Will the future be very bad or fabulous?

[polpott]

13 minutes ago, micmichd said:

Not true. Second hand cars were cheap. 

First car I bought, MK 1 lotus Cortina, £25. Second car, Mini, £5. Best buy Rover 3 litre, company directors car, £30.

[khunPer]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You missed the point about AI robotics. Won't need people to look after us oldies ( if corona or the next virus doesn't kill us all ) as androids will do that.

Don't need taxpayers- just tax goods and services higher as even people on the "universal income" have to use them.

Unfortunately you might be very right, however you missed the taxes on property, as property is not as easily movable as people, and all good advises to politicians includes higher taxes on property. Even thai politicians seems to have heard that...????

 

I'm however still old-fashioned enough to invest in expected long-time human service – the worst part is the unknown longevity factor, in case the investment gets old before me...???? – but always looking at the bright side of life: in that case I might win the lottery, and be able to reinvest...????

[micmichd]

14 minutes ago, khunPer said:

Unfortunately you might be very right, however you missed the taxes on property, as property is not as easily movable as people, and all good advises to politicians includes higher taxes on property. Even thai politicians seems to have heard that...????

 

I'm however still old-fashioned enough to invest in expected long-time human service – the worst part is the unknown longevity factor, in case the investment gets old before me...???? – but always looking at the bright side of life: in that case I might win the lottery, and be able to reinvest...????

I live on pensions, and I invest in education. Hopefully my lady's daughter will finish college asap. Then I can marry my lady officially in the German embassy in Bangkok, and in case I die she will get half of my pensions. She will also be my heiress, and her children will be her heirs. 

Of course she pays taxes and isn't amused on that at all. But taxes for Thais in Thailand aren't very high. Her father and mother also own property. A real nice farm in the Issan which will be used as a substitute for their non-existent pensions. 

So our future in Thailand isn't that bad after all. 

Edited September 14, 2020 by micmichd

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/14/2020 at 2:35 PM, micmichd said:

Not true. Second hand cars were cheap. 

Not in NZ. New cars too expensive so second hand expensive. They kept cars going for years past scrap date.

Wasn't till Japanese second hand cars were imported that cars became cheap. In Japan apparently cars are ended at 10 years, so imported to NZ and run many years longer.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/14/2020 at 7:46 PM, khunPer said:

Unfortunately you might be very right, however you missed the taxes on property, as property is not as easily movable as people, and all good advises to politicians includes higher taxes on property. Even thai politicians seems to have heard that...????

 

I'm however still old-fashioned enough to invest in expected long-time human service – the worst part is the unknown longevity factor, in case the investment gets old before me...???? – but always looking at the bright side of life: in that case I might win the lottery, and be able to reinvest...????

Property is too expensive and being bought up by "investors" to rent. IMO most will never own property in the future.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/14/2020 at 1:38 PM, polpott said:

Who empties them?

Silly question. They empty themselves. Androids do whatever they are programmed to do.

[micmichd]

8 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Not in NZ. New cars too expensive so second hand expensive. They kept cars going for years past scrap date.

Wasn't till Japanese second hand cars were imported that cars became cheap. In Japan apparently cars are ended at 10 years, so imported to NZ and run many years longer.

I meant in the USA. 

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, micmichd said:

I meant in the USA. 

You guys are lucky. A bog standard Mustang costs a fortune in NZ. However my most desired car is the Australian Charger. The US one looks like junk IMO.

[khunPer]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Property is too expensive and being bought up by "investors" to rent. IMO most will never own property in the future.

Property has a reputation of always being "too expensive" when you buy.

 

The "investors" on Samui either buy large plots of empty land, for later development, or high end luxury estates, or attractive land to build luxury villa's on for either rental, or for sale to those that wish to avoid the hassle by building a house.

 

However, during the later years the price increases of raw land on Samui seems to have leveled out, seems to stay at around 2008-level. Only extremely attractive land seems to still increase in value. Brand new houses has a value, but normally the value of houses in Thailand decrease by age – most Thai buyers prefer new houses – whilst the value of the land under the house normally increase. Some villas on Samui have been "for sale" for ages – I've seen some for sale for more than 10 years – probably with a too high offer price-tag compared to location and house quality, which can include both architecture and maintenance, and too little willingness to negotiate a fair sales price.

 

It seems like raw undeveloped in-land land, even facing public concrete road with electricity in place, has keept an offer value on about 3.5 million baht per rai (1600 m­­²) for the last 10+ years. Land facing main road is worth more due to busines opportunity.

 

My neighbor sold his little less than 300 m² beachfront land, with an old house not worth to reconstruct, for same price as I was offered for my same sized land, including an old restaurant building not worth to reconstruct, 12 years ago; however it was sold within a couple of weeks. He kindly offered it to me first with a 10 percent discount, but as I'm still waiting for my Euro-Lotto jackpot, I unfortunately had to pass...????

