The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[Mid]

BoT: Growth will be above 3.8 pct

The economy is expected to sustain growth of between 3.8 and 4.8 per cent in 2007 on condition that local political problems ease and a date for this year's general election is fixed, Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Tarisa Watanagase said.

well , lookie here ,

no hope of hiding the problem any longer ...........................

good news is that , that admission alone may signal the beginnings of a recovery .

[Mid]

ps , thanxs for playing

[ThaiGoon]

[Mid]

I've been here long enough to know that Thai's seldom say exactly what they mean ,

so ,

I'll take that as an apology ,

thank-you .

[Dupont]

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=30000

Thailand still favoured by Asian, American investors

BANGKOK, June 18 (TNA) – The Thai government's latest Board of Investment (BoI) survey shows that foreign investors -- especially from Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and the United States -- remain confident of Thailand's potential.

BoI Secretary General Satit Charnjavanakul said that his office had assigned Chulalongkorn University's Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration to conduct the survey in February-March 2007.

Mr. Satit said 2,500 questionnaires were distributed, but only 514 organisations responded.

Of those who did respondend, almost half – 43 per cent – showed confidence in Thailand's potential and indicated they would maintain their investment at the same level.

Meanwhile, 35 per cent of the responding investors planned to expand their current investment in Thailand. The responding investors, mainly from Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and the United States, cited their confidence regarding improved exports and growing sales volumes in the second half of the year.

Still, 4 per cent of the respondents stated they were considering downsizing their businesses in Thailand or moving their ventures to any other countries.

Referring to a comparison of Thailand's potential with that of other four key competitors -- China, India,

Vietnam and Malaysia, Mr. Satit stressed that Thailand still maintains high competitiveness in terms of investment infrastructure, logistics and intellectual property protection.

However, the BoI chief said, Thailand's investment privileges might be inferior to those of China, equal

to those of Vietnam, and superior to the incentives offered by India and Malaysia.

Dear Mr Fuzzy logic

Firstly this is Thais engaging in a damage limitation excercise.

Few stats you missed along the way.

1 79.44% of "organisations" either didn't have enough faith in the posing of the questions or of the ability of the organisers to responsibly and accuratly draw conculusions from them ie. showed contempt.

2 Therefore 8.84% of 2500 "organisations" polled expressed confidence in Thailands potential.

3 Meaning 91.6% DIDN'T express confidence.

4 and your 35 percent expanding companies is actually 7.16% of polled companies/organisations.

Not exactly dancing on the tables are they these 2500 foreign investors.

http://lachie.net/maths/percent.html Try this out Thaigoon. Statistics can be awkward things and people can and do read anything into them. Thats why nobody gives a stuff about this poll! It was done for no other reason than to bolster the position of a few high up Thais.

Edited June 19, 2007 by Dupont

[quiksilva]

Actually you cant draw any conclusions about the investors who did not respond, at all.

[Dupont]

Actually you cant draw any conclusions about the investors who did not respond, at all.

Actually, we can and do draw conclusion from this massive slap in the face to the pollsters.

It's a matter of held opinions and confidence, which counts for a lot in business. Hard facts are hard to come by in this media savvy era so it counts for much much more than you give it credit for.

[ThaiGoon]

There were various reasons why people didn't respond to the surveys. To assume one way or the other of the people who didn't respond is just down right stupid.

And Sasin Business school is one of the top business schools in SEA. It has ties with Wharton and Kellogg. Sasin students do go to spend a quarter or two at both Wharton and Kellogg every year. But I don't expect a farang who owns a bar with three stools in Thailand to know this though.

[Dupont]

Anybody have a list of the 2,500 firms solicited?

What could these reasons be oh great one.

Better a bar with three stools than a lonely room with one though!

Edited June 19, 2007 by Dupont

[ThaiGoon]

Actually you cant draw any conclusions about the investors who did not respond, at all.

Exactly.

[A_Traveller]

There were various reasons why people didn't respond to the surveys. To assume one way or the other of the people who didn't respond is just down right stupid.

And Sasin Business school is one of the top business schools in SEA. It has ties with Wharton and Kellogg. Sasin students do go to spend a quarter or two at both Wharton and Kellogg every year. But I don't expect a farang who owns a bar with three stools in Thailand to know this though.

You have just forcibly made the reverse point, a survey from a respected source is to a large degree ignored. Now whilst there may be many reasons for it, it is not unreasonable to attribute at least some of this lack of enthusiasm to the view point that the survey itself is an excercise in futility.

