Thailand to receive 3.5 million more doses of Sinovac vaccine in May

[Bkktodd]

6 hours ago, Poet said:

Almost all analysts agree that there is massive pent-up demand. Thanks to unprecedented levels of money printing, most people in the West continued to receive money while furloughed. Many others continued to do their jobs from home. All spent far less money than usual as they were unable to go to bars, restaurants, non-essential shopping, vacations etc.

If you want an exact metric, check how levels of household debt (mostly credit cards) have been paid down over the past 400 days. When people clear their credit cards, it puts them in a good mood to ... use their credit cards!

I am not saying that everyone has prospered, and the money-printing will be a heavy burden on future generations, but plenty of people have plenty of money right now, and they are eager to blow some dough on exotic vacations.
 

So far, no mutation has emerged that renders the vaccines ineffective. I have read papers that explain why it is almost impossible for any mutation to achieve that. The reason why the Indian variant is being played up is that Western governments are extremely worried that, with the clear success of the vaccines so far, the public will prematurely drop their caution. The governments need to get their younger age groups vaccinated first.

This week, Israel, whose vaccine program had a two-month headstart and has made the Pfizer vaccine available to all adult age groups, has reached a rolling seven-day average of ten infections per million. This is low enough to be considered "zero Covid" by countries such as Singapore and South Korea. Many countries, such as Ireland, have already dropped the quarantine requirement for vaccinated Israelis. There is no scientific argument, for any country, against allowing entry to VVVs (verifiably vaccinated visitors) coming from a country with extremely low levels of infection.

The EU voted through their vaccine passport plan on Thursday, after agreeing reciprocal standards with the US. They will trial it this month and officially launch it throughout the EU on June 1st. National governments, under tremendous pressure from their citizens, will roll it out as quickly as possible. It is likely that, once again, the US and UK will be ahead of them.

By the start of July, most Western countries will be in roughly the same position as Israel, including having internationally recognized vaccine passports.
 

Tourists don't care.
 

If it is true that variants are going to rip apart the West's recovery, that Israel's success pressages, then it is pretty much game over for the world economy.

Again, however, there is no evidence that any variant of Covid-19 can render the effective vaccines (Sinovac not included in that category) ineffective and it is considered highly unlikely by credible scientists (the ones not on TikTok).

We clearly see the world very differently, but it is clear to me that mass tourism is about to bounce back hard during the second half of this year in the countries that decide to recognize vaccine passports and drop quarantine requirements.


 

Spot on about people itching to travel.  Im in the airline business and can tell you US domestic flights are full.  Read facebook travel pages and everyone is either going to island countries that iare allowing tourists or waiting for the pending EU opening for vaccinated arrivals.  Pre covid Thailand was the number one tourist destination.  

[Bkk Brian]

56 minutes ago, friendofthai said:

I have just successfully explained for you that there were no any "anti-western-vaccine" actions from the Chinese side. Just normal waiting during a normal workflow - nothing more.
But from the western side we see that authorities prevent their people from being vaccinated by Chinese vaccine.

To "successfully" explain it then you would need to provide a link with the quotes from officials to back up your explanation in full? Happy to wait on that.

[friendofthai]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

To "successfully" explain it then you would need to provide a link with the quotes from officials to back up your explanation in full? Happy to wait on that.

It is impossible to prove absence of anything. One can prove only presence of a thing by demonstrating it. And you have just failed to prove that "China initiated this behavior".

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, friendofthai said:

It is impossible to prove absence of anything. One can prove only presence of a thing by demonstrating it. And you have just failed to prove that "China initiated this behavior".

Ah ok, so your explanation is successful to you only, ok.

[placnx]

8 hours ago, rabas said:

 

One case of the vicious Brazilian P.1 variant has already been found in ASQ, reported on April  23, 2021. This is probably why they restored the 14 day quarantine. It was discovered on day 6.

 

I doubt Sinovac's effectiveness with P.1. 

