Sonthi warns crisis likely in May

[ColPyat]

Cheers krab Khun Sriracha John. It's great to know that no one's taken them seriously.

And Colpyat, I think there's a fine line between constructive exchange of different ideas and asking the PM to step down on a pathetic and ridiculous ground.

You are right, given that the present government came to power through an illegal coup it surly is a negligible reason for asking the PM to step down, having ignored the requests of investigating the coup leader's two registered marriages. That definitely is only a tiny little bit of breaking the law.

They should have requested the PM and the junta to step down for making a coup.

Still though, what sort of "unity" to you propose? That every Thai has to agree with the coup suddenly, and forgets that military take overs were illegal under the then valid constitution?

That's OK with me then, but then please don't put me in jail when i decide to break the law as well.

[ThaiGoon]

Cheers krab Khun Sriracha John. It's great to know that no one's taken them seriously.

And Colpyat, I think there's a fine line between constructive exchange of different ideas and asking the PM to step down on a pathetic and ridiculous ground.

You are right, given that the present government came to power through an illegal coup it surly is a negligible reason for asking the PM to step down, having ignored the requests of investigating the coup leader's two registered marriages. That definitely is only a tiny little bit of breaking the law.

They should have requested the PM and the junta to step down for making a coup.

Still though, what sort of "unity" to you propose? That every Thai has to agree with the coup suddenly, and forgets that military take overs were illegal under the then valid constitution?

That's OK with me then, but then please don't put me in jail when i decide to break the law as well.

It's fine to press the PM to investigate the so called illegal double marriage registration of the coup leader, but asking the PM to step down because he hasn't done it is just pathetically ridiculous. It's dirty and stupid politics pure and simple.

And the type of unity that I'm proposing is the same one that His Majesty the King himself sort of alluded to when he talked to the judges the other day. Under this kind of political climate, it's not healthy for people to do what White Dove group did to create further chaos. We need more stability until the next general election. It's not gonna do the country any good for the PM to step down right now or to see (political) masses coming out in protests. Everyone should have the best interests of the country in mind, not theirs. And right now the best interests of the country are to have peaceful resolutions to the constitution draft and the party dissolution case, not the stupid attempt to oust the PM because he hasn't looked into an illegal marriage.

Edited May 29, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[sriracha john]

Indeed you're right TG... there are far more serious considerations on Thailand's plate right now and these white dovers don't have a clue as to what they are.

[John K]

A bit of a reminder, if Thaksin is in a very public place today, expect some sort of trouble as that is his style to show he is far away and not connected.

Edited May 29, 2007 by John K

[pnustedt]

Everyone should have the best interests of the country in mind, not theirs. And right now the best interests of the country are to have peaceful resolutions to the constitution draft and the party dissolution case, not the stupid attempt to oust the PM because he hasn't looked into an illegal marriage.

"Everyone" who has the interests of the future of Thailand at heart has a duty to express their opinion and to protect their representatives whom they elected. If they are being denied the facility to do so through the media or ballot box, the only recourse they have to do so is in the streets. It is this illegal puppet government appointed by the military junta which is dividing the country.

[ThaiGoon]

If they are being denied the facility to do so through the media or ballot box, the only recourse they have to do so is in the streets.

If you can read Thai, try checking out the Rajdumnoen (spelling) subforum on Pantip.com. It's working, and people are talking. You will see how free people are at discussing politics. Not to mention a couple of other Thai discussion boards I've been to. To say that people are being denied all the facilities to have political discussions is just absurd. Besides, I don't really believe that people who wanna go out in the streets wanna do so because they sincerely wanna have construcive public political debates anyway.

One last thing, trying to link what this White Dove group is trying to do to free political speech is just silly as well.

[hammered]

Cheers krab Khun Sriracha John. It's great to know that no one's taken them seriously.

And Colpyat, I think there's a fine line between constructive exchange of different ideas and asking the PM to step down on a pathetic and ridiculous ground.

You are right, given that the present government came to power through an illegal coup it surly is a negligible reason for asking the PM to step down, having ignored the requests of investigating the coup leader's two registered marriages. That definitely is only a tiny little bit of breaking the law.

They should have requested the PM and the junta to step down for making a coup.

Still though, what sort of "unity" to you propose? That every Thai has to agree with the coup suddenly, and forgets that military take overs were illegal under the then valid constitution?

That's OK with me then, but then please don't put me in jail when i decide to break the law as well.