Regards

[Dupont]

There were various reasons why people didn't respond to the surveys. To assume one way or the other of the people who didn't respond is just down right stupid.

And Sasin Business school is one of the top business schools in SEA. It has ties with Wharton and Kellogg. Sasin students do go to spend a quarter or two at both Wharton and Kellogg every year. But I don't expect a farang who owns a bar with three stools in Thailand to know this though.

You have just forcibly made the reverse point, a survey from a respected source is to a large degree ignored. Now whilst there may be many reasons for it, it is not unreasonable to attribute at least some of this lack of enthusiasm to the view point that the survey itself is an excercise in futility.

Regards

Oh dear, Thaigoons left the room to lick his wounds yet again.

[quiksilva]

Actually you cant draw any conclusions about the investors who did not respond, at all.

Actually, we can and do draw conclusion from this massive slap in the face to the pollsters.

It's a matter of held opinions and confidence, which counts for a lot in business. Hard facts are hard to come by in this media savvy era so it counts for much much more than you give it credit for.

Well I suppose you could draw conclusions but that doesn't mean they would be correct.

In addition to maybe saying I have no wish to express an opinion because business is bad and the world will end tomorrow, the executives could just as easily be too busy to address a poll some university sent them, or perhaps it never even landed on their desk.

The point is they did not respond one way or the other, so any conclusion you draw is really your own opinion and nothing more.

[Dupont]

Actually you cant draw any conclusions about the investors who did not respond, at all.

Actually, we can and do draw conclusion from this massive slap in the face to the pollsters.

It's a matter of held opinions and confidence, which counts for a lot in business. Hard facts are hard to come by in this media savvy era so it counts for much much more than you give it credit for.

Well I suppose you could draw conclusions but that doesn't mean they would be correct.

In addition to maybe saying I have no wish to express an opinion because business is bad and the world will end tomorrow, the executives could just as easily be too busy to address a poll some university sent them, or perhaps it never even landed on their desk.

The point is they did not respond one way or the other, so any conclusion you draw is really your own opinion and nothing more.

You appear to kind of understand what you wrote there but your bias against me and others on here pulls you up short of agreeing with us - which you virtually have!

Last time. In the absence of fact, people draw conclusions from whatever data is available.

You have nailed the original story as well, as that is purely their conclusions and opinions on the matter. We all have our own opinions and are entitled to them equally.

Nobody from the busniness community will have failed to draw an opinion from this, whether pro or con.

[highdiver]

There were various reasons why people didn't respond to the surveys. To assume one way or the other of the people who didn't respond is just down right stupid.

And Sasin Business school is one of the top business schools in SEA. It has ties with Wharton and Kellogg. Sasin students do go to spend a quarter or two at both Wharton and Kellogg every year. But I don't expect a farang who owns a bar with three stools in Thailand to know this though.

missed you so much.

[Mid]

Thailand still favoured by almost half – 43 per cent – of 514 organisations that responded showed confidence in Thailand's potential and indicated they would maintain their investment at the same level.

43% of 514 is 221 .

so there are 221 entities that fit the headline , Thailand still favoured by Asian, American investors

halla , bloody lula ........................

[ThaiGoon]

http://lachie.net/maths/percent.html Try this out Thaigoon. Statistics can be awkward things and people can and do read anything into them. Thats why nobody gives a stuff about this poll! It was done for no other reason than to bolster the position of a few high up Thais.

Dupont, that's a very simple math. I could do that when I was in Pratom Two (Grade 2) after learning about addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. But I guess you must be so chuffed that you can do these calculations just now with the help of that website.

And by the way:

3 Meaning 91.6% DIDN'T express confidence.

is wrong. 43% of 514 showed confidence that they would maintain their investment and another 35% planning to expand. So that means 78% of 514 or roughly about 16% of 2500 did show confidence . If you don't get this and can't google it, ask any Thai Pratom Two students. I'm sure they would be happy to teach you. We, Thais, are known for our hospitality.

Mid: there's another 35% of 514 who are planning to expand their business.

Khun Highdiver: waddee krab.

Edited June 19, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Mid]

Mid: there's another 35% of 514 who are planning to expand their business

bull dust ,

same punters but a smaller % .

[ThaiGoon]

It's not bull dust. It's what's reported in that article. It might not be entirely clear in that English article, but it is in a Thai article. 43% of the repondents will maintain their investment plans while the other 35% are planning to expand.

I understand that these numbers might contradict with your reality. But you have to keep in mind that Sasin are not gonna ask a 3-stool bar owner on their surveys you know.

