Confusion amid reports Thailand's top economic team to resign

[Isaan sailor]

Good news.  Thailand needs a strong industrial base to compete in the global marketplace.  Merely selling fruit and rice to China just won’t cut it.  China should be viewed as a friendly competitor—not as an overlord.

[smedly]

13 hours ago, Eibot said:

Jumping ship before they can be blamed for the biggest recession in Thai history.

That doesn't sound too bad since it is going to happen across the world so I don't agree

 

here is what better fits the narrative 

 

Jumping ship before they can be blamed for the biggest financial mess in Thai history.

 

[hotchilli]

10 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

The sh*t will hit the fan from October onwards, this is the calm before the storm and it has the potential to be really bad. The 2nd wave is not the virus, it's economic fallout from the lockdowns.

Correct, when figures for the 3rd & 4th quarters come out the news will be Thailand is in deep economic trouble.

[Trillian]

5 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

So it's OK to lose the last 4 years growth overnight? Mmmm OK....

 

So let's say 22% of 67%. That's 15%

Lets say 50% of your 8% domestic tourism, that's 4%

 

That's 19% gone just there before you consider other domestic contraction due to everything being closed for 6 months.

 

So like I said, forget about an 8% drop. 20% will be more realistic, likely more. But no doubt you'll say that's nothing to worry about, because that's your job.

No it's not OK to give up the past 4 years of export growth, the point is that it's not a major disaster however.

 

Your math: that's 19% of 67% (not of 100%), for three months out of the past six ONLY, you can't get to 20% for the entire year using those numbers!

 

My job: is in finance and economics but it's nothing to do with what you think it is, least of all anything to do with "talking up" the Thai economy or the Thai Baht. But it does have a lot to do with dealing in fact which is helpful when discussing these types of subjects on social network forums because generally there's so little of it to be seen in these places.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

25 minutes ago, Huckenfell said:

You have already forgotten the REDSHIRT protests a short few years ago then ?

 

Or the protests that started all the mess from the Yellow Shirts, that also closed the country's international airports, started a border conflict with Cambodia over a Khmer Hindu temple and led to a military coup and a judicial coup.

 

Of course all started because Sondhi's mate Viroj was removed from his post at KTB after some skullduggery. 

 

Thai lakorn at its best.

[Isaan sailor]

2 minutes ago, Trillian said:

No it's not OK to give up the past 4 years of export growth, the point is that it's not a major disaster however.

 

Your math: that's 19% of 67% (not of 100%), for three months out of the past six ONLY, you can't get to 20% for the entire year using those numbers!

 

My job: is in finance and economics but it's nothing to do with what you think it is, least of all anything to do with "talking up" the Thai economy or the Thai Baht. But it does have a lot to do with dealing in fact which is helpful when discussing these types of subjects on social network forums because generally there's so little of it to be seen in these places.

 

Government needs qualified economists.  Why not apply?  They sorely need some help.

[smedly]

7 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Until there is control by vaccine or treatment there is little hope.  

There is no tourist on the planet that can travel right now, like it or not.  When the high season starts in Thailand then it will finally sink in - it's not going to get better and of course the Chinese are not coming, full stop.  

and I also heard a rumour that the remaining so called stranded tourists are about to be given 3 weeks to leave Thailand - 7th Aug deadline with only a possible 7 day extension from the 31st July

 

so what little trade businesses have been getting in the last week or so is about to come to an abrupt end - If I was Immigration I'd be paying them to stay and keep spending

[kingstonkid]

35 minutes ago, Bkkthebest said:

Economic team resigning while the country is in for a recession??? Their heart is not with the country at all.

You may have that wrong.  Their heart may be with the country but they are being pressured to do what they know is wrong for the country

[Trillian]

11 minutes ago, 5633572526 said:

Government borrowed a trillion baht to provide stimulus. Why do that if you are sitting on piles of money??

Government actually borrowed THB 1.9 trill., that was THB 900 Bill from BOT's Foreign Currency Reserves (note: these are owned by BOT's, not government) and THB 1 trill., 80% of which was then covered by short term bond issuances in the domestic market and a further 20% covered by promissory notes. The annual budget was then trimmed back help finance the interest on the bond issuances.

[Mr Meeseeks]

1 minute ago, Isaan sailor said:

Government needs qualified economists.  Why not apply?  They sorely need some help.

They seem to have been doing a decent job with the Thai Baht continuing to ascend compared to the worthless USD, GBP, EUR etc.

 

You can't fault them for COVID and the resulting global economic disaster. 

[Mr Meeseeks]

1 minute ago, kingstonkid said:

You may have that wrong.  Their heart may be with the country but they are being pressured to do what they know is wrong for the country

Most Thai politicians have never shown that they care for anyone but themselves.

[Trillian]

4 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Government needs qualified economists.  Why not apply?  They sorely need some help.

I like my job and who I work for thank you, it's far more interesting, constructive and useful than anything in government.

[smedly]

10 hours ago, timendres said:

Prayuth basically said "There will be no further assistance for Rayong if we are forced to shut the place down".