It's fine to press the PM to investigate the so called illegal double marriage registration of the coup leader, but asking the PM to step down because he hasn't done it is just pathetically ridiculous. It's dirty and stupid politics pure and simple.

And the type of unity that I'm proposing is the same one that His Majesty the King himself sort of alluded to when he talked to the judges the other day. Under this kind of political climate, it's not healthy for people to do what White Dove group did to create further chaos. We need more stability until the next general election. It's not gonna do the country any good for the PM to step down right now or to see (political) masses coming out in protests. Everyone should have the best interests of the country in mind, not theirs. And right now the best interests of the country are to have peaceful resolutions to the constitution draft and the party dissolution case, not the stupid attempt to oust the PM because he hasn't looked into an illegal marriage.

The type of unity we may get over this decision is the unity of apathy. Writers in both the Post and Nation have alluded to large numbers not being excited over the verdict whichever way it goes. In fact one even questions if the demos will be that big today. I havent checked the Thai press yet for this matter. Anyway all speculation now. We dont have long to wait.

[ThaiGoon]

That's good news Hammered. SET index is going up as well. Perhaps nothing serious will happen after the verdict.

[Plus]

There's only a few hours of May left.

If the large PTV rally tonight doesn't materialise, just like taxis with red flages and headlights on, and if nothing big happens, shall we all watch this thread for Mobi's harakiri?

There still could be trouble, though, but the most scary moment has passed - the verdict, and it passed peacefully.

Perhaps the generals intimidated the public with their Pitak plans, but in hindsight it might be the case of "better safe than sorry".

[ThaiGoon]

There's only a few hours of May left.

If the large PTV rally tonight doesn't materialise, just like taxis with red flages and headlights on, and if nothing big happens, shall we all watch this thread for Mobi's harakiri?

[younghusband]

There's only a few hours of May left.

If the large PTV rally tonight doesn't materialise, just like taxis with red flages and headlights on, and if nothing big happens, shall we all watch this thread for Mobi's harakiri?

There still could be trouble, though, but the most scary moment has passed - the verdict, and it passed peacefully.

Perhaps the generals intimidated the public with their Pitak plans, but in hindsight it might be the case of "better safe than sorry".

There's not the slightest chance of trouble and there never was.The threats were largely dreamed up by the military leadership.The national mood is one of restrained irritation,puzzlement,resignation and bitterness but not violently angry.

Some of these brutish generals are too dense to understand enlightened self interest but the more thoughtful will be suggesting a spirit of unity and compromise, stressing what unites Thais rather than divides them.I'm sure this is the wish of HM as well.They know there is every chance the constitution will be rejected if they play their few strong cards badly.The generals want, as Korn Chatikavanij has pointed out, a political class they can dominate and by arranging for the dissolution of the TRT they think they have achieved this - even at the cost of banning TRT senior people who might have been malleable.Take my word for it:in a year or so the court decision will be seen for the scummy and shabby thing it is.

As Chaturon Chaisang, a decent TRT senior figure has said, "What we did is like breaking a window of a house, and then being prosecuted by the people who burnt the whole house down".

If Abhisit eventually emerges after the elections as PM, he could be the generals' worst nightmare - a credible, clean and well educated leader with international credibility and access to international decision making (previously denied to all Thai leaders except to the now slightly demented Anand).In other words they may see Abhisit as a puppet they can manipulate but end up having their influence destroyed by him.But I may be too optimistic .....Abhisit has virtually no political base and lacks the common touch.Ah well, better get canvassing Khun Ab and leave the old Etonian tie at home.

Edited May 31, 2007 by younghusband

[hammered]

There's only a few hours of May left.

If the large PTV rally tonight doesn't materialise, just like taxis with red flages and headlights on, and if nothing big happens, shall we all watch this thread for Mobi's harakiri?

There still could be trouble, though, but the most scary moment has passed - the verdict, and it passed peacefully.

Perhaps the generals intimidated the public with their Pitak plans, but in hindsight it might be the case of "better safe than sorry".

There's not the slightest chance of trouble and there never was.The threats were largely dreamed up by the military leadership.The national mood is one of restrained irritation,puzzlement,resignation and bitterness but not violently angry.

Some of these brutish generals are too dense to understand enlightened self interest but the more thoughtful will be suggesting a spirit of unity and compromise, stressing what unites Thais rather than divides them.I'm sure this is the wish of HM as well.They know there is every chance the constitution will be rejected if they play their few strong cards badly.The generals want, as Korn Chatikavanij has pointed out, a political class they can dominate and by arranging for the dissolution of the TRT they think they have achieved this - even at the cost of banning TRT senior people who might have been malleable.Take my word for it:in a year or so the court decision will be seen for the scummy and shabby thing it is.

