Medical expert warns of disaster if govt eases quarantine restrictions for tourists

[Pancho]

Good call. Let’s keep it safe.

 

 

 

 

[Surelynot]

24 minutes ago, chilli42 said:

In principal you are correct.

Saving this post.....

[PatOngo]

8 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

By keeping the borders closed, and insisting a 14 day quarantine on the forthcoming tourists (if any) will be disaster for the economy which is sinking fast at the moment.. 

 

Don't be too hard on them, they are not real bright!

[Pancho]

Bet this guy sells health insurance.

[micmichd]

10 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

This article is nonsense, show me where Australia add hundreds new cases per day.

Only in Victoria the have a few dozens per day in Western Australia we had not a 

local transmission for months Norther Territory had none for months only a few 

in NSW nothing in SA or Tassie who writes this nonsense?

Why am I not confused? 

Because it's hot like hell in Northern Territories even in winter? 

Because Northern Territories are not as populated as Southern Territories in Down Under? 

[Flying Saucage]

This is what I posted last Friday in another thread after the tourism minister Pipat announced the possible reduction of quarantine to 7 days:

 

"The government and the elite are not unified in their approach to handle the current crisis. Some of them lose a lot of money by keeping the borders closed and would like the country to reopen, others insist to keep it closed for political reasons and their own agenda, and for the later benefit of their generously bribe-paying Chinese friends.

 

It seems that Pipat and the TAT are at least trying to easy the situation. But their power to do so is very limited. It is Prayut and Prawit and likely some other more powerful people who block any attempt to reopen the borders. Soon their mouthpieces Yong and Thira of Chula University will announce again how dangerous and contagious we foreigners are, and this idea of Pipat will be buried. 

 

Edited Friday at 07:31 AM by Flying Saucage "  (end quote)

 

Voila!

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[bill014]

Lots of anger in the UK at the moment. We have a government organisation called the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which is linked to our National Health Service (NHS).

Their website gives the following amazing figures for Covid deaths.

 

Under 20 with no underlying symptoms=  4

Under 40 --------------------------------------= 39

Under 60 --------------------------------------=307 Total (includes the 43 above)

 

Under 20 with pre-existing symptoms = 16

Under 40 -----------------------------------  = 181

Under 60 ----------------------------------- = 1304 Total (includes the above)

 

Nowhere near the 250,000 deaths the so called "Medical Experts" claimed would occur.

[Lambou69]

10 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

This article is nonsense, show me where Australia add hundreds new cases per day.

Only in Victoria the have a few dozens per day in Western Australia we had not a 

local transmission for months Norther Territory had none for months only a few 

in NSW nothing in SA or Tassie who writes this nonsense?

Pinocchio

[spidermike007]

5 hours ago, rupert the bear said:

a few points here ,the economy is falling apart,peoples lives have been ruined.no support is given to unemployed people at all now whilst some members of society are zillionaires.they do nothing for their own.the tourist business is the bedrock of the economy whether u like it or not,people have a right to work not poverty as the govt gives them nothing although it has a lot.this must stop,the region has so few cases it can be opened up from japan to india thru viet hk taiwan philippines malaysia and singapore.people will need a neg test within 72 hrs and test again on entry.all clear u wait your test result in quarantine at a reasonable price,stop this insanity of racist rip offs for the empty hotels.i can stay at a 5 star hotel here for 900 B a night look at the net booking will show you. everyone knows you r game,its one of thailands no 1s.we see arguements about whether covids here,well the govt do not test the rates below 1% of the pop one of the lowest in the world,why?false positives are common,of the 700k test done we would get at least 20k false but none.why?the chinese in millions were here and the govt would not remove them no matter what anyone said.why?thats a reservoir of infection and when the govt sacked millions of workers they massed at rail and bus stations.at a time it was very prevalent.pneumonia deaths suddenly shot up then they went down.why?borders are porous and chinese and burmese run across all the time the camb and lao sides too so......thailand and its self importance and lies ...a never ending story ask boss.or the guy with all the expensive watches.this is a culture of dishonesty within govt ,its at every level so whys this any different?close your eyes and you see nothing,dont look at the poverty or suffering dont look at the mega rich dont look at a collapsing economy and businesses ,close those eyes its just not there.we will have to learn to live with it,its endemic now get on with it and spare us the supercillious lies,prepare to deal with cases,across the world econs have opened up in different ways from india to sweden.WHO is an edifice with no credibility,listen to what they didnt say to taiwan,they said no human/human transmission,flights from china no problem.nope theyre done cooked their own goose just jobs for the china boys.this whole covid deal is full of lies corruption and money,vaccines they may or may not work depending on where they come from,figs that have been manufactured to fit an agenda ask UK about that and here,its gone on everywhere,in USA so ins comps cash in.its never ending.the simple fact is its here endemic and we need to help the frail and weak and the rest of us get on with it.

