Sonthi warns crisis likely in May

[Dakhar]

Oh this should boad well for Thailand economic climate.

Well one thing is for sure, if Thailand as a country can still remain standing after stroke after stroke of bad luck, sars, bird flu, tsunami, coup, institutionalized aggression toward forieng investment, etc etc....

Thailand will be the Mahamid Ali of the world. Don't worry, Thailand is just using the "Roap 'a dope" technique.... just when it looks like there is nothing left, Thailand will rise up with its secret supply of rice and hybrid goats and shock the world, reclaiming its position of hub dominance....

[jumnien]

I agree with the boxing analogy. Those betting that Thailand is "down for the count" are most likely to walk out of the arena penniless or bahtless, as the case may be.

[OlRedEyes]

/d

Edited April 26, 2007 by OlRedEyes

[Mobi]

I think some of you, Plus et al, are placing too much faith in the due process of law. Thaksin was a past master in manipulating the courts and it would seem that he is still doing so, behind the scenes.

One of the many reasons that the crisis will come to a head in May is that the final decision is due then on whether to disband the TRT (and the Democrat) parties, and a number of investigations into Thaksin and his gang's nefarious dealings - Shin Corp, land purchase, airport deals etc etc will also come to a head. It is very possible that that Thaksin will find ways to avoid his day of judgement, and that will not sit well with the coup Makers. They probably have already realised that they are never going to sort this country out, and put Thaksin away, by following the rule of law. There's still far too much Thaksin money around to pervert the system.

Alternatively, the axe will finally fall, and that will not sit at all well with Thaksin, TRT and a great number of his followers who still wield considerable power and influence.

Any way you want to look at it, there is a potential disaster waiting to happen just a few weeks down the road, and if I was Sonthi, I'd be planning my 2nd coup at this very moment.

I suspect that the warnings he has made about trouble ahead, are part of the softening up process.

As far as i can see, the only immediate 'downside' of strengthening his hold on power by instigating a second coup, would be the negative reactions abroad - but he has already learnt that most of the criticisms are little more than hot air, and he only has to throw a few trade crumbs to get all the greedy folk from the US of A and Europe back on board again. In the short term, I doubt he cares too much about what Bush or some European diplomat may say. This is his country - not theirs.

As for the Thai people - well as long as he keeps 'those above him' on side. I doubt there will be too many problems in the short to medium term. Eventually he will have to turn the power back to the people, but that could be 2 - 3 years away, and will necessitate a much better constitution than the one being currently cut and pasted by second rate legislators and lawyers.

[sriracha john]

See here for full article.

Any ideas on what is planned? They make it sound like everything can be managed or prevented, and yet the govt is issuing a "national crisis alert"?!?

In that very short article, it's very revealing that the word "could" appears five times....

Has the government issued a national crisis alert? No.

[hammered]

Very possible outcome Abrak, Sonthi does appear to have the smarts it takes to run the country. He on the intellectual level seems to a good match for Thaksin. He shows a thought process that goes past one or 2 steps and to me that is high marks. No doubt part of the reason he made it to the top post in the military. I think it will have a lot to do on the final version of the constitution if he is eligible to be PM. I can see he may be motivated to do that if he feels that the stability of the country is a bit shaky and needs more time to settle down. I think that would be more for country and not himself.

I have not looked at what his plans were prior to the coup in any great detail, but it seems he just wanted to kick back and pass the reigns to the next man in line.

You make it sound like a nice idea - actually it is a recipe for disaster. The sooner the military get out of politics (again!!) the better. The key problem would be that Bangkok would never elect a military linked party (probably choosing the Democrats by default). You would the be in the uncomfortable position of having a military linked government with no support in Bangkok. That - as history has shown - is a recipe for unrest and political instability. It wouldnt be long before people were on the streets.....

No Thai government has gone its full term without having support from MPs within Bangkok (even though they represent less than 10% of parliament).

I would guess that for an elected government to work and be seen as legitimate if elections are held that the government must be a coalition with elected representation from each region in the country with no dominance from a particular region. In practice that probably means a coalition including the Dems (South and BKK), Somsaks mob (Isaan, center and North) and probably Chart Thai (Center and East), and probably not led by a Dem PM. The problem with this is what happens if the Dems are disolved and dont instantly reappear under a new banner, which is of course linked to what happens to TRT in people's minds even though the cases dont involve exactly the same charges. It is looking like either both or neither party will go down depending more on politcal expediency than anything else. If it looks like a coalition like this - possibly involving other parties I havent thought of - cannot be formed I would seriously doubt a govenrment would last long. In fact I seriously doubt that elections could/would take place. And of course all this is speculation on as all kind of unpredictable events could occur in th next 2 months as we have been warned of by not only the government and Military but also independent analysts.

