Here Is Proof The Bangkok Condo Market Is Still Booming

[samran]

one more time....all together now.......when SUPPLY is greather than DEMAND.......prices go down.....

In theory bingo.

But, you've never heard of sticky prices? The thai market for apartments in my book is stickier than elsewhere. Part of the reason is that many Thai's rely less on bank loans to purchase thier condo's in the first place. They pay in cash, so are happy to keep prices up either on rents or sale price. Most of my relatives don't have a mortgage for any of their properties or condo's. A close family friend - pretty wealthy - has had his house on the market for more than a year. No takers, but then again, he is not lowering his price, and isn't in a rush to sell. He even offered free rent to me and my wife to stay in it, but it is too far out for us.

People aren't mortgaged to the hilt here like they are in the west.

Where is Heng when you need him?

[Mid]

People aren't mortgaged to the hilt here like they are in the west.

I must take exception at this statement .

[samran]

People aren't mortgaged to the hilt here like they are in the west.

I must take exception at this statement .

in what way? Factually incorrect or something else?

[sukanyacondo]

I bought 3 condos last year price 1.2million each I am trying to buy another now and they are all asking 1.8 million upwards/ I know asking and selling prices vary but this is a BIG increase!!!

[Mid]

re the farmers debt ,

[samran]

re the farmers debt ,

very valid point and a slip on my behalf. I was refering property owners - in BKK. A bit too BKK focussed at times, plus, I'm in the market for a place to buy...in BKK.

[Mid]

understood and appreciated , as much as you missed it I saw it that's all .

[cmsally]

I bought 3 condos last year price 1.2million each I am trying to buy another now and they are all asking 1.8 million upwards/ I know asking and selling prices vary but this is a BIG increase!!!

I'm also looking for a condo, you must be doing better than me because I can't find anything much below 2.5m

Apart from the ones that aren't finished yet, not much good to me , as I want to use it from Aug onwards.

What has surprised me is that you go on the Thai language websites with condos for sale and instead of the owner you 80% of the time seem to get an agent. I would have thought more people would be looking to sell direct since there are quite a few well visited websites.

[pkrv]

re the farmers debt ,

very valid point and a slip on my behalf. I was refering property owners - in BKK. A bit too BKK focussed at times, plus, I'm in the market for a place to buy...in BKK.

that went over my head, sorry, Please PM.

[bangsue]

be careful with your money at the moment, i know you would rather listen to the guy in the expensive suit with the flashy brochures, but be careful

thread today

[Livinginexile]

Some more intresting numbers.

"Despite the completion and launch of more new supply, the condominium market has remained generally healthy in 2006. By the end of the year, forty one new condominium projects comprising 5,300 units are scheduled for completion in central Bangkok, bringing the total stock to 52,880 units. For projects which are already complete, the average sales rate has reached almost 100%.

Forty six projects comprising 16,000 units are currently under construction and scheduled for completion between 2007 and 2009, which will result in annual supply of roughly 4,300 units per annum. These projects have reported healthy sales with the average sales rate standing at over 70%."

"Based on the number of work permits issued, there are an increasing number of resident expatriates in Bangkok. The number of permits increased from 47,107 at the end of 2004 to 54,607 at the end of 2005. Over the first ten months of 2006, this figure grew by another 8.2% to 59,096."

http://www.joneslanglasalle.co.th/en-GB/ne...ket+Outlook.htm

[bangsue]

i should have included 'the Vested Interests with the flashy websites'

be careful.

[stevemiddie]

I,m looking to buy too but i,m keeping my money in the bank for now until after the "elections "

I need to know which way the new government will go regarding foreigners.

[pkrv]

Stevemiddie - You are not going to like what I say but the dynamic markets (it does not matter which one) require a few years forward planning for investment. Why do you say you are looking to see what the Thai government will do with foreigners when they have already said they only intend to impact dropouts by enforcing visitor visas to international standards?

[quiksilva]

i should have included 'the Vested Interests with the flashy websites'

be careful.

"flashy websites", so what if it comes from an average looking site with no thought given to their image it is more reliable?

What a load of old cobblers.

As for "vested interests" you might be amazed to hear that real estate firms rarely deal with every single developer in the country and are not actually making money from every project (if only that was true).

