The Scale of Covid Related Labor Migration

[Brierley]

According to phone data records from just one Thai mobile operator, about 2 million people moved from the tourist centers around Thailand, back to their hometowns between February and April last year.

 

“This is a rare opportunity for such a big migration of modern workers, who have knowledge and technology, to return to their hometowns,” Saovanee Chantapong of the Bank of Thailand’s Macroeconomics Department and Warit Tassanasunthornwong of Thammasart University wrote in a report published on the central bank’s website Tuesday. “They will be a key driving force to create value added for the agricultural sector, as well as develop agricultural and health tourism.”

 

"The return of younger people to rural areas may be an unexpected benefit of the pandemic for Thailand." “This is a rare opportunity for such a big migration of modern workers, who have knowledge and technology, to return to their hometowns,”

 

If all mobile phone companies records are considered, the scale of people migration is potentially 5 million or more, almost 10% of the population.  "That compares with average net labor migration of 600,000-800,000 people per year".

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-27/thailand-may-gain-from-virus-led-migration-central-bank-study

 

I thought this was interesting because it gives an idea of the impact and scale of things in human terms, upheaval etc. Also the impacts on the future of the tourist industry, which may take years to return to its former self. I think there is likely to be a large percentage of those people who will remain in agriculture and that will fundamentally shift labor away from one part of the economy, into another. 

 

 

 

[Damrongsak]

"“They will be a key driving force to create value added for the agricultural sector, as well as develop agricultural and health tourism.”

 

People with cell phones will drive value add for agriculture...  What are they going to do, call relatives and tell them the old farmer guy down the street is selling fruit really cheap?  What can they add besides a few Baht for a phone call?

 

[Brierley]

15 minutes ago, Damrongsak said:

"“They will be a key driving force to create value added for the agricultural sector, as well as develop agricultural and health tourism.”

 

People with cell phones will drive value add for agriculture...  What are they going to do, call relatives and tell them the old farmer guy down the street is selling fruit really cheap?  What can they add besides a few Baht for a phone call?

 

The reference to cell phones is SOLELY to confirm the scale of people migration, the phone companies tracked those movements and reported the scale.

 

The added value part is something very different, that's about rural people entering the tourist industry, learning new skills and then returning home to apply those skills.

 

My point however is the scale of the migration and the longer term benefit.

Edited April 28, 2021 by Brierley

[Boomer6969]

Two million? Five million? Two storeys farm land ?..

[Brierley]

3 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

Two million? Five million? Two storeys farm land ?..

Sorry, you'll have to say a few more words before I can understand your point.

 

If you're asking why the numbers went from 2 to 5 mill., that's because the article took only the mobile data from True, the second largest mobile operator. By the time you add in the remaining operators the numbers will at least double.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Brierley

[Kwasaki]

There was a pandemic so what would be so unusual about that. 

Songkran would show people movement as well. 

 

[mikebike]

4 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

There was a pandemic so what would be so unusual about that. 

Songkran would show people movement as well. 

 

The unusual part is not the seasonal migration. It is the potential that the returning, large, young, educated workforce will impact the decades-long rural brain-drain and spur a geographical dispersion of said young, educated workers.

[Kwasaki]

3 minutes ago, mikebike said:

The unusual part is not the seasonal migration. It is the potential that the returning, large, young, educated workforce will impact the decades-long rural brain-drain and spur a geographical dispersion of said young, educated workers.

What I don't understand is the young educated workforce in the tourism industry from tourist areas. 

[BritManToo]

6 hours ago, Brierley said:

“This is a rare opportunity for such a big migration of modern workers, who have knowledge and technology, to return to their hometowns,”

I'm not sure how loads of hookers with mobile phones, whom left school age 12 will be helping their hometowns.

Edited April 29, 2021 by BritManToo

[chilly07]

Maybe seeing air conditions on their mobiles will reduce burning. Weather forecasts helps especially sowing rice. Market prices times harvesting. Drones can be used to inspect crops.

Coops formed to increase mechanisation.

[Leaver]

On 4/29/2021 at 5:17 AM, Brierley said:

“They will be a key driving force to create value added for the agricultural sector, as well as develop agricultural and health tourism.”

 

Only if their farang sponsors keep sending money, otherwise, how much rice can Thailand grow?   ????