 

I can from advertising see that what you get of villas for around 20-25 million baht is about the same as 10-15 years ago, and in the prime locations from 50-70 million baht.

 

For a plain simple guy as me, it's more difficult to judge the several hundred million baht offered properties, but sales-prices might have to do with metal price increase of the water taps...

 

The time for investment in land for speculation on Samui has reached it's peak for some time. Whilst until very recently, and perhaps also in the future, investment in high-end pool-villas for rental seems like a reasonable business, especially when in the right location; property investment is always a question of location.

 

In principle you dont't own land – many or most places – if you don't use it and/or don't pay due property tax. In Thailand – and some other places also – be aware of squatters, if you let them stay on your property, they can claim possession right, i.e. ownership, after a certain time; in Thailand from three to ten years, depending of the title of the land deed...????

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, khunPer said:

The "investors" on Samui either buy large plots of empty land, for later development, or high end luxury estates, or attractive land to build luxury villa's on for either rental, or for sale to those that wish to avoid the hassle by building a house.

They are speculating on Thailand still being in favour for some years to come.  Thailand was falling out of favour before Covid.

 

Meanwhile, in Vietnam..........................

 

Look at the percentage increases in tourism for January 2020.  Up 32.8% from the previous year.  Many of that 32.8% are are westerners with real money to spend, not cheap Chinese package holiday zero baht tourists.  

 

https://vietnamtourism.gov.vn/english/index.php/statistic/international?txtkey=&year=2020&period=t1

[khunPer]

3 hours ago, Leaver said:

They are speculating on Thailand still being in favour for some years to come.  Thailand was falling out of favour before Covid.

 

Meanwhile, in Vietnam..........................

 

Look at the percentage increases in tourism for January 2020.  Up 32.8% from the previous year.  Many of that 32.8% are are westerners with real money to spend, not cheap Chinese package holiday zero baht tourists.  

 

https://vietnamtourism.gov.vn/english/index.php/statistic/international?txtkey=&year=2020&period=t1

Actually Westerners are statistically low spenders...

 

Furthermore looking at tourist's origination as per August 2019 stats, 4.81 percent were Europeans, 0.68 percent Americans, and 0.30 percent from down under, i.e. AUS and NZ. Russians were 2.90 percent.

 

Westerner's "with real money to spend" are statistically not that important.

 

Majority was China with 57.80 percent, AEC with 9.73, and remaining Asia with 15.49 percent.

 

High end villa buyers, and renters, are not specific Westerners, and it's also a different market than mass tourism and "all inclusive tours".

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, khunPer said:

In principle you dont't own land – many or most places – if you don't use it and/or don't pay due property tax. In Thailand – and some other places also – be aware of squatters, if you let them stay on your property, they can claim possession right, i.e. ownership, after a certain time; in Thailand from three to ten years, depending of the title of the land deed...

I like that. Wish it was like that in NZ.

I did own a house and land once upon a time,but the hag from hell got it, and my chance had passed.

At least I never let my wife talk me into building a house for "us".

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, khunPer said:

Actually Westerners are statistically low spenders...

 

Furthermore looking at tourist's origination as per August 2019 stats, 4.81 percent were Europeans, 0.68 percent Americans, and 0.30 percent from down under, i.e. AUS and NZ. Russians were 2.90 percent.

 

Westerner's "with real money to spend" are statistically not that important.

 

Majority was China with 57.80 percent, AEC with 9.73, and remaining Asia with 15.49 percent.

 

High end villa buyers, and renters, are not specific Westerners, and it's also a different market than mass tourism and "all inclusive tours".

Quite right too. Farangs have always had an inflated opinion of our importance in LOS. IMO we are not half as important as we like to think we are.

[BritManToo]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

I did own a house and land once upon a time,but the hag from hell got it, and my chance had passed.

At least I never let my wife talk me into building a house for "us".

Didn't we all ........ gotta love gynocentric laws.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Didn't we all ........ gotta love gynocentric laws.

Men need to wake up and see what is going on.  It's all being taken over by subterfuge. At least I won't be around for the full horror to come.

[micmichd]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Men need to wake up and see what is going on.  It's all being taken over by subterfuge. At least I won't be around for the full horror to come.

Bet you will. 

If not in Thailand then in the West. 

This is the century of Asia, are you aware of this? 

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, micmichd said:

Bet you will. 

If not in Thailand then in the West. 

This is the century of Asia, are you aware of this? 

Bet I will what?

 

I do know that a certain very populous country is going to be the next dominant civilization, as the west is rotting from within, which is how all civilizations fall. Can you imagine all those fat kids that have a phone glued to their hand fighting a world war?

[BritManToo]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Bet I will what?

 

I do know that a certain very populous country is going to be the next dominant civilization, as the west is rotting from within, which is how all civilizations fall. Can you imagine all those fat kids that have a phone glued to their hand fighting a world war?

There's a theory that .......