 

That seems evident from the experience of Chile, though I forget whether they used Sinopharm or Sinovac, both inactivated SARS-2 vaccines. The question is what will happen when the Indian double-mutant (B.1.617) and the Peruvian sub-variant C.37 get here. How is AZ doing in India?

[placnx]

8 hours ago, Stormfish said:

People travelling on vaccine related passports will still have to be tested as they can be host to the virus.Letting them in would be catastrophic.

It would be sensible to find out where arrivals have been in the previous 14 days. If from India and similarly affected, entry should be discouraged.

[placnx]

8 hours ago, Poet said:

Almost all analysts agree that there is massive pent-up demand. Thanks to unprecedented levels of money printing, most people in the West continued to receive money while furloughed. Many others continued to do their jobs from home. All spent far less money than usual as they were unable to go to bars, restaurants, non-essential shopping, vacations etc.

If you want an exact metric, check how levels of household debt (mostly credit cards) have been paid down over the past 400 days. When people clear their credit cards, it puts them in a good mood to ... use their credit cards!

I am not saying that everyone has prospered, and the money-printing will be a heavy burden on future generations, but plenty of people have plenty of money right now, and they are eager to blow some dough on exotic vacations.
 

So far, no mutation has emerged that renders the vaccines ineffective. I have read papers that explain why it is almost impossible for any mutation to achieve that. The reason why the Indian variant is being played up is that Western governments are extremely worried that, with the clear success of the vaccines so far, the public will prematurely drop their caution. The governments need to get their younger age groups vaccinated first.

This week, Israel, whose vaccine program had a two-month headstart and has made the Pfizer vaccine available to all adult age groups, has reached a rolling seven-day average of ten infections per million. This is low enough to be considered "zero Covid" by countries such as Singapore and South Korea. Many countries, such as Ireland, have already dropped the quarantine requirement for vaccinated Israelis. There is no scientific argument, for any country, against allowing entry to VVVs (verifiably vaccinated visitors) coming from a country with extremely low levels of infection.

The EU voted through their vaccine passport plan on Thursday, after agreeing reciprocal standards with the US. They will trial it this month and officially launch it throughout the EU on June 1st. National governments, under tremendous pressure from their citizens, will roll it out as quickly as possible. It is likely that, once again, the US and UK will be ahead of them.

By the start of July, most Western countries will be in roughly the same position as Israel, including having internationally recognized vaccine passports.
 

Tourists don't care.
 

If it is true that variants are going to rip apart the West's recovery, that Israel's success pressages, then it is pretty much game over for the world economy.

Again, however, there is no evidence that any variant of Covid-19 can render the effective vaccines (Sinovac not included in that category) ineffective and it is considered highly unlikely by credible scientists (the ones not on TikTok).

We clearly see the world very differently, but it is clear to me that mass tourism is about to bounce back hard during the second half of this year in the countries that decide to recognize vaccine passports and drop quarantine requirements.


 

Regarding vaccine passports, the devil is in the details. Are any details available regarding the EU version? The US so far is equivocating over vaccine passports. Looks like a "train wreck". Not all EU countries are using nice vaccines, so how will that be handled? Quarantine for those with dodgy credentials?

[mlmcleod]

12 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand has yet to start its mass vaccination drive but has been administering the 2.5 million doses of the Sinovac vaccine it has received so far mainly to health workers or people deemed at risk of exposure.

I presume that the Bangkok Hiso's and just about everyone wearing an officers uniform makes up most of those deemed at risk of exposure.

[placnx]

10 hours ago, gearbox said:

 

Sinovac is the only vaccine which has some real world data about effectiveness agains P.1 :

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/04/chinese-covid-19-vaccine-maintains-protection-variant-plagued-brazil

 

None of the other vaccines have real world data against P.1 , only "lab" studies. Probably expected, as P.1 is still mostly in Brazil.

