No deal on Brexit trade 'very very likely', British PM Johnson says

[Loiner]

1 hour ago, Hi from France said:

 

You know pragmatism, cold blood and the ability to evaluate a situation used to be British qualities.

 

They still are, and that's why we decided to get out of the EU. 

[Loiner]

1 hour ago, Hi from France said:

from the "Torygraph"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/12/12/boris-johnson-branded-english-nationalist-former-tory-chairman/

 

 

 

link to a description of the “cod wars” with Iceland

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but what are you trying to say?

[Loiner]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Tell that to manufacturers who depend on supply chains and just in time delivery.

They've been told quite at lot already. Things are changing, so get used to it.

[bkkcanuck8]

2 hours ago, Loiner said:

The rest of the world knows it and agrees with it. That’s why they are queuing up to make new and better deals with us. 

Whether you take my word for it makes no odds with me. You sound like your Mr. Macron: “You keep saying I can’t take your fish anymore, but please understand I cannot take your sovereign PM word for it.” 

Is this something the EU brainwashes all of you with?

What queue? 

The only real deals signed so far are really standstill agreements or worse agreements than the EU had as part of it.  The one signed with Japan was basically for scraps left over that EU quotas not used by the EU.... 

 

Overall the trade agreements are worse.

 

The US has told you to step back into their queue... they will get to you eventually, but not if the withdrawal agreement is torn up.   (The two largest trading blocks for the UK are the EU and US)...

 

The UK just is not that important of a market for most to care and the UK is desperate for Trade Agreements which is a perfect negotiating position for... other countries. 

 

Welcome to the world real world of smaller economy markets...

[Scott]

Off-topic abusive post and reply removed.  Keep it civil.  

 

[simple1]

2 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The UK just is not that important of a market for most to care

 

Personally I am not a supporter of Brexit, but we have to remember UK is a member of G7 and currently ranks 6th largest economy worldwide. There will be countries seeking FTA with UK, whether the T&C's end result will be better than the EU Open Marker arrangements is of course an open question, especially when taking into account the FTA with Japan.

[Hi from France]

Seems like the wants to start a multibillion-pound bail-out package for businesses hit from the 1st of January 

 

Quote

Cabinet ministers are drawing up a multibillion-pound bail-out package to bolster industries hardest hit by a no-deal Brexit, The Sunday Telegraph can disclose.

 

Quote

The proposals, compiled by Whitehall departments, include resilience deals for sheep farmers, fishermen, car manufacturers and chemical suppliers who face trade disruption or being hit with punishing EU tariffs after Jan 1.

 

Quote

Two sources involved in drawing up the plans say the package is expected to involve between £8 billion and £10 billion of funding

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/12/billions-no-deal-brexit-help-farmers-factories/

 

If this is the case things will get quite complicated as it seems to me a radical change to usual non-intervention policy of state in businesses. 

This is like anti-coronavirus measures, but to compensate a lasting situation. There will evidently be no vaccine against tariffs and things will not get back to normal, not to mention that the EU has more firepower and I think WTO rules allow to simply raise tariffs in such a situation. 

 

So, for me it does not seem to be a good idea, apart from damage limitation in the short term. 

 

What do you think? 

 

 

.

Edited December 12, 2020 by Hi from France

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, simple1 said:

 

Personally I am not a supporter of Brexit, but we have to remember UK is a member of G7 and currently ranks 6th largest economy worldwide. There will be countries seeking FTA with UK, whether the T&C's end result will be better than the EU Open Marker arrangements is of course an open question, especially when taking into account the FTA with Japan.

It's a virtually universal phenomenon that the single most import factor determining levels of foreign trade is proximity. In economics it's labeled "gravity".

Gravity theory - international trade theory | Economics Online | Economics Online

Gravity model of trade - Wikipedia

[simple1]

24 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's a virtually universal phenomenon that the single most import factor determining levels of foreign trade is proximity. In economics it's labeled "gravity".

