No respect! US deaths by population vs deaths by positive case count

[asiacurious]

He shows NO RESPECT to the title and has NO CLUE as to how to count cases.

 

 

[shdmn]

He's not a man.  He's a collection of personality disorders with legs, that have trouble walking down ramps.

Edited August 4, 2020 by shdmn

[asiacurious]

Here's the FULL interview, which I had not realized was posted to Youtube by HBO....
 

 

[samsensam]

he's been in the job four years and he's still hopeless, he can't coherently explain anything. but hey people voted for him and continue to support him. absolutely bizarre.

[chercheur888]

18 minutes ago, shdmn said:

He's not a man.  He's a collection of personality disorders with legs, that have trouble walking down ramps.

And he should fire the guy who buys his suits at Walmart as the trousers are always too short.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The two different statistics are legitimate measurements, but they mean very different things.

 

--The per capita death toll from CV (which probably gets more attention from experts) is the share of someplace's population that has died from the virus. As in, just how bad things are.

 

--The deaths as a proportion of CV cases is a measurement of how many people die among those who are infected with the CV.... That's not so much an indicator of how good or bad a country is doing, but moreso of how well a country's medical system and population is doing at keeping infected people alive.

 

And of course, Trump was lying/misleading with his own stats anyway, as is his custom:

 

Quote

 

The president produced a chart he said showed the U.S. was lower in the number of deaths per confirmed cases, though it only appeared to compare four data points. 

 

The U.S. does have a lower percentage of deaths per confirmed cases than several nations, including most members of the European Union. But the rate in the U.S. is higher than 98 other nations, including Australia, Japan and South Korea, according to data compiled by Statista.

 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/04/trump-tells-axios-rising-covid-19-death-toll-is-what-is/5579765002/

 

Quote

 

Swan asked how he could say that [the virus is "under control"] as the average number of daily deaths had climbed back up to over 1,000. 

"They are dying, that's true. And it is what it is," Trump said. "But that doesn't mean we aren't doing everything we can. It's under control, as much as you can control it." 

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[RichardColeman]

The problems with any statistics is that any can be twisted for your own personal agenda. My agenda is stop criticizing the countries reporting high figures that are being more honest and doing the testing they are supposed to be doing - if only belatedly

 

USA far as I can see has done 61,000,000 tests for 331,000,000 people, or say 20% of the population

Thailand has done 750,000 tests for 69,000,00 people, or say 1%

UK has - basically same size as Thailand - had done 17,000,000 test or 25% of population.

NO tests = pat on the back currently.

 

I'm no great fan of Trump, but the guy is probably going nuts (some will argue he is already) with all these BLM nutters, covid and related unemployment. Anyone thinking 'a new guy' will change anything , is madder than Trump

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Anyone thinking 'a new guy' will change anything , is madder than Trump

 

 

Anyone thinking anyone could have done a worse job than Trump at managing (or in his case mismanaging) the U.S. CV pandemic is madder than Trump.

 

He literally is without compare when it comes to flushing the U.S. down the toilet. And pretty much the whole world knows and can see it.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

36 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

USA far as I can see has done 61,000,000 tests for 331,000,000 people, or say 20% of the population

Thailand has done 750,000 tests for 69,000,00 people, or say 1%

UK has - basically same size as Thailand - had done 17,000,000 test or 25% of population.

 

From Johns Hopkins on your testing point:

 

Quote

 

The U.S. has conducted more COVID-19 tests than any other country. However, there is no expert consensus on a recommended target for the raw number of tests or even the rate of tests per capita – and the graph above demonstrates why using these statistics alone can be misleading.

 

In order for governments to identify new cases and effectively respond to the pandemic through tracing and treatment, testing programs should be scaled to the size of their epidemic, not the size of the population. In this visualization, you’ll see that several countries effectively controlled the spread of the virus through testing programs that had a far lower number of tests per capita than the U.S. Meanwhile, despite having the highest rate of tests per capita, the U.S. faces the largest outbreak in the world and new cases continue to trend upwards in many states.

