Popular Post Patts Posted January 4, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 4, 2021 Primarily focusing on GBP Vs THB, how is the baht still gaining strength when considering that just prior to Brexit the exchange rate was 55 Baht to the pound. From Brexit to mid 2018 it hovered between 43-44 baht which was fully expected given the uncertainty during that period. Further news of a "No Deal" Brexit seemed to have caused the pound to collapse to a low of 36 baht in mid 2019 before GBP stablised between 38-40. What blows my mind is with all the negative news for Thailand during 2020 and the recent positives for the UK we have seen very little improvement in the exchange rate. Thailands negativity include: Unemployment growing by millions as the tourism sector has collapsed, an area that contributes between 15-20% of Thailands GDP. Huge reduction in the export of produce such as rice and coconuts, largely driven by the strong baht and cheaper availability from neighbouring countries Huge reduction in international investments in Thailand. Public turmoil and protests surrounding the military government and royal family Human rights issues in-regard to treatment of protestors under rule/law 112 Very slow decision making and purchasing of vaccines to combat Covid; as it stands Thailand will only have enough vaccines for one million people by the end of May and are only planning to vaccinate half the population by the end of 2021. Given that in the past few weeks the UK: Was the first country to approve a Covid Vaccine. Developed the most cost effective and easy to use Vaccine of any western country which was subsequently approved for use in the last week of December with a plan to vaccinate 2 million citizens per week by mid January and a total of 30 million (approx half the UK population) by the 4th April 2021. 59 Trade deals signed including highly proclaimed deal with the EU. From a trade deal perspective the UK is in a similar position to where it was pre 2016. Even taking into account the strength of the Baht over the past couple of years, I fully expected that if a trade deal was signed with the EU we would see GBP Vs THB to return to somewhere in the region of 47-48. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post sammieuk1 Posted January 4, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 4, 2021 Pure and simple sorcery with more than a hint of jiggery-pokery from rich connected people is my guess ???? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lacessit Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 It' not the baht is strong, the USD is weak. Baht is tied to the USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreverlomsak Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Lacessit said: It' not the baht is strong, the USD is weak. Baht is tied to the USD. If that's the case and the USD is weak against the GBP, then the Baht should be weak against GBP, but that's not the case Baht is gaining against GBP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patts Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Lacessit said: It' not the baht is strong, the USD is weak. Baht is tied to the USD. But that's what doesn't make sense, USD has been on the slide for sometime and is at it's lowest in over two years. The Baht has been gaining on the Dollar for the past 5 to 6 years. The Baht was the best performing currency in 2019 and one of the worst in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patts Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said: If that's the case and the USD is weak against the GBP, then the Baht should be weak against GBP, but that's not the case Baht is gaining against GBP. Exactly. GBP has gained about 10% on the Dollar in the past two years but is still down around 15% on where it was in 2016; however GBP is still down 25%-30% on the THB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidedog Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Money markets also move slowly much of the time. A trend begins which accelerates a position up or down. Just out of the holiday period and with eyes watching how it rolls out, and the markets largely shut until today, unsurprising to see little movement yet. I am not moving any money here right now. I hope to see a rate in coming months when I will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreverlomsak Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Patts said: Exactly. GBP has gained about 10% on the Dollar in the past two years but is still down around 15% on where it was in 2016; however GBP is still down 25%-30% on the THB Don't understand it either. How much would it need for USD to get from current rate to a high of say 15 years ago, about 20%. For GBP to get to the rate of 15 years ago we need 75%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Susco Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The Baht isn't strong. This is todays news on Yahoo finance, which has no business with Thai Baht Gold Roars Out of Blocks in 2021 as Real Yields, Dollar Decline https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-two-month-high-011319748.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patts Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Susco said: The Baht isn't strong. This is todays news on Yahoo finance, which has no business with Thai Baht Gold Roars Out of Blocks in 2021 as Real Yields, Dollar Decline https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-two-month-high-011319748.html The Baht isn't strong? Really? Look at Yahoo finance 5 year currency charts for GBP Vs THB and USD Vs THB than try saying it's not strong, it's one of the best performing currencies in Asia over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Susco Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Patts said: The Baht isn't strong? Really? Look at Yahoo finance 5 year currency charts for GBP Vs THB and USD Vs THB than try saying it's not strong, it's one of the best performing currencies in Asia over the past few years. No the USD and GBP are some of the weakest currencies in the world. Same same but different https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-two-month-high-011319748.html Bullion is also rallying as a gauge of the U.S. currency languishes at the lowest level since 2018 after sliding for three quarters. Edited January 4, 2021 by Susco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post onebir Posted January 4, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said: Thai people are selling their gold to face the crisis, and a part of this gold is exported (The quantity has more than doubled in less than 1 year) and the Thais gold exporters are paid in foreign devises. I think it's largely this (eg see this report). Thailand also has relatively high GDP/head for SE Asia (#4 after Singapore, Brunei & Malaysia) so there could be more savings around in the form of gold. (Do Malaysians like to save in gold as much as Thais? The ringitt has also strengthened by about 10% over the last year.) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Its pure gold reading the comments from so many thread after thread after thread who simply cannot grasp that apart from the US Dollar (which has a direct exchange rate with every worldwide currency) every other forex calculation is the number cruching of two currency pairings to get the bottom line Dollar/Baht could weaken out to 40 but if Sterling/Dollar was just $1 dead (instead of $1.36 today) Sterling Baht would still be 40 ! Movement in either pairing Sterling/Dollar or Dollar/Baht will effect the bottom line How can anyone live or holiday in foreign climes without knowing how interbank is calculated. Its mind boggling lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofthemountain Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 (edited) 40 minutes ago, onebir said: I think it's largely this (eg see this report). Thailand also has relatively high GDP/head for SE Asia (#4 after Singapore, Brunei & Malaysia) so there could be more savings around in the form of gold. (Do Malaysians like to save in gold as much as Thais? The ringitt has also strengthened by about 10% over the last year.) Also this interesting article on the same subject https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-28/thais-dipping-into-gold-savings-undermine-steps-to-rein-in-baht Anyway as i said on a financial view Thailand works like a big vacuum cleaner If Thailand was an area in the space, it would be a black hole Edited January 4, 2021 by kingofthemountain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FritsSikkink Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Patts said: Primarily focusing on GBP Vs THB, how is the baht still gaining strength when considering that just prior to Brexit the exchange rate was 55 Baht to the pound. From Brexit to mid 2018 it hovered between 43-44 baht which was fully expected given the uncertainty during that period. Further news of a "No Deal" Brexit seemed to have caused the pound to collapse to a low of 36 baht in mid 2019 before GBP stablised between 38-40. What blows my mind is with all the negative news for Thailand during 2020 and the recent positives for the UK we have seen very little improvement in the exchange rate. Thailands negativity include: Unemployment growing by millions as the tourism sector has collapsed, an area that contributes between 15-20% of Thailands GDP. Huge reduction in the export of produce such as rice and coconuts, largely driven by the strong baht and cheaper availability from neighbouring countries Huge reduction in international investments in Thailand. Public turmoil and protests surrounding the military government and royal family Human rights issues in-regard to treatment of protestors under rule/law 112 Very slow decision making and purchasing of vaccines to combat Covid; as it stands Thailand will only have enough vaccines for one million people by the end of May and are only planning to vaccinate half the population by the end of 2021. Given that in the past few weeks the UK: Was the first country to approve a Covid Vaccine. Developed the most cost effective and easy to use Vaccine of any western country which was subsequently approved for use in the last week of December with a plan to vaccinate 2 million citizens per week by mid January and a total of 30 million (approx half the UK population) by the 4th April 2021. 59 Trade deals signed including highly proclaimed deal with the EU. From a trade deal perspective the UK is in a similar position to where it was pre 2016. Even taking into account the strength of the Baht over the past couple of years, I fully expected that if a trade deal was signed with the EU we would see GBP Vs THB to return to somewhere in the region of 47-48. Thailands negativity include: Unemployment growing by millions as the tourism sector has collapsed, an area that contributes between 15-20% of Thailands GDP. Still a lot less than the UK Huge reduction in the export of produce such as rice and coconuts, largely driven by the strong baht and cheaper availability from neighbouring countries Still exporting more than importing Huge reduction in international investments in Thailand. Still getting a lot of investments Public turmoil and protests surrounding the military government and royal family UK has had that for decades Human rights issues in-regard to treatment of protestors under rule/law 112 Nothing to do with currency Very slow decision making and purchasing of vaccines to combat Covid; as it stands Thailand will only have enough vaccines for one million people by the end of May and are only planning to vaccinate half the population by the end of 2021. Way less infections and far better border control than the UK Given that in the past few weeks the UK: Was the first country to approve a Covid Vaccine. How may did you give the vaccine at this stage? Developed the most cost effective and easy to use Vaccine of any western country which was subsequently approved for use in the last week of December with a plan to vaccinate 2 million citizens per week by mid January and a total of 30 million (approx half the UK population) by the 4th April 2021. With a plan to vaccinate, that is nice 59 Trade deals signed including highly proclaimed deal with the EU. From a trade deal perspective the UK is in a similar position to where it was pre 2016. Deal with EU is only for trade and not for services which is 80% of the monetary value. Scotland a net supplier wants out of the union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FritsSikkink Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Lacessit said: It' not the baht is strong, the USD is weak. Baht is tied to the USD. Hasn't been for years already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FritsSikkink Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Susco said: The Baht isn't strong. It is compared to the USD, Pound, Euro, Singapore dollar, Aussie dollar, .....