The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[bingobongo]

hmmm.....local banks and local investors are net sellers, whereas net buyers are foreigners.......this is a pure spec play.......oh this will get interesting once all the foreign money runs

from SET stock ight as of June 22, 2007

Yearly Cumulative since 1 January 2007

Unit: M.Baht

Investor Type Buy Value % Sell Value % Value

Local Individual 704,044.94 45.93 781,225.55 50.96 -77,180.61 -

Local Institution 194,393.89 12.68 212,871.29 13.89 -18,477.39 -

Foreign 634,452.57 41.39 538,794.57 35.15 95,658.00 -

http://www.set.or.th/set/investortype.do?l...&country=US

Edited June 22, 2007 by bingobongo

[JR Texas]

For the benefit of 90% of all Thais, the economy is far better now than it was 30 years ago; and 20 years ago, and 10 years ago, and five years ago - well, that was a pretty good time with an elected government so you really can't compare. Wait another 10 or 20 years and you will see even more improvement in quality of life for average Thais.

JR Texas: 90% of all Thais could see an increase in 1 baht per year income over time, and your statement would remain true.

My point is that the "income/wealth pie" is primarily being eaten by less than 10% of the Thai population (actually, 1% control virtually all of the pie). The rest, whether they are better off or not, are getting almost nothing.

The so-called "Thai economy" is primarily confined to a strip of land stretching from Bangkok to Rayong. That is the THAI ECONOMY. The vast majority live outside of this narrow strip and most have not benefited much from economic growth in the past. Those living outside of the urban areas are increasingly living "hand to mouth."

So, we can read about economic growth......blah, blah, blah.......but it means little to the majority of Thais. But it does mean something to those at the top of the corporate-political-military triangle of power who are the main beneficiaries of economic growth.

One last comment: If the public continues to support politicians that do not place massive population reduction and the development and deployment of a totally new energy system as the world's top priorities, then Thailand and the rest of the world will see a serious decline in quality of life.

[Jai Dee]

PM affirms Govt. tries best to boost investor confidence

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont affirms the government has continuously implemented economic measures to boost investor confidence.

The premier says during a television program interview today (June, 23rd) that the government has tried to increase investor confidence due to the Southern unrest and political instability. The government’s effort is seen by closer and more economic cooperation between Thailand and its trading partners.

The Prime Minister is scheduled to visit Japan, China, and India this year to further the previous governments’ foreign economic policies.

As for measures to stimulate the domestic economy, Gen. Surayud says the government has injected about five billion baht for the implementation of the strategy of well-being society. The money will be allocated to villages which have concrete projects aimed to raise the standard of life of the residents. The village committees will manage the projects under the supervision of the authority. He adds that the government has a plan to inject two billion baht more for the villages in the next two months. The strategy of the well-being society will last until next year.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 23 June 2007

[Mid]

Finance Ministry sees economic growth over 4 per cent

BANGKOK, June 23 (TNA) - Thailand's Ministry of Finance is confident that the country's economic growth in 2007 will exceed 4 per cent due to higher confidence on the part of investors as the general election moves closer and exports continue to enjoy sustainable growth.

MCOT Public Company Limited

small dose of realism creeping in ......................

[soundman]

One last comment: If the public continues to support politicians that do not place massive population reduction and the development and deployment of a totally new energy system as the world's top priorities, then Thailand and the rest of the world will see a serious decline in quality of life.

While this is probably a wise sentiment - realistically never to be on the agenda in the foreseeable future of Thai politics.

Soundman.

[LaoPo]

.......Gen. Surayud says the government has injected about five billion baht for the implementation of the strategy of well-being society. The money will be allocated to villages which have concrete projects aimed to raise the standard of life of the residents. The village committees will manage the projects under the supervision of the authority. He adds that the government has a plan to inject two billion baht more for the villages in the next two months. The strategy of the well-being society will last until next year.

Hmmm...clever propaganda from the interim government, prior to the new constitution poll and new election...

Can anyone confirm that the mentioned 5 Billion Baht has indeed already been 'injected' to the villages...?

Maybe they learned a bit from the previous government as how to please the rural people -prior to the election- ?

LaoPo

[Mid]

suspect that those of us who dared dream of any improvement best get ready for a bitter pill .