[Morty]

I take a look around me and I just can't see any crisis, the GROWTH rate is slower than some previous years. but its still growth - I think there's still plenty of room for the Asian economies to nearly catch up to for example Japan.

Rubbish

IMHO you can't compare Japan and Thailand.

Just wait until the repo guys shows up, and then you have your growth. A country relying on 70% export and foreign investment, only has two choices: take their losses, or start their print presses. In other contries that is called a crise, with a capitol C

[Mid]

It might not be entirely clear in that English article, but it is in a Thai article.

ho hum

[womble]

Lies, D.mn lies and S..t.st..s

Fill in the dots, then perhaps you'll realise there's no point arguing these figures.........

Edited June 19, 2007 by womble

[ThaiGoon]

I take a look around me and I just can't see any crisis, the GROWTH rate is slower than some previous years. but its still growth - I think there's still plenty of room for the Asian economies to nearly catch up to for example Japan.

Rubbish

IMHO you can't compare Japan and Thailand.

Just wait until the repo guys shows up, and then you have your growth. A country relying on 70% export and foreign investment, only has two choices: take their losses, or start their print presses. In other contries that is called a crise, with a capitol C

Exports and tourism counst for about 60% of Thailand's GDP.

[Prakanong]

Some interesting stuff here - South East Asia Monitors latest

Oops posted twice and do not know how to get rid of ;-)

Kasokorn telling thai's to invest in Vietnam is only one thing in the paper - of course if the market there is growing faster, has room for growth and has higher returns it would only be prudent to do so - other Asian money will be going there too though and Thailand is not good at competing against that.

SouthEastAsiaMonitorVol1_200707.pdf

SouthEastAsiaMonitorVol1_200707.pdf

Edited June 19, 2007 by Prakanong

[hammered]

For this survey to be released by any surveying institution it would have met certain statistical criteria making it as valid or invalid as any other similar survey. Why doesnt somebody just contact the surveying body and ask for the stats on the survey? It may also interest some to look at the methods too. Then you will know things like the level of confidence, +/- error and a variety of other stuff. To just try and judge the validity of any survey based on a short newspaper report is highly questionable. At the moment this is just degenarating into an amateurish arguement based on very questionable assumptions.

[Prakanong]

For this survey to be released by any surveying institution it would have met certain statistical criteria making it as valid or invalid as any other similar survey. Why doesnt somebody just contact the surveying body and ask for the stats on the survey? It may also interest some to look at the methods too. Then you will know things like the level of confidence, +/- error and a variety of other stuff. To just try and judge the validity of any survey based on a short newspaper report is highly questionable. At the moment this is just degenarating into an amateurish arguement based on very questionable assumptions.

Agree with you some of the way regarding the stat inference and confidence rates.

Thing is though if respondents were chosen in a certain way all the stats in the world will not negate it being skewed.

Were they chosen randomly - were they randomised ;-)))

I know a double blind randomised study is not the way to go here but you get what I mean

[highdiver]

so what is going on

I have been readin the news and just can not belive it.

Thai shares jumped 2.95% on foreign buying yesterday as political tensions lessened following the weekend's anti-government protests, which ended without violence.

Last Update : 19 Jun 2007 12:31:03

Last Change Value (M.Baht)

SET Index 767.54 +1.34 9,045.36

SET100 Index 1,183.81 +2.09 5,584.30

SET50 Index 545.55 +0.95 4,087.36

mai Index 213.79 +0.59 82.99

As of 18 Jun 2007 Unit: M.Baht

Type Buy Sell Net

Individual 11,400.81 13,760.29 -2,359.48

Institution 3,362.20 2,304.23 1,057.97

Foreign 8,392.82 7,091.31 1,301.51

Total Trading Value 23,155.83 M.Baht

the foreigners are pouring in... they must not be aware of some of the posts here.

28-day bills yield 2.58%

DEBT MARKET :The Bank of Thailand yesterday auctioned one billion baht worth of 28-day notes for a weighted average accepted yield of 2.58225%. Accepted bid yields ranged from 2.5685% to 2.6%, with the bid coverage ratio 5.26 times.

The central bank also auctioned one billion baht in 91-day bills for an average yield of 2.86332%. Accepted bid yields ranged from 2.845% to 2.9%, with bid coverage of 5.91 times.

