location and at the right price people will just buy (the market has become quite transpoarent these days).

pkrv - what you said is true, and in the case of The Regent Bangkok, it is indeed located in a prime location (Sukhumvit Soi 13), marketed and sold as a high end condo. And in this case, people have bought off-plan and gotten hurt in these "booming" times. Let's hope their case is just one of delay, not failure to complete.

cuica, this is a very interesting thread - there are definitly failings in the low to mid range condo market. It has been stated time and again, if you build a good product in the right location and at the right price people will just buy (the market has become quite transpoarent these days).

pkrv - what you said is true, and in the case of The Regent Bangkok, it is indeed located in a prime location (Sukhumvit Soi 13), marketed and sold as a high end condo. And in this case, people have bought off-plan and gotten hurt in these "booming" times. Let's hope their case is just one of delay, not failure to complete.

Lehman Bros are now in control of this asset. Why would it not complete? When have you ever met an investor of this cailbre who put money into a project without being assured of a healthy ROI? They are not interested in buying projects just to build a portfolio.

They would not have taken this asset on to their books if they were not certain that they could attain very healthy returns which they can only achieve if the project completes and units transfer.

Lehman Bros are now in control of this asset. Why would it not complete?

They would not have taken this asset on to their books if they were not certain that they could attain very healthy returns which they can only achieve if the project completes and units transfer.

Let me see your psychic license.

I would say the chances of completion are much higher, certainly, now that LB is in charge. But how can you be 100% sure?

When have you ever met an investor of this cailbre who put money into a project without being assured of a healthy ROI?

Oh you hear their stories quite often as a matter of fact.

Not real estate but in the realm of investment, look up the story of Myron Scholes and Long Term Capital Management, to start. Nobel Prize Winner in Economics, can't go wrong, right?

Fair enough you can never be 100% sure but seeing as we are both (I presume) merely observers in all this, I will buy you a beer if I'm wrong!

cuica, this is a very interesting thread - there are definitly failings in the low to mid range condo market. It has been stated time and again, if you build a good product in the right location and at the right price people will just buy (the market has become quite transpoarent these days).

pkrv - what you said is true, and in the case of The Regent Bangkok, it is indeed located in a prime location (Sukhumvit Soi 13), marketed and sold as a high end condo. And in this case, people have bought off-plan and gotten hurt in these "booming" times. Let's hope their case is just one of delay, not failure to complete.

Lehman Bros are now in control of this asset. Why would it not complete? When have you ever met an investor of this cailbre who put money into a project without being assured of a healthy ROI? They are not interested in buying projects just to build a portfolio.

They would not have taken this asset on to their books if they were not certain that they could attain very healthy returns which they can only achieve if the project completes and units transfer.

Ever heard of Enron? Oh - sorry I'm sure there are major differences..

it appears the "Trendy" condominiums should be renamed the "Overspendy"....as builder default is coming

I find it both unfortunate and ironic that the OP of this thread is also the OP of the following thread:

Trendy Condominiums...

There are always going to be good real estate opportunities in slow markets and bad real estate opportunities in booming markets.

I, like some others following this thread don't have a horse in this "booming - not booming" debate. My real estate interests for the time being are for undeveloped seaside land for a future retirement home. I do think that some will do well with their mid to upper Bangkok condo purchases. Others will not be as lucky and may end up losing quite a bit.

My wife has a friend in Nonthonburi who bought a 1 million baht condo somewhere near the southern bus station. I heard the units sold well and that the second phase of the project sold out in one day. There is a third phase coming available soon and people are already trying to get in line. I have know idea what these condos are like and I assume that most if not all of them are being sold to Thais, but it's just an example of how unpredictable this whole Bangkok condo market appears to be.

Fair enough you can never be 100% sure but seeing as we are both (I presume) merely observers in all this, I will buy you a beer if I'm wrong!

Great! I'll be sure to check back on that condo's progress from time to time. But let's hope you don't need to buy me one.

We sold one of our Rajadamri condos last month without even advertising it. Just a passing mention to the girl downstairs that we were interested in renting it out or possibly selling it and the unsolicited offers started streaming in. All offers were from Thais and we took the third offer. Things that are priced realistically are selling very easily if they are in a good location with a decent view.

cuica, this is a very interesting thread - there are definitly failings in the low to mid range condo market. It has been stated time and again, if you build a good product in the right location and at the right price people will just buy (the market has become quite transpoarent these days).

pkrv - what you said is true, and in the case of The Regent Bangkok, it is indeed located in a prime location (Sukhumvit Soi 13), marketed and sold as a high end condo. And in this case, people have bought off-plan and gotten hurt in these "booming" times. Let's hope their case is just one of delay, not failure to complete.