Edited June 23, 2007 by Mid

[Jai Dee]

Asia's Uneven Recovery

Rebound From Currency Crisis Strong in South Korea, Weaker In Thailand, Indonesia

Ten years ago, a plunge in the Thai baht sparked a wave of recessions across Asia's high-flying economies, bankrupting entire nations, putting millions out of work and shaking markets around the world. Some feared that decades of growth would be lost.

Today, the region as a whole has bounced back from the 1997-98 crisis and is better equipped to deal with financial emergencies. Banking is more transparent, corporations are better managed, poverty rates have dropped and the region's collective economic growth has doubled.

Still, the recovery has been uneven. The three countries hit hardest by the crisis that began July 2, 1997 - Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea - have charted sharply divergent paths during the past 10 years, reflecting their differing responses to the crisis and their policies since then.

South Korea, which received a humiliating $58 billion bailout arranged by the International Monetary Fund, quickly cleaned up its banking system and started reforming its heavily indebted family-owned conglomerates. The economy shrank and the jobless rate soared, but by 1999 it was robustly growing again.

The crisis, though painful, forced South Korea to make changes that paved the way for more stable long-term growth. Today it is one of Asia's powerhouses, led by Samsung Electronics Co., the world's biggest memory chip maker, and Hyundai Motor Co.

Indonesia, however, has struggled. The crisis helped bring about the downfall of former dictator Suharto and greater political freedom, but the economy remains beset by rampant corruption, a weak legal system and limited foreign investment. Economic growth has been ticking along at about 5.5 percent during the past two years, but unemployment is rising.

Thailand hovers somewhere in between. Bangkok, where hundreds of skyscrapers froze in mid-construction when the crisis erupted, now has an elevated Skytrain, a subway, a brand new airport and dozens of glitzy malls. Japanese investment has made Thailand a major auto and electronics exporting hub.

But a rise in the baht and political uncertainty caused by a tainted election in 2006 and a military coup last September has restrained growth.

In the wake of the crisis, Thai authorities shut down dozens of insolvent financial firms, vastly improved banking supervision and updated archaic bankruptcy laws. However, it can still take years for creditors to pursue claims, and further reforms of laws governing bankruptcy and repossession of assets from recalcitrant debtors have not gone beyond the drafting stage.

"Korea restructured its financial sector, but the problem in Thailand has been the inconsistency of reforms," said Sompop Manarangsan, a professor of economics at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "This is not good for the longer term."

Investors got a flashback to the 1997 crisis in December, when the Thai central bank imposed capital controls in an attempt to weaken the currency, sending stocks plummeting 15 percent in one day and rattling regional markets.

Authorities quickly exempted stocks and foreign direct investment from the rules, helping the market bounce back. Investors were also reassured to know that Thailand had $65 billion in foreign currency reserves, far more than in 1997.

Still, Thailand's bungled effort to impose capital controls underscore the lingering challenges that Asia's emerging economies face in handling international money flows in search of higher returns.

It was the dramatic outflow of funds from Thailand that forced the central bank on July 2, 1997, to finally cut the baht's peg to the dollar, causing the Thai currency to plummet, triggering the crisis.

Unlike today, many Thai companies at that time were burdened with huge dollar-denominated debts. When the local currency plunged, the value of those loans suddenly ballooned in baht terms, forcing many companies to go bankrupt.

That kindled speculative pressures that also forced currencies in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Korea to fall, driving more companies out of business, including one of South Korea's largest conglomerates, the Daewoo Group.

The turmoil rippled around the world, affecting markets as far away as Brazil and Russia.

In ensuing months, the IMF orchestrated emergency loans of $17 billion for Thailand, $50 billion for Indonesia and $58 billion for South Korea and imposed austerity measures, such as raising interest rates and cutting public spending that many believe exacerbated the crisis.

Since then, Asian nations have taken steps to protect themselves by bulking up their foreign currency reserves and setting up regional agreements to supply emergency funds through bilateral currency swaps.

South Korea's effective use of the IMF funds to repair banks' balance sheets and moves to improve corporate transparency set the stage for a rapid recovery. After contracting 7 percent in 1998, the economy jumped 9.5 percent in 1999.

Many of the major conglomerates survived, but not without changes. The Samsung Group streamlined its business structure, shedding its automobile unit and reforming its financial structure by reducing debt. The Daewoo Group, however, collapsed spectacularly under mountains of debt.

South Korea also responded by opening its economy wider to foreign investors, bringing changes virtually unimaginable before the crisis.