If I was Thai I'd be asking him where all the money is they are supposed to have and don't - it went somewhere

 

and how many actually got the 3x 5k payments they claim to have given to 24 million people, I'm sure the money is on the books as being payed but who got it ?????

[Darkside Gray]

2 hours ago, Trillian said:

What 78% is this, only 11.5% comes from international tourism?

he said foreign sources not tourism.

[Mr Meeseeks]

3 minutes ago, smedly said:

and I also heard a rumour that the remaining so called stranded tourists are about to be given 3 weeks to leave Thailand - 7th Aug deadline with only a possible 7 day extension from the 31st July

 

so what little trade businesses have been getting in the last week or so is about to come to an abrupt end - If I was Immigration I'd be paying them to stay and keep spending

I understand your sentiments but what little they spend will be outweighed by the concerns of having thousands of illegals in the country that are not being properly tracked.

 

The Thais have spent millions on tracking software to control the movement of foreigners, including BMW smart cars with facial recognition. Mostly because of the large foreign workforce from neighbouring countries and as Thailand develops, it recognises that this workforce needs to be documented, pay taxes and work legally.

 

Westerners among the affected will be collateral damage but they should have had a proper visa if they were staying here long term.

 

The writing has been on the wall for a few years but the days of doing visa runs to stay in Thailand are now officially over. 

[Nanaplaza666]

I don't know , i have not seen 5555555 must have been the same reaction after getting hit by that plane . Walked right in to it but have not seen . 

[Trillian]

Just now, smedly said:

If I was Thai I'd be asking him where all the money is they are supposed to have and don't - it went somewhere

 

and how many actually got the 3x 5k payments they claim to have given to 24 million people, I'm sure the money is on the books as being payed but who got it ?????

Anyone who applied that was part of the official workforce (35 million people) and was making social security payments or their employer was. Those people who were working in the grey or black economies, working cash in hand and not paying SSC or tax, did not, which was why such a large number of people applied at the outset and then withdrew their applications.

[smedly]

5 hours ago, Creasy said:

What’s the problem?

 

Just exchange some guys that know things about the economy with some battle hardened, medal ladened generals.

-What could possibly go wrong?

that happened some 5 years ago, I think we are about to see the full extent of their incompetence and greed revealed very soon

[dogfish180]

Abandon ship!!!!! ????????

[smedly]

3 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

You're assuming that your home currency will not perform worse than the THB which sadly for GBP, USD & EUR etc... is unlikely given how much money printing / rate cutting has gone on. 

have you ever seen a 3rd world countries currency drop like a lead balloon - there are plenty of examples

[Mr Meeseeks]

3 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Anyone who applied that was part of the official workforce (35 million people) and was making social security payments or their employer was. Those people who were working in the grey or black economies, working cash in hand and not paying SSC or tax, did not, which was why such a large number of people applied at the outset and then withdrew their applications.

Correct.

[smedly]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The group is credited with running Thailand’s economy but has reportedly come under pressure from factions within the ruling Palang Pracharat Party.

it really is all falling apart right before us 

[smedly]

2 hours ago, Trillian said:

What 78% is this, only 11.5% comes from international tourism?

another beauty from our resident financial TVF expert 

 

dear oh dear oh dear

[Trillian]

9 minutes ago, smedly said:

another beauty from our resident financial TVF expert 

 

dear oh dear oh dear

Thank you for the accolade Smedly but I prefer to just be known as Trillian. And I already addressed that point earlier in the thread, did you overlook it? Oh no you didn't, you read it, you put one of your  little smileys on it, how cute.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Trillian

[smedly]

27 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Government needs qualified economists.  Why not apply?  They sorely need some help.

what ? - the very same people that brought us 2008 and profited from it to boot

 

no thanks - they should all be in jail

[Susco]

Anyone had a glance at the Baht exchange rate the last couple of days?

[smedly]

27 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

They seem to have been doing a decent job with the Thai Baht continuing to ascend compared to the worthless USD, GBP, EUR etc.

 

You can't fault them for COVID and the resulting global economic disaster. 

you think the Thai baht going up is good for Thailand ?

 

The flaw in your thinking right there

 

a strong baht only serves a few in Thailand and they don't rely on the economy for their increasing riches 

[smedly]

22 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Anyone who applied that was part of the official workforce (35 million people) and was making social security payments or their employer was. 

wrong - that was yet another entirely different group of people

[Trillian]

4 minutes ago, smedly said:

you think the Thai baht going up is good for Thailand ?

 

The flaw in your thinking right there

 

a strong baht only serves a few in Thailand and they don't rely on the economy for their increasing riches 

That sort of comment usually comes from people who are being squeezed by exchange rates and want somebody to blame for not making the right currency exchanges ten and fifteen years ago, ring any bells?

[Trillian]

7 minutes ago, Susco said:

Anyone had a glance at the Baht exchange rate the last couple of days?

The Pound is up but the USD Dollar Index is down.

 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPTHB-exchange-rate/