Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country

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• Sweden's chief epidemiologist has admitted that the country is now experiencing a second wave of coronavirus despite predicting that the country's no-lockdown policy would prevent another surge.
• Tegnell had suggested that case numbers would be "quite low" in the autumn compared to other European countries which imposed lockdowns.
• However, the latest figures show Sweden is experiencing higher levels of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths than its neighbours, relative to population size.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-herd-immunity-second-wave-coronavirus-cases-hospitalisations-surge-2020-11

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

[onebir]

33 minutes ago, placeholder said:

However, the latest figures show Sweden is experiencing higher levels of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths than its neighbours, relative to population size.

IIRC the figures have shown this more or less from the beginning... (but those inclined to support the Swedish policy have tended to explain this away in terms of factors special to Sweden, while never considering that there might be other factors special to Sweden behind that policy's apparent success).

 

But TBH many other countries would 'die for' even Sweden' recent daily death rate (<25, for a country of ~10m population).

[placeholder]

Just now, onebir said:

IIRC the figures have shown this more or less from the beginning... (but those inclined to support the Swedish policy have tended to explain this away in terms of factors special to Sweden, while never considering that there might be other factors special to Sweden behind that policy's apparent success).

 

But TBH many other countries would 'die for' even Sweden' recent daily death rate (<25, for a country of ~10m population).

It's early days yet. And we know the lag time is about 3 weeks. So look where Sweden was 3 weeks ago in number of cases and look where it is now and multiply accordingly. We should be expecting at least 60 deaths a day in 3 weeks. And if the number of cases keeps rising down the road it will be even more.

And you ignore the fact that it's doing worse than its neighboring states.

[LomSak27]

Troubled times for the HERD.

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by LomSak27

[Bluetongue]

16 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's early days yet. And we know the lag time is about 3 weeks. So look where Sweden was 3 weeks ago in number of cases and look where it is now and multiply accordingly. We should be expecting at least 60 deaths a day in 3 weeks. And if the number of cases keeps rising down the road it will be even more.

And you ignore the fact that it's doing worse than its neighboring states.

We'll have to come back in 3 weeks then? The demographics and other things are different in the neighbouring states, compare it to Belgium

 

[Surelynot]

Shame this didn't hit the news last week when Farage and his halfwit sidekick Tice were banging on about how to put the country to rights by copying the oh so wonderful Swedish model....pair of rightwing, racist idiots.

[Airalee]

16 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's early days yet. And we know the lag time is about 3 weeks. So look where Sweden was 3 weeks ago in number of cases and look where it is now and multiply accordingly. We should be expecting at least 60 deaths a day in 3 weeks. And if the number of cases keeps rising down the road it will be even more.

And you ignore the fact that it's doing worse than its neighboring states.

For months, we were reading about how the second wave would be worse than the first.  Although the cases have risen substantially, the death rate certainly doesn’t seem to follow regardless of “lag time” prognostications.  In fact, even when cases were trending upwards earlier on,  daily deaths were trending downwards and no “lag time” is apparent according to the charts.

 

Looks like we are out of the woods.

[Airalee]

@Salerno  why so sad?  Were you hoping for more deaths?

Edited November 15, 2020 by Airalee

[cmarshall]

Tegnell and Giesecke should be in prison.

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, Airalee said:

For months, we were reading about how the second wave would be worse than the first.  Although the cases have risen substantially, the death rate certainly doesn’t seem to follow regardless of “lag time” prognostications.  In fact, even when cases were trending upwards earlier on,  daily deaths were trending downwards and no “lag time” is apparent according to the charts.

 

Looks like we are out of the woods.

Ya sure about that?

As of November 13, 2020, there have been 325,664 deaths in Europe overall due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) since the first recorded European death in France on February 15. November 4 was the virus' deadliest day so far in Europe with 5,470 deaths. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102288/coronavirus-deaths-development-europe/

[Airalee]

34 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Ya sure about that?