For example, U.S. private equity fund Newbridge Capital in late 1999 purchased a controlling stake in Korea First Bank, becoming the first foreign investor to acquire a South Korean financial institution.

But the outlook for Indonesia - hardest hit by the crisis - is mixed.

The turmoil accompanying Suharto's ouster in 1998 made it difficult for authorities to tackle structural problems in the economy, ranging from bad lending practices to corruption.

Today, greater investment in factories, roads and ports is needed to achieve economic growth of more than 7 percent _ the minimum level needed, experts say, to create enough jobs to put a dent in unemployment, now about 10 percent.

"The country is still dealing with the long-term fallout from the crisis," said Peter McCawley, an expert on the Indonesian economy at the Australian National University.

Progress on improving the investment climate has been patchy, and many businesses prefer to locate factories elsewhere in Southeast Asia, where wages are lower, setting up is easier and corruption is less of a problem.

Exploration for Indonesia's vast copper, gold and zinc deposits remains dormant despite record metal prices. Companies say it is too risky investing millions when there is no certainty that they will later be able to mine the metals. A mining law aimed at ensuring legal certainty for investors is still being debated in parliament.

Source: AP - 23 June 2007

[geriatrickid]

Remember the decision in respect to violate patents on several drugs? It aint going away. Several research projects are due to be cancelled as funding will be cut off. The pharma companies that feel that they have been screwed are furious and are reviewing all sorts of legal measures to protect the billions of dollars of investments that went into the research that made those drugs available. Folks thought it was just big pharma that was worried about losing profits (it wasn't, because the drugs were sold for significantlyless than in the west) the reality is that there is a considerable fear that the over prescribing of drugs will render them useless as the medications will not be used within the prescribed regime. This has caused some in the industry to suggest a refusal to provide other drugs into Thailand. As well, several drugs that were available at reduced cost are to see their costs increased to world market levels. More importantly, the pharma issue is being raised at debt refinancing meetings and being used to justify some very strict refinancing requirements on the premise that the local environment requires tough measures. The lesson to be learned is that popular decisions can lead to dire consequences. Wait until the debt refinancing discussions get going in the fall, you aint seen nothing yet.

Looking for a quick fix to Thailand's ills? Eliminate corruption. Do that and the GDP will surge.

Doesn't cost anything, increases public satisfaction and reduces costs to everyone.

What;s that you say? I should write a script for some antipsychotic meds and dose myself?

yea, well I'm allowed to dream.

Edited June 23, 2007 by geriatrickid

[Mid]

Looking for a quick fix to Thailand's ills? Eliminate corruption. Do that and the GDP will surge.

Doesn't cost anything, increases public satisfaction and reduces costs to everyone.

What;s that you say? I should write a script for some antipsychotic meds and dose myself?

yea, well I'm allowed to dream.

can I join you in one of those scripts ?

[meom]

Looking for a quick fix to Thailand's ills? Eliminate corruption. Do that and the GDP will surge.

Doesn't cost anything, increases public satisfaction and reduces costs to everyone.

What;s that you say? I should write a script for some antipsychotic meds and dose myself?

yea, well I'm allowed to dream.

I don't think that'll be a quick fix since the whole population from the lowest paid worker to the highest government official is basically corrupt. It's ingrained in their culture and it'll take a lot of time, education and money to change their mind set.

A lot of people admire their corrupt officials and bickering usually starts not because anybody want to root out corruption but because they want their equal share of tea money or whatever you call it.

[jomama]

I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.

But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.

We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.

General thoughts:

It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.

Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.

So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.

You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.

They are simply out of their league.

Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.

[JR Texas]

I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.

But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.

We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.

General thoughts:

It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.

Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.

So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.

You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.

They are simply out of their league.

Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.

JR Texas: Just posted something on another thread about China and then saw your post. I lived in China and worked there as an academic for about one year. Now I am working as an academic in Thailand.

From my perspective, the university system in Thailand is a bad joke. The university system in China is far superior.......it is simply not possible for Thai students to compete with Chinese students (all things being equal).

Thailand is regressing at high speed........China is moving forward at high speed.

[Jai Dee]

Strong baht hurts Thailand’s export-related industries

Current strengthening of the Thai currency, the baht, has hurt the country’s export-related industries as well as the gross domestic product (GDP), a ranking industry ministry official said.

Nattapol Nattasomboon, deputy director-general of Industrial Economics Office, quoted a study conducted recently by his office which cited that if the baht strengthened by another 10 per cent, the country’s GDP would lower to 3.09 per cent from 4 per cent projected earlier.