[stoneman]

I still have this picture in my mind of Toxin returning to BKK and thousands of Thais lining the highways from the airport welcoming him back.

I think that it is going to be very difficult and probably impossible to convict Toxin of any wrong doing...The process to finally put him in jail is very long and filled with many dangers. And if anyone is brave enough to indict him and start the process, they better see it through to the end. Anything short of that could be life threatening.

Based on that, I do not think that we will ever see any indictments against him. The only chance they have is to continue the military rule by performing another coup and allowing one of Gen Sonthi's friends to head the coup and then make Sonthi the new PM and run with this team for several years until the Toxin influence subsides and elections could be contested without Toxin influence.

IMHO ...To have elections this year without convicting Toxin of a crime is inviting Toxin to return as PM and I think the coup leaders understand this.

[Tony Clifton]

Thai embassies worldwide to remain alert against possible protests

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has instructed the Thai embassies worldwide to remain alert to possible anti-government demonstrations on May 4.

The Director General of the Department of Information, and Spokesperson to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Tharit Charungwat (ธฤต จรุงวัฒน์), said that rumors of a possible protest initiated by old political powers in front of the Thai embassies in Britain, the US, Japan, and China are being investigated. Mr. Tharit confirms that flyers alleging that Thailand is currently in a political crisis have indeed been distributed.

The flyers called on protesters to gather in opposition to the government and the Council for National Security on May 4. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has instructed Thai embassies worldwide to remain alert for unrest.

Meanwhile Mr.Tharit reported that the incident in which Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra attended a trade development meeting in Qatar was entirely permissable while both the Thai and Qatar governments have been informed of the matter.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 26 April 2007

Expect more tourists applying for visas than protesters.

[jumnien]

To quote Suthichai Yoon's editorial from today's Nation, "If you thought the coup-makers were genuinely handing over real power to the masses, and that all they wanted was to get rid of Thaksin and nothing else, then you would have been badly mistaken."

[Mobi]

...I think that it is going to be very difficult and probably impossible to convict Toxin of any wrong doing...The process to finally put him in jail is very long and filled with many dangers. And if anyone is brave enough to indict him and start the process, they better see it through to the end. Anything short of that could be life threatening.

Based on that, I do not think that we will ever see any indictments against him. The only chance they have is to continue the military rule by performing another coup and allowing one of Gen Sonthi's friends to head the coup and then make Sonthi the new PM and run with this team for several years until the Toxin influence subsides and elections could be contested without Toxin influence.

IMHO ...To have elections this year without convicting Toxin of a crime is inviting Toxin to return as PM and I think the coup leaders understand this.

I couldn't agree more.

[Jai Dee]

We can work it out, PM says

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont yesterday voiced optimism that political tension would not spiral out of control and cause bloodshed next month.

"The government is confident of keeping the situation under control and will strive to reason with opponents through peaceful means because I don't want to see Thais clashing with Thais," he said.

Surayud was reacting to remarks by Council from National Security chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who revealed that subversive elements linked to the ousted government were trying to trigger instability. Sonthi expressed concern about street protests ahead of the May 30 judicial decision that could lead to the Thai Rak Thai Party being banned.

In his speech to a youth group yesterday, Surayud said his government was making progress to restore political normalcy, even though many problems were complex and required time to sort out.

"I think if everyone listens to one another, there must always be a point of equilibrium in which an acceptable solution can be found for all concerned parties," he said.

"There is nothing perfect - even the theory of economic sufficiency - and not everything about the last government is bad," he said, noting that his government would strive to rectify flaws and not discard past achievements.

Source: The Nation - 26 April 2007

[Old Man River]

...I think that it is going to be very difficult and probably impossible to convict Toxin of any wrong doing...The process to finally put him in jail is very long and filled with many dangers. And if anyone is brave enough to indict him and start the process, they better see it through to the end. Anything short of that could be life threatening.