Anyway how do you define a "vested interest" in real estate?

If you own / rent / plan to buy/ plan to sell / plan to rent you could be perceived as having a vested interest, a bias if you will, of some description, so that would be... errr... everyone outside Thailand, except the homeless then....

hmmmm

So if there are any homeless people or someone overseas out there who has no real estate interests in Thailand and fancies putting together a free research report on the condo market after speaking to every developer in Bangkok, and confirming the total amount and value of each of their projects and independently checking and confirming their sales figures, please raise your hand....

Perhaps I will go to a plumber for electrical advice next time as ya know he doesn't have any vested interests in saving cash on installing electrical jobs... I mean come on... does this seem like paranoia to anyone else?

[stevemiddie]

Stevemiddie - You are not going to like what I say but the dynamic markets (it does not matter which one) require a few years forward planning for investment. Why do you say you are looking to see what the Thai government will do with foreigners when they have already said they only intend to impact dropouts by enforcing visitor visas to international standards?

Thats as maybe....but which government has said that? The Thai military? Ex TRT? And we will definately have a democratic government by the end of the year?

The Thai economy is not looking to hot at the moment so i will wait and see. My HO.

And "impacting" on dropouts? I,ve also seen the changes to foreign company ownership and voting rights.

A baht that has strengthened considerably lately.

Not exactly a great time for me to be bringing in funds from overseas.

Edited June 25, 2007 by stevemiddie

[pkrv]

I don't think the old Ferang company ownership issue on land and homes is at play here? this is on Condos - no change - blast me into dust if there is.....

Edited June 25, 2007 by pkrv

[stevemiddie]

I don't think the old Ferang company ownership issue on land and homes is at play here? this is on Condos - no change - blast me into dust if there is.....

Hi. No...........you are quite right. Does not affect condo ownership.

I,m only thinking that there might be a "knock on effect" so to speak.

[Livinginexile]

i should have included 'the Vested Interests with the flashy websites'

be careful.

"flashy websites", so what if it comes from an average looking site with no thought given to their image it is more reliable?

What a load of old cobblers.

As for "vested interests" you might be amazed to hear that real estate firms rarely deal with every single developer in the country and are not actually making money from every project (if only that was true).

Anyway how do you define a "vested interest" in real estate?

If you own / rent / plan to buy/ plan to sell / plan to rent you could be perceived as having a vested interest, a bias if you will, of some description, so that would be... errr... everyone outside Thailand, except the homeless then....

hmmmm

So if there are any homeless people or someone overseas out there who has no real estate interests in Thailand and fancies putting together a free research report on the condo market after speaking to every developer in Bangkok, and confirming the total amount and value of each of their projects and independently checking and confirming their sales figures, please raise your hand....

Perhaps I will go to a plumber for electrical advice next time as ya know he doesn't have any vested interests in saving cash on installing electrical jobs... I mean come on... does this seem like paranoia to anyone else?

Very well said.

Quiksilva, you understand the market very well.

[obsession]

>>The signs are all there for a property crash and more, but some people actually cant see them. I really dont understand it.

Well that's your basic problem - you really don't understand it.

One day, maybe if you whingers are lucky enough to be able to buy in the 10m+ baht range here in Bangkok (after all, the majority of us white-skins have to pay cold hard cash), you'll have a better understanding why people buy high quality property here and continue to do so.

The laughable 'you don't get it', 'fool born every minute' brigade are the same tired whingers who squeal like little girls who've just dropped their ice cream on the floor. It must be painful for you to see others with the ability to purchase high quality condos in Bangkok.

By understanding economic principles, and the little things like supply, demand, inflation, fiscal policy, debt ratios, exchange rates, hedge funds, taxes, trusts, macro and microeconomics, the grown-ups have a very good understanding of how the world works and profit from it.

In the last 15 years, I've come across countless whingers who say markets are about to 'collapse', but really what they mean is 'life is not fair, I can't afford to buy anything of nice quality; all those who can must be stupid.'

Meanwhile, those who don't have a thorn in their side, use cash they make from their work, businesses and investments to buy nice property here and lead a superb luxury lifestyle.

What a childish piece of drivel. Rather than debate anything you shout WHINGERS and call people jealous. It is you who sounds like a little girl. Ive already told you I have apartments in the 1st world, so how could I not afford them in los. Grow up.