And every volatility of the baht at one per cent will hurt national GDP by approximately 0.1 per cent and the industrial GDP at 0.09 per cent, said Mr. Nattapol.

Other sectors which will be impacted include declines in public consumption to 1.87 from 2.36 per cent, private investment to 0.13 from 0.59 per cent and exports to 8.49 from 13.23 per cent, he said.

On the other hand, imports will rise to 9.34 from 7.28 per cent.

But GDP could jump marginally to 3.26 per cent from an assumption that it would retreat to 3.09 per cent if labour and capital productivity rose which could cushion the impact from the strong baht, he said.

Since the beginning of 2006 up till now, the baht has appreciated more than 15 per cent against the US dollar, causing Thai manufacturing industries which have to depend on exports to have been impacted significantly. Thai industries which have been affected most are food, textile and furniture.

By late Friday, the baht moved at around Bt34.58-34.61 against the dollar on the onshore market compared to Bt34.59-34.62 on Thursday.

Source: TNA - 24 June 2007

[midas]

Thailand is regressing at high speed........China is moving forward at high speed.

When I came back the Thailand from a vsit to Beijing last January I had the same gut feeling.

[plachon]

Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

Can you??

I certainly can't and I suspect neither can 99 % of the people on this Forum. So kindly post us a picture of your latest weaving creation, just to prove the veracity of your claims.

[LaoPo]

I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.

But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.

We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.

General thoughts:

It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.

Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.

So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.

You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.

They are simply out of their league.

Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.

JR Texas: Just posted something on another thread about China and then saw your post. I lived in China and worked there as an academic for about one year. Now I am working as an academic in Thailand.

From my perspective, the university system in Thailand is a bad joke. The university system in China is far superior.......it is simply not possible for Thai students to compete with Chinese students (all things being equal).

Thailand is regressing at high speed........China is moving forward at high speed.

Jomama & JR Texas:

JR, you know that I do not always agree with you, but I'm really sorry to say (for Thailand's sake) that I have to fully agree with you and Jomama this time.

This is not Thailand bashing but merely looking at the reality.

But, IMHO there's a big difference between Thailand & China.

Both countries are -economically- run by Chinese. (not talking politics here).

The Thai/Chinese however are self protective regarding their power, wealth, companies and families and do nothing to improve the lives of the rural people; on the contrary I would say; they just use them as a low-paid workforce.

In the meantime they send their children to the best possibly Universities, worldwide. Nothing wrong with that, but wouldn't it be a more smart thing to improve their own school- and University system ?

NO, because 'they' prefer to keep it that way....

This attitude however, will bounce back on them...sooner or later, but it will !

The mainland Chinese are a kind of entrepreneurial people and grab every little chance to improve their own lives, start a small business of their own, are extremely hard working people, unlike the Thai...., and do everything possible to help their families, whether in the cities or rural areas. They are even amongst the highest (if not the highest) saving populations, worldwide.

Poorer than poor, rural, people come to the cities and will do literally anything to improve their lives; I see people in the streets with handwritten signs:

"will clean your house"

"will clean your bike"

"will do anything...for little money"

I might be wrong, but I never saw anything like that in Thailand....am I wrong? If so: I apologize !

But, for a more laidback living/holiday and fun life for Farang...Thailand for sure.

But that doesn't really help the majority of Thai, does it?

LaoPo

[jomama]

I certainly can't and I suspect neither can 99 % of the people on this Forum. So kindly post us a picture of your latest weaving creation, just to prove the veracity of your claims.

I said anyone can if that's all they have to do. No disrespect, but that's a simple task. I can do it I'm sure. Unfortunately for the basket world I don't have the time to devote and unveil my latest creations -- I'm doing that in another industry.

[cclub75]

Strong baht hurts Thailand’s export-related industries

Current strengthening of the Thai currency, the baht, has hurt the country’s export-related industries as well as the gross domestic product (GDP), a ranking industry ministry official said.

People must be confused... Last week we read : "exports in may, best month ever" etc. And now, they are talking about exports being hurt by strong THB...

Paradox ? Nope. If you look at a proper chart, per quarter. In USD and THB as well.

http://thaicrisis.files.wordpress.com/2007...qexportthai.jpg

Since Q3 2006, we are clearly on a "plateau" in USD. And exports are declining in THB (in value)...