Based on that, I do not think that we will ever see any indictments against him. The only chance they have is to continue the military rule by performing another coup and allowing one of Gen Sonthi's friends to head the coup and then make Sonthi the new PM and run with this team for several years until the Toxin influence subsides and elections could be contested without Toxin influence.

IMHO ...To have elections this year without convicting Toxin of a crime is inviting Toxin to return as PM and I think the coup leaders understand this.

I couldn't agree more.

One thing Hammered mentioned he has heard that makes sense is a deal being struck between the junta and Thaksin to where he is allowed to return, but must stay out of Thai politics completely. This can be achieved and will get both sides what they seek.

[Abrak]

IMHO ...To have elections this year without convicting Toxin of a crime is inviting Toxin to return as PM and I think the coup leaders understand this.

The CNS have chosen to keep things simple - tying up Thaksin with a tax bill of over Bt700bn which he will never pay. That is enough to ensure his permanent exile even before any corruption charges.

The only reason I believe there will be elections this year is that I think that a military led coalition (mostly ex TRT MPs) will win it - hence legitimising this military regime - we shall see.

[Mid]

"There is nothing perfect - even the theory of economic sufficiency - and not everything about the last government is bad,"

[stoneman]

IMHO ...To have elections this year without convicting Toxin of a crime is inviting Toxin to return as PM and I think the coup leaders understand this.

The CNS have chosen to keep things simple - tying up Thaksin with a tax bill of over Bt700bn which he will never pay. That is enough to ensure his permanent exile even before any corruption charges.

The only reason I believe there will be elections this year is that I think that a military led coalition (mostly ex TRT MPs) will win it - hence legitimising this military regime - we shall see.

The only tax bills that are even close to be acted upon are on his children...not Toxin himself...And if re-elected, those tax bills could disappear very quickly..

[John K]

I think some of you, Plus et al, are placing too much faith in the due process of law. Thaksin was a past master in manipulating the courts and it would seem that he is still doing so, behind the scenes.

Mobi, I certainly think you need to consider HRH. In one of the threads he talks about fairness in the courts and I can’t quote word for word, but from memory something about losing face. Simply the judges are in the hot seat to do it right. Lately I have not seen any rulings that make me want to go and bang my head on a wall and start muttering, so I suspect things to go down in a proper way.

[Jai Dee]

Good discussion so far, but please do not introduce the subject of Thai royalty.

[sriracha john]

IMHO ...To have elections this year without convicting Toxin of a crime is inviting Toxin to return as PM

But surely... even if given that scenario... he would decline, as promised:

Former Thai PM Thaksin: "I'm Calling It Quits"

[Mobi]

John,

Much of the civil service is currently in 'neutral' mode, and that includes the Judiciary.

Such is the power of money and fear of retribution that even the previous election commissioners held out - even though it meant them going to jail.

I would think that given the complex and Bureaucratic nature of Thailand's judicial process, that things could be bogged down in the courts for years, if it suits those who wish it.

Another point worth bearing in mind is that if Thaksin is ultimately convicted, he could be extradited to face his accusers. There would virtually be no safe haven for such a high profile figure. He knows this, and will do anything to avoid this scenario. People tend to forget that he is not just fighting for his political future - he is fighting for his freedom, and quite possibly his life - which is why he will never give up, and which is why the coup leaders will not let him go. Unless they are ultimately subverted.

This is a high stakes game indeed.

[hammered]

John,

Much of the civil service is currently in 'neutral' mode, and that includes the Judiciary.

Such is the power of money and fear of retribution that even the previous election commissioners held out - even though it meant them going to jail.

I would think that given the complex and Bureaucratic nature of Thailand's judicial process, that things could be bogged down in the courts for years, if it suits those who wish it.

Another point worth bearing in mind is that if Thaksin is ultimately convicted, he could be extradited to face his accusers. There would virtually be no safe haven for such a high profile figure. He knows this, and will do anything to avoid this scenario. People tend to forget that he is not just fighting for his political future - he is fighting for his freedom, and quite possibly his life - which is why he will never give up, and which is why the coup leaders will not let him go. Unless they are ultimately subverted.

This is a high stakes game indeed.

That seems like quite an accurate analysis of where we are but I would question whether Mr. Thaksin would actually face extradition as he could probably tie it up under politcal conviction in British and then EU courts. That is unless there is a very very clear financial conviction and at the moment it looks like any conviction would be easily appealable to the highest Thai court or he actually gets found guilty of ordering crimes agaianst humanity which is an issue the Junta seemingly do want to address. By the time a case has been appealed to the highest Thai court and then extradition is requested (and it is not inconceivable that the request will never be made) and appealed to death Mr. T could well be very old and too sick to travel or passed away! Or Thailand may have just moved on politcally and the case is just dropped.

