I've seen the grim reality of Thailand without tourists – and it isn't pretty

[Nice Boyd]

Isaan is Thriving get out of Tourist Areas 

[ThailandRyan]

4 hours ago, Chassa said:

Reading TV I guess the whole Thai economy is based on beer drinking and bar girls!

So how is your quote relevant to Thai Tourism and the OP of the grim reality of Thailand without tourists.  Your insinuating that the whole tourism sector is based on two things, your sarcasm is noted but not really relevant.  Do you even live in Thailand like many of us.

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, Pilotman said:

oh dear, let's not economic reality get in the way of uninformed  opinion eh? The whole tourist market only accounts for less than  18% of GDP, fancy that

But that's 90 billion USD.

 

Are you saying Thais won't miss 90 billion USD coming in?

[pineapple01]

90 Bill US for Bargirls, break that figure down.

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, pineapple01 said:

90 Bill US for Bargirls, break that figure down.

Just means that there are lots of very nice houses and vehicles in the Issan villages.  I know a few towns in which they have outdone each other, silly really.

[Pilotman]

22 minutes ago, Logosone said:

But that's 90 billion USD.

 

Are you saying Thais won't miss 90 billion USD coming in?

Of course the loss of 18% of GDP would be missed, but it will not matter too much to the Generals, if their strategic aim in the longer term is to be less reliant on tourists and more reliant on high tech industries and exports.  They, and the Thais generally,  do not like (to put it very mildly) Thailand's international  reputation as a tourist hot spot of beer, beaches, bar girls and sex.  They especially dislike its reputation as one of the go to places for sex tourism and even pedophilia tourism. They have said it publically many, many times, now they must see an opportunity, presented by Covid, to change that poor reputation.  I believe that there is a good chance that this is what is going to happen. Short term pain for longer term industrial and representational change. 

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

Of course the loss of 18% of GDP would be missed, but it will not matter too much to the Generals, if their strategic aim in the longer term is to be less reliant on tourists and more reliant on high tech industries and exports.  They, and the Thais generally,  do not like (to put it very mildly) Thailand's international  reputation as a tourist hot spot of beer, beaches, bar girls and sex.  They especially dislike its reputation as one of the go to places for sex tourism and even pedophilia tourism. They have said it publically many, many times, now they must see an opportunity, presented by Covid, to change that poor reputation.  I believe that there is a good chance that this is what is going to happen. Short term pain for longer term industrial and representational change. 

That would be a bit ironic since places like Dubai are trying to get away from dependence on oil by developing tourism.

 

Since tourism is a huge 90 billion USD cash cow for Thailand and many millions of Thais depend on tourism I would be amazed if the generals would want to do away with one of the main sources of income from Thailand.

[jadee]

I feel genuinely sorry for any Thais who have lost their income due to no tourists, but I'm curious about what percentage of the money from tourism actually helps working people as opposed to benefiting a tiny minority of wealthy individuals and groups who control tourism. 
Take a resort - for example. It will be owned by one or two people or a family, and they'll take the lion's share of the profits during good times and they'll be taking the biggest financial hit right now. Sure.
Yes, with low booking numbers, their staff may be laid off, but even in good times those workers are getting a pittance of a slave wage, so they're probably kept on, doing other duties - they won't see much change. 

Edited August 29, 2020 by jadee

[Pilotman]

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

That would be a bit ironic since places like Dubai are trying to get away from dependence on oil by developing tourism.

 

Since tourism is a huge 90 billion USD cash cow for Thailand and many millions of Thais depend on tourism I would be amazed if the generals would want to do away with one of the main sources of income from Thailand.

Then you don't know military men.  They are by nature and training risk takers if the strategic objective is right.   A reputation for sex of all kinds is not what Dubai is after.  They want high end tourism, which the generals may want to promote/keep but Indians and Chinese don't make the grade. 

[Surelynot]

28 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

if their strategic aim in the longer term is to be less reliant on tourists and more reliant on high tech industries 

Good idea if one pursues that aim by promoting high tech industries......doesn't work so well by driving down the tourist trade and then pretending the high tech industry is providing a greater income.......they need to to drive up tourism AND promote high tech industry....they are not mutually exclusive.

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

Then you don't know military men.  They are by nature and training risk takers if the strategic objective is right.   A reputation for sex of all kinds is not what Dubai is after.  They want high end tourism, which the generals may want to promote/keep but Indians and Chinese don't make the grade. 

The problem with Chinese is that per head they spend very little money. It is only through sheer numbers that they have any importance in Thai tourism. Per head spending of the Chinese is very low.