As of November 13, 2020, there have been 325,664 deaths in Europe overall due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) since the first recorded European death in France on February 15. November 4 was the virus' deadliest day so far in Europe with 5,470 deaths. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102288/coronavirus-deaths-development-europe/

But we’re talking about Sweden.  Let’s not change the subject.  Looks like they did it right.  

 

Go Sweden!

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Airalee said:

But we’re talking about Sweden.  Let’s not change the subject.  Looks like they did it right.  

 

Go Sweden!

 

 

 

 

Do you think you're fooling me by only copying one of the graphs I posted. Are you denying that there is a lag time between cases being reported and deaths? Because deaths are rising again, aren't they?

[placeholder]

13 minutes ago, Airalee said:

But we’re talking about Sweden.  Let’s not change the subject.  Looks like they did it right.  

 

Go Sweden!

 

 

 

 

How do you explain this?

COVID-19 hospitalizations soar in lockdown-free Sweden amid second wave

Coronavirus hospitalizations are surging in lockdown-eschewing Sweden as the country grapples with a second wave of the virus, data shows.

There are currently 1,004 patients being treated for the virus in the Nordic nation’s hospitals — up 60 percent from the previous week’s 627, the Guardian reported.

“We consider the situation extremely serious,” Björn Eriksson, the director of healthcare for the Stockholm region, told state media.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/12/covid-19-hospitalizations-surging-in-sweden-amid-second-wave/

 

Ya think there's no correlation between hospitalizations and deaths?

[from the home of CC]

but on the plus side they did manage to euthanize quite a few old folk rather than treat them..

[onebir]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Ya think there's no correlation between hospitalizations and deaths?

In most places that correlation seems to be holding up better than the cases/deaths one (which is getting distorted by increasing test volume).

 

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Are you denying that there is a lag time between cases being reported and deaths? Because deaths are rising again, aren't they?

IDK if he/she was, but looking closely at the Swedish cases & deaths charts, I wonder if the normal "cases lead deaths by ~3 weeks" relationship might be reversed there. (Sounds crazy, but if you're not doing much testing, perhaps because you think you're reaching herd immunity, you might only start to ramp up testing in response to a spike in deaths....)

 

(You seem to have misunderstood my earlier posts; I don't consider Sweden a 'good example', more be an anomaly.)

[Airalee]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

How do you explain this?

COVID-19 hospitalizations soar in lockdown-free Sweden amid second wave

Coronavirus hospitalizations are surging in lockdown-eschewing Sweden as the country grapples with a second wave of the virus, data shows.

There are currently 1,004 patients being treated for the virus in the Nordic nation’s hospitals — up 60 percent from the previous week’s 627, the Guardian reported.

“We consider the situation extremely serious,” Björn Eriksson, the director of healthcare for the Stockholm region, told state media.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/12/covid-19-hospitalizations-surging-in-sweden-amid-second-wave/

 

Ya think there's no correlation between hospitalizations and deaths?

I’m just going off the charts you provided in your original posts.    
 

Cases rise significantly...deaths don’t.  
 

The hypothesis of some sort of “lag time” isn’t borne out in the past either based on the charts you provided.  
 

I’m really not worried about the hospitalization numbers going from .00006 of the population to .0001.
 

That means 99.99% of the population isn’t hospitalized.  What’s not to like about that?

 

With soooooo many new cases, yet deaths not following (nor hospitalizations) I’m sure that the majority of the new cases just have the sniffles or something like that.

 

Winning!

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Airalee said:

I’m just going off the charts you provided in your original posts.    
 

Cases rise significantly...deaths don’t.  
 

The hypothesis of some sort of “lag time” isn’t borne out in the past either based on the charts you provided.  
 

I’m really not worried about the hospitalization numbers going from .00006 of the population to .0001.
 

That means 99.99% of the population isn’t hospitalized.  What’s not to like about that?