Looking at the positivity rate (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) is the most reliable way to determine if a government is testing enough. A high rate of positive tests indicates a government is only testing the sickest patients who seek out medical attention and is not casting a wide enough net. The WHO has issued guidance stating that governments should see positivity rates below 5% for at least 14 days before relaxing social distancing measures.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/international-comparison

 

JH says the U.S. is currently 16th in the world in terms of having high CV test positive results, at 7.13% -- well above the WHO standard for relaxing social distancing, which Trump has already spurred across the country.

 

The same number also indicates the U.S. currently is NOT testing enough of its population relative to the outbreak, or the positivity stat would be lower.

 

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[marc26]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

 

 

I'm no great fan of Trump, but the guy is probably going nuts (some will argue he is already) with all these BLM nutters, covid and related unemployment. Anyone thinking 'a new guy' will change anything , is madder than Trump

 

All you have to do is look at most of the other Western developed countries and Asia to show that most have done better than Trump and that yes "a new guy" will chnage things

 

"A new guy" will actually listen to the silence, a new guy won't continue say "it will go away", a new guy won't refuse to accept facts

 

Sorry but you are madder than Trump if you can't see those easy comparisons..........

 

I live less than 50 miles from the US border, and we have been basically back to normal for almost 2 months and if anything arises, they are all over it.

It's called serious and good leadership, it actually makes a difference............

[scammed]

15 minutes ago, marc26 said:

"A new guy" will actually listen to the silence,

is that like, navel gazing ?

 

to shut down a large part of economy is poor leadership,

its called a knee jerk reaction

[asiacurious]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Anyone thinking anyone could have done a worse job than Trump at managing (or in his case mismanaging) the U.S. CV pandemic is madder than Trump.

 

He literally is without compare when it comes to flushing the U.S. down the toilet. And pretty much the whole world knows and can see it.

 

If Trump loses in November, will the world's view of the US change?  Or will the US continue to be seen as people now see it?  

 

11 minutes ago, scammed said:

is that like, navel gazing ?

 

to shut down a large part of economy is poor leadership,

its called a knee jerk reaction

 

It seems like Covid shuts down economies regardless of the actions taken.  Shut everything down to protect the health of your people and the economy will suffer.  Refuse to shut down to keep things open and the economy will still suffer and you'll have millions sick, hundreds of thousands dead, hospitals overwhelmed, schools closed....

 

And which is the knee jerk reaction in this case?  Shutting down based on what the science is saying about a virus, or insisting that nothing is wrong based on... well, nothing actually?

[scammed]

54 minutes ago, asiacurious said:

 

If Trump loses in November, will the world's view of the US change?  Or will the US continue to be seen as people now see it?  

 

 

It seems like Covid shuts down economies regardless of the actions taken.  Shut everything down to protect the health of your people and the economy will suffer.  Refuse to shut down to keep things open and the economy will still suffer and you'll have millions sick, hundreds of thousands dead, hospitals overwhelmed, schools closed....

 

And which is the knee jerk reaction in this case?  Shutting down based on what the science is saying about a virus, or insisting that nothing is wrong based on... well, nothing actually?

sweden is fully operational and in fact gdp went up a bit

at covid outbreak. its going to contract due to rest of the world knee jerk reaction and sweden being an exporter will be affected as the rest of the world suffer economic famine

from the lunacy that has taken hold.

you could say an almost world wide self inflicted economic trauma,

and an immoral one at that since the 

bill is sent to future generations

Edited August 4, 2020 by scammed

[asiacurious]

10 hours ago, scammed said:

sweden is fully operational and in fact gdp went up a bit

at covid outbreak. its going to contract due to rest of the world knee jerk reaction and sweden being an exporter will be affected as the rest of the world suffer economic famine

from the lunacy that has taken hold.

you could say an almost world wide self inflicted economic trauma,

and an immoral one at that since the 

bill is sent to future generations

Hmmm....  I'm not really up on Sweden, but a quick search regarding Sweden's outbreak turns up....

 

Quote

However, on a per-capita basis, Sweden far outpaces its Scandinavian neighbors in COVID deaths, with 567 deaths per million people compared with Denmark's 106 deaths per million, Finland's 59 deaths per million, and Norway's 47 deaths per million. The Swedish figure is closer to Italy's 581 deaths per million.