 

Unsurprisingly the ones who spend the most in Thailand are visitors from the Middle East, with Americans, Europeans, Australians way ahead of the Chinese in per head spending. 

[runamok27]

23 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

The rural locations are not immune to damage and suffering from a lack of tourism money. A lot of these families are supported by tourism money. Millions of these rural folks work in the tourism or tourism related areas of the economy. With the <deleted> prices for their farmed goods and lack of rain they are more reliant than ever on the money generated from tourism. In the end Thailand will probably be okay but it is most likely going to be pretty painful for millions of folks for quite a while.

[Pilotman]

7 minutes ago, runamok27 said:

The rural locations are not immune to damage and suffering from a lack of tourism money. A lot of these families are supported by tourism money. Millions of these rural folks work in the tourism or tourism related areas of the economy. With the <deleted> prices for their farmed goods and lack of rain they are more reliant than ever on the money generated from tourism. In the end Thailand will probably be okay but it is most likely going to be pretty painful for millions of folks for quite a while.

read the rest of this thread, . 

[Pilotman]

12 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Good idea if one pursues that aim by promoting high tech industries......doesn't work so well by driving down the tourist trade and then pretending the high tech industry is providing a greater income.......they need to to drive up tourism AND promote high tech industry....they are not mutually exclusive.

That is true to a degree, but the reputation risk of being seen merely as a sex tourism hot spot, doesn't really make international investors take you too seriously as a haven for their money. High end and family tourism , sure, but how do you stop one and have the other? Not so easy to change many decades of poor reputation. 

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Pilotman said:

That is true to a degree, but the reputation risk of being seen merely as a sex tourism hot spot, doesn't really make international investors take you too seriously as a haven for their money. High end and family tourism , sure, but how do you stop one and have the other? Not so easy to change many decades of poor reputation. 

Very true......give a dog a bad name.......

[Pilotman]

4 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Very true......give a dog a bad name.......

the hoards of Indians steaming into Pattaya et al,  in recent years is hardly helping that bad name. 

[kingofthemountain]

9 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Amazed you think anyone apart from big corporation pays minimum wage, and tax, and social security.

News flash .......... Rice farmers pay 150-200bht to people in the fields.

It's not a thinking from my part, but a first hand experience

 

In the small village where i was full time during 5 years, the daily

wage given by the farmers to the day workers was 300 bhts\day

for 8 hours of hard work. And it was not so easy to find people for work.

 

If a farmer comes with an offer at 150 or even 200 bahts a day, he can be sure

nobody is going to come to work for him.

And it was the same thing on the building sites (First hand experience too)

 

Maybe in your area people are so poor and desperate they are ready to accept anything

or maybe the workers are from Myanmar or Cambodgia? 

 

 

 

[Redline]

On 8/28/2020 at 6:49 PM, BritManToo said:

That's an odd thing to say as every Amphur runs free weekend high-school for people who missed out, courses are always nearly full. And they're very popular with Thai women of all ages that didn't get the chance to attend first time round.

If you graduate weekend high-school you are assured a university place at a Rajabhat university.

I've known many of the ladies who attended.

One woman in her 70s was at CMRU a couple of years back, taking her degree.

Great news.  I’m going by what my Thai friends told me.  We all live in Bangkok and chiang mai.  I used to attend classes at ChiangMai university campus, and I never saw any older people at all-unless they were instructors.

I’m not sure how widespread  these programs are because I don’t know anyone that graduated from university here that had older people in any of their classes.

Its good to know they are getting popular-I wasn’t really speaking about high school, but university on up.

[dimitriv]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

The higher end locations we stayed at had about 10% or slight more customers, where when we traveled to the same locations 1 year ago they were at 80% to 90% of capacity.

 

Yes tourism as it was known is dead, but it's still available, just with fewer folks who can afford it.

 

I hope that you understand that locations with 10% occupation will not survive...

 

 

[Burma Bill]

Whatever you may all believe about tourism income, may I post this, with due respect, from Wikipedia:-

 

The economy of Thailand is dependent on exports, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Thailand itself is a newly industrialized country, with a GDP of 16.316 trillion baht (US$505 billion) in 2018, the 8th largest economy of Asia, according to the World Bank.

 

No mention of tourism (although it must contribute in some small way) and Thailand has VAT at 7% which brings in billions of baht every year just from residents - I admit tourists would provide a bonus.

[dimitriv]

7 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

dependent on exports, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the country's

 

And where does the remaining 1/3 come from?   Tourism?

