The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[LaoPo]

Thailand August consumer prices up 1.1 pct on yr; lowest rise in nearly 5 yrs

Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said.

From: http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/20...afx4076253.html

LaoPo

:D

I am totally and utterly confused by the contrary news...really unbelievable:

"Declining vegetable and fruit prices caused August inflation to grow by only 1.1% year-on-year, the lowest level in the past five years, the Commerce Ministry said yesterday."

"The ministry said the food and beverage price index fell 0.6%, largely driven by a 3.8% decrease in vegetable and fruit prices"

:D

From: http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/04Sep2007_biz36.php

Is there ANY source still trustworthy ?

How come Forbes' source is so far off the article in Bangkok Post ? Vegetable prices in August UP 23.5% versus DOWN 3.8%....

I need a coffee.

LaoPo

Edited September 4, 2007 by LaoPo

[cclub75]

Is there ANY source still trustworthy ?

How come Forbes' source is so far off the article in Bangkok Post ? Vegetable prices in August UP 23.5% versus DOWN 3.8%....

I need a coffee.

Have a sip of Nation... They have the same version than Forbes... More or less.

"In the food and beverage sector, prices increased by 4.3 per cent year on year due to a rise in the price of sticky rice, chicken, vegetables and fruit. Prices in the non-food and beverage sector decreased 0.7 per cent from the same period last year, mainly because of a drop of 5.2 per cent in fuel prices."

And soon we will have the full datas on BOT website (here).

Edited September 4, 2007 by cclub75

[chownah]

Forbes is for exported food and B.Post is for domestic?

[LaoPo]

Is there ANY source still trustworthy ?

How come Forbes' source is so far off the article in Bangkok Post ? Vegetable prices in August UP 23.5% versus DOWN 3.8%....

I need a coffee.

Have a sip of Nation... They have the same version than Forbes... More or less.

"In the food and beverage sector, prices increased by 4.3 per cent year on year due to a rise in the price of sticky rice, chicken, vegetables and fruit. Prices in the non-food and beverage sector decreased 0.7 per cent from the same period last year, mainly because of a drop of 5.2 per cent in fuel prices."

And soon we will have the full datas on BOT website (here).

That's even more confusing...:

Forbes' source (Ministry of Commerce) : Vegetable prices UP 23.5%

BKK Post: Vegetable prices DOWN 3.8%

Nation: Food/Beverage prices UP 4.3% (due to a.o. Vegetable prices)

Sigh...

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Fitch warns Thailand of economic volatility

London-based credit watchdog Fitch Ratings has warned Thailand and other Asian countries of the possible impact of the current global economic volatility on their economies although they have strong economic fundamentals.

Speaking at an annual seminar of Fitch Ratings (Thailand) Co, James McCormack, head of Asia Sovereigns at Fitch, said a return to normal political situation is considered crucial factor to the Thai economic recovery.

At present, Thailand's credit rating remains in an appropriate level, he said. Its economy is expected to grow 3.8 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year.

Fitch has placed Thailand's sovereign rating at BBB+, lower than those of Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China, and Malaysia, but higher than those of India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Mongolia.

Rest:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=121359

LaoPo

[ray23]

Lao Pao the answer is no there is no reliable source. These conflicting reports have been going on since day one. Land of Smoke and Mirrors, that alone should make people very nervous about investment, but apparently that is not the case.

[LaoPo]

Lao Pao the answer is no there is no reliable source. These conflicting reports have been going on since day one. Land of Smoke and Mirrors, that alone should make people very nervous about investment, but apparently that is not the case.

Yes, I realize that...it was more a rhetorical question.

It seems there is no coordination whatsoever between the several Ministries when reports are published; nobody checks the truth, they just send them out to the news agencies and they, on their turn, publish them, without checking as well...

TIT at it's finest.

LaoPo

[cclub75]

That's even more confusing...:

Forbes' source (Ministry of Commerce) : Vegetable prices UP 23.5%

BKK Post: Vegetable prices DOWN 3.8%

Nation: Food/Beverage prices UP 4.3% (due to a.o. Vegetable prices)

I believe Nation is talking about CPI (and its different components), look at BOT website.

In july for instance, the index for "rice and cereal products" was already up, compare to previous month. But "vegetables and fruits" down.

This page is a good reminder of the nature of CPI (what the media call "inflation") : it's an index, with differents components, each of them with a different weight.

Food represent 36 % of the thai CPI. Transportation 22 %. Housing 23 %.

By the way, the source for CPI is Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices : http://www.price.moc.go.th/

Their english website doesn't work...