[SNIP]

The Swedish Public Health Agency has not openly stated that herd immunity was its goal, though many suspect this was the intention. Tegnell told reporters last week he thought the recent trends indicated that immunity was now widespread in the country. But with rates of antibody positivity around 10%, that seems impossible. (Officials at the agency did not respond to MedPage Today's request for comment.)

Source: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812

 

In terms of handling the virus, it seems like Sweden is doing a little better than some but quite a bit worse than others, in terms of death.

 

Economically there is this....

 

Quote

Sweden’s GDP increased by 0.1% in the first quarter, when seasonally adjusted and compared to the final three months of 2019. The median forecasters in a Reuters poll of economists had expected to see a 0.6% contraction on a quarterly basis.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

 

Sweden is indeed doing better than other countries economically, in some cases quite a bit better.  The forecast is for a big hit...

 

Quote

In June, the OECD’s biannual Economic Outlook summary put the full-year GDP growth forecast for Sweden between -7.8% and -6.7%, depending on the severity of a potential second wave. It puts Denmark slightly ahead with between -7.1% and -5.8%, with estimates for the UK (between -14% and -11%) and the U.S. (-8.5% or -7.3%) noticeably worse.

The European Commission is slightly less dismal, estimating a eurozone GDP decline for the year of 8.7%, but Sweden (-5.3%) and Denmark (-5.25%) as the second and third best-performing member states after Poland (-4.5%). 

Source: https://www.aier.org/article/the-economic-performance-of-coronavirus-sweden/

 

But not as big a hit as others.

 

I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of what the GDP cost per life lost is for each country is.  Or if anyone will do that.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 hours ago, asiacurious said:

Hmmm....  I'm not really up on Sweden, but a quick search regarding Sweden's outbreak turns up....

 

Source: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812

 

 

 

Johns Hopkins per capita CV death data places Sweden, with 5744 official CV deaths, as having the 8th highest CV fatality rate in the world, even higher/worse than the U.S.  Sweden's current rate is 56.41 deaths per 100K population. The U.S. rate is 47.50.

 

Chart ranked by CV deaths per 100K population:

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

Not exactly a ranking to be proud of...

 

BTW, if I'm doing the math right, if we were to apply Sweden's per capita CV death rate to the U.S. population, instead of currently having 155,000+ dead from CV, the U.S. right now would instead have about 186,000 CV deaths. That would be about 30,000 more U.S. deaths than the U.S. actually has thus far....  So that's what the Sweden model would get you.

 

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Logosone]

40 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Johns Hopkins per capita CV death data places Sweden, with 5744 official CV deaths, as having the 8th highest CV fatality rate in the world, even higher/worse than the U.S.  Sweden's current rate is 56.41 deaths per 100K population. The U.S. rate is 47.50.

 

Chart ranked by CV deaths per 100K population:

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

Not exactly a ranking to be proud of...

 

BTW, if I'm doing the math right, if we were to apply Sweden's per capita CV death rate to the U.S. population, instead of currently having 155,000+ dead from CV, the U.S. right now would instead have more than 186,000 CV deaths. That would be about 30,000 more U.S. deaths than the U.S. actually has thus far....  So that's what the Sweden model would get you.

 

 

That's BS statistics. Sweden has a very low number of absolute cases, about 0.05% of its population, they're doing perfectly fine.

 

Of course if you compare Sweden, with a tiny population to countries with a huge population using "per capita" figures that hugely distorts the numbers.

 

It's like Cayman Islands has one of the world's most powerful economies because it has a huge GDP per capita. It's nonsense.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Logosone

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 hours ago, Logosone said:

That's BS statistics. Sweden has a very low number of absolute cases, about 0.5% of its population, they're doing perfectly fine.

 

 

 

About 0.78% (81,000) of Sweden's population has been diagnosed with confirmed COVID cases...  And I wouldn't call 5744 resulting deaths and a per capita CV death rate among the highest in the world as doing "perfectly fine."  Their case fatality rate (deaths among those infected) is also more than double that of the U.S.

 

For a country with a population exceeding 10 million, per capita measurements are a perfectly appropriate and reasonable basis for comparison.