Lehman Bros are now in control of this asset. Why would it not complete? When have you ever met an investor of this cailbre who put money into a project without being assured of a healthy ROI? They are not interested in buying projects just to build a portfolio.

They would not have taken this asset on to their books if they were not certain that they could attain very healthy returns which they can only achieve if the project completes and units transfer.

Ever heard of Enron? Oh - sorry I'm sure there are major differences..

Of course Thaigene all investors are just like Enron

it appears the "Trendy" condominiums should be renamed the "Overspendy"....as builder default is coming

Yes it's been a hair raising experience buying at "The Trendy".

I have to admitt, at one point I thought I would lose my 25% deposit.

There is a US based project management firm now looking after the job. www.cmdintl.com

It's now going ahead and looks to be about 90% complete.

The one good thing is I bought at the original 2005 price.

Anyway....It will be finished before the end of this year.

more lollipops and rainbows......not

more concrete shells coming right up

Govt 'has to contain upheaval'

Falling confidence caused people to feel reluctant to spend money or invest. More than 50 per cent of respondents said it was not a suitable time to invest, travel, purchase new cars or buy new homes.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/15/business/business_30036881.php

Edited June 14, 200719 yr by bingobongo

nothing to see here, move along........

Construction firm slashes income target

Construction firm Nawarat Patanakarn has slashed Bt1.8 billion off its revenue forecast for the year and now predicts an income of only Bt3.2 billion, due mainly to a slow-down in both government and private construction projects.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/15/bus...ss_30036887.php

"Not real estate but in the realm of investment, look up the story of Myron Scholes and Long Term Capital Management, to start. Nobel Prize Winner in Economics, can't go wrong, right? "

Well, the Scholes-Black formula worked great, until Russia announced it couldn't pay its debts. Opps! How do you break it gently to your investors that you lost over a trillion dollars ; )

If anyone knows of any Bangkok condos in a good area with a good view at an attractive price, please feel free to post. We hear all the promises of gloom and doom, but bargains are few and far between. Those negative on the market are rarely the sellers, usually the non-participants.

Edited June 15, 200719 yr by bingobongo

Oh, the envy of the non-participant... I'm sure your landlord is quite satisfied!

so lets see: coup, bombings in bangkok and in the south, consumer confidence at record lows, builders stopping some projects, high debt service amongst populace, banks offering teaser rates (via 3 month home loan interest deferals), rumours of another coup, oversupply of property, and draconian capital controls (did i miss anything?).....given all the above, i thought the following definition might come in handy

Real Estate Dictionary

Bubble Buyer (bub·ble buy·er)

-noun

1. A person that purchases a home at the peak or near the top of a housing bubble.

2. Someone, who believes Realtor hype and propaganda that home prices always go up, who pays way too much for a house.

Well, I'm not sure I fit the definition of bubble buyer as I just completed the sale of one of my Ratchadamri condos. But, I would argue that the Thai buyer of my condo is hardly a bubble buyer. He's getting a good property with a 10% return every year by renting it out. And I'm more than happy with my profit as well. Seems like a win-win, rather than a lose-lose situation. It's not exactly the sign of a collapsed market when buyers and sellers are benefiting nicely from their transactions.

hello mdeland, you are right i am a nonplayer at the moment, as we sold our property in 2006 prior to the glorious coup, so as of now, our money is safely tucked away in the west, we will come back, once the coup has thoroughly destroyed the economy (which they are well on their way to doing as we speak)

by the way how is your midlife crisis coming along?

At 48, 49 next month, I'd say I'm way, way past my mid-life crisis, which, all in all, went quite well thank you. I've entered my sunset years where I'm content to just fly my little plane as often as possible and as low and slow as possible. Sounds like in many ways we're on the same page. Like most Thais and farangs, I enjoyed the prosperity of the early and mid Thaksin era and I'm pretty much sitting back until the right-wing military coup finishes its mindless devastation. I do think prices have bottomed out and if I'd waited to sell my condo another six months or a year I wouldn't have expected to get a lower price.