You make some very valid points. The only ones like Dr. Thira Woratanarat that are advocating for denying foreigners the ability to enter Thailand, are well off, well paid, getting full benefits, or collecting sizable pensions. Little sympathy for the plight of the masses. Not sure of the wisdom of a 7 day quarantine. It does seem that a 10 day quarantine would be plenty safe, combined with the covid tests, prior to departure.

 

Thailand is hurting. The tourism industry is hurting. Millions are hurting. Time for the extreme timidity of the army to end, and the time is now.

[BernieOnTour]

11 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

This article is nonsense, show me where Australia add hundreds new cases per day.

Only in Victoria the have a few dozens per day in Western Australia we had not a 

local transmission for months Norther Territory had none for months only a few 

in NSW nothing in SA or Tassie who writes this nonsense?

Yep, this doctor didn’t keep up with the recent developments and is living in the past! Number of “cases” -these are rtPCR tests, not infections ! , therefore including false positives- :

 

Regarding false positives: the increase in “cases” in August was not at least a result of the tremendously increased number of tests.

Nowadays, still with a relatively high number of those funny PCR tests, having only a specifity of 98.6% (meaning: 1.6% could be false positives...) the number of “cases” has considerably decreased.

Even in August, the positive PCR tests where in the range of mere 1%, now that relation is down to less than 1 per thousand.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by BernieOnTour

[suzannegoh]

9 hours ago, farang51 said:

Article in New York Times that says the number of deaths was normal from January to April:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

That article does not say that the number of deaths was normal, it says that "At least 263,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report" in the 32 countries that they tracked.

[Deli]

He and his buddy captain silver scalp are telling the same fairytale over and over agsin. Where is the ignore button ?

[BernieOnTour]

14 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

That article does not say that the number of deaths was normal, it says that "At least 263,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic than the official Covid-19 death counts report" in the 32 countries that they tracked.

Ok, but that number in itself doesn’t tell us anything, if we do not put it into relation to the overall picture:

- how did they get this figure? 250-300,000, I would understand, but exactly 263,000 ? Really ?

- how many people died in total in that time period

- what is the total population in those 32 countries, what’s the resulting percentage of those 263k ?

 

... according to Worldometer: globally until today 43,713,000 deaths in total 

(BTW: Covid deaths -with and from Covid- 1,002,402 )

Edited September 28, 2020 by BernieOnTour

[Pedrogaz]

All of the analysis, all of the BS comes from having no data. What is needed is a multivariate analysis for the next 50,000 cases of positive tests including urban vs rural, indoor vs outdoor exposure, institutionalised vs not, age, concomitant diseases, severity of disease, presenting symptoms, major symptoms during disease, ethnicity, socioeconomic level, educational level etc.....stick all this data into a large computer and see what correlates. Correlation is not causation but once the correlation is there it can be investigated to see if it is real or an artefact. 

Only then can we have a sensible discussion as where we are now is that too many people Aree using snippets of information (which is meaningless) to support their meaningless opinions. 

[Bedfont]

Why not allow all tourists to come to Thailand on holiday?  Make them sign a "hold harmless" agreement to acknowledge they may be eliminated if caught trying to bring covid into the country...

 

That's too funny for words. Just one case of covid will infect many. Just not worth it.

Edited September 28, 2020 by Bedfont
change layout

[Captor]

More disaster than 25-30 000 deaths in the streets every year?

[RocketDog]

1 hour ago, micmichd said:

I guess it's only organic issues based on obesity, including pain in your knee caused by arthrosis. Exercising and sun helps a lot. 

Look at them old farts dancing in homes for the elderly in Thailand. Don't they look happy? 

No, you are incorrect. The study that alarmed me included a majority of young people who now have lifelong organ problems. 

 

It's one thing to get sick for a few weeks and another to have permanent organ damage to several vital organs. 

This issue is simply flying under the radar right. People are just tired of Covid alarms and overlooking it. 

 

As with the USA presidential election most people have taken a stance on Covid and don't want to hear any more about it. 

 

As I said in another reply just do a search for Covid long term organ damage and scan a few of the dozens of articles and judge for yourself. 

[Buffy Frobisher]

10 hours ago, genericptr said:

I assume they at least test hospitalizations with COVID like symptoms but I don't know how you would confirm that. My girlfriends place of work (government sector) tested all their employees and found zero positives.

 

I think the false positive rates for the test are 1%. That means if you tested the entire population of 68 million you would AT LEAST get back 680,000 positive tests.