1) allowing barbarians citizenship, and

2) allowing women to be anything but 'property'

 

Will destroy any civilisation in a fairly short space of time.

[micmichd]

On 9/14/2020 at 8:28 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

What are you on? Who do you think were fighting in Vietnam?

 

Cheap digs 5555555555555555555555

I earned $17 when I started, for an 84 hour week. Digs were as unaffordable then as now.

 

Good pensions

That was the previous generation.

 

Air travel was too expensive so no overseas holidays.

Petrol was cheaper in real terms though and crime less.

I travelled overland and by boat to Asia in 1969 69-70, and it was the "City of Joy" (Calcutta) where I changed sides. Moreover, the Vietnam War (here called the "American War") gave me the rest. 

 

And now, as everything goes down the gutter in the West, I will not change sides again - even if I get bashed as a "bloody commie rat" 

It's the irony of history that even Pompeio from the USA advocates communist Vietnam now as a model for whole South East Asia. 

What do you think, why? 

[BritManToo]

On 9/14/2020 at 8:28 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Air travel was too expensive so no overseas holidays.

Petrol was cheaper in real terms though and crime less.

You're wrong ..............

My parents (born 1914 and 1910) used to fly to Spain for holidays every year.

He was a bricklayer, and she was a hairdresser.

This was in the 1960s.

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, BritManToo said:

You're wrong ..............

My parents (born 1914 and 1910) used to fly to Spain for holidays every year.

He was a bricklayer, and she was a hairdresser.

This was in the 1960s.

I was referring to myself, and in NZ air travel was too expensive.

[thaibeachlovers]

24 minutes ago, micmichd said:

I travelled overland and by boat to Asia in 1969 69-70, and it was the "City of Joy" (Calcutta) where I changed sides. Moreover, the Vietnam War (here called the "American War") gave me the rest. 

 

And now, as everything goes down the gutter in the West, I will not change sides again - even if I get bashed as a "bloody commie rat" 

It's the irony of history that even Pompeio from the USA advocates communist Vietnam now as a model for whole South East Asia. 

What do you think, why? 

Not sure what you mean by What do you think, why? but I think western civilization is doomed and not too much longer before it falls to the populous country that knows what gender people are. Going to be lots of unhappy kids that were brought up thinking they were special.

[BritManToo]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Not sure what you mean by What do you think, why? but I think western civilization is doomed and not too much longer before it falls to the populous country that knows what gender people are. Going to be lots of unhappy kids that were brought up thinking they were special.

I think there's a fair chance Islam will beat China.

[Tagged]

Do not worry, we will all die sooner or later. Some will call that a bright future, while others, 

[ben2talk]

On 9/9/2020 at 6:38 PM, Brunolem said:

The near future, that is the 2020s decade, is going to be very bad.

I'm a little excited about the concept of quantum computing and AI developing, apart from that we're pretty stuffed IMO.

 

Last year I came across a theory that the main reason we never contacted with other intelligences in the universe is that development of AI and advanced computing would come  before the ability to travel to other Galaxies... and as AI would solve our issues, then there's no need to go exploring anyway. Seems it's the only real hope we have.

[micmichd]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

Didn't we all ........ gotta love gynocentric laws.

Yes, even in the West the female mammals like nests. 

[micmichd]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Bet I will what?

 

I do know that a certain very populous country is going to be the next dominant civilization, as the west is rotting from within, which is how all civilizations fall. Can you imagine all those fat kids that have a phone glued to their hand fighting a world war?

Bet you will face the horror. 

The horror of being strapped in a a Western machine where the rest of you is just an interface to AI. 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Not sure what you mean by What do you think, why? but I think western civilization is doomed and not too much longer before it falls to the populous country that knows what gender people are. 

It is going to happen during this decade.

 

It started around 1970 and accelerated decisively in 2000.

 

We have now entered the final lap, as predicted many years ago by quite a few wise observers.

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, ben2talk said:

 

Last year I came across a theory that the main reason we never contacted with other intelligences in the universe is that development of AI and advanced computing would come  before the ability to travel to other Galaxies... and as AI would solve our issues, then there's no need to go exploring anyway. Seems it's the only real hope we have.

Many tend to define intelligence as the capacity to solve equations, to do complex calculations and so on.

 

For that, machines are ou will be better than us.

 

I consider real intelligence as being able of wisdom, and that, no AI will never have, which is why I prefer to call it AS, as in Artificial Stupidity, because humans are generally stupid, except for a few wise men.

 

Thus, so-called AI, devised by greedy stupid men, will never solve the issues created by these same greedy stupid men.

 

It's like the belief that central banks are going to solve the economic problems which they have created in the first place.

[micmichd]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

There's a theory that .......

1) allowing barbarians citizenship, and

2) allowing women to be anything but 'property'

 

Will destroy any civilisation in a fairly short space of time.

Never heard of that.  

All I know is the theory that slave societies fail if they don't allow free labour. Free labour also for women.