I do sincerely hope you are correct and that lovely buying opportunities are just around the corner. No one wants to see a collapse more than me!

hello mdeland, you are right i am a nonplayer at the moment, as we sold our property in 2006 prior to the glorious coup, so as of now, our money is safely tucked away in the west, we will come back, once the coup has thoroughly destroyed the economy (which they are well on their way to doing as we speak)

by the way how is your midlife crisis coming along?

Ahhh there it is....

Poor old Bingo sold his Bht500k condo in 2006 and now the market has boomed so much it has locked him out of the high end segment and now he is really pissed.

So you are waiting for a "crash" Bingo?

Like Hong Kong?

Like Shanghai?

Like Singapore?

Like KL?

Like Jakata?

etc, etc, etc....

High end condo market is BOOMING in Bangkok.

There are stuill some bargains around the old airport Bingo, perhaps you would feel a little more comfortable out there.

Good lucke dude

hello mdeland, you are right i am a nonplayer at the moment, as we sold our property in 2006 prior to the glorious coup, so as of now, our money is safely tucked away in the west, we will come back, once the coup has thoroughly destroyed the economy (which they are well on their way to doing as we speak)

by the way how is your midlife crisis coming along?

Ahhh there it is....

Poor old Bingo sold his Bht500k condo in 2006 and now the market has boomed so much it has locked him out of the high end segment and now he is really pissed.

So you are waiting for a "crash" Bingo?

Like Hong Kong?

Like Shanghai?

Like Singapore?

Like KL?

Like Jakata?

etc, etc, etc....

High end condo market is BOOMING in Bangkok.

There are stuill some bargains around the old airport Bingo, perhaps you would feel a little more comfortable out there.

Good lucke dude

oh my god!!!

made my week end

so lets see: coup, bombings in bangkok and in the south, consumer confidence at record lows, builders stopping some projects, high debt service amongst populace, banks offering teaser rates (via 3 month home loan interest deferals), rumours of another coup, oversupply of property, and draconian capital controls (did i miss anything?).....given all the above, i thought the following definition might come in handy

Real Estate Dictionary

Bubble Buyer (bub·ble buy·er)

-noun

1. A person that purchases a home at the peak or near the top of a housing bubble.

2. Someone, who believes Realtor hype and propaganda that home prices always go up, who pays way too much for a house.

Keep your eye on both the Thai retail and commercial banks over the next few months. They've been see-sawing on the SET. Those that are over extended with loans to both developers (commercial banks lending to developers who have sold out "100%" - but in reality 90% of purchasers are speculators) and speculators themselves (retail banks who lend to those borrowing to service their off-plan purchase).

That's where the bubble indicator wil be strongest. When (if) the retail banks start to report losses due to bad loans (speculators who couldn't flip so bail out of the loan with relatively small losses prior to completion of property), and when (if) the commecial banks start to report losses due to loans to developers who can't service the debts 'cause the speculators have bailed out prior to completion and the retail bank refuses to pay the rest of the money (typically 80%) to the developer cause of the bad retail loan to the speculator!!

You simple can't tell yet - but if/wehn the above indicators start to happen - then we'll know if it's a real buyers' market.

Having said that, ten years after the last financial crash and the backs are still trying to unload sh+thole condos/houses at the same over-inflated prices - and won;t drop the prices.

Also heard somewhere else, that once these banks begin using (relatively) new internationall-accepted accountancy rules now due that this big house-of-cards will be there for all to see.

FURTHUR PROOF THE HIGH END CONDO MARKET IS STILL BOOMING.

”I would probably say there are four or five [deluxe condominium developments] that all appear to be doing quite well,” says Laird. “There is a lot of foreign interest, which is good to see, and I think they’re managing to sell out their foreign quota without too much trouble"

Nigel Cornick, CEO of developer Raimon Land.

“We’ve seen consistently high demand for Grade A products over the course of the last two years,” says Cornick. “And that seems to be replicated with the other developers, certainly on the back of strong foreign interest. Plus, affluent Thais have always been keen on investing in prime real estate. All in all we’re pretty bullish on the Grade A CBD.”