Your link is not a peer-reviewed article, just a description of a pre-publication. I felt that there was something odd when I read, discussing results after first dose: "The vaccine’s protection may be even better after the second dose, he adds, noting the study is ongoing." Here they are claiming 50% protection after first dose, while Chile found 16% protection after studying 10mn vaccinated people! 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-dose-of-chinese-covid-19-vaccine-offers-little-protection-chile-learns-11618775502

The Science are contains comments from Feigl-Ding, which seem in imply that the trial design had defects which mean that protection from P.1 is not established.

[placnx]

10 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Oh dear, not good news for those expats here if they want to travel home to Europe and have been given Sinovac

 

"But at the moment, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) is not considering approving any Chinese-made jabs, suggesting that Europe’s vaccine passport system may leave out Chinese tourists and other travelers who have been vaccinated with the five China-made COVID-19 vaccines currently in use across the globe."

Maybe Sinovac et al should submit their data like those who got approval!

[placnx]

7 hours ago, friendofthai said:

It is not as simple as you think. Approving vaccine means testing it with the strains of virus that is present in China. That costs hundreds of millions of dollars of course. Such an expensive thing cannot be done just to bring more immigrants to the country. They can perform testing only if they benefit from it. And they benefit from it only if they know for sure that the western countries will sell it in China. As far as I know the Western countries don't want to sell the vaccine in China. So it makes no sense for the Chinese to approve any western vaccine.

Actually, testing isn't that expensive and doesn't have to be done in the country doing approval. So what are these Chinese strains? Unless there is vast coverup going on, they don't seem likely to be a challenge to Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, or AZ vaccines. Anyway, for the moment, there is insufficient supply of these vaccines, so China would have to wait. 

[placnx]

7 hours ago, gearbox said:

The Chinese are about to approve the Biontech vaccine manufactured by Fosun, so maybe everyone vaccinated with the "Pfizer" branded Biontech vaccine may be able to enter.

BionTech and Pfizer are partners. The Fosun deal was only announced March 16th, so who know when actual production could occur, if ever. Does the German government have a say?

https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-and-fosun-pharma-form-covid-19-vaccine-strategic

[placnx]

6 hours ago, friendofthai said:

I have just successfully explained for you that there were no any "anti-western-vaccine" actions from the Chinese side. Just normal waiting during a normal workflow - nothing more.
But from the western side we see that authorities prevent their people from being vaccinated by Chinese vaccine.

If China wants foreign approval Boss Xi should order those vaccine companies to hand over the data!

[gearbox]

10 minutes ago, placnx said:

BionTech and Pfizer are partners. The Fosun deal was only announced March 16th, so who know when actual production could occur, if ever. Does the German government have a say?

https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-and-fosun-pharma-form-covid-19-vaccine-strategic

 

That's March 16th 2020....

 

Why the German government needs to have a say? This is a deal between two private companies. Fosun is following the Chinese approval protocols and is expected to get an approval soon.

[placnx]

2 minutes ago, gearbox said:

 

That's March 16th 2020....

 

Why the German government needs to have a say? This is a deal between two private companies. Fosun is following the Chinese approval protocols and is expected to get an approval soon.

Sorry, I'm getting beady-eyed staying too long at this screen. Missed the 2020 date.

 

Technology transfer! Germany used to be lax, but they've upped their game. Still, they are nervous about annoying China.

[gearbox]

1 minute ago, placnx said:

Sorry, I'm getting beady-eyed staying too long at this screen. Missed the 2020 date.

 

Technology transfer! Germany used to be lax, but they've upped their game. Still, they are nervous about annoying China.

It is a good move by Biontech to make some money. The Chinese have now their own mRNA vaccine entering phase 3 trials,  so Biontech can make some money before they ramp up production.

 

The Moderna CEO said that early 2022 there may be surplus of vaccines, which means probably the prices are going to go down...ka-ching now!

[gearbox]

40 minutes ago, placnx said:

Maybe Sinovac et al should submit their data like those who got approval!

 

EU looks fully supplied already..it is way more important for Sinovac to gain WHO approval,  which may come in within two weeks. Remember this is a private company, they are not out there to provide charity services.  WHO via COVAX may order way more vaccines than EU.  Sinovac is listed in the US, would be interesting how this vaccine business reflects on their profitability.

