The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[soundman]

After perusing a report from the BOT linked by Samran in business forum, I have come to the conclusion that the Thai economy is gathering momentum towards recession. Here.

Domestic consumption is in recession allready.

The gap between imports & exports has widened considerably in the last two qtrs. giving a false net effect of growth on GDP.

The reason this is false is there is between a 2 - 6 month turnaround on value added product. Current exports mainly from old stock & 3 - 6 month old orders. The amount of new orders is decreasing & subsequently less stock is being imported. Another 3 - 6 months, when all this catches up, imports may well outway exports with a drastic effect on GDP.

Soundman.

[chinthee]

I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.

But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.

We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.

General thoughts:

It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.

Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.

So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.

You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.

They are simply out of their league.

Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.

If I may say you have hit the nail on it's proverbial head. The last i's are being dotted and t's being crossed for the current economic cycle and when slowdown becomes recession Thailand stainds zero chance in a fair fight with either China or Vietnam. I think the powers that be here know this only too well and therefore try to stop the tide with a raft of protectionist and discriminatory measures.

Thailand has a future much like it's past as banana republicanism stifles any change. Whilst Vietnam joins the WTO and plans many English language call centers Thailand makes things ever harder for English teachers to teach legally here, even for the pittance they get. By 2012 I think Thailand will be welcoming back the flip-flop wearing beer swilling backpackers with open arms as they will be about the only foreign tourists still interested in coming.

Without being too provocative, there is a lot of real substance in jomama's post. My eyes glaze over reading (glancing at) some of these analysts argue over the most inane minutiae on this subforum.

The real fundamental changes emanating from China will be systemically extremely disrupting to the economies that don't adjust, and Thailand is in danger of being marginalized, as I don't see the country adjusting. The auto industry is healthy, and tourism, and even the export market at the moment. I don't agree with Steely Dan's fear mongering, but even Vietnam, with all the fundamental restructuring it is doing to accomodate foreign investment and engagement will suffer from China's effect soon enough.

The vast amount of direct foreign investment, venture capital and private equity that has gone into and continues to flood into China & now India, combined with the drying up of such funds and players from Thailand (over the past few years, not just since the coup) has me very concerned as I wish to continue living here and do not want to find out what this country would look like in another serious downturn.

[Mid]

Don't want to back off just a bit?

??

Let him have it boys.

[chinthee]

Don't want to back off just a bit?

??

Let him have it boys.

keep holding on to your tag. We'll call your number shortly. Though, may have to wait til tomorrow depending on work.

[Mid]

[soundman]

I don't get it.

Is that the yellow brick road or superman's summer hide away in the BG?

Soundman.

[Mid]

right first time.

[chinthee]

I don't get it.

Is that the yellow brick road or superman's summer hide away in the BG?

Soundman.

It's been a long time since I saw Dorothy and Toto. But seems to me that she also ran into a lot of trolls.

[Mid]

and so the messanger attacks begin ??

[Steely Dan]

Lol! The caption should read Wizard required, could interested parties please apply to the military government. Meanwhile outside the fishtank death star rolls ever closer to planet Creditbubble.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...24/cnbis124.xml

[midas]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...24/cnbis124.xml[/url]

Oh dear................Surely if this happens as described it will be worse this time around because in

the 1930's and 1990's we didnt have half as many derivatives in the system

which has caused in an incredible tangled web of financial instruments

[bingobongo]

the Defenders of the Realm will like this picture, but alas, sukhumvit road is never this empty, it is never this repaired, there are no food carts in this picture, and there is actual grass growing due to the lack of pollution......this is a beautiful picture that the rainbows and lollipops gang need

what is the green building in the back? the new airport?

[cclub75]

The dirty laundry of the junta is coming back at the surface... People forget so easily. It's a shame.

The Foreign Business Act 2 is back. Well... actually, it never went away.

The Nation prints an article from a lawyer... but who was also former deputy commerce minister. That could give him some credit.

Anyway, this guy tells us that NLA is working hard with the Commerce ministry to finalize the process and other legal amendements about FBA 2. And "the new law is likely to come into effect in October ."

Just before the general elections. How convenient.

The newspaper doesn't forget to add : "Thailand's foreign business communities, including many chambers of commerce, are waiting anxiously for developments in the current passage of the amended Foreign Business Act through the National Legislative Assembly (NLA). "

At last, some realism. And a good reminder to the people with... short memory.

You'll love FBA 2. It's probably the best anti business weapon the junta has designed so far.