 

But for a similar per capita deaths comparison with other more like countries:

 

Sweden 56.41

Netherlands 35.8

Switzerland 23.26

Luxembourg 19.42

Denmark 10.63

Norway 4.82

 

Sweden isn't looking so good, notwithstanding your diversions.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, asiacurious said:

 

I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of what the GDP cost per life lost is for each country is.  Or if anyone will do that.

They have actually done that for the UK:

 

The cost of lockdown on Britain's economy 'has not been worth the lives saved', study claims

 

So lockdown saved 4.4million quality years of life – each valued at £30,000 by NHS guidelines – that the pandemic would otherwise have erased.

 

This means the value of the years of life saved is £132billion, according to the study. But public sector debt is at nearly £2trillion, ballooning larger than the size of the economy in May for the first time in more than 50 years.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8555171/The-cost-lockdown-Britains-economy-not-worth-lives-saved-study-claims.html

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

About 0.78% (81,000) of Sweden's population has been diagnosed with confirmed COVID cases...  And I wouldn't call 5744 resulting deaths and a per capita CV death rate among the highest in the world as doing "perfectly fine."  Their case fatality rate (deaths among those infected) is also more than double that of the U.S.

 

For a country with a population exceeding 10 million, per capita measurements are a perfectly appropriate and reasonable basis for comparison.

 

 

You're switching to cases now, we were talking about deaths, a much more reliable indicator. In fact deaths in Sweden are only 0.05617 % of population. So a miniscule figure in proportion and very small in absolute terms. Barely noticeable in Sweden. The country is doing perfectly fine.

 

And, no, again it is not appropriate to compare Sweden with gigantic populations like the US, obviously that distorts the figures. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

And, no, again it is not appropriate to compare Sweden with gigantic populations like the US, obviously that distorts the figures. 

 

Per capita (per 100K population) CV deaths with other more like countries:

 

Sweden 56.41

Netherlands 35.8

Switzerland 23.26

Luxembourg 19.42

Denmark 10.63

Norway 4.82

 

Sweden isn't looking so good, notwithstanding your diversions.

 

And by comparison, Sweden has already suffered more than twice the number of deaths from CV than it suffered in all of WW II.... And even adjusted for population growth since WW II, still more CV deaths on a relative basis.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#Total_deaths_by_country

 

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Per capita (per 100K population) CV deaths with other more like countries:

 

Sweden 56.41

Netherlands 35.8

Switzerland 23.26

Luxembourg 19.42

Denmark 10.63

Norway 4.82

 

Sweden isn't looking so good, notwithstanding your diversions.

Because you're being selective. Why would you not put Belgium in your list? In reality

 

San Marino

Belgium

UK

Andorra

Spain 

Peru

Italy

 

All have higher deaths per 1m inhabitants. Sweden is doing fine.

 

And btw, notice how San Marino tops the list because it has a miniscule population, notice the distortion which population size can cause.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Logosone

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 hours ago, Logosone said:

Because you're being selective. In reality

 

San Marino

Belgium

UK

 

You wanted comparable countries... San Marino with a population of about 33,000 and the UK with 67 million people hardly belong in the same comparison group as Sweden and the similar/regional countries I listed.  You're stretching a long way and still failing to make a legitimate point.

 

Sweden being in the top 10 for per capita CV deaths is not "doing fine".

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Logosone]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

You wanted comparable countries... San Marino with a population of about 33,000 and the UK with 67 million people hardly belong in the same comparison group as Sweden and the similar/regional countries I listed.  You're stretching a long way and still failing to make a legitimate point.

Not at all, I merely pointed out that you left out Belgium from your list for some reason, and a whole lot of other countries.

 

Sweden does not have the worst death figure even when relative to population, it is doing perfectly fine.

 

A figure 0.05% for deaths is barely noticeable in Sweden, with its small population. You're stretching beyond belief to try and convince someone that 0.05% of deaths is somehow a terrible figure. It's not in the case of Sweden.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 hours ago, Logosone said:

Not at all, I merely pointed out that you left out Belgium from your list for some reason, and a whole lot of other countries.

Yes, Sweden is better than Belgium, which has one of the highest per cap death rates for CV.

