I've seen the grim reality of Thailand without tourists – and it isn't pretty

[BritManToo]

13 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

Lots of expats clearly have no understanding of basic economics. If you think tourism is not crucial to Thailand (despite everyone in government talking almost exclusively about tourism), I really don't know what to say. 

 

To those who think that because they don't see tourists on a regular basis, that tourism can't be very significant, I say to them, I don't see farmers on a regular basis, but I da#n sure do eat. 

 

10% to 20% (depending how you count it) of GDP lost with the tourists is a lot of money gone from the country.

I don't see many farmers either, but I suspect many of us have met a few of their daughters.

Edited August 30, 2020 by BritManToo

[elliss]

23 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well then the 5 star resorts will be folding up shop and the Major Hotel Chains such as Marriott and others will be going under according to your post.  That will never happen.

 

Oh ,  yes it will .

   Being a foreigner / alien, on a temporary visit too the Kingdom .

  I don't really care , about the Thai economy .

As i have no say in its destiny ...

 

Edited August 30, 2020 by elliss

[elliss]

On 8/29/2020 at 2:00 PM, Pilotman said:

the hoards of Indians steaming into Pattaya et al,  in recent years is hardly helping that bad name. 

 

    Their money , is as good as yours and mine .

    Thai Culture ..

 

[JensenZ]

On 8/28/2020 at 10:06 AM, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Are you serious? Losing 18% (your number - unverified) of GDP is a problem of massive scale. The flow on to the other over 40 million Thais (your number - unverified) is huge. Every corner of Thailand benefits from the tourism industry.

 

I don't know what you mean by what is "absolutely essential". No matter how much financial hardship Thai people must endure, the country will still remain. Using that logic, nothing is essential as the people will still survive in some diminished way.

 

You have a very limited understanding of macroeconomics. Thai people are crying all over the country.

Edited August 30, 2020 by JensenZ

[BritManToo]

23 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well then the 5 star resorts will be folding up shop and the Major Hotel Chains such as Marriott and others will be going under according to your post.  That will never happen.

Hotel chains have large pockets.

[JensenZ]

23 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well then the 5 star resorts will be folding up shop and the Major Hotel Chains such as Marriott and others will be going under according to your post.  That will never happen.

You say it will never happen, but 100% of world tourism has stopped dead, for nearly 6 months and counting. How many of Thailand's 5 star hotels have been through anything like this, for as long - with no end in sight?

 

Perhaps the chains will survive in countries that have good government support, but I believe many 5 star hotels and resorts will shut down in many countries.

 

I don't know what the break-even point is in Thailand, but in the US 5-star hotels need an occupancy of over 33% to break-even.

 

If they open with low occupancy, they lose more money than staying closed as they need to offer a lot of expensive 5-star services no matter how many guests they have. How will they reach their break even-point?

 

I'm curious to know how much work these 5-star hotels are doing to maintain the quality of their rooms. Keeping rooms closed in the hot tropical climate can cause a lot of damage if they don't maintain them properly.

[Pilotman]

1 hour ago, JensenZ said:

Are you serious? Losing 18% (your number - unverified) of GDP is a problem of massive scale. The flow on to the other over 40 million Thais (your number - unverified) is huge. Every corner of Thailand benefits from the tourism industry.

 

I don't know what you mean by what is "absolutely essential". No matter how much financial hardship Thai people must endure, the country will still remain. Using that logic, nothing is essential as the people will still survive in some diminished way.

 

You have a very limited understanding of macroeconomics. Thai people are crying all over the country.

I'm a qualified economist?  'Crying people' isn't economics, macro or micro, that's emotion. 

Edited August 30, 2020 by Pilotman

[geriatrickid]

Please use common sense.

- There is no definitive GDP contribution for "Tourism" because it can be measured in multiple ways. This is why it is estimated from 9% to 18%.

 

- The  GDP value people are quoted in this thread includes DOMESTIC tourism as well as International tourism. Domestic is estimated to be 50% of the value, which means anywhere from 4.5% to 9%.

The point is, please stop using 18% because domestic tourism  has not stopped. It might not be as strong as prior to Covid19, but it is still on.