 

It's my current theory is that COVID already blew threw Thailand early on when they were accepting tourists from China still. Many older people died but the Thai medical system didn't have the means/ability to analyze the deaths and they simply went uncounted.  We could confirm my theory if the government has excess death statistics but I don't know how to find those.

I absolutely agree with your theory. I, and nearly everyone I know in Bangkok, got as sick as dogs in late December before Covid-19 was officially known, and those that went to hospital were diagnosed with either whooping cough or pneumonia and treated accordingly. Friends who visited from Switzerland and copped it went back home and returned positive antibody tests, which of course we all know aren't perfect, but I'm still suffering the long-hauler symptoms of outrageous fatigue and ongoing cough. Unfortunately there's no way of knowing for sure, but anecdotally it sure is a possible theory. I'm told by nurses I know that there are a lot of Covid patients presently in some of Bangkok's big private hospitals, and more arrive every day. I reckon it's still out there...unofficially, in order to preserve the tourist industry that isn't.

[CLW]

What a nonsense. Covid has proved to be less lethal than estimated.

Germany had 12.156 new cases in the last 7 days but only 50 deaths.

And from those deaths the majority is over 80 years old.

So where's the danger for a healthy individual?

[ourmanflint]

6 hours ago, rupert the bear said:

a few points here ,the economy is falling apart,peoples lives have been ruined.no support is given to unemployed people at all now whilst some members of society are zillionaires.they do nothing for their own.the tourist business is the bedrock of the economy whether u like it or not,people have a right to work not poverty as the govt gives them nothing although it has a lot.this must stop,the region has so few cases it can be opened up from japan to india thru viet hk taiwan philippines malaysia and singapore.people will need a neg test within 72 hrs and test again on entry.all clear u wait your test result in quarantine at a reasonable price,stop this insanity of racist rip offs for the empty hotels.i can stay at a 5 star hotel here for 900 B a night look at the net booking will show you. everyone knows you r game,its one of thailands no 1s.we see arguements about whether covids here,well the govt do not test the rates below 1% of the pop one of the lowest in the world,why?false positives are common,of the 700k test done we would get at least 20k false but none.why?the chinese in millions were here and the govt would not remove them no matter what anyone said.why?thats a reservoir of infection and when the govt sacked millions of workers they massed at rail and bus stations.at a time it was very prevalent.pneumonia deaths suddenly shot up then they went down.why?borders are porous and chinese and burmese run across all the time the camb and lao sides too so......thailand and its self importance and lies ...a never ending story ask boss.or the guy with all the expensive watches.this is a culture of dishonesty within govt ,its at every level so whys this any different?close your eyes and you see nothing,dont look at the poverty or suffering dont look at the mega rich dont look at a collapsing economy and businesses ,close those eyes its just not there.we will have to learn to live with it,its endemic now get on with it and spare us the supercillious lies,prepare to deal with cases,across the world econs have opened up in different ways from india to sweden.WHO is an edifice with no credibility,listen to what they didnt say to taiwan,they said no human/human transmission,flights from china no problem.nope theyre done cooked their own goose just jobs for the china boys.this whole covid deal is full of lies corruption and money,vaccines they may or may not work depending on where they come from,figs that have been manufactured to fit an agenda ask UK about that and here,its gone on everywhere,in USA so ins comps cash in.its never ending.the simple fact is its here endemic and we need to help the frail and weak and the rest of us get on with it.

Is there anybody that can read this, it might be important..

[Surelynot]

11 minutes ago, CLW said:

What a nonsense. Covid has proved to be less lethal than estimated.

Germany had 12.156 new cases in the last 7 days but only 50 deaths.

And from those deaths the majority is over 80 years old.

So where's the danger for a healthy individual?

Quite right...to hell with the old people....what does it matter if they die?

[ourmanflint]

The only thing that really matter is this

 

How long can the poor people of Thailand stand being told by the rich people of Thailand that letting in tourists will be calamitous?

[androokery]

9 hours ago, uncle_tom said:

A couple of hours ago, I received a text message from a low born, but very intelligent and successful lady I've known for nearly twenty years now from Issan.

 

Her message was simple: The people are getting desperate now - do the farangs want to come back?

 

I replied yes - 100%..

I get the same type of message from several people in Thailand. 