[Bottlerocket]

What's the point in discussing any of this if no mention is to be made of the TRF? Let's talk about the solar system but we can't mention space.

[Abrak]

As I see it, it is in everyone's best interests - including Thaksin's - if he is out of this country for the foreseeable future.

[Mobi]

That seems like quite an accurate analysis of where we are but I would question whether Mr. Thaksin would actually face extradition as he could probably tie it up under politcal conviction in British and then EU courts. That is unless there is a very very clear financial conviction and at the moment it looks like any conviction would be easily appealable to the highest Thai court or he actually gets found guilty of ordering crimes agaianst humanity which is an issue the Junta seemingly do want to address. By the time a case has been appealed to the highest Thai court and then extradition is requested (and it is not inconceivable that the request will never be made) and appealed to death Mr. T could well be very old and too sick to travel or passed away! Or Thailand may have just moved on politcally and the case is just dropped.

All very true, but we have our Thai friend in Canada - I forget his name- who may well be on his way home soon, so it is more than possible - just on crimes of financial 'irregularities'.

Do you really think Mr Thaksin wants to spend the rest of his life fighting extradition charges - assuming any country would grant him residence. He's a bit of a political 'hot potato' and foreign governments are fully aware that he's guilty of many crimes.

[hammered]

That seems like quite an accurate analysis of where we are but I would question whether Mr. Thaksin would actually face extradition as he could probably tie it up under politcal conviction in British and then EU courts. That is unless there is a very very clear financial conviction and at the moment it looks like any conviction would be easily appealable to the highest Thai court or he actually gets found guilty of ordering crimes agaianst humanity which is an issue the Junta seemingly do want to address. By the time a case has been appealed to the highest Thai court and then extradition is requested (and it is not inconceivable that the request will never be made) and appealed to death Mr. T could well be very old and too sick to travel or passed away! Or Thailand may have just moved on politcally and the case is just dropped.

All very true, but we have our Thai friend in Canada - I forget his name- who may well be on his way home soon, so it is more than possible - just on crimes of financial 'irregularities'.

Do you really think Mr Thaksin wants to spend the rest of his life fighting extradition charges - assuming any country would grant him residence. He's a bit of a political 'hot potato' and foreign governments are fully aware that he's guilty of many crimes.

I would actually guess that a conviction in Thailand after all appeals would result in no extradition request being made. Mr. T would remain an exile and he would have a lower profile as after an inital burst of publicity following the court outcome he would become yesterdays news. Thailand could move on politcally quicker without him in the country too. I may be wrong but I think the Junta are more interested in a conviction (or two) than in jailing him.

[marquess]

What's the point in discussing any of this if no mention is to be made of the TRF? Let's talk about the solar system but we can't mention space.

[Jai Dee]

What's the point in discussing any of this if no mention is to be made of the TRF?

From the Forum Rules:

Discussion of topics concerning the King or other current or deceased members of the Thai Royal Family is forbidden.

[cm-happy]

Keep your klong jars full of water. You'll know when it happens when the electricity and televison broadcasts fails.

[Jai Dee]

EC Chairman calls for political parties to abide by CDR’s announcements

Chairman of the Election Commission (EC) calls for political parties not to arrange activities considered as violated announcements of the Council for Democratic Reform (CDR).

EC Chairman Aphichart Sukhakkhanon (อภิชาต สุขัคคานนท์) says he was reported by the Cabinet last week that the government still has no plan to revoke the CDR’s 15th and 27th announcements which ban political parties from holding politics-related activities.

However, the chairman affirms EC is willing to facilitate a meeting between the Council for National Security (CNS) and the government to discuss the withdrawal of the two announcements.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 26 April 2007

[esbobes]

I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Since you known so much my Thai Wife has just given the name of the next Prime Minster in the next Gov't. However its in Code #5f2%&t7w can you show it to you important powerful Thai friends to find out what it means. My Thai wife is able to guess the color of the Roulllette ball red or black but cann't make sense of this.

[sunshine13]

its a shame they didnt put one between taskin's eyes and end this nonsense once and for all.