[Tonypandy]

12 hours ago, Poet said:

Almost all analysts agree that there is massive pent-up demand. Thanks to unprecedented levels of money printing, most people in the West continued to receive money while furloughed. Many others continued to do their jobs from home. All spent far less money than usual as they were unable to go to bars, restaurants, non-essential shopping, vacations etc.

If you want an exact metric, check how levels of household debt (mostly credit cards) have been paid down over the past 400 days. When people clear their credit cards, it puts them in a good mood to ... use their credit cards!

I am not saying that everyone has prospered, and the money-printing will be a heavy burden on future generations, but plenty of people have plenty of money right now, and they are eager to blow some dough on exotic vacations.
 

So far, no mutation has emerged that renders the vaccines ineffective. I have read papers that explain why it is almost impossible for any mutation to achieve that. The reason why the Indian variant is being played up is that Western governments are extremely worried that, with the clear success of the vaccines so far, the public will prematurely drop their caution. The governments need to get their younger age groups vaccinated first.

This week, Israel, whose vaccine program had a two-month headstart and has made the Pfizer vaccine available to all adult age groups, has reached a rolling seven-day average of ten infections per million. This is low enough to be considered "zero Covid" by countries such as Singapore and South Korea. Many countries, such as Ireland, have already dropped the quarantine requirement for vaccinated Israelis. There is no scientific argument, for any country, against allowing entry to VVVs (verifiably vaccinated visitors) coming from a country with extremely low levels of infection.

The EU voted through their vaccine passport plan on Thursday, after agreeing reciprocal standards with the US. They will trial it this month and officially launch it throughout the EU on June 1st. National governments, under tremendous pressure from their citizens, will roll it out as quickly as possible. It is likely that, once again, the US and UK will be ahead of them.

By the start of July, most Western countries will be in roughly the same position as Israel, including having internationally recognized vaccine passports.
 

Tourists don't care.
 

If it is true that variants are going to rip apart the West's recovery, that Israel's success pressages, then it is pretty much game over for the world economy.

Again, however, there is no evidence that any variant of Covid-19 can render the effective vaccines (Sinovac not included in that category) ineffective and it is considered highly unlikely by credible scientists (the ones not on TikTok).

We clearly see the world very differently, but it is clear to me that mass tourism is about to bounce back hard during the second half of this year in the countries that decide to recognize vaccine passports and drop quarantine requirements.


 

Well said 

[fgmr]

14 hours ago, mahjongguy said:

There is a lot of science that needs to be understood before paying any attention at all to the click-bait headlines. 

 

Even just this little bit makes the situation a lot clearer:

" The Sinovac study was to look at how the vaccine works against the entire range of clinical symptoms, from mild infections to severe ones, including death. The efficacy data of about 50% is for very mild disease, requiring no treatment. For infections requiring some medical intervention, it’s about 84% and for moderate-to-severe Covid cases, it’s 100%."

What is the source for the data that mahjongguy  has posted?

 

[mahjongguy]

The source was Bloomberg News.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-13/are-china-s-covid-shots-less-effective-experts-size-up-sinovac

[Poet]

18 hours ago, placnx said:

Regarding vaccine passports, the devil is in the details. Are any details available regarding the EU version? The US so far is equivocating over vaccine passports. Looks like a "train wreck". Not all EU countries are using nice vaccines, so how will that be handled? Quarantine for those with dodgy credentials?

All the main countries are moving swiftly and collaborating on agreed standards. There is no train wreck, just the usual controversy in UK newspapers and almost nowhere else. The hubhub stems from a hope, on the part of those who were planning to skip vaccination, that they would still be able to travel anywhere they want. That was never going to be a possibility and every government, knowing that, has been quietly readying their systems for roll-out this summer.

The tech is fairly straightforward. Each national government will verify, from their own records, who has received what vaccine and on which dates. They already have this information. The "vaccination passport" is just a barcode - presented via a card, sticker, or phone app - that will allow authorized persons (immigration officials, airline staff, consulate staff etc) to see those details appear on the official online portal, making forgery all but impossible.