 

With soooooo many new cases, yet deaths not following (nor hospitalizations) I’m sure that the majority of the new cases just have the sniffles or something like that.

 

Winning!

 

 

 

 

The majority of hospitalization cases have the sniffles? 

"The prime minister, Stefan Löfven, however, said on Wednesday that all indicators were “going in the wrong direction. The infection is spreading fast, and in the past week the number of people being treated in intensive care has more than doubled.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/covid-infections-in-sweden-surge-dashing-hopes-of-herd-immunity

Do you really want to spread obviously false information like that?

 

And as for your nonsense about the percentage of the population afflicted. That's at any one time. Do you understand that? So it's the cumulative total over time. And the worst is yet to come.

 

And you don't notice any increase in deaths starting in late October? 

[Airalee]

13 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And the worst is yet to come.

Maybe from what you see in your crystal ball.  Yeah yeah yeah.   We have all heard that it COVID-19 could morph into something more dangerous and deadly.  
 

Perhaps it is becoming less deadly?

 

Why do you cheer for the worst case scenario?  Why so negative?  This is good news.  A lower percentage of people are dying.  We should be celebrating!

 

Maybe it’s so much worse in Europe because of their filthy cigarette habit?  Perhaps they should be more like Sweden and use Snus.

 

[placeholder]

13 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Maybe from what you see in your crystal ball.  Yeah yeah yeah.   We have all heard that it COVID-19 could morph into something more dangerous and deadly.  
 

Perhaps it is becoming less deadly?

 

Why do you cheer for the worst case scenario?  Why so negative?  This is good news.  A lower percentage of people are dying.  We should be celebrating!

 

Maybe it’s so much worse in Europe because of their filthy cigarette habit?  Perhaps they should be more like Sweden and use Snus.

 

My approach would be hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Yours is hope for the best and prepare accordingly.

And I notice that denmark and norway have higher consumption rates of cigarettes but are currently faring a lot better than Sweden. Hmmm...

[Psimbo]

Back in Apr the Swedes where I live were not complying with the pool closure, wearing masks, etc as 'That's not what we do in Sweden'. I pointed out  that they were not IN Sweden.

 

I wonder how many of them have now popped their clogs (or the Swedish equivalent) - it will make for a quiet High Season.????

[Airalee]

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Yours is hope for the best and prepare accordingly.

I mask up and wash my hands obsequiously.  Why do you assume otherwise?  Because I see the positive side of the data you have posted and come to the logical conclusion that maybe....just maybe the worst is behind us?  
 

Why make false assumptions about me just because I have a positive attitude?

[oldhippy]

56 minutes ago, Airalee said:

I mask up and wash my hands obsequiously.  Why do you assume otherwise?  Because I see the positive side of the data you have posted and come to the logical conclusion that maybe....just maybe the worst is behind us?  
 

Why make false assumptions about me just because I have a positive attitude?

On what do you base your assumption that herd immunity will be reached, or even that it is possible (contrarily to the flu)? Because the Swedish say so?

[Airalee]

4 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

On what do you base your assumption that herd immunity will be reached, or even that it is possible (contrarily to the flu)? Because the Swedish say so?

Where did I ever say anything about herd immunity.  Please don’t put words in my mouth.
 

 I just see (and noted as such) that as the second wave of cases are shown (in the original post), the death rate is not rising in a commensurate fashion.  I see no evidence of any purported “lag time”.  To me, that is a good thing.  If you choose to look at it differently and live your life in fear and negativity, well...you are free to do so.

[oldhippy]

13 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Where did I ever say anything about herd immunity.  Please don’t put words in my mouth.
 

 I just see (and noted as such) that as the second wave of cases are shown (in the original post), the death rate is not rising in a commensurate fashion.  I see no evidence of any purported “lag time”.  To me, that is a good thing.  If you choose to look at it differently and live your life in fear and negativity, well...you are free to do so.