As Chaturon Chaisang, a decent TRT senior figure has said, "What we did is like breaking a window of a house, and then being prosecuted by the people who burnt the whole house down".

If Abhisit eventually emerges after the elections as PM, he could be the generals' worst nightmare - a credible, clean and well educated leader with international credibility and access to international decision making (previously denied to all Thai leaders except to the now slightly demented Anand).In other words they may see Abhisit as a puppet they can manipulate but end up having their influence destroyed by him.But I may be too optimistic .....Abhisit has virtually no political base and lacks the common touch.Ah well, better get canvassing Khun Ab and leave the old Etonian tie at home.

I agree with you feelings on the military and Abhisit and the Dems and Thai history would seem to suggest a bad relationship too. I still in fact wonder if the court decision was not the one the generals actually wanted, or most of them that is.

[younghusband]

And just a follow on from my earlier post, the likelihood of Korn Chatikavanit as Minister of Finance.Ok no political base to speak of outside the Bangkok upper middle class but it will be a lot tougher than the generals imagine to push Abhisit/Korn around particularly if the Democrats have a credible electoral mandate.Anyway fingers crossed.

Personally I would like to see the coup leaders' amnesty cancelled (if there is one then), the ringleaders brought to justice and punished for their criminal and treasonable act which has set back the cause of democracy in Thailand by at least a decade.And God forgive their apologists on this forum.The crimes of Thaksin were no excuse.

[jdinasia]

And just a follow on from my earlier post, the likelihood of Korn Chatikavanit as Minister of Finance.Ok no political base to speak of outside the Bangkok upper middle class but it will be a lot tougher than the generals imagine to push Abhisit/Korn around particularly if the Democrats have a credible electoral mandate.Anyway fingers crossed.

Personally I would like to see the coup leaders' amnesty cancelled (if there is one then), the ringleaders brought to justice and punished for their criminal and treasonable act which has set back the cause of democracy in Thailand by at least a decade.And God forgive their apologists on this forum.The crimes of Thaksin were no excuse.

lol

actually Thaksin's actions made some kind of outside action mandatory!

I would have rather seen something other than a coup ... but as coups go this one aint so bad

Edited May 31, 2007 by jdinasia

[correct]

is this thread going to get closed in another 6 1/2 hours when May is finally over?????

[blaze]

And just a follow on from my earlier post, the likelihood of Korn Chatikavanit as Minister of Finance.Ok no political base to speak of outside the Bangkok upper middle class but it will be a lot tougher than the generals imagine to push Abhisit/Korn around particularly if the Democrats have a credible electoral mandate.Anyway fingers crossed.

Personally I would like to see the coup leaders' amnesty cancelled (if there is one then), the ringleaders brought to justice and punished for their criminal and treasonable act which has set back the cause of democracy in Thailand by at least a decade.And God forgive their apologists on this forum.The crimes of Thaksin were no excuse.

lol

actually Thaksin's actions made some kind of outside action mandatory!

I would have rather seen something other than a coup ... but as coups go this one aint so bad

Why would you have preferred not to have had a coup? Don't you trust the army to know what's best for the country? Just because every single democracy on earth abhors the notion of coups- why should that be applied to Thailand? Sure- a few military dictatorships in some other countries have been known to lie- you know- we're just here to beat back the commies then- the country's yours again- or here to achieve national reconciliation, or here till the people are mature enough to agree with our agenda- but hey- the Thai military has a history of self sacrifice in its historic mission to serve the people. So why the reservations?

[John K]

Well does anyone care to predict where Thailand would be today if they was not a coup. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to think it would be far worse off than today.

[blaze]

Well does anyone care to predict where Thailand would be today if they was not a coup. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to think it would be far worse off than today.

It is not today, or this month or even this year, that many are concerned about. It's where would Thailand have been in ten years without this coup. What will this coup mean for Thai politics in the future.

Edited May 31, 2007 by blaze

[jdinasia]

Well does anyone care to predict where Thailand would be today if they was not a coup. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to think it would be far worse off than today.

It is not today, or this month or even this year, that many are concerned about. It's where would Thailand have been in ten years without this coup. What will this coup mean for Thai politics in the future.

It wouldn't have been a Democracy in 10 years if MrT had been in power for another year or 2. It wasn't even a Democracy before he dissolved parlaiment! A Democracy has checks and balances ... what we had in Thailand was a man that was elected that made himself into a dictator by getting rid of checks and balances.