And certainly not a tool to bring back the confidence, to boost the economy, to put foreign investors at ease and other magical spells that some people continue to believe here with a charming naiveness.

For the details, you'll find many threads on TV about FBA 2 and its content...

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/26...ss_30037783.php

Edited June 25, 2007 by cclub75

[chinthee]

Don't want to back off just a bit?

??

Let him have it boys.

keep holding on to your tag. We'll call your number shortly. Though, may have to wait til tomorrow depending on work.

Ok, coming back to Mr. Wizard, as I'm fairly new to this forum and to be honest haven't read this thread (apologies for that) in it's entirety but let's try to isolate and examine Mid's contentions here.

As I understand Mid's assertion, and he cites the real GDP growth rate of Thailand 2003-2007, and this shows Year on year losses for the last two years, and a slight uptick this year maybe, but he generally believes things are going to hel_l in a handbasket. I believe as a defender of all things democratic, he is arguing that absent a true democracy and transparency Thailand's growth will continue to erode. You reap what you sow, etc.. I think the logical extension of that argument is that since we'll assuredly have a flawed democracy for perhaps a decade to come, that basically the economy will tank or at least be listing badly in the water for years to come?

Meanwhile, other bulls on this subforum seem to be arguing that Thailand's GDP growth rate can't be compared to China or others and that 4% is respectable and sustainable.

I guess I accept some of Mid's thinking, but for different reasons. I don't think you need democracy for growth. You need leaders with brains. I don't see the economy tanking, but I do see a lower real GDP for a number of years. Some of the reasons are internal, many of the reasons will be the marginalization of Thailand by China and India over a longer term on many levels. I don't have the time or inclination to cite sources for this, but there appear to be a lot of smart guys/gals on this forum who do this for a living if you're so inclined.

One thing for sure, I agree with strategy analysts* who say "...the success of China's model of economic development without political representation, which some have termed the "Beijing Consensus", suggest it as an alternative model of Asian values. This has been further reinforced by the precarious nature of Asia's democracies, as evinced by a military coup in Thailand, unpopular ruling governments that are subject to scandal in the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan, and authoritarian democracies in Singapore and Malaysia."

The question is whether whatever democracy is installed in the near future can get the right policies in place. In this case, I believe the adminstration that is least saddled with being "representative" a la China, could be the best. Whoever the next PM is, he should study Lee Kwan Yew and Singapore. Let's just hope the next one is benevolent.

Don't think that makes Mid happy.

* The search for an Asian face By Chietigj Bajpaee

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/IF21Dk01.html

[cclub75]

I don't think you need democracy for growth. You need leaders with brains. I don't see the economy tanking, but I do see a lower real GDP for a number of years.

Bravo for your analysis.

Thailand is following the "chinese model"

-authoritarism

-exports driven

-currency manipulation (obvious for RMB, through the backdoor for THB)

-cheating regarding foreign business interests (breach of IP rights, anti foreigners law like FBA 2 etc.)

However, we have 2 big differences :

-China has brains. Even in the "former" Communist party. And they are hungry (to succeed, to go forward etc.)

Thailand is sweet and cool, laidback, and the intellectual level of the "elite" is much lower

-China can follow this policy (that i call "The FxxxK You Policy", against the West). Because its market is so huge. The point : even if we don't agree... we have no choice. Zero.

But Thailand ? Ah ah ah.

[Mid]

Whoever the next PM is, he should study Lee Kwan Yew and Singapore.

a man who's on record as saying all men aren't equal , no thanxs

ps your assessment has validity

[chinthee]

Whoever the next PM is, he should study Lee Kwan Yew and Singapore.

a man who's on record as saying all men aren't equal , no thanxs

ps your assessment has validity

I know, and my personal hero is Thomas Jefferson. But that doesn't work in the 21st century in Asia.

[Mid]

But that doesn't work in the 21st century in Asia.

was it ever given a chance ?

rhetorical question .

[chinthee]

But that doesn't work in the 21st century in Asia.

was it ever given a chance ?

rhetorical question .

I'm sorry, but outside of Australia and New Zealand, we'll never find out...

[bingobongo]

thats it, plunder the coffers and strengthen the police state, and to hel_l with the rest of the population......what a truly magical time......welcome to your police state

DEFENCE MINISTRY

Spending to rise 24%

Budget may anger anti-coup groups

the Defence Ministry is also in the middle of a capital-expenditure project (to increase the quality and performance of the armed forces)

Defence Ministry projects requiring an additional budget from fiscal 2008 on.