[Carmine6]

Thailand August consumer prices up 1.1 pct on yr; lowest rise in nearly 5 yrs

Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said.

From: http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/20...afx4076253.html

LaoPo

:D

I am totally and utterly confused by the contrary news...really unbelievable:

"Declining vegetable and fruit prices caused August inflation to grow by only 1.1% year-on-year, the lowest level in the past five years, the Commerce Ministry said yesterday."

"The ministry said the food and beverage price index fell 0.6%, largely driven by a 3.8% decrease in vegetable and fruit prices"

:D

From: http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/04Sep2007_biz36.php

Is there ANY source still trustworthy ?

How come Forbes' source is so far off the article in Bangkok Post ? Vegetable prices in August UP 23.5% versus DOWN 3.8%....

I need a coffee.

LaoPo

I don't think there's anything inconsistent, just how the data is reported. The Thompson Financial (Forbes) article seems to be talking about the change in vegetable and fruit prices from July to August. The Bangkok Post article is talking about August 2007 compared to August 2006. The Thompson Financial article makes the mistake of not being clear in the period, which is misleading. The Bangkok Post is consistent in reporting the year over year data since it is the same period as the 1.1% overall figure.

Then The Nation jumps in with the food and beverage category of which vegetables and fruits are just 1 of 8 subcategories. I think this reporter did not understand the content of the news conference, mistaking the August increase for a year over year increase. Sticky rice and chicken are not categories in the reports so these might have been given as examples at the conference, but the reporter then took these statements and put them in the story.

The reporters are picking and choosing the statistics that fit their story. What they all should do is give more data. For example, Thompson Financial should have had the year over year data right after the monthly increase.

"Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said." Should have been "Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said. However, year over year they were down 3.8%."

I think maybe 95% of reporters don't understand economics and try to make regular sensationalistic stories out of economic data.

[LaoPo]

Thailand August consumer prices up 1.1 pct on yr; lowest rise in nearly 5 yrs

Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said.

From: http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/20...afx4076253.html

LaoPo

:D

I am totally and utterly confused by the contrary news...really unbelievable:

"Declining vegetable and fruit prices caused August inflation to grow by only 1.1% year-on-year, the lowest level in the past five years, the Commerce Ministry said yesterday."

"The ministry said the food and beverage price index fell 0.6%, largely driven by a 3.8% decrease in vegetable and fruit prices"

:D

From: http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/04Sep2007_biz36.php

Is there ANY source still trustworthy ?

How come Forbes' source is so far off the article in Bangkok Post ? Vegetable prices in August UP 23.5% versus DOWN 3.8%....

I need a coffee.

LaoPo

I don't think there's anything inconsistent, just how the data is reported. The Thompson Financial (Forbes) article seems to be talking about the change in vegetable and fruit prices from July to August. The Bangkok Post article is talking about August 2007 compared to August 2006. The Thompson Financial article makes the mistake of not being clear in the period, which is misleading. The Bangkok Post is consistent in reporting the year over year data since it is the same period as the 1.1% overall figure.

Then The Nation jumps in with the food and beverage category of which vegetables and fruits are just 1 of 8 subcategories. I think this reporter did not understand the content of the news conference, mistaking the August increase for a year over year increase. Sticky rice and chicken are not categories in the reports so these might have been given as examples at the conference, but the reporter then took these statements and put them in the story.

The reporters are picking and choosing the statistics that fit their story. What they all should do is give more data. For example, Thompson Financial should have had the year over year data right after the monthly increase.

"Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said." Should have been "Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said. However, year over year they were down 3.8%."

I think maybe 95% of reporters don't understand economics and try to make regular sensationalistic stories out of economic data.

Thanks.

It's very confusing indeed and the reporting sucks but we'll wait and see the reports from BoT; maybe they are more reliable.

LaoPo

[Carmine6]

Thanks.

It's very confusing indeed and the reporting sucks but we'll wait and see the reports from BoT; maybe they are more reliable.

LaoPo

Lol, I always think the actual numbers and zero interpretation by government officials and reporters are way more reliable.

[bingobongo]

maybe if they focus on selling rainbows and lollipops, things will improve

forget LOJ (land of junta), plenty of other places to park the dough....

Thai GDP May Grow at Slowest Pace in 2 Years as Spending Stalls

Thai consumers have cut spending on new houses, automobiles and other products amid street protests, hurting profit at companies such as C.P. 7-Eleven Pcl and Land & Houses Pcl.