The Swedish policy that you admire so much is based on herd immunity.

[Airalee]

1 minute ago, oldhippy said:

The Swedish policy that you admire so much is based on herd immunity.

I didn’t make any statement regarding policy either.  It’s the same in Europe...lots more cases, not as many people dying compared to the increase in cases.  
 

That’s a good thing.  

 

Were you hoping for something worse than the statistics show?

 

[oldhippy]

16 minutes ago, Airalee said:

I didn’t make any statement regarding policy either.  It’s the same in Europe...lots more cases, not as many people dying compared to the increase in cases.  
 

That’s a good thing.  

 

Were you hoping for something worse than the statistics show?

 

The statistics that you quote show:

 

1/ more cases - of course, because more testing

2/ almost as many deaths but not in proportion to number of cases - thanks to a better understanding and treatment of corona

 

I was hoping for something better then those figures.

By the way: Belgium went again in semi lockdown. Within 2 weeks cases and hospitalisations were halved, deaths (that of course lag behind) stabilised. Coincidence or the only way to go ("living in fear" as you call it) ?

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by oldhippy
.

[Meat Pie 47]

9 minutes ago, Airalee said:

It seems as if Sweden shows similar statistics to Europe.  

 

I’m not advocating for or against either countries way of handling things.  As I said..,perhaps the worst is behind us and that COVID really isn’t as bad as some people seem to think...or hope it will be. 
 

There do seem to be quite a few fear mongers on Thaivisa however.  Maybe they are heavily invested in pharmaceutical stocks and gain to benefit from it financially?  I don’t know.  But, if COVID peters out (due to whatever reason) that’s a good thing, right?  If it’s supposed to be as bad as so many seem to think it is then COVID is gonna have to up its game.

Western Australia

Total cases 783

Recovered 757

Deaths 9

 

Australia

Total cases 27,725 +14

Recovered 25,317

Deaths 907

 

 Sweden

Coronavirus Cases:

177,355

Deaths:

6,164

 

Australia has twice the population of Sweden

[Meat Pie 47]

2 hours ago, Airalee said:

Maybe from what you see in your crystal ball.  Yeah yeah yeah.   We have all heard that it COVID-19 could morph into something more dangerous and deadly.  
 

Perhaps it is becoming less deadly?

 

Why do you cheer for the worst case scenario?  Why so negative?  This is good news.  A lower percentage of people are dying.  We should be celebrating!

 

Maybe it’s so much worse in Europe because of their filthy cigarette habit?  Perhaps they should be more like Sweden and use Snus.

 

What lot of BS

What country has the highest rate of smokers?

China has the most smokers (300.7 million), while India has the most smokeless tobacco users (205.9 million). Russia faces a looming crisis. Russia has the highest smoking rate among men (60.2 percent).

[alyx]

Numbers indicate what one wants them to and statistics...statistics are  anything but an exact science.

We will eventually know (I hope ) what really happened but, right now, everyone is asserting a truth based on...volatile datas.

These datas include one number I am pretty interested in: deaths due to this virus opposed to the number of deaths with the virus. I am specifically talking about European countries where populations are comparable in numbers, habits etc...

Now, back to the topic, although I admit that every decision made by anyone/any government is at the same time time the right one and the wrong one ( regardless of the effects on the millions of lives affected by these decisions from the economic point of view or even on the health of some patients in need of care or surgery whose cases have been delayed to an unknown date because this virus prevails ) I am quite fond of the stand that Sweden has taken.

[impulse]

48 minutes ago, Airalee said:

There do seem to be quite a few fear mongers on Thaivisa however.  Maybe they are heavily invested in pharmaceutical stocks and gain to benefit from it financially?

 

It's easy to advocate shutting down the economy if you're retired and no longer have to worry about making a living. 

 

There's no downside for them, unlike those whose careers are derailed, possibly irreparably.  Like millions of Thai people.