[chownah]

is this thread going to get closed in another 6 1/2 hours when May is finally over?????

No, then the retrospectives start....or....more likely the military dicatatorship will have to hurry to create a crisis within the next 6 1/2 hours (less by now)....this will give them reason to linger a while longer.......................

[Plus]

Younghusband, if you are right and generals are simply paranoid, why would this thread exist in the first place?

I don't know how credible PTV threats were but better safe than sorry. Could they have organised hired demonstrations with tens of thousands of people (and elephants) on the streets if not for the military/police presense? Very possible indeed.

Are people with genuine grievances allowed to show their disapproval of the court verdict? Yes. Latest report puts the number of protesters at 400 but must be more by now.

Another thing - generals and Abhisit have far more in common than you think, IMO. They both put the country and the justice above all else, including pretence of having democracy. They will always work things out.

Also the generals have no interest in actually running the country, they know by now that it's an extremely difficult and ungrateul job.

[Abrak]

Well does anyone care to predict where Thailand would be today if they was not a coup. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to think it would be far worse off than today.

I find this comment extraordinary.

There is no way, in my opinion, the country, its politics or economy would be in the mess it is today, had it not been for the coup. Thaksin would have gone anyways - thats how democracies work. After a while they throw out the bad guys...

Any democracy - Thaksin or no Thaksin - is better than a military government.

[Plus]

Any democracy - Thaksin or no Thaksin - is better than a military government.

Possibly, it was not a democracy, though.

I did some calcualations a couple of months ago - all Thaksin's populist policies of keeping his voter base happy were only a fraction of profits he made with power the voters gave him back . It was a very good investment scheme, and he invested government's money, not his own.

The only way it was going to stop was if the country went completely bankrupt, maybe years, maybe decades from now.

Also the damage to the rule of law with his mockery of justice would have been far more serious and long lasting than one year under junta's (that restored justice, in the eyes of many).

Without justice any society is doomed, democracy or not.

[John K]

Well does anyone care to predict where Thailand would be today if they was not a coup. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to think it would be far worse off than today.

I find this comment extraordinary.

There is no way, in my opinion, the country, its politics or economy would be in the mess it is today, had it not been for the coup. Thaksin would have gone anyways - thats how democracies work. After a while they throw out the bad guys...

Any democracy - Thaksin or no Thaksin - is better than a military government.

To agree with your statement I would first need to know what elements of a democracy were still in place September 18, 2006. That refers to substance and not name. Once that is identified then do the same September 18 for 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 and 2001. I think with that there will be enough frames of this story board in place to help enlighten the most reserved pessimist about the present situation.

I think you will find something that looks like a Thanksgiving turkey the day after Thanksgiving and Thaksin was doing the carving.

[ColPyat]

I did some calcualations a couple of months ago - all Thaksin's populist policies of keeping his voter base happy were only a fraction of profits he made with power the voters gave him back . It was a very good investment scheme, and he invested government's money, not his own.

Care to give us the figures of your calculations, and on which sources they are based upon?

[Siripon]

Well does anyone care to predict where Thailand would be today if they was not a coup. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to think it would be far worse off than today.

I find this comment extraordinary.

There is no way, in my opinion, the country, its politics or economy would be in the mess it is today, had it not been for the coup. Thaksin would have gone anyways - thats how democracies work. After a while they throw out the bad guys...

Any democracy - Thaksin or no Thaksin - is better than a military government.

The above comment is extraordinary.

I love the way people use the word 'democracy' as if it's a magic potion all by itself.

The trouble is it assumes an awful lot in Westerners' eyes, one of the main tenets of which is accountability, and on that score Thaksin scored zero.

'Thaksin would have gone anyway'! Yes, he was preparing to answer all the allegations made against him when he was so cruelly overthrown!

lol.

[John K]

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Supporters of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra protested on Thursday against the court-ordered dissolution of their party and the political banishment of its leaders which threaten more turmoil.

Some 2,000 people rallied peacefully near Government House a day after the ruling, shouting slogans against the coup leaders who ousted Thaksin in a bloodless putsch last year.

"Democracy Back, Thaksin Come Back," read one banner held by a protester wearing a "CNS Get Out" headband, referring to the name the generals gave themselves, the Council for National Security.

"Although Thai Rak Thai has been banned, we still love Thaksin," Jatuporn Prompan, a rally organizer and former party spokesman, told the crowd from the stage.