[Flying Saucage]

23 minutes ago, Buffy Frobisher said:

I absolutely agree with your theory. I, and nearly everyone I know in Bangkok, got as sick as dogs in late December before Covid-19 was officially known, and those that went to hospital were diagnosed with either whooping cough or pneumonia and treated accordingly. Friends who visited from Switzerland and copped it went back home and returned positive antibody tests, which of course we all know aren't perfect, but I'm still suffering the long-hauler symptoms of outrageous fatigue and ongoing cough. Unfortunately there's no way of knowing for sure, but anecdotally it sure is a possible theory. I'm told by nurses I know that there are a lot of Covid patients presently in some of Bangkok's big private hospitals, and more arrive every day. I reckon it's still out there...unofficially, in order to preserve the tourist industry that isn't.

A relative of me was on holidays in Phuket in December. He came back to Europe with a serious "flu", and (probably) infected his sister. Her flu became quite serious, she even cought blood, and went to a doctor in January. This, however, was still the time before Covid was an issue in Europe. So no tests were done at that time. Both recovered fully.

 

The sister also knows about a family which made holidays in Thailand in January. All four of them caught a very serious "flu" in Thailand. Later back in Europe, in the blood of three of them Covid antibodies were found.

 

Regarding Covid today in Thailand, I am sure there are many cases, and the virus is in the country. However, due to climatic reasons (windows are always open due to the heat where no AC is, or where there is AC, the AC dries the air and reduces the concentration of contaminated exhaled aerosoles) the inhaled virus concentration is low in average, leading to a high percentage of mild or asymptomatic cases.

 

Two things are sure: You never can trust any official Thai numbers, and you can not find cases if you hardly test.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[tomauasia]

He looks mongaloid. Also Chinese and racist.. I also doubt he has a brain. Ignore this muppet

[simtemple]

12 hours ago, GeneH said:

My question is this, are they even testing people in Thailand? I've heard stories of people crossing the Myanmar border with ease and no testing/quarantine. If this is true I would say they should start testing to find out what's really happening inside the country. While I have a bias opinion due to the fact I'm currently locked out of the country from seeing my wife I can only hope there is some solid solution soon because the economic situation will only become worse the longer the country is locked down.

Testing isn't always reliable. A traveler returning from India was tested twice in quarantine by NZ boarder Control. After release from quarantine he infected three members of his family 

[BigStar]

5 hours ago, lensta said:

Thailand must have more medical experts than any other country because a new one seems to pop up every day looking for his 15 minutes of fame.

Depends on the thread. In one such as this, we have a new one popping up every 15 min. to repeat TVF Virology and the TVF Economic Recovery Plan as they have been from the very beginning: no masks (xenophobic violation of Farang Sovereignty), no checking, no tests, no quarantine, exchange rate fixed at 100 baht/GBPeso, free perpetual visas for everyone, work permitted anytime, and free beer to show love and appreciation. 

[VBF]

3 hours ago, ian007 said:

Expert, expert expert.... 

This is what a 'real' expert says: 

Prof Carl Heneghan, the head of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University, says the current situation is "utter chaos" with a constant stream of new restrictions and schools sending whole year groups home when just one person tests positive. All this at a time when the level of infection is still very low.
This, Prof Heneghan says, is the consequence of trying to suppress the virus. Instead, he argues we should accept it is here to stay and try to minimise the risks, while balancing that against the consequences of the actions we take.
In particular, he's concerned the Covid test is actually so sensitive it's picking up what is effectively dead virus as it spots traces of it months after the person has stopped being infectious.
"We need to slow down our thinking. But every time the government sees a rise in cases it seems to panic," he said.

And on the back of that, as I've said here before, most so-called "cases" are actually people testing positive for a virus who may or may not go on to develop symptoms which may or may not become serious. They are of course, "carriers"

 

But....at the moment they were tested, they merely "had" the virus and if they were and remained asymptomatic, wouldn't otherwise have known they had it.

To me, "cases" are sick people, NOT just those who happen to be positive.

 

If you use THAT definition, there aren't many cases anywhere in the world despite the enormous numbers of "carriers". This further indicates that millions of us could be "carriers" but with no actual problems.

 

So as I've said on other forums, surely there's justification in letting this thing loose, but warning those who are vulnerable and giving them a choice to isolate if they so wish?

Would that count as a sort of "herd immunity"?  What do you think @Sheryl  ?

Edited September 28, 2020 by VBF

[Kaopad999]

34 minutes ago, Captor said:

More disaster than 25-30 000 deaths in the streets every year?

That's a separate issue entirely, has nothing to do with Thailand's medicals experts. 

[simtemple]

29 minutes ago, CLW said:

What a nonsense. Covid has proved to be less lethal than estimated.

Germany had 12.156 new cases in the last 7 days but only 50 deaths.

And from those deaths the majority is over 80 years old.

So where's the danger for a healthy individual?

You think? This guy thought like you, until he nearly died of Covid-19 

https://youtu.be/vpJtVzGdE1g