Gravity theory - international trade theory | Economics Online | Economics Online

Gravity model of trade - Wikipedia

 

I would have though the above is blindingly obvious. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by simple1

[Laughing Gravy]

17 hours ago, NeoDinosaw said:

This showed that most of the UK electorate are morons.  How can anyone beleieve anything that Boris says ?

 

So you are being abusive about a democratic decision. I could easily say the same to those who stay in the EU but that's against forum rules and it would be a stupid sweeping statement.

[Hi from France]

29 minutes ago, simple1 said:

 

I would have though the above is blindingly obvious. 

not so obvious

should be D-squared ?

 

????

[Laughing Gravy]

2 hours ago, Hi from France said:

What do you think? 

As you are in France have a word with Macron.????

 

It seems he is the crux to a deal or sorry no the 27 shared views

 

Macron has his own problems and he will be toast in the next elections. The french sure do go through some leaders. I wonder why!

[RayC]

7 hours ago, simple1 said:

 

I would have though the above is blindingly obvious. 

Whether it is or not, 'no deal' Brexiters obviously haven't grasped the concept. 

[RayC]

7 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

The french sure do go through some leaders. I wonder why!

At least the French leaders usually serve their full terms.

 

Might be better to worry about leadership - or more accurately, the lack of it  - closer to home. The Tory party doesn't do so bad when it comes to discarding leaders. Here's hoping they keep up this tradition sooner rather than later.

[puipuitom]

On 12/12/2020 at 10:13 AM, Kwasaki said:

Another one who don't understand the English the cost will be enormous to both sides because the EU wouldn't let the UK just go. 

Just as having a mutual dinner in a restaurant: pay your fair share. And when you leave half way: pay also your share for what is already ordered and cannot be cancelled anymore.

[hotandsticky]

2 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Just as having a mutual dinner in a restaurant: pay your fair share. And when you leave half way: pay also your share for what is already ordered and cannot be cancelled anymore.

 

 

 

At least in a restaurant you get to take home a doggy bag !!

[puipuitom]

On 12/12/2020 at 11:28 AM, vinny41 said:

Can you provide  evidence that all Brexiteers hung on to every word that Farage stated  

as to anything said during the referendum campaign by both sides those statements were more aspirational statements as no negotiations had taken place 

Very Similar to Salmond saying that Scotland would retain the pound or that it could join the EU as an independent country without leaving and going through the standard  eu accession process for new members

IF the UK had remained would the EU have to commit to joining an EU army

would Turkey join the EU

would the UK lose its rebate in 2020

 

When all EU citizens can grow wings, do the British also have to accept ? ?

 

Why all these nonsense questions... An EU army... God help us... seen how fast the EU takes decisions, an attacker already has occupied the French Oversees Territories in the Caribbean and the Pacific before any action is taken. Happy the US taxpayer provide this to Europe.

[puipuitom]

On 12/12/2020 at 12:22 PM, Rookiescot said:

So Sturgeon is right. Brexit can be reversed. We just wont be doing it while part of the UK is all.

When the Scots decide to form a (con)federation with Eire, they can slip in the EU in a minute. Probably with Ulster in it too ( and who knows... Wales) . Same structure as the NVA wants for Belgium. 

[puipuitom]

21 hours ago, NeoDinosaw said:

He wasn't very good at English then.

He wrote in a language understood by many from Ieper till Helsinki and Kijiv.

 

As a London trader told me a 40 years ago:

when you know 2 languages, you are bi-lingual

When 3 languages, you are triple-lingual

When 4.. you are a genius

 

but only one.. you are British

[puipuitom]

21 hours ago, Hi from France said:

You know pragmatism, cold blood and the ability to evaluate a situation used to be British qualities.

 That was a long time ago.