 

15 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

Sweden does not have the worst death figure even when relative to population, it is doing perfectly fine.

I never said Sweden had the worst CV death rate. I said it was in the top 10 in the world, which it is.

 

15 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

A figure 0.05% for deaths is barely noticeable in Sweden, with its small population. You're stretching beyond belief to try and convince someone that 0.05% of deaths is somehow a terrible figure. It's not in the case of Sweden.

 

Sweden has already suffered more than twice the number of deaths from CV than it suffered in all of WW II.... And even adjusted for population growth since WW II, still more CV deaths on a relative basis.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#Total_deaths_by_country

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Sweden's closest neighboring countries:

per capita CV death rates:

 

Sweden 56.41

 

Finland 5.96

Denmark 10.63

Norway 4.82

 

Oh ya... Sweden's doing FINE!!!

 

 

 

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Yes, Sweden is better than Belgium, which has one of the highest per cap death rates for CV.

 

I never said Sweden had the worst CV death rate. I said it was in the top 10 in the world, which it is.

 

 

Sweden has already suffered more than twice the number of deaths from CV than it suffered in all of WW II.... And even adjusted for population growth since WW II, still more CV deaths on a relative basis.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#Total_deaths_by_country

 

I realise you're trying your hardest to portray Sweden as having terrible issues, more deaths than WWII, well hardly surprising given that Sweden was neutral in WWII, lol. Sweden did not fight in WWII.

 

First you try to compare Sweden to the USA, then you try to make a list where you purposefully leave out countries that are worse off, like Belgium, 

 

Then you try to portray a figure of 0.05% of population as a massive number "WORSE THAN WWII", come on, it's just not credible. Sweden didn't even fight in WWII of course it had low casualty figures in WWII.

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Sweden's closest neighboring countries:

per capita CV death rates:

 

Sweden 56.41

 

Finland 5.96

Denmark 10.63

Norway 4.82

 

Oh ya... Sweden's doing FINE!!!

 

 

 

Yah, because Sweden didn't test as diligently as its neighbours and did not secure the elderly care homes.

 

However, overall there is no crisis in Sweden, no massive deaths, hospitals are not overwhelmed and things are just fine. A figure of 0.05% results in a very low number for Sweden with its tiny population.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The facts speak for themselves... And all your diversions and excuses don't change them.

Done with you:

 

 

 

[farang51]

42 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Not at all, I merely pointed out that you left out Belgium from your list for some reason, and a whole lot of other countries.

 

A figure 0.05% for deaths is barely noticeable in Sweden, with its small population. You're stretching beyond belief to try and convince someone that 0.05% of deaths is somehow a terrible figure. It's not in the case of Sweden.

Belgium counts the deaths from the virus different than other countries, so they do not belong in a comparison. (actually, their numbers are probably closer to the reel numbers, as most countries undercount the deaths)

 

You keep referring to the deaths of the total population and mention that 0.05% is barely noticeable. By that account, it is barely noticeable in any country. I wonder how many deaths a country would have to have from the virus before you would deem it too many?

[Logosone]

28 minutes ago, farang51 said:

Belgium counts the deaths from the virus different than other countries, so they do not belong in a comparison. (actually, their numbers are probably closer to the reel numbers, as most countries undercount the deaths)

 

You keep referring to the deaths of the total population and mention that 0.05% is barely noticeable. By that account, it is barely noticeable in any country. I wonder how many deaths a country would have to have from the virus before you would deem it too many?

It's barely noticeable in the case of Sweden because Sweden has a tiny population and 0.05% of a tiny population is a very small figure.

 

And either you compare properly if you use per capita figures and you include all countries or you don't do it at all. You don't certainly exclude certain countries simply because you know they have worse figures than Sweden, like Belgium, just because the whole intention is to portray Sweden as being in crisis, when it is obviously not.

 

Sweden is perfectly fine. A figure of 0.05% of population, in the case of Sweden, is a very low number of people.

 

I am well aware how Belgium counts but of course you are completely wrong, most European countries do NOT undercount, quite the contrary. Germany counts everyone who tested positive as having died of Covid19, even when they died of something else. Same with the UK. Belgium is extreme in this regard, but most European countries overcount. Including Sweden.