"The Constitutional Tribunal has ruled that Thai Rak Thai has committed a crime that was hostile to democracy. But who will make that ruling on the CNS which toppled a democratically elected government?," Jatuporn said.

Earlier, Thaksin, who is living in London, issued a statement urging his supporters to accept the ruling by the Constitutional Tribunal, which found his party guilty of two charges of fraud in last year's inconclusive poll, later annulled by the courts.

He also pressed the generals to speed up elections promised for December. Analysts say the plan could be derailed by unrest.

"I would urge everyone to stay calm and don't make any moves," said the billionaire telecoms tycoon whose Thai Rak Thai (Thais Loves Thais) party was the first in Thai history to win an absolute parliamentary majority.

There has been no violence since the ruling, but police set up extra checkpoints across the city of 10 million people.

"Nothing has happened yet, but we are worried that a third party could cause trouble," the Bangkok police chief, Lieutenant-General Adisorn Nonsee, told reporters.

The rival Democrat Party, Thailand's oldest party but no match for Thaksin's machine in the vote-rich countryside, was found not guilty of breaking election laws, and should now be in pole position for the promised December election.

"BYE BYE THAI RAK THAI"

The rulings, greeted by the English-language Bangkok Post with a banner headline reading "BYE BYE THAI RAK THAI," would "reshape and realign" Thailand's electoral landscape, political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak said.

"The military will come into an alliance with the surviving politicians and this alliance will be anchored with the Democrat Party," he said.

"The military has to protect itself, it has to watch its back, it has to have some cooperation from the politicians after the election because the military will be out of power."

But he said this new alliance could not ignore the millions of rural and urban poor who lionized Thaksin, in part for populist policies such as cheap health care and loans.

"If they are alienated, if the military and surviving politicians and the interim government neglect them, don't pay attention to their needs and grievances that Thai Rak Thai addressed, then there will be trouble ahead," he said.

INVESTORS SOOTHED FOR NOW

The absence of any immediate unrest soothed investors who bid up Thai funds in overnight trade. Thaifund Inc rose 3.1 percent in New York, while Thai Capital Fund climbed 1.9 percent.

Thailand's main bourse was closed for a national holiday on Thursday, but it hit a 5-month high on Wednesday as the risk of immediate violence diminished.

But some analysts expected the market to slip when it resumes trading on Friday amid concern that there is still considerable potential for trouble.

A referendum on a new constitution is due in September. Critics call it undemocratic, shifting power from politicians to bureaucrats, and it could turn into a plebiscite on the coup and the banishment of Thai Rak Thai.

"I think anti-coup protests will intensify and should make it more difficult to pass the new constitution," said Sukhum Nualskul, a retired professor and political commentator.

Without its senior leadership, including the charismatic Thaksin, it may be hard for Thai Rak Thai to reform under a new name and get ready in time for the December polls.

"Whether the parties would be sufficiently organized for December polls is debatable," said Elizabeth Mills, Asia analyst for London-based Global Insight.

[SiamSquare123]

jdinasia,

you should read more books and articles about thailand to educate yourself.

[jdinasia]

jdinasia,

you should read more books and articles about thailand to educate yourself.

LOL

:D :D :bah:

[Abrak]

Well does anyone care to predict where Thailand would be today if they was not a coup. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to think it would be far worse off than today.

I find this comment extraordinary.

There is no way, in my opinion, the country, its politics or economy would be in the mess it is today, had it not been for the coup. Thaksin would have gone anyways - thats how democracies work. After a while they throw out the bad guys...

Any democracy - Thaksin or no Thaksin - is better than a military government.

The above comment is extraordinary.

I love the way people use the word 'democracy' as if it's a magic potion all by itself.

The trouble is it assumes an awful lot in Westerners' eyes, one of the main tenets of which is accountability, and on that score Thaksin scored zero.

'Thaksin would have gone anyway'! Yes, he was preparing to answer all the allegations made against him when he was so cruelly overthrown!

lol.

And maybe you should put a little more faith in the concept of democracy before you support a bunch of geriatrics marching in and throwing it out of the window.

Democracies elect the wrong people sometimes but at the end of the day they get rid of them when their time is up.

While you are quick to condemn Thaksin's corruptions, at no point did his administration destroy the economy nor take away the electorates basic political freedoms.

The thing that really gets me is that Thaksin actually had 14m voters who backed him despite all his mistakes. This government doesnt have any legitimacy to fall back on whatsoever.