 

- There is an assumption that  all parts of the economy are in decline.   Thailand's medical and pharmaceutical sectors are going full tilt, at maximum capacity. Food processing and rice exports are expected to rise in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 as the  world suffers food shortages due to the multiple droughts underway.  

 

- Yes,  Thailand's overall economy will take a hit this year, perhaps 6%-7% decline in the GDP as a reflection of the impact of tourism. However, this is manageable. Instead of importing hundreds of thousands of foreign workers to fill Thailand's labour shortages in the service sector, those jobs can be filled by Thais who will spend their  wages in Thailand and not be sending them out of Thailand as the Cambodians and Myanmar workers have done. 

 

- Whatever Thailand is experiencing, it is being shared throughout the world. When Thailand reopens in a year or so, the Chinese will flood back, driving the price of real estate skywards.

[blackcab]

Off topic posts have been removed.

[Stargeezr]

Thailand is not the only country suffering from the Covid virus. Major hotel chains are

indeed suffering as USA tourism is toast, Europe is starting to recover but is not getting

huge international tourist numbers, same for Australia, South America, Central America and Canada. So even the major hotel chains are not making money anywhere. I expect to see

a few of them shrink a lot to say the least if some of them do not go totally bankrupt.

  Thailand is not the centre of the world, however even most of Asia is not making big

money from tourism.  The entire world is being affected by corona virus and all is 

suffering.  It will be a very different world in the next year or two. I bet a lot of airlines

will be out of business except for their core operations. Many low cost airlines are already

folding, likely the freight airlines are the ones in the best shape. If Thailand does recover

and does open their country to international tourists, they will find that a lot less are

going to travel as they are not as rich as they were before the corona virus hit, as a majority 

of people were out of work for a long time. Savings accounts were dug into just to survive,

and just the cost of living and getting by is how the majority of people are living today.

Geezer

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by Stargrazer9889
errors

[Pilotman]

9 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Please use common sense.

- There is no definitive GDP contribution for "Tourism" because it can be measured in multiple ways. This is why it is estimated from 9% to 18%.

 

- The  GDP value people are quoted in this thread includes DOMESTIC tourism as well as International tourism. Domestic is estimated to be 50% of the value, which means anywhere from 4.5% to 9%.

The point is, please stop using 18% because domestic tourism  has not stopped. It might not be as strong as prior to Covid19, but it is still on.

 

- There is an assumption that  all parts of the economy are in decline.   Thailand's medical and pharmaceutical sectors are going full tilt, at maximum capacity. Food processing and rice exports are expected to rise in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 as the  world suffers food shortages due to the multiple droughts underway.  

 

- Yes,  Thailand's overall economy will take a hit this year, perhaps 6%-7% decline in the GDP as a reflection of the impact of tourism. However, this is manageable. Instead of importing hundreds of thousands of foreign workers to fill Thailand's labour shortages in the service sector, those jobs can be filled by Thais who will spend their  wages in Thailand and not be sending them out of Thailand as the Cambodians and Myanmar workers have done. 

 

- Whatever Thailand is experiencing, it is being shared throughout the world. When Thailand reopens in a year or so, the Chinese will flood back, driving the price of real estate skywards.

I am quoting 17.7% as the last official figure for 'tourism' that I can find.  You are right in that the number will have changed due to other factors in pay this year, but we have no idea as yet what that percentage impact will be.  I very much doubt that knowing the majority Thai population propensity to spend, or lack of it, that the numbers for 'domestic tourism,' will be very low and very hard to measure.  For example, a Bangkok based family spending a day at the beach from home, will travel, but may take their own food and drink, or eat at the beach side stalls and so their spend will be minimal. The number staying in hotels and eating out may be very small and the amount spent correspondingly small.  In these circumstances, to quote circa 18% of GDP is quite valid as a rough marker, but I agree that it is only rough. In my posts I have been speculating on the future strategic plans of the Government so the 18% is again a usual indicator of what they may be prepared to risk in the name of re alignment of the economy.  

[dimitriv]

11 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

- The  GDP value people are quoted in this thread includes DOMESTIC tourism as well as International tourism. Domestic is estimated to be 50% of the value, which means anywhere from 4.5% to 9%.

