Thai Baht

[soalbundy]

Despite everything going wrong for Thailand, economically and politically the Thai Baht is as strong as an ox against all major currencies, one can only assume this is temporary due to lockdowns in the west but even so the strength seems extraordinary to me.

[Lacessit]

It seems to be fairly static against the Australian dollar. Most other currencies are being printed in a race to the bottom.

[userabcd]

The Thai Baht is back in the normal range before the exceptional event of 1997 caused it to depreciate dramatically.

 

It took many years to normalise back to the range where it stands at the moment. 

[soalbundy]

Just now, userabcd said:

The Thai Baht is back in the normal range before the exceptional event of 1997 caused it to depreciate dramatically.

 

It took many years to normalise back to the range where it stands at the moment. 

but it has happened within a week or so, it hasn't been gradual

[2530Ubon]

I'm fed up of the BOT constantly saying 'We have levers we can pull", or, "We have many ways we can intervene".

 

Stop talking about what you could do, and do something constructive. A strong Baht isn't good for anyone. Why not pay down some of the government debt recently accrued with the enormous foreign currency reserves at it's disposal.

 

Constantly building roads to no-where all across Thailand isn't getting us anywhere.

[soalbundy]

18 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

It seems to be fairly static against the Australian dollar. Most other currencies are being printed in a race to the bottom.

The operative words were 'major currencies' ????

[mfd101]

25 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

The operative words were 'major currencies' ????

The Oz dollar is the 5th-most-traded currency in the world. The traders make a mint off its ups & downs as it is a (relatively) clean float.

[Kwasaki]

The Baht trading is where it is and my guess is,  it stay that way for the next decade.

[soalbundy]

2 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

The Baht trading is where it is and my guess is,  it stay that way for the next decade.

Doesn't look like it's 'staying' anywhere it's climbing by the hour against Dollar, Pound and Euro, all places where lockdowns are imminent or in place.

[sammieuk1]

Unexplained mysterious phenomena of the bulletproof baht hopefully it's on Joe Biden's to do list to figure it out  ????

[thedemon]

1 hour ago, userabcd said:

The Thai Baht is back in the normal range before the exceptional event of 1997 caused it to depreciate dramatically.

 

It took many years to normalise back to the range where it stands at the moment. 

 

From 1984 to 1997 the Baht was pegged at 25 to 1USD so it still has a way to go.

 

Prior to 1984 it was pegged at 20 to 1USD.

[BangkokReady]

If you're in Thailand, earning Thai Baht, is there a way to benefit from this?  Buy gold?  Exchange money before it goes back down again?

[Chivas]

Three letters as to the reason why.....FCR or more to the point the size of it

[Misab]

Thai Bahts has risen approx. 3 to 4% in the last month against most currencies, especially against countries with which Thailand trades. But who is behind the rise? I do not think that Thailand itself is behind it, because they do not want to hurt their own exports, which are being hit now. In my view, it is more likely that large hedge funds are currently manipulating the Thai currency. We can only hope that Thailand has "tools" to get Thai Baht back to normal, for the benefit of most people.

When I and others transfer money to Thailand every month and suddenly 4% is missing, then there is only one place to save, and that is on consumption, and that affects the traders in the local areas. This however is only a small part but when large companies want to sell their product and the price rise 4% in a month, other countries buy their stuff somewhere else and that hurts Thailand.

[Kwasaki]

On 11/11/2020 at 6:04 PM, soalbundy said:

Doesn't look like it's 'staying' anywhere it's climbing by the hour against Dollar, Pound and Euro, all places where lockdowns are imminent or in place.

Why worry I don't, whatever will be will be I cannot do anything about it .

[Barnabe]

We all want the THB to get weaker and you can rationalise as much as you want, but the market doesn’t care about your feelings.

 

Unfortunately the THB strength is here to stay, unless the BoT jumps on the QE train or the economy starts to tank due to a lack of tourists. 
 

IMO the latter is overblown by some posters here, I highly doubt tourism is more than 20% of the GDP, and yes this is including the multiplicative effects on different businesses such as food, transport etc.

 

And if 20% sounds like a lot, then compare it to the crash in economic activity in other countries and you’ll see that’s not much.

 

Bottom line, the THB is strong because all other currencies / country economies  have gone to **** in comparison.

[Barnabe]

On 11/11/2020 at 6:19 PM, sammieuk1 said:

Unexplained mysterious phenomena of the bulletproof baht hopefully it's on Joe Biden's to do list to figure it out  ????

Do you realise that if Biden or Trump have their way, the Thai baht will rise even more against all major currencies?

 

Thailand, like China, is on the currency manipulation list for keeping their currency DOWN, not up. Be careful what you wish for.

[2530Ubon]

11 hours ago, Barnabe said:

Unfortunately the THB strength is here to stay, unless the BoT jumps on the QE train or the economy starts to tank due to a lack of tourists. 
 

IMO the latter is overblown by some posters here, I highly doubt tourism is more than 20% of the GDP, and yes this is including the multiplicative effects on different businesses such as food, transport etc.

 

And if 20% sounds like a lot, then compare it to the crash in economic activity in other countries and you’ll see that’s not much.

 

Bottom line, the THB is strong because all other currencies / country economies  have gone to **** in comparison.

See for yourself, it is around 20%...

 

Estimates of tourism revenue directly contributing to the GDP of 12 trillion baht range from one trillion baht (2013) 2.53 trillion baht (2016), the equivalent of 9% to 17.7% of GDP.[1][2] When including indirect travel and tourism receipts, the 2014 total is estimated to be the equivalent of 19.3% (2.3 trillion baht) of Thailand's GDP.[3]:1 The actual contribution of tourism to GDP is lower than these percentages because GDP is measured in value added not revenue. The valued added of the Thailand's tourism industry is not known (value added is revenue less purchases of inputs). According to the secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council in 2019, the government projects that the tourism sector will account for 30% of GDP by 2030, up from 20% in 2019.

[Barnabe]

1 hour ago, 2530Ubon said:

See for yourself, it is around 20%...

 

Estimates of tourism revenue directly contributing to the GDP of 12 trillion baht range from one trillion baht (2013) 2.53 trillion baht (2016), the equivalent of 9% to 17.7% of GDP.[1][2] When including indirect travel and tourism receipts, the 2014 total is estimated to be the equivalent of 19.3% (2.3 trillion baht) of Thailand's GDP.[3]:1 The actual contribution of tourism to GDP is lower than these percentages because GDP is measured in value added not revenue. The valued added of the Thailand's tourism industry is not known (value added is revenue less purchases of inputs). According to the secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council in 2019, the government projects that the tourism sector will account for 30% of GDP by 2030, up from 20% in 2019.

That was my point, 20% already including indirect benefits.

 

On another note, I think this tourism crash might be good for Thailand. 20% is already too much, but being dependent on tourism for 30% of the economy is a huge mistake... all eggs in the same basket etc.