What we are saying is that "in our opinion" all the recent problems in los " may" lead to property going down in value. Whats so bad about having that opinion? Its obviously just an opinion because nobody knows for sure. Its probably the majority opinion at present, which at least proves that it isnt completely outlandish. Reread the last paragraph in your post. Dont you sound ridiculous?

Does this forum have the ignore function?

[pkrv]

obsession - you sound like you have exposed yourself.

[cuica]

>>The signs are all there for a property crash and more, but some people actually cant see them. I really dont understand it.

Well that's your basic problem - you really don't understand it.

One day, maybe if you whingers are lucky enough to be able to buy in the 10m+ baht range here in Bangkok (after all, the majority of us white-skins have to pay cold hard cash), you'll have a better understanding why people buy high quality property here and continue to do so.

The laughable 'you don't get it', 'fool born every minute' brigade are the same tired whingers who squeal like little girls who've just dropped their ice cream on the floor. It must be painful for you to see others with the ability to purchase high quality condos in Bangkok.

By understanding economic principles, and the little things like supply, demand, inflation, fiscal policy, debt ratios, exchange rates, hedge funds, taxes, trusts, macro and microeconomics, the grown-ups have a very good understanding of how the world works and profit from it.

In the last 15 years, I've come across countless whingers who say markets are about to 'collapse', but really what they mean is 'life is not fair, I can't afford to buy anything of nice quality; all those who can must be stupid.'

Meanwhile, those who don't have a thorn in their side, use cash they make from their work, businesses and investments to buy nice property here and lead a superb luxury lifestyle.

What a childish piece of drivel. Rather than debate anything you shout WHINGERS and call people jealous. It is you who sounds like a little girl. Ive already told you I have apartments in the 1st world, so how could I not afford them in los. Grow up.

What we are saying is that "in our opinion" all the recent problems in los " may" lead to property going down in value. Whats so bad about having that opinion? Its obviously just an opinion because nobody knows for sure. Its probably the majority opinion at present, which at least proves that it isnt completely outlandish. Reread the last paragraph in your post. Dont you sound ridiculous?

Does this forum have the ignore function?

Thanks, Obsession, for saying what I wanted to say to Palm for a long time. I don't mind that he takes a different view of the market, but by making blanket statements that people who don't agree with him are just jealous people who cannot afford the high-end condos is simply just condescending, untrue and reek of bad taste. If you look through this thread, Palm has repeatedly said the same thing in many posts, so I have gotten accustomed to ignoring his drivel.

[pkrv]

cuica - please believe you me separating the wheat from the chaff is a titanic task, some have more direct approaches, and why not.

Could we get back to topic please - All I see is that costs increase so condos increase in price. 1M THB = the cost of a car, this is cheap.

[obsession]

obsession - you sound like you have exposed yourself.

What are you talking about? You were exposed on another property thread as someone who likes to cause trouble. You didnt deny it. I think you have a vested interest and try to shout down anyone with an opposing opinion rather than try to change their opinion by reason. Without comparing los to a 1st world country or calling me names, tell me why you think condos will appreciate.

[cmsally]

Err guys back to topic. I think if you choose something in the right location, at the right price, take a look at how its managed and who's living there, in the end you cannot go wrong. For me I am not looking at a boom, although it could happen, it is a case of being realistic and you can still find good deals that you won't lose on. Don't forget it's a capital city, even if you look at the Thai sector of the market only, there are plenty of buyers and renters. It is not a case of trying to prove anyone is wrong, for some people it is a good place to put a couple of million baht, lets face it there are not many places you can buy something outright for a couple of million baht.

[Fletcher]

Not speculation but real experience regarding luxury condos:

Bought a condo off the plan in 2004 in Sukhumvit Soi 11, a very nice development, that when I bought cost roughly THB65,000 /sqm and a total price of just under THB8M. Which reflected market prices at the time.

Completion has been delayed repeatedly, and agents stated that you can only "flip" the condo in the last couple of months before completion. In the meantime prices increased to between THB75-80,000 in 2006, potentially giving me a tidy profit if i sold.