:ohmy: Earnings at Land & Houses, the country's biggest homebuilder, fell 3.6 percent in the three months, following a 26 percent slide in the prior quarter. :ohmy:

Weaker U.S. demand is hurting Asian export-dependent economies, which are almost twice as reliant on sales abroad as the rest of the world.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Edited September 5, 2007 by bingobongo

[cclub75]

Bad news for the boiling room team....

It seems that exports in august were +6%, y-o-y, following the +5.9 % of july... Read on Nation.

Could it be a... trend ?

The exports engine for GDP growth is about to stop. Consumption and investment have already stopped.

What do we have now, left ? Government spendings. Yumi !

[Carmine6]

Bad news for the boiling room team....

It seems that exports in august were +6%, y-o-y, following the +5.9 % of july... Read on Nation.

Could it be a... trend ?

The exports engine for GDP growth is about to stop. Consumption and investment have already stopped.

What do we have now, left ? Government spendings. Yumi !

That'd be an increase from July, but about -3.7% to -4.0% in baht terms year over year. It'll knock the year to date growth down by about another point to perhaps below 4% in baht terms. Nice that they've added subprime as a reason.

[Mid]

The exports engine for GDP growth is about to stop. Consumption and investment have already stopped.

What do we have now, left ? Government spendings. Yumi !

asking that ? , brought me greif just a few post ( pages ? ) ago ...............................

[xbusman]

I will be interested in September numbers. Despite my rhetoric on this board, I will be shocked if exports begin to contract so quickly and dramatically, I thought it would take at least a year to start to show up and then only a trend line. If September is bad, we are in for a rougher year than I thought possible.

This subprime excuse is ludicrous. No one mentions China with every month setting new records in export growth. I will agree that China is not setting export records from demand which I think is slowing in the US and Europe, they are setting export records because that huge vacuum noise is the market share they are taking from Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and South Korea.

[Prakanong]

The exports engine for GDP growth is about to stop. Consumption and investment have already stopped.

What do we have now, left ? Government spendings. Yumi !

asking that ? , brought me greif just a few post ( pages ? ) ago ...............................

Mid - you know by now that if you can not buy three luxury penthouses in Grade A condo's out of the change from your dinner money you are not allowed an opinion on economics and trade.

We have posters here who will single handedly spend Thailand out of recession with the oversea's money they are bringing in and distributing to the Thai people

[Mid]

thanxs ,

I'm feeling better now ...................

[Carmine6]

I will be interested in September numbers. Despite my rhetoric on this board, I will be shocked if exports begin to contract so quickly and dramatically, I thought it would take at least a year to start to show up and then only a trend line. If September is bad, we are in for a rougher year than I thought possible.

This subprime excuse is ludicrous. No one mentions China with every month setting new records in export growth. I will agree that China is not setting export records from demand which I think is slowing in the US and Europe, they are setting export records because that huge vacuum noise is the market share they are taking from Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and South Korea.

Based on the implied exchange rate for the Bank of Thailand's figures, it looks like the rate is flattening out. If so, maybe exports will also stabilize. They ticked up from July to August but last year that happened as well.

I don't know how the BOT calculates the baht value of exports and the $ value of exports, but using their figures, here are the exchange rates. Maybe some invoices or contracts have stated exchange rates for customs purposes. Their figures in baht divided by their figures in dollars gives:

Baht/$

Jan-06 40.74

Feb-06 39.16

Mar-06 39.15

Apr-06 38.72

May-06 37.68

Jun-06 38.09

Jul-06 38.17

Aug-06 37.89

Sep-06 37.40

Oct-06 37.18

Nov-06 37.12

Dec-06 36.40

Jan-07 35.68

Feb-07 35.80

Mar-07 35.51

Apr-07 34.63

May-07 34.59

Jun-07 34.39

Jul-07 34.39

Note the 1 1/2 baht change over Dec and Jan, then it's flat for 3 months, another baht change, and flat for 4 months. Note that August rates on the bank websites were about there, and still are into September.

[Mid]

Export in August up only 6%

Wed, September 5, 2007 : Last updated 15:54 hours

The exports in August rose only 6 per cent year on year, a continue slowdown from July's growth of 5.9 per cent, due mainly to impact from subprime crisis and baht appreciation.

Chavalit Setsameteekul, director general of Finance Ministry's Custom Department, said on Wednesday that the 6-per-cent growth of export in August is still an unofficial figure. The exports growth in July was recorded at 5.9 per cent, the lowest in 29 months.

He said Commerce Ministry will announce official figure of exports growth in around the next 10 days.