"High-end condominiums under construction at the moment that are attracting attention for all the right reasons include TCC Capital Land’s Empire Tower in Silom, The Met on South Sathorn Road, the Pano on Rama III, Major Development’s ‘The Watermark’ on the riverside, Goldenland’s ‘The Infiniti’ as well as LeRaffine’s Sukhumvit 39. All of these projects boast impressive amenities and facilities that one would find in a five-star hotel, and pay strict attention to detail"

A

according to Raimon Land research, prices for inner-city condominiums have risen by over 30 per cent in the last two years, and some high-end projects launched on Sathorn Road in the past few months are now priced at up to Bt130,000 per square metre.

http://thailandpropertyblog.blogspot.com/2...-end-condo.html

AND STILL FURTHER PROOF THE UPPER BANGKOK CONDO MARKET IS STILL BOOMING.

According to Ms. Aliwassa Pathnadabutr, Managing Director of CB Richard Ellis Thailand, "Luxury and high-end condominium units in downtown Bangkok have been attracting a huge amount of interests from long-term investors even though the market has slowed down as a result of the political and economic situation. However, over the past few years, long-term investors who make profits from reselling or earning rental income from their units have remained keen to purchase condominium properties in Bangkok because of their understanding and confidence in the market. Based on their experience, they are satisfied with investment returns in the form of capital appreciation and rental yields of 5-7%, which is higher than the current deposit account interest rate of 3.5%."

http://www.financealley.com/article_171295_33.html

hello mdeland, you are right i am a nonplayer at the moment, as we sold our property in 2006 prior to the glorious coup, so as of now, our money is safely tucked away in the west, we will come back, once the coup has thoroughly destroyed the economy (which they are well on their way to doing as we speak)

by the way how is your midlife crisis coming along?

Ahhh there it is....

Poor old Bingo sold his Bht500k condo in 2006 and now the market has boomed so much it has locked him out of the high end segment and now he is really pissed.

So you are waiting for a "crash" Bingo?

Like Hong Kong?

Like Shanghai?

Like Singapore?

Like KL?

Like Jakata?

etc, etc, etc....

High end condo market is BOOMING in Bangkok.

There are stuill some bargains around the old airport Bingo, perhaps you would feel a little more comfortable out there.

Good lucke dude

Well here in Singapore a HDB flat has just gone for circa 16 million THB

A ex-council house to us Brits so its not just the UK where they go for a lot - my mum's is just under that in the NE of England

What you call high end in BKK would not get you much down here!

Condo's are through the roof - my landlady has made the equiv of 8 million THB on this one since she had it handed over October last year.

Dunno about Thailand but its certainly booming here and will be for the next 4 years at least.

Edited June 17, 200719 yr by Prakanong

AND STILL FURTHER PROOF THE UPPER BANGKOK CONDO MARKET IS STILL BOOMING.

According to Ms. Aliwassa Pathnadabutr, Managing Director of CB Richard Ellis Thailand, "Luxury and high-end condominium units in downtown Bangkok have been attracting a huge amount of interests from long-term investors even though the market has slowed down as a result of the political and economic situation. However, over the past few years, long-term investors who make profits from reselling or earning rental income from their units have remained keen to purchase condominium properties in Bangkok because of their understanding and confidence in the market. Based on their experience, they are satisfied with investment returns in the form of capital appreciation and rental yields of 5-7%, which is higher than the current deposit account interest rate of 3.5%."

http://www.financealley.com/article_171295_33.html

Based on the latest survey by the CB Richard Ellis Research team, in 2005, there were 1,788 newly launched units positioned at the luxury and high-end of the market while there were are 1,097 newly launched units in 2006, representing a significant decrease of 38.6%. In 2007, it is expected that there will be a similar number of new luxury and high-end condominium launches as in 2006. CB Richard Ellis recommends that buying a luxury condominium unit is a good investment option as there will be limited supply in the future

tHIS IS A NO BRAINER AS FAR AS i'M CONCERNED.

Keep your eye on both the Thai retail and commercial banks over the next few months. They've been see-sawing on the SET. Those that are over extended with loans to both developers (commercial banks lending to developers who have sold out "100%" - but in reality 90% of purchasers are speculators) and speculators themselves (retail banks who lend to those borrowing to service their off-plan purchase).

2. Financials Industry Group (consisting of the banking, finance & securities,

and insurance sectors):This industry group saw net profit of THB 23,276 million,

a 22% y-o-y decline, principally due to setting aside reserves for doubtful

debts as required by Bank of Thailand (BOT).

cite