Worst Excess Deaths in the UK Since WW2

[KhaoYai]

For almost a year I've been getting figures from Conspiracy Theory believers that appeared to show that there had not been any more deaths in the UK in 2020 than in other years - some even claimed there were fewer than average deaths.  They use these figures to claim that Covid 19 is a hoax. The sources given were sometimes 'official' looking and could possibly convince some. They often show figures that are official but omit to include the title which when traced often shows a different story - in that deaths for X reason or Y reason are not included.  They sometimes show wording from one section together with a graph from a totally different section. However, I was aware that the official figures giving the total deaths from all causes are not produced until early in the New Year - meaning any figures before that date are spurious per-se.

 

The provisional figures from the Office for National Statistics have just been released and show that 2020 was the worst year for total deaths since World War 2 (697,000).  The BBC showed a useful graph on TV - if I get time I will try to wade through the acres of data and post it. For most sane people, this will put paid to the Conspiracy Theorists claims - although I have absolutely no doubt that within days, a twisted version will appear.

 

News Story here:

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by KhaoYai

[RichardColeman]

10 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

For almost a year I've been getting figures from Conspiracy Theory believers that appeared to show that there had not been any more deaths in the UK in 2020 than in other years - some even claimed there were fewer than average deaths. 

Yes, and if you actually took the time to read the story, it quotes - "When the age and size of the population is taken into account 2020 saw the worst overall death rates since the mid 2000s."

 

So, bringing in WW2 and not taking in population growth into account is more scare mongering than anything else.

 

 

 

[KhaoYai]

43 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

So, bringing in WW2 and not taking in population growth into account is more scare mongering than anything else.

Eh?  I'm not scaremongering at all.  I am simply showing that the conspiracy theorists that claims there have been no more deaths than average are wrong.  I didn't 'bring in' WW2 - the BBC did. I suggest you ask them why their headine refers to WW2.

 

Whichever way you look at it, there have been far more deaths - Covid 19 is very real.

 

I note the graph I mentioned in my earlier post has now appeared in the link.

Edited January 12, 2021 by KhaoYai

[treetops]

What happened in the mid 2000s that made the death rate worse than last year?

[KhaoYai]

1 minute ago, treetops said:

What happened in the mid 2000s that made the death rate worse than last year?

It wasn't. There was an increase, don't know why - possibly flu but the graph clearly shows 2020 as being the highest - see the end point.

[JeffersLos]

8 minutes ago, treetops said:

What happened in the mid 2000s that made the death rate worse than last year?

 

Will Young. 

[treetops]

1 minute ago, KhaoYai said:

It wasn't. There was an increase, don't know why - possibly flu but the graph clearly shows 2020 as being the highest - see the end point.

 

Yes, the graph shows the raw figures, but the article says if you take into account population growth and age it was worse in the mid 2000s.  I can't think of anything that significant over multiple years from back then but would like to know what it was.

[KhaoYai]

2 minutes ago, treetops said:

 

Yes, the graph shows the raw figures, but the article says if you take into account population growth and age it was worse in the mid 2000s.  I can't think of anything that significant over multiple years from back then but would like to know what it was.

Ok, understand now.  I can't be sure but I seem to remember a large increase in flu related deaths not so long back - hence why we are all being encouraged to have our flu jabs now.

 

The reason will be given in the ONS figures but good luck with trying to find it.

Edited January 12, 2021 by KhaoYai

[Natai Beach]

The UK were not testing everyone during the early days for covid. Especially in elderly homes. 
 

81,000 is the current official figure, but when you take into account the unexplained excess deaths it shows that covid has probably killed over 100,000 in the UK.

[CG1 Blue]

10 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

The UK were not testing everyone during the early days for covid. Especially in elderly homes. 
 

81,000 is the current official figure, but when you take into account the unexplained excess deaths it shows that covid has probably killed over 100,000 in the UK.

Not really. When you consider the UK counts all deaths 28 days after a positive Covid test (even if the person fell off a ladder) we don't know the true number of actual Covid deaths. Also all those people who died from other causes because they didn't receive the care they needed will have added to the excess death rate. This is highlighted in the report linked by the OP. 