The Nation

Wichit Chaitrong

[Mid]

Five hundreds workers of the defunct Thai Silp South East Asia Import Export Company on Tuesday hold a protest outside the Government House, saying they have not received any compensations for the layoff yet.

nationmultimedia.com

[Carmine6]

Wasn't Thai Slip the one that the government came in to help re-open?

[palm]

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/2/0/97350902.html

But hey, what does the Governor of the Bank of Thailand know. lol

Maybe he should read ThaiVisa for his economic advice instead, and 'get educated' by bitter expats living in Thailand with precarious finances.

[Prakanong]

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/2/0/97350902.html

But hey, what does the Governor of the Bank of Thailand know. lol

Maybe he should read ThaiVisa for his economic advice instead, and 'get educated' by bitter expats living in Thailand with precarious finances.

And there I was - thinking the Governor of the BoT consults Palm - we live and learn - live and learn indeed

[xbusman]

Palm, let me get this straight, you dont see a two month contraction in volume and price of exports in an economy based 60% on exports as a problem? Forget all the propaganda by those with an agenda, stick to the facts. I was personally feeling pretty good about 6% growth this year given the difficulties with the strong baht but two months of contraction come like a bucket of cold water.

These two months could be a glitch, simply some strange anomaly that BOT cant define, but if its not some unique event and instead a product of the strong baht and business environment I think the BOT should be very worried.

With private investment slowing, exports shrinking, do you see government spending as being able to keep the economy on track? If so, how long will they have to grow to make up for slowing consumption and exports? Can they sustain that level of spending for months, years, decades? These are very uncharted waters, very hard to see what the resolution might be, or if there even is one.

[Mid]

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/2/0/97350902.html

But hey, what does the Governor of the Bank of Thailand know. lol

Maybe he should read ThaiVisa for his economic advice instead, and 'get educated' by bitter expats living in Thailand with precarious finances.

She said the central bank was also reviewing rice export figures for July, as the Customs Department showed that exports had slowed but Commerce Ministry figures suggested they had grown.

doubt she knows any more than us ..............................

[cclub75]

I don't know how the BOT calculates the baht value of exports and the $ value of exports, but using their figures, here are the exchange rates. Maybe some invoices or contracts have stated exchange rates for customs purposes. Their figures in baht divided by their figures in dollars gives:

May-07 34.59

Jun-07 34.39

Jul-07 34.39

My calculations are the same until april.

After I found : 34,02 34,17 33,43

Edited September 5, 2007 by cclub75

[cclub75]

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/2/0/97350902.html

But hey, what does the Governor of the Bank of Thailand know. lol

Maybe he should read ThaiVisa for his economic advice instead, and 'get educated' by bitter expats living in Thailand with precarious finances.

If you were a bit more humble and smarter... you should now that this "news" is not dated from august 28. We had it around 20.

At that time, they tried everything they can to soften the figures : first they talked about the problems with stats, then Tarisa spoke about problems at "refineries" that had impacted oil exports to Singapore...

And the point is : the BOT has published on august 31 the detailed figures for exports in july.

Everything is there.

And furthermore, we had today the confirmation that exports were up only 6 % (y-o-y) in AUGUST. So it's exactly the same pattern than july.

Edited September 5, 2007 by cclub75

[Mid]

If you were a bit more humble and smarter...

and that he is a she ....................................

[xbusman]

Okay armchair economists, I have a question for the club.

Is GDP measured in baht or in dollars?

I have been railing against measuring exports in dollars, it adds a variable to the equation that obscures the trend in actual production and sales. For some reason, people are fixated on the benefit of the strong baht versus the health and direction of Thai manufacturing. Would this also be applied to GDP? If you add up all the amounts for GDP and for the sake of simple math say the economy grew 0% measured in goods and services in baht terms, but the baht appreciated 15% against the dollar, would you report that the economy grew 15% in dollar terms. Would it make any sense to do so?

Is the 4 to 5% prediction in baht or dollar terms? If its in baht, and GDP is calculated in baht, why would you report exports in dollar terms? Would you not also want to report government spending and private consumption in dollar terms? If you convert baht to dollars, and less baht is being spent by consumers as we know, reporting in dollar conversions would show consumption increasing in dollar terms. Is that not good for the economy? Relatively speaking, that means that Thais are paying more for everything in dollar terms. I wonder if the car dealers feel better about consumption increasing in dollar terms.

I do know there is a GDP figure in dollar terms but I thought it was some obscure benchmark to review trends world wide. Could this be what economists are using in their 4 to 5% predictions?