The point is, please stop using 18% because domestic tourism  has not stopped.

 

Where did you get that number ?  I do not believe that domestic tourism is 50% of the total number.  Maybe 10%, but not 50%.

 

 

 

[Thomas J]

On 8/28/2020 at 10:06 AM, Pilotman said:

It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand.

Pilotman,

 

I am not sure how the 18% of GDP is calculated, however I suspect that is the direct dollars spent by tourists.  That does not take into account the multiplier effect.  A person who receives money at a restaurant, hotel, taxi, tourist attraction etc. spends that money on housing, cars, clothing, food, appliances, etc.   Those purchases in turn spur further purchases by those selling those products.  So the net loss to the economy is far greater than the 18% spent directly.  While it is certainly true that some areas of Thailand are not dependent on tourism.  Without tourists, things like new cars are hurt.  Locals, dependent on tourism lack the money to buy them, no need for rental agencies to buy them, that in turn depresses production which impacts that Thai worker who is employed in the Thai factory making them. 

[Pilotman]

3 hours ago, dimitriv said:

 

Where did you get that number ?  I do not believe that domestic tourism is 50% of the total number.  Maybe 10%, but not 50%.

 

 

 

I doubt it's even that much. 

[Pilotman]

2 hours ago, Thomas J said:

Pilotman,

 

I am not sure how the 18% of GDP is calculated, however I suspect that is the direct dollars spent by tourists.  That does not take into account the multiplier effect.  A person who receives money at a restaurant, hotel, taxi, tourist attraction etc. spends that money on housing, cars, clothing, food, appliances, etc.   Those purchases in turn spur further purchases by those selling those products.  So the net loss to the economy is far greater than the 18% spent directly.  While it is certainly true that some areas of Thailand are not dependent on tourism.  Without tourists, things like new cars are hurt.  Locals, dependent on tourism lack the money to buy them, no need for rental agencies to buy them, that in turn depresses production which impacts that Thai worker who is employed in the Thai factory making them. 

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate measures how fast components of an economy are growing. Those components can be added together via three methods: final expenditures, value-added in production, or income. In the final expenditure method, the GDP growth rate has four components.

 

Value added is usually included, but not sure in Thailand's case. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by Pilotman

[Wavel]

On 8/28/2020 at 8:26 PM, hotandsticky said:

 

Do you have a reference for that understated figure of 11%....... otherwise it looks like you are just plucking figures out of the air.

One can find almost anything on google and I like to compare different things between the UK & here. I remember a statistical chart that I had seen with many nations on. I might be wrong, maybe it’s 12%.sure as fxxk it’s not 18%

[elliss]

On 8/29/2020 at 10:35 PM, adammike said:

Are Gogo girls giving out recites for services rendered and paying taxes and vat? I'm asking for a friend because he paid 5000 Baht back in January and wants to claim the vat back.

 

 Would that be .

    Va ---a , added tax .. 

     

 

[oldhippy]

Pathetic: posters discussing the % of tourism in Thai GDP - without any knowledge of macro economics.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/28/2020 at 3:06 PM, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

I was surprised to learn that tourism was so high before Corona. Far as I know it used to be only 6%.

The problem for the government is that it provided a living for millions of poor Thais that are not going to starve quietly while sleeping in a cardboard box under a bridge.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/31/2020 at 12:50 AM, elliss said:

 

    Their money , is as good as yours and mine .

    Thai Culture ..

 

LOL. The Indians didn't spend much. They even tried to barter down the 10 baht fare for a Pattaya baht bus I was on.

The Chinese didn't spend much outside Chinese businesses.

 

Farangs spent loads on bars, booze and women. They supported untold numbers of poor Thais.

[oldhippy]

7 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I was surprised to learn that tourism was so high before Corona. Far as I know it used to be only 6%.

The problem for the government is that it provided a living for millions of poor Thais that are not going to starve quietly while sleeping in a cardboard box under a bridge.

You were probably right about that 6%. Why did you change your opinion?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/28/2020 at 3:11 PM, Surelynot said:

The money might not feed directly to them in a rural economy, but where do you think the money comes from for schools, roads, hospitals?....18% is a huge blow to every part of the Thai economy.