[Sametboy2019]

8 hours ago, Pilotman said:

oh dear, let's not economic reality get in the way of uninformed  opinion eh? The whole tourist market only accounts for less than  18% of GDP, fancy that,  while the other 82% of the Thai economy has absolutely nothing to do with expats or tourism. That is the reality, not influenced by a few bar girls sending home their money. You can't build an economy on that. 

That 18% also buys things, food, clothes, rent etc. Its a domino affect. 18% of the GDP. How many people is that? Any resort that goes under employs how many staff? Taxis, restaurants, bars, excursions etc all losing money. 

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, dimitriv said:

 

I hope that you understand that locations with 10% occupation will not survive...

 

 

Well then the 5 star resorts will be folding up shop and the Major Hotel Chains such as Marriott and others will be going under according to your post.  That will never happen.

[elliss]

On 8/28/2020 at 10:21 AM, bert bloggs said:

In a minute the wife and i are off for a walk in town ,or at least beach road here in Pattaya ,something we never used to do ,because of the traffic and Chinese tours  etc etc , its been dead for months ,more than half the places are closed with more going every day . I honestly cannot see it coming back to normal for years .

 

 Count yourself lucky Bert , 

  Enjoy your walk with your wife . Hope you make it a daily routine .

  Pattaya , along with many tourist reliant hot spots , will never be the same ..

  Every cloud , has a Silver lining ..

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by elliss

[bert bloggs]

1 minute ago, elliss said:

 

 Count yourself lucky Bert , 

  Enjoy your walk with your wife . Hope you make it a daily routine .

  Pattaya , along with many tourist reliant hot spots , will never be the same ..

  Every cloud , has a Silver lining ..

 

As i wrote later ,we did go for a walk ,wow ,it was like a ghost town ,hardly anyone around ,the beach deserted ,,i was so sorry for the shops that were open selling beach stuff ,who was there to buy it ,even Mcdonalds only had two people in it, us having a coffee ,before coming home.

most of these places before long will not be able to open up again ,even when tourists do return ,because they will be broke.

As for us its great , easy to park etc and  the wife runs with her club a lot she ran through walking st and up the hill to Jomtien this morning ,said how it was changing there ,walking st that is ,usually they have to dodge around people .

[GeorgeCross]

2 hours ago, dimitriv said:

And where does the remaining 1/3 come from?   Tourism?

 

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government investment + government spending + (exports – imports)

 

private consumption would be a huge portion of it

 

[adammike]

3 hours ago, Burma Bill said:

Whatever you may all believe about tourism income, may I post this, with due respect, from Wikipedia:-

 

The economy of Thailand is dependent on exports, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Thailand itself is a newly industrialized country, with a GDP of 16.316 trillion baht (US$505 billion) in 2018, the 8th largest economy of Asia, according to the World Bank.

 

No mention of tourism (although it must contribute in some small way) and Thailand has VAT at 7% which brings in billions of baht every year just from residents - I admit tourists would provide a bonus.

Are Gogo girls giving out recites for services rendered and paying taxes and vat? I'm asking for a friend because he paid 5000 Baht back in January and wants to claim the vat back.

[dimitriv]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well then the 5 star resorts will be folding up shop and the Major Hotel Chains such as Marriott and others will be going under according to your post.  That will never happen.

 

You know that Marriott is just a franchise formula?  A hotel with a 10% occupancy rate will not survive. The day after the hotel owner doesn't pay the Marriott franchise fee they will take the name from the wall and that's it.

 

[Pinot]

On 8/28/2020 at 10:34 AM, connda said:

On the bright side?  It will be wonderful this high-season to head out to tour Thailand and have most of the tourist spots all to ourselves - deserted beaches?  Perfect!

Let's remember the very positive environmental impact of not having 40 million tourists does for the place. I realize the financial impact but the environmental impact has been worth it. I don't care if they ever come back. I'm enjoying traveling around. 

I'm a 10 year Phuket resident; in the last couple of months I've been to Trang, Krabi, currently in Surat Thani, heading to Samui for a month. Last thing in the world I want is diseased tourists back here. 

I predict Phuket will be back in lockdown within a month of opening the joint.  

 

Edited August 30, 2020 by Pinot

[Fex Bluse]

Lots of expats clearly have no understanding of basic economics. If you think tourism is not crucial to Thailand (despite everyone in government talking almost exclusively about tourism), I really don't know what to say. 

 

To those who think that because they don't see tourists on a regular basis, that tourism can't be very significant, I say to them, I don't see farmers on a regular basis, but I da#n sure do eat.