Also sold were one billion baht in 182-day bills, for an average yield of 2.9819%. Accepted bid yields ranged from 2.9% to 3.05%, with bid coverage of 3.79 times.

well it seems those BOT guys know about auctioning debt more then some of our members

The National Economic and Social Development Board reported that the public consumption was 98.16 billion baht, up 11.2% from the same period last year, due to increases in government expenditures.

April imports also showed an increase in capital goods, compared with steady contractions in the second half of last year.

New project approvals by the Board of Investment (BoI) had an investment value of 123 billion baht in the first five months of the year, up from 90 billion in the same period last year. Applications for BoI privileges in the first five months totalled 200 billion baht, up from 115 billion in the same period last year.

that realy prooves the point about investors confidence.

From a net buy position of five billion baht in 2004, foreign investors purchased over 200 billion in Thai stocks in 2005 and 83 billion in 2006. Foreign net buying in the first four months totalled 85 billion baht.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand index is expected to trade between 750 and 780 by the end of the year, but could gain to 840 to 880 within the next 12 months, according to Kasikorn Securities.

''Foreign investors know what is happening in our country. They are not worried about investment in equity market as they know the Thai market very well and can separate the stock market from politics,'' Mr Vichate said at an investment seminar organised by Kasikornbank.

crisis??? what crisis ???

[solo siam]

I take a look around me and I just can't see any crisis, the GROWTH rate is slower than some previous years. but its still growth - I think there's still plenty of room for the Asian economies to nearly catch up to for example Japan.

Rubbish

IMHO you can't compare Japan and Thailand.

Just wait until the repo guys shows up, and then you have your growth. A country relying on 70% export and foreign investment, only has two choices: take their losses, or start their print presses. In other contries that is called a crise, with a capitol C

But lending is slowing down here and the interest rate is very low and has been dropping for the past year, how would these two things combined with a positive GDP increase on year lead to repo men showing up? doesn't make any sense to me.

This is what I don't understand about the doom and gloom merchants, half of you are saying that Thailand is heading down the pan because people borrow too much, the other half are saying its because people aren't borrowing enough.

Also doesn't China rely more on export and foreign investment than Thailand, Have they started their printing presses yet or are they just taking their losses.

[hammered]

For this survey to be released by any surveying institution it would have met certain statistical criteria making it as valid or invalid as any other similar survey. Why doesnt somebody just contact the surveying body and ask for the stats on the survey? It may also interest some to look at the methods too. Then you will know things like the level of confidence, +/- error and a variety of other stuff. To just try and judge the validity of any survey based on a short newspaper report is highly questionable. At the moment this is just degenarating into an amateurish arguement based on very questionable assumptions.

Agree with you some of the way regarding the stat inference and confidence rates.

Thing is though if respondents were chosen in a certain way all the stats in the world will not negate it being skewed.

Were they chosen randomly - were they randomised ;-)))

I know a double blind randomised study is not the way to go here but you get what I mean

Personally, as I think I mention, I would look at the methods too! Get your point. Lets hope it is an end to this.

[quiksilva]

Actually you cant draw any conclusions about the investors who did not respond, at all.

Actually, we can and do draw conclusion from this massive slap in the face to the pollsters.

It's a matter of held opinions and confidence, which counts for a lot in business. Hard facts are hard to come by in this media savvy era so it counts for much much more than you give it credit for.

Well I suppose you could draw conclusions but that doesn't mean they would be correct.

In addition to maybe saying I have no wish to express an opinion because business is bad and the world will end tomorrow, the executives could just as easily be too busy to address a poll some university sent them, or perhaps it never even landed on their desk.

The point is they did not respond one way or the other, so any conclusion you draw is really your own opinion and nothing more.

You appear to kind of understand what you wrote there but your bias against me and others on here pulls you up short of agreeing with us - which you virtually have!

Last time. In the absence of fact, people draw conclusions from whatever data is available.

You have nailed the original story as well, as that is purely their conclusions and opinions on the matter. We all have our own opinions and are entitled to them equally.

Nobody from the busniness community will have failed to draw an opinion from this, whether pro or con.

No bias here at all, so please don't put me into one corner or the other. I try to retain a flexible outlook, I am not going to tell you that it is all lollipops and roses, its not, but its certainly is not a crisis. Now 1997 was a crisis, and anyone who was here at that time can attest that its a very different situation today. Its slow but not THAT slow. So if I have any 'bias' that would be it.

All I am doing is merely questioning the validity of drawing opinions on a particular portion of a survey for which there is no data.

To my mind an opinion based on no data is, as interesting as though it might be, not much more than an educated guess and worth about the same.