\ What don't you understand Susco? Edited January 4, 2021 by FritsSikkink 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said: Developed the most cost effective and easy to use Vaccine of any western country which was subsequently approved for use in the last week of December with a plan to vaccinate 2 million citizens per week by mid January and a total of 30 million (approx half the UK population) by the 4th April 2021. With a plan to vaccinate, that is nice Yes, I think we should let Thailand have the vaccine at cost only if they add 1 baht to the £ exchange rate for every million doses we give them ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Susco Posted January 4, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, RichardColeman said: Yes, I think we should let Thailand have the vaccine at cost only if they add 1 baht to the £ exchange rate for every million doses we give them ???? WE give them? What an honour to know that the CEO of AstraZeneca is a member of this forum 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pravda Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Susco said: The Baht isn't strong. This is todays news on Yahoo finance, which has no business with Thai Baht Gold Roars Out of Blocks in 2021 as Real Yields, Dollar Decline https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-two-month-high-011319748.html What a silly example. If you want to make yourself even more depressed put up a bitcoin chart. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Susco Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Pravda said: What a silly example. If you want to make yourself even more depressed put up a bitcoin chart. This topic is about the exchange rate of the Thai baht against other foreign currencies, not the digital currencies. But realizing that is probably above your pay grade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Pravda Posted January 4, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Susco said: This topic is about the exchange rate of the Thai baht against other foreign currencies, not the digital currencies. But realizing that is probably above your pay grade Sez a guy who puts up a gold chart. We have a Gordon Gekko here. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Susco Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Pravda said: Sez a guy who puts up a gold chart. We have a Gordon Gekko here. You must be colour blind, or is it just ignorant? as Real Yields, Dollar Decline https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-two-month-high-011319748.html Bullion is also rallying as a gauge of the U.S. currency languishes at the lowest level since 2018 after sliding for three quarters 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pravda Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Susco said: You must be colour blind, or is it just ignorant? as Real Yields, Dollar Decline https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-two-month-high-011319748.html Bullion is also rallying as a gauge of the U.S. currency languishes at the lowest level since 2018 after sliding for three quarters Thanks for posting links, that makes you super duper smart. I think I'll go to super rich and exchange my gold nuggets for baht. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patts Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Susco said: No the USD and GBP are some of the weakest currencies in the world. Same same but different https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-two-month-high-011319748.html Bullion is also rallying as a gauge of the U.S. currency languishes at the lowest level since 2018 after sliding for three quarters. I'm sorry but Gold rallying is absolutely nothing to do with the weak dollar, it's rallied from around $1200 in January to a peak of $2063 in August 2020 as it is a safe haven for investors in time of recession. The Dollar and GBP have been on the slide against THB for years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talahtnut Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The USDollar doesn't look too happy, and the £ is rapidly circling round the plughole, get yer Baht now before were all cashless on pisspot UBI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Susco Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Patts said: I'm sorry but Gold rallying is absolutely nothing to do with the weak dollar, it's rallied from around $1200 in January to a peak of $2063 in August 2020 as it is a safe haven for investors in time of recession. The Dollar and GBP have been on the slide against THB for years Now look what you wrote, read it slowly, maybe you can then comprehend. I hope you don't want to claim you are smarter than the guys at Bloomberg 6 minutes ago, Patts said: I'm sorry but Gold rallying is absolutely nothing to do with the weak dollar, 6 minutes ago, Patts said: it is a safe haven for investors in time of recession. Now which is the other safe haven for investors, and what they do if that one continues to decline? Answers on a postcard please Edited January 4, 2021 by Susco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2530Ubon Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Patts said: Even taking into account the strength of the Baht over the past couple of years, I fully expected that if a trade deal was signed with the EU we would see GBP Vs THB to return to somewhere in the region of 47-48. If I had a Baht for each time this question was asked this year, I might have enough to buy myself a beer or two. With regards to the 'trade deal' signed with the EU, the UK is a services based economy- around 80.6%GDP and the trade deal we signed with them doesn't cover services. So some might rightly conclude that the 'trade deal' was little more than moving goods around and getting a little bit of fish back. There's a reason all the banks have moved out of London - because they are service based and London is no longer the service center of Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pravda Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, Patts said: I'm sorry but Gold rallying is absolutely nothing to do with the weak dollar, it's rallied from around $1200 in January to a peak of $2063 in August 2020 as it is a safe haven for investors in time of recession. The Dollar and GBP have been on the slide against THB for years Don't get him triggered or he'll go scanning your other posts and bombing them with sad emoji reactions. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patts Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, Susco said: Now look what you wrote, read it slowly, maybe you can then comprehend. I hope you don't want to claim you are smarter than the guys at Bloomberg Now which is the other safe haven for investors, and what they do if that one continues to decline? Answers on a postcard please I'm not claiming to be smarter than anyone but I have been investing in NYSE and FTSE for the past few years so have an idea how it works. Gold will fluctuate with the dollar but the huge rally seen in 2020 where it rocketed from $1200 (ish) to $2000 is almost sorely due to fears from the economic fallout from Covid lockdowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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