Q1 2007 has the same pattern. Q2 could be troubled by... june (after a strong month of may).

I think the minister is preparing the field for some bitter news.

The ping pong game shall continue.

Edited June 24, 2007 by cclub75

[Mid]

ABAC Poll: Most Thais oppose anti-government rally

BANGKOK, June 24 (TNA) – As many as 71.2 per cent of all respondents in a recent public opinion survey disagreed with the anti-government rally currently being held in Bangkok, and only15.5 per cent supported the demonstrators.

snip

According to Mr. Noppadol, nearly three out of four persons, 70.5 per cent, said they were not confident that measures implemented by the government to solve the economic crisis within six months would succeed if political turbulence persists, and only one in four -- 26.7 per cent -- said they were quite certain that the government's economic stimuli would be able to boost the economy. (TNA) - E111

and these days 4% GDP is being touted as a positive ..............

crisis , what crisis

[highdiver]

ABAC Poll: Most Thais oppose anti-government rally

BANGKOK, June 24 (TNA) – As many as 71.2 per cent of all respondents in a recent public opinion survey disagreed with the anti-government rally currently being held in Bangkok, and only15.5 per cent supported the demonstrators.

snip

According to Mr. Noppadol, nearly three out of four persons, 70.5 per cent, said they were not confident that measures implemented by the government to solve the economic crisis within six months would succeed if political turbulence persists, and only one in four -- 26.7 per cent -- said they were quite certain that the government's economic stimuli would be able to boost the economy. (TNA) - E111

and these days 4% GDP is being touted as a positive ..............

crisis , what crisis

I belive you got the answer allready from Samran on another thread where you attempted to shade the reality in those dooms days predictions.

"To suggest that economy should continue gangbuster-ish growth is both irresponsible and ignores important factors such as inflation and wage and factor cost explosions.

I mean, you didn't even look at it hard enough did you? It is the Net Exports column you should be look at, which takes into account exports minus imports. In that case, net exports only account for 14.7% of GDP, not 65%. Meaning that 85% of the Thai economy has no reliance whatsoever on exports! I mean, there is even a big fugg-off equation at the top of the ADB web page telling you how to calculate GDP properly! But hey, don't let that get in the way of a good 'economic' argument shall we - especially when that beer is getting cold and there are bills to pay.

I mean, isn't a recession two successive quarters of negative growth?? And what have we got? 4.3% growth with upgraded forecasts in the high 4 percent range! I mean really!"

never mind next post you willbe better. .

[Mid]

upgraded forecasts in the high 4 percent range! I mean really!"

come back to me with cites ,

or

keep sipping the kool-aid.

really

[highdiver]

upgraded forecasts in the high 4 percent range! I mean really!"

come back to me with cites ,

or

keep sipping the kool-aid.

really

the second bullet dodging today...

never mind catch you later

[Mid]

happy searching , there not out there ,

really.

[chinthee]

happy searching , there not out there ,

really.

Mid, really old chap, the dogs of war are circling. Don't want to back off just a bit?

[Mid]

Don't want to back off just a bit?

??

[chinthee]

Don't want to back off just a bit?

??

Let him have it boys.

[Mid]

Don't want to back off just a bit?

??

Let him have it boys.

hey , here's a bone

Thailand GDP - real growth rate

pitty about the disclaimer at the bottom.

[LaoPo]

Bloomberg news today:

"Thai consumer confidence at lowest point since 5 years, in May"

"Elections: the people want peace, democracy and on the way to a better future than they see/experience now...(since the coup)"

LaoPo

Edited June 25, 2007 by LaoPo

[Steely Dan]

I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.

But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.

We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.

General thoughts:

It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.

Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.

So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.

You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.

They are simply out of their league.

Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.

If I may say you have hit the nail on it's proverbial head. The last i's are being dotted and t's being crossed for the current economic cycle and when slowdown becomes recession Thailand stainds zero chance in a fair fight with either China or Vietnam. I think the powers that be here know this only too well and therefore try to stop the tide with a raft of protectionist and discriminatory measures.

Thailand has a future much like it's past as banana republicanism stifles any change. Whilst Vietnam joins the WTO and plans many English language call centers Thailand makes things ever harder for English teachers to teach legally here, even for the pittance they get. By 2012 I think Thailand will be welcoming back the flip-flop wearing beer swilling backpackers with open arms as they will be about the only foreign tourists still interested in coming.