I put it on the market in 2007 in April, initially at THB78,000 and have been reducing it ever since. I was using two of the big agents, and received 0 enquiries.

Since then several more units from the same development have also come on the market to one of the agents. The other doesn't even bother to return status reports anymore.

They recently let me know that another client of there's in a similar price range had to sell at a THB1M loss, in order to offload it, and that was on a purchase based on 2005 prices.

Fortunately, due to the late completion I have cancelled my purchase, and hope to be out of the market very soon.

Please read this from one of the major intl agencies sent to me in the last few weeks:

"I am afraid that the market is getting worse. We have also had other

sellers in your project on higher floors putting them with us at 73k per sqm

but so far not even one enquiry. Today we had a client put their unit with

us in a new project called Manhattan at a price in which he will eventually

lose close to 1m baht.

We do not have any predictions about how low the prices will go as I

personally think that the market will crash, possibly by the end of the

year. If that happens then prices will fall heavily. Personally if you

simply want to get out of this investment then dump the price now and let us

try to sell it at whatever price we can get for you, maybe can try 67k per

sqm? Otherwise if you plan on keeping it and then trying to rent it out you

will have the same problem with the rental as the rental market is also a

disaster."

One other factor that I would urge people to consider is that the THB is very overvalued at present, so to buy now will give you a lot less for your £'s and $s.

In other words if the property market does crash or the THB adjusts, or potentially both happen, then investors bringing funds from overseas, will be hit doubly.

With regard to those of you quoting the 100% sold signs, consider the following (and apologies to those who have made these prescient points before):

1. A condo is only sold once Title Deeds are tranferred, as 70-80% of the price is given to the developer at that time.

2. Large numbers of these condos were purchased in a rising market, purely for speculative returns. Many of these purchasers will not complete in a falling market.

3. Many of the 51% thai reserved condos, were never sold in many of the more recently launched developments.

4. Many developments were launched on the back-of-the-boom, with inferior locations, design etc and these will be hit hardest.

5. Only relatively few of all the projects launched in this business cycle have completed so far. There is still a lot of supply yet to reach the market.

So I summise that Demand has already fallen, Supply is still increasing (and will do significantly at the end of this year) there is only one possible outcome.

[rott]

Fletcher, unless you're winding us up that is a staggering comment from a professional realtor.

Can't believe there haven't been a dozen replies already.

[rott]

Fletcher, unless you're winding us up that is a staggering comment from a professional realtor.

Can't believe there haven't been a dozen replies already.

[pkrv]

Fletcher, unless you're winding us up that is a staggering comment from a professional realtor.

Can't believe there haven't been a dozen replies already.

I agree a staggering post from a newbie, new posters generally try to find their feet first - Err the Manhattan

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=177314

Is a minimum of 4 years off - it is not off the ground yet but appears to have the required number of sales to proceed. Someone is predicting a 1M THB loss in 4 years time I dread to think what energy and commodity costs will be by then, 1M THB may well then buy a second hand 50cc moped.

[bangsue]

i should have included 'the Vested Interests with the flashy websites'

be careful.

"flashy websites", so what if it comes from an average looking site with no thought given to their image it is more reliable?

What a load of old cobblers.

As for "vested interests" you might be amazed to hear that real estate firms rarely deal with every single developer in the country and are not actually making money from every project (if only that was true).

Anyway how do you define a "vested interest" in real estate?

If you own / rent / plan to buy/ plan to sell / plan to rent you could be perceived as having a vested interest, a bias if you will, of some description, so that would be... errr... everyone outside Thailand, except the homeless then....

hmmmm

So if there are any homeless people or someone overseas out there who has no real estate interests in Thailand and fancies putting together a free research report on the condo market after speaking to every developer in Bangkok, and confirming the total amount and value of each of their projects and independently checking and confirming their sales figures, please raise your hand....

Perhaps I will go to a plumber for electrical advice next time as ya know he doesn't have any vested interests in saving cash on installing electrical jobs... I mean come on... does this seem like paranoia to anyone else?

i'd call a vested interest somebody who has money invested in something and wants to increase the value of that investment. dont really understand the rest of what you are talking about.

prices don't always go up, get yourself tuned into the us market .

read about what's happening in spain.

or maybe you could just follow the sheep and get yourself a cool 7million baht house in ireland