 

 

 

[KhaoYai]

4 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Not really. When you consider the UK counts all deaths 28 days after a positive Covid test (even if the person fell off a ladder) we don't know the true number of actual Covid deaths.

Hence the most reliable figure is excess deaths. The true figures will never be known but the + or - on average gives a good indication.

Edited January 12, 2021 by KhaoYai

[Histavia]

3 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

this will put paid to the Conspiracy Theorists claims -

This is unfortunately not true. It is impossible for fools to change their mind. It is the opposite of critical thinking and skepitcality. Once a conspiracy idea has been formulated, no logic, evidence or argument can change it

[tgw]

42 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Hence the most reliable figure is excess deaths. The true figures will never be known but the + or - on average gives a good indication.

 

Well, looking at the graph of deaths per 100.000 population, in your own link:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55631693

 

2020 deaths were comparatively MUCH lower than around the year 2000...

 

this is not to say that people don't die from covid, but it puts things into perspective, covid is not causing much deaths.

Edited January 12, 2021 by tgw

[Histavia]

46 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Not really. When you consider the UK counts all deaths 28 days after a positive Covid test (even if the person fell off a ladder) we don't know the true number of actual Covid deaths. Also all those people who died from other causes because they didn't receive the care they needed will have added to the excess death rate. This is highlighted in the report linked by the OP. 

 

 

 

THat's not actually right. The main way is by checking EXCESS deaths and for comparison deaths per 100k of population.furhermore UK has only just started mass testing. 

[treetops]

3 minutes ago, tgw said:

Well, looking at the graph of deaths per 100.000 population, in your own link:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55631693

 

2020 deaths were comparatively MUCH lower than around the year 2000...

 

That's another new graph that's been added to the article and shows death rates, not actual deaths.  I don't know what to make of it either.

[tgw]

3 minutes ago, treetops said:

That's another new graph that's been added to the article and shows death rates, not actual deaths.  I don't know what to make of it either.

 

well, I do know what to make of it - the current death rate is low.

together with the last 10 years, probably one of the lowest in UK history, that's what the graph says.

And "Nick Triggle" explains it below the article.

Edited January 12, 2021 by tgw

[KhaoYai]

1 hour ago, tgw said:

 

Well, looking at the graph of deaths per 100.000 population, in your own link:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55631693

 

2020 deaths were comparatively MUCH lower than around the year 2000...

 

this is not to say that people don't die from covid, but it puts things into perspective, covid is not causing much deaths.

Well firstly, neither of those graphs were in the article when I first read it.  But I think more importantly, let's say I spent the time to prove to you that there are more deaths, would you believe it?  I don't think so. People with views like yours wouldn't believe it in any circumstances.

 

Many of our hospitals are full - some are sending patients to other areas, others are putting recovering patients in hotels, our healthcare staff are totally exhausted. Some hospitals have even cancelled urgent cancer surgeries.

 

People like you who make such ridiculous claims should be made to go work on a covid ward for a day.

 

People talk about adjustments for age etc. well what about adjustments for advances in science?

Edited January 12, 2021 by KhaoYai

[sammieuk1]

Yes it's a disaster here unfortunately we don't have the great skill of the Thais to predict an end by January or keep death rates unbelievably low even with spending half a trillion £???? 

[tgw]

1 hour ago, KhaoYai said:

Well firstly, neither of those graphs were in the article when I first read it.  But I think more importantly, let's say I spent the time to prove to you that there are more deaths, would you believe it?  I don't think so. People with views like yours wouldn't believe it in any circumstances.

 

Many of our hospitals are full - some are sending patients to other areas, others are putting recovering patients in hotels, our healthcare staff are totally exhausted. Some hospitals have even cancelled urgent cancer surgeries.

 

People like you who make such ridiculous claims should be made to go work on a covid ward for a day.

 

People talk about adjustments for age etc. well what about adjustments for advances in science?