From the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Even at 18% much would never have been taxed. It's a cash economy at the lowest level, and no receipts given.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, oldhippy said:

You were probably right about that 6%. Why did you change your opinion?

I didn't say I did, but I didn't invent 6% on my own. It was the figure being used when tourism was being discussed, and could change, obviously.

Far as I'm concerned, a vast portion of the money farangs spent never saw an accountant, as it was spent in the cash economy, no receipts given. No one is daft enough to think a BG declares her real earnings, are they?

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, Wavel said:

One can find almost anything on google

Oops.

Edited August 31, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[oldhippy]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I didn't say I did, but I didn't invent 6% on my own. It was the figure being used when tourism was being discussed, and could change, obviously.

Far as I'm concerned, a vast portion of the money farangs spent never saw an accountant, as it was spent in the cash economy, no receipts given. No one is daft enough to think a BG declares her real earnings, are they?

most Thais don't declare their earnings, whores are no exeption

 

[elliss]

13 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

most Thais don't declare their earnings, whores are no exeption

 

 

Excuse me .

     Ladies' in the Trade sounds more appropriate .. 

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by elliss

[oldhippy]

And I will throw some more pearls before swines....., just in case someone feels like quoting the World Bank as some posters did before.

 

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS

According to World Bank imports are over 100% compared to GDP for Singapore or Luxemburg......., while imports are exactly 0% of GDP.......

 

I am not saying the economists at World Bank are stupid for not understanding economics.

 

But I am saying that the economists at World Bank are stupid for supplying information that they should know will be misunderstood by most people, including politicians and even TV posters.

 

Back to tourism: do not confuse Turnover or Sales with Value Added or GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[oldhippy]

Long story short.

OF COURSE tourism is important for the Thai economy, but by far not as important as some expats like to think.

Will the lack of foreign tourism make the Thai economy collapse, or the Baht go down? No and No.

 

And while I am at it.... Will the sad state of the Thai economy make the baht go down?

NO. On the contrary, it will probably go up --- the explanation is hidden in "EXCHANGE" rate: if the economies of Farangland are in an even worse state, the baht will go up ! So much for all that  - endearing - wishful thinking by expats.

[wolf81]

1 hour ago, oldhippy said:

Long story short.

OF COURSE tourism is important for the Thai economy, but by far not as important as some expats like to think.

Will the lack of foreign tourism make the Thai economy collapse, or the Baht go down? No and No.

 

And while I am at it.... Will the sad state of the Thai economy make the baht go down?

NO. On the contrary, it will probably go up --- the explanation is hidden in "EXCHANGE" rate: if the economies of Farangland are in an even worse state, the baht will go up ! So much for all that  - endearing - wishful thinking by expats.

But a Baht that goes up will hurt exports (as well as tourism). And if exports are more important to the Thai economy than tourism, that could be a bad development.

 

I do believe the BoT is trying to prevent the Baht from rising, but it remains to be seen how successful they will be.

[sezze]

1 hour ago, oldhippy said:

Long story short.

OF COURSE tourism is important for the Thai economy, but by far not as important as some expats like to think.

Will the lack of foreign tourism make the Thai economy collapse, or the Baht go down? No and No.

 

And while I am at it.... Will the sad state of the Thai economy make the baht go down?

NO. On the contrary, it will probably go up --- the explanation is hidden in "EXCHANGE" rate: if the economies of Farangland are in an even worse state, the baht will go up ! So much for all that  - endearing - wishful thinking by expats.

You are right , depending on the other sectors which Thailand is strong in . Thailand has a strong car building economy , but cars aren't in huge demand right now . They could do well in computer related industries , which is another strong sector in Thailand . This isn't a 1 side story , and neither it is for all countries on this planet . This is a domino brick , and while some are doing very good ( big companies especially ) , small retailers are doing worse . The lack of income for many who do work in tourist industry will drop down on others , and it will take a while but they will suffer also . When they fall , next one will fall , and the domino's start falling harder and harder . Like i said , this is worldwide , meaning Thailand can be better of then others , depending on many factors ( food is always needed , also strong industry in Thailand ) but do not think we've seen in all yet ... not even the start of it ( except in tourist industry ) .