1. Residential units/facilities: Bt1.65 billion

2. New office building: Bt253.84 million

3. Capital-expenditure project: Bt750 million

4. Communications network: Bt890.42 million

5. Council for National Security: Bt152.6 million

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/27...ss_30037872.php

Edited June 26, 2007 by bingobongo

[bingobongo]

oh well, at least the junta is buying cameras "to ensure safety" of the population.....

Slow-down in sales of digital cameras

Thailand's political and economic difficulties have resulted in a shrinking demand for digital cameras - the first slow-down in the product's history.

"Digital cameras are a sensitive commodity and quickly affected when consumers have lower confidence in the country and their future," he said.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/06/27...ss_30037884.php

[Jai Dee]

DPM Kosit says GDP of 2008 will achieve 5% growth

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry Kosit Panpiemras (โฆสิต ปั้นเปี่ยมรัษฏ์) expresses confidence that next year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 5% and the interim government will be able to hand over the strong economy to the next government.

Mr Kosit says further that the government will be able to stimulate the domestic consumption and spend the total bonus of 6.8 billion baht to bureaucrats during the third quarter of this year. In addition, the government will also distribute a budget of more than five billion baht to communities across the country for the implementation of the strategy of well-being society. It is scheduled to approve two billion baht more for the strategy on June 29th.

As for measures to stimulate the economy, the minister says the government has set plans to use the money of five billion baht the last government allocated to fund the now defunct projects to boost the economy. Mr Kosit also indicates that the mega-projects of the PTT Plc. as well as the bidding for the electric train route-extension will help the economy rebound at the end of this year.

At the same time, the minister says he is confident that the government’s measures to stimulate the economy will not make the country to face another round of economic bubble and affirms that foreign investors are still confident to invest in Thailand.

Meanwhile, president of the Foreign Chamber of Commerce, Peter John Van Haren, says he believes that there will be more foreign investments in Thailand during the second half of the year. However, he suggests that the government should expedite solutions to ongoing political problems and improve laws concerning foreign investment.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 27 June 2007

[Jai Dee]

FPO expects Thailand's economy to grow in the second half of this year

The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) expects Thailand’s economy in the second half of this year will begin to have a positive outlook as the political scene is set to appear more consistent along with increasing number of export, and low interest rates.

The FPO Director Panee Satawarodome (พรรณี สถาวโรดม) believes the overall economy in this year will remain at 3.8-4.3%. The export sector is remarked as the key factor to help propel the country’s economy, reporting the growth of export figure from the last month to 20.9% or approximately 13 US billion dollars. The key export products include electronics, automobile, and construction materials. Meanwhile, the figures of import have started to revive since April after facing sluggishness in the previous months.

Although, consumption and investment are reportedly slowing down, the statistics of demand have slightly increased. The national economy in the second half of this year will grow, but the strengthening of baht currency, the confidence of investors, and political situation have still have influence on the economy.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 27 June 2007

[Mid]

DPM Kosit says GDP of 2008 will achieve 5% growth

could be a 1/2 smart man ,

knew better than to touch '07 ...........................

[Mid]

Thai economy likely to pick up from now on, says FPO

Wednesday 27 June 2007 03:05:18 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, June 27 (TNA) – The Thai economy is expected to pick up from now on, boosted by an easing of political uncertainties, increased exports, acceleration of state budget disbursement, and downward interest rates, according to the Fiscal Policy Office.

FPO director-general Pannee Sathavarodom projected the economy would begin to recover because the political tension had eased and the exports continued to increase at a hefty level thanks to a higher-than-expected economic growth of the country’s trading partners.

At the same time, she said, the government had attempted to speed up the budget disbursement to stimulate the economy.

Also, the interest rate decline is expected to help jump-start the private consumption and investment.

However, she added, there remains certain risk factors to the country’s economy.

Included are the future baht appreciation, higher global oil prices, capital movement in the region, foreign investor confidence in Thailand, and southern unrest. (TNA) – E005

Included are the future baht appreciation, higher global oil prices, capital movement in the region, foreign investor confidence in Thailand, and southern unrest.

right then , that's those excuses off the table .............................................

not smart .

Edited June 27, 2007 by Mid

[jomama]

I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.

But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.

We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.

General thoughts:

It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.

Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.

So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.

You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.

They are simply out of their league.

Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.

Wow, I get to reply to myself...maybe I should go back on my medication (for those of you out there that don't see, that was just a joke).