 

Since the 19th century the British are very good in gun-boat diplomacy... China, India, Birma, Zanzibar, Fishing grounds around the Tiny Islands,   

see Gunboat diplomacy – General History (general-history.com)  and 'Gunboat diplomacy': UK plans to use Royal Navy to stop fishing boats branded 'irresponsible' | Euronews

[puipuitom]

21 hours ago, placeholder said:

Tell that to manufacturers who depend on supply chains and just in time delivery.

You think, they did not decide yet ?

or the supermarket organisations: risk of non-delivery = empty shop shelves, aside of "what our purchase price might be "? 

 

I was an retail buyer and an industry buyer since 1977... They switched already for their contracts, often 1 year or longer. That's why every manufacturer try to ship out as much as possible / customers, who store as much as is financially defendable. After that: the "diluge" = the Flood... whatever UK and EU might agree on.

[puipuitom]

It is NOT important to have a Free Trade Agreement with a country etc, but.. how much it brings in.

A FTA between Greenland and Iceland for bananas will not be so fruitful. 

And when a FTA with Japan or S-Korea means, they can compete better on the British market, I doubt this is of any use for the British (car makers + workers). 

[Loiner]

1 hour ago, puipuitom said:

 

And when a FTA with Japan or S-Korea means, they can compete better on the British market, I doubt this is of any use for the British (car makers + workers). 

The competition will be with the EU manufacturers. 

EU workers who used to enjoy free trade in the U.K. for their cars or other products, will now be subject to tariffs and sales will fall, all because their EU masters wanted to punish the UK.  

Japanese and Korean manufacturers products will become much more attractive to U.K. consumers. No use to the EU workers who lose jobs, but we won’t care. They could have had a proper deal and the EU blew it. 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Loiner said:

The competition will be with the EU manufacturers. 

EU workers who used to enjoy free trade in the U.K. for their cars or other products, will now be subject to tariffs and sales will fall, all because their EU masters wanted to punish the UK.  

Japanese and Korean manufacturers products will become much more attractive to U.K. consumers. No use to the EU workers who lose jobs, but we won’t care. They could have had a proper deal and the EU blew it. 

And all those workers in the UK who lose manufacturing jobs because of supply line slow-ups and tariffs won't be buying anyone's cars.

[Loiner]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And all those workers in the UK who lose manufacturing jobs because of supply line slow-ups and tariffs won't be buying anyone's cars.

Supply line slow up? If so, but not guaranteed, is one of the preparations manufacturing has to prepare for. If you haven’t already done that, you won’t be holding a place on the board anymore. 

[welovesundaysatspace]

34 minutes ago, Loiner said:

Japanese and Korean manufacturers products will become much more attractive to U.K. consumers. 

What are those products? A Hyundai instead of a Benz? Kimchi instead of Brie? Soju instead of red wine? Not sure if that’s how substitution works but I guess you’ve figured it all out. 

[Loiner]

32 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

What are those products? A Hyundai instead of a Benz? Kimchi instead of Brie? Soju instead of red wine? Not sure if that’s how substitution works but I guess you’ve figured it all out. 

Yes to all of those. You could have picked some things more similar to compare, but they’ll do. 

[sirineou]

I seem to remember , during the brexit campaign.

"EU needs us more than we need it, says Vote Leave "

" "Everybody agrees there would be a free trade deal with the European Union, they cannot afford not to have a free trade deal with us."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-35409274

 

What happened?? 

[welovesundaysatspace]

8 minutes ago, Loiner said:

You could have picked some things more similar to compare,

What‘s that? 
 

8 minutes ago, Loiner said:

but they’ll do. 

You think? 

[RayC]

16 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I seem to remember , during the brexit campaign.

"EU needs us more than we need it, says Vote Leave "

" "Everybody agrees there would be a free trade deal with the European Union, they cannot afford not to have a free trade deal with us."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-35409274

 

What happened?? 

 

The title of a 1994 film is the answer to that question (Clue: It starred Winona Ryder and Ethan Hawke)