 

you are very mistaken and you addressing me by "people like you" is saying a lot.

I consider every proven fact to be a fact and accept it.

I like clear-cut arguments and mathematical demonstrations with as less approximations as possible.

I believe in data.

 

so as you offer to spend the time to prove that there are more deaths now, I gladly accept.

please prove that the 2020 mortality rate per 100000 population is higher than in the year 2000.

Edited January 12, 2021 by tgw

[Scott]

Conspiracy post and replies reported and removed.  

 

[KhaoYai]

3 hours ago, tgw said:

this is not to say that people don't die from covid, but it puts things into perspective, covid is not causing much deaths.

What are you trying to say? That the now 83,203 Covid 19 related in the UK are false?

[CG1 Blue]

3 hours ago, Histavia said:

THat's not actually right. The main way is by checking EXCESS deaths and for comparison deaths per 100k of population.furhermore UK has only just started mass testing. 

Excess deaths may be a combination of Covid deaths, deaths from other illnesses left untreated as a reaction to the pandemic, plus normal fluctuations in annual death rates (such as the high rates in the early 2000s). Probably an increase in suicides too. 

This is not Covid denial in any way. It's just looking beyond the click bait headlines. 

 

[KhaoYai]

1 hour ago, tgw said:

so as you offer to spend the time to prove that there are more deaths now, I gladly accept.

please prove that the 2020 mortality rate per 100000 population is higher than in the year 2000

I didn't offer to spend that time and I have no intention of doing so.  Based on your comment that Covid 19 is not causing as you say 'much deaths', I find it very difficult to believe that you accept facts or believe data.

[Histavia]

5 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

deaths from other illnesses left untreated as a reaction to the pandemic, plus normal fluctuations

OK - this is a rather naive approach to the figures. It isn't know what deaths are caused by lack of treatment - what do think that figure would be like in Thailand?? In the UK it is not considered to be statistically significant.

As for "fluctuations" - these are a normal factor in gathering statistics regardless of the year.

 

So in fact these are not likely to seriously impinge on the overall picture.

 

basically they are just the result of people looking round for something to support an erroneous and baseless conclusion they want to put forward.

 

[Histavia]

4 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

I didn't offer to spend that time and I have no intention of doing so.  Based on your comment that Covid 19 is not causing as you say 'much deaths', I find it very difficult to believe that you accept facts or believe data.

Te graph in question shows basically a long slow drop in the numbers - with a huge jump at the end - presumably due to Covid.

[Histavia]

I can't see why so many people want to make out that Covid is "not as bad as they say" - it clearly is. But what is the motivation of these people other than a conspiracy theory???

[CG1 Blue]

5 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

What are you trying to say? That the now 83,203 Covid 19 related in the UK are false?

I would have more faith in the 83,203 'Covid 19 related' deaths if they used a different way to measure Covid 19 deaths. Patients who recover from Covid 19 then die a couple of weeks later from something completely unrelated should not be counted as Covid 19 victims. 

 

[KhaoYai]

5 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Excess deaths may be a combination of Covid deaths, deaths from other illnesses left untreated as a reaction to the pandemic, plus normal fluctuations in annual death rates (such as the high rates in the early 2000s).

I think there is a limit to the validity of that claim. Its clear to me at least, that there were a great many more deaths in 2020 that could normally have been expected.  If the figures given are just a normal fluctuation, it would be a hell of a coincidence that they occured during a pandemic.

[CG1 Blue]

3 minutes ago, Histavia said:

I can't see why so many people want to make out that Covid is "not as bad as they say" - it clearly is. But what is the motivation of these people other than a conspiracy theory???

I acknowledge that Covid is bad, but I still question the numbers. That's not a conspiracy theory; it's thinking independently. 

[KhaoYai]

7 minutes ago, Histavia said:

Te graph in question shows basically a long slow drop in the numbers - with a huge jump at the end - presumably due to Covid.

My point from the beginning but as usual, people appear that try to find problems and dispute the facts. As of today, we have had a total of 83,203 deaths attributed to Covid 19 and I find that very real and very worrying.