I think one thing we have failed to talk about is people. To a man or woman the successful people I've met say people are the key to success in their companies -- the right people, of course. Invest in them, coach them, pay them, respect them, take care of them, listen to them. That's about as far away from the Thai model as you can get.

Thais have not developed in their people the skill sets to make the workers successful or even marginally happy (and compensated for it, which as we know helps a lot with day to day happiness). Instead they've gone for short-term personal gains. The irony is that they are actually damaging their own enterprises as they smile and think they drove salaries down or got 60 hours of thankless work at a low cost. Those of us who've lived in Thailand for a long time know that. So when the workers don't have the skills, of course the entire operation is shaky and cannot compete.

Thai owners just figure they'll hire five more (incompetent) workers. Man I've seen five unqualified workers make a mess of something that can take an equal five times the effort to unravel. And that's what's going on. Hence the chaos of Thailand.

General thoughts...

[jomama]

I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.

But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.

We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.

General thoughts:

It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.

Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.

So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.

You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.

They are simply out of their league.

Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.

Wow, I get to reply to myself...maybe I should go back on my medication (for those of you out there that don't see, that was just a joke).

I think one thing we have failed to talk about is people. To a man or woman the successful business people I've met say the colleague s are the key to success in their companies -- the right people, of course. Invest in them, coach them, pay them, respect them, take care of them, listen to them. That's about as far away from the Thai model as you can get.

Thais have not developed in their people the skill sets to make the workers successful or even marginally happy (and compensated for it, which as we know helps a lot with day to day happiness). Instead they've gone for short-term personal gains. The irony is that they are actually damaging their own enterprises as they smile and think they drove salaries down or got 60 hours of thankless work at a low cost. Those of us who've lived in Thailand for a long time know that. So when the workers don't have the skills, of course the entire operation is shaky and cannot compete.

Thai owners just figure they'll hire five more (incompetent) workers. Man I've seen five unqualified workers make a mess of something that can take an equal five times the effort to unravel. And that's what's going on. Hence the chaos of Thailand.

General thoughts...

[jomama]

I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.

But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.

We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.

General thoughts:

It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.

Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.

So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.

You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.

If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.

They are simply out of their league.

Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.

Wow, I get to reply to myself...maybe I should go back on my medication (for those of you out there that don't see, that was just a joke).

I think one thing we have failed to talk about is people. To a man or woman the successful business people I've met say the colleagues are the key to success in their companies -- the right people, of course. Invest in them, coach them, pay them, respect them, take care of them, listen to them. That's about as far away from the Thai model as you can get.

Thais have not developed in their people the skill sets to make the workers successful or even marginally happy (and compensated for it, which as we know helps a lot with day to day happiness). Instead they've gone for short-term personal gains. The irony is that they are actually damaging their own enterprises as they smile and think they drove salaries down or got 60 hours of thankless work at a low cost. Those of us who've lived in Thailand for a long time know that. So when the workers don't have the skills, of course the entire operation is shaky and cannot compete.

Thai owners just figure they'll hire five more (incompetent) workers. Man I've seen five unqualified workers make a mess of something that can take an equal five times the effort to unravel. And that's what's going on. Hence the chaos of Thailand.

General thoughts...

[chinthee]

Jomama,

I'm not sure how off topic this is getting, but your points about Thai workers is interesting. Even though it's not my profession, I was asked as a favour a few years ago to do some executive coaching to the CEO of the Thai operations of a well known large MNC.

I had a few sessions with him, expecting there to be leadership development type issues and the things I found him occupying his time with were astounding. His biggest issues were jockeying around with various petty political inter-office disputes among his non-performing subordinates, and after spending a lot of time with him, I decided I really couldn't help him.

I just kept scratching my head as to how he couldn't put his foot down with these warring factions, but it is just not at the lower level but also at upper levels where Thai culture and face do hinder corporate performance, at least what I've seen of it.

[SiriusBlack1]

Jomama, FWIW I find your comments intriguing too.

It's worth remembering that the age of the "tiger economies" began when China was too insulated as a Communist state to be a competitor. Now that China is capitalist in all but name, Thailand needs to find a new niche in the international economy. Vietnam can handle the low-end manufacturing, but Thailand is now too expensive for that. At the same time, Japanese manufacturers, who drove the growth in Thailand's auto industry, are finding they have to retool their quality systems because their laborers and managers don't have the sophistication that they can take for granted in Japan.

If Thailand wants to move up the ladder, education and modern management will be essential, as Singapore understood long ago. Too bad that even a junior high school education is still not a legal requirement in this country.