For example, a Thai Immigration Officer will scan the barcode and compare the details on your passport with the webpage that appears on his screen. He will see that you have had both shots of Pfizer, or whatever, within the past year. That is all there is to it.

It will be up to each country to decide which vaccines they believe are acceptable, and how long each provides acceptable protection. Airlines will have their own requirements too. For commercial and diplomatic reasons, expect all currently available vaccines to be considered acceptable, even the Chinese ones, and one innoculation will probably cover you for two years.

By this time next year, the pharma companies will probably be pushing a combined flu and Covid vaccine that they will recommend you take every year. Your online record will be updated accordingly.

 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Poet

[placnx]

5 hours ago, Poet said:

All the main countries are moving swiftly and collaborating on agreed standards. There is no train wreck, just the usual controversy in UK newspapers and almost nowhere else. The hubhub stems from a hope, on the part of those who were planning to skip vaccination, that they would still be able to travel anywhere they want. That was never going to be a possibility and every government, knowing that, has been quietly readying their systems for roll-out this summer.

The tech is fairly straightforward. Each national government will verify, from their own records, who has received what vaccine and on which dates. They already have this information. The "vaccination passport" is just a barcode - presented via a card, sticker, or phone app - that will allow authorized persons (immigration officials, airline staff, consulate staff etc) to see those details appear on the official online portal, making forgery all but impossible.

For example, a Thai Immigration Officer will scan the barcode and compare the details on your passport with the webpage that appears on his screen. He will see that you have had both shots of Pfizer, or whatever, within the past year. That is all there is to it.

It will be up to each country to decide which vaccines they believe are acceptable, and how long each provides acceptable protection. Airlines will have their own requirements too. For commercial and diplomatic reasons, expect all currently available vaccines to be considered acceptable, even the Chinese ones, and one innoculation will probably cover you for two years.

By this time next year, the pharma companies will probably be pushing a combined flu and Covid vaccine that they will recommend you take every year. Your online record will be updated accordingly.

 

This sounds good, but will countries outside the EU adopt a reciprocal solution? The US is a mess, since there is no national registry accessible to apps, and the CDC vaccination card is not the only card being used by local authorities. It's ripe for fraud:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/18/scams-coronavirus-vaccination-cards/

This is due to some risk-averse Biden people not wanting to get into an argument with libertarians about having a national database for verifying vaccinations. 

 

I doubt that the US will let people vaccinated with Sinovac, Sputnik, etc, enter unless they do quarantine. Will the airlines let these people board? Of course, if those vaccines were properly vetted, the picture might change.

 

I'm very interested in vaccine passports, so if you have detailed info on the EU vaccine passport or the digital WHO card project sponsored by Estonia, please let me know.

[mommysboy]

On 5/1/2021 at 1:59 PM, Bkktodd said:

I can assure you that these “vigorous side effects “ of taking those particular vaccines are generally  false. Vigorous side effects of having covid 19  should scare you more. In the USA many of us have been vaccinated with Moderna and Pfizer ( mine) and a sore arm at the jab site for a day or slightly sick similiar to the flu shot is far from vigorous side effects. At my work very little is said about side effects  much more is being said about being happy they got jabbed 

 

No. I wouldn't have written this if I was not sure. I've spoken to around 30 people I'd guess. Vigorous side effects have definitely happened in 4 of those people- one each Moderna, Pfizer, and 2 Astrazeneca..  By this I mean a quite horrible flu like illness which left 2 of them unable to walk the pain was so bad in their head and legs (Moderna and Pfizer).  I work with doctors, health professionals, and my friends are not the sort to exaggerate.  No doubt about it in my view.   Certainly, I don't recall people taking sick days off for the flu jab.  Yes for the majority it's milder.  

[Trvlr55]

On 4/30/2021 at 8:47 PM, Stormfish said:

People travelling on vaccine related passports will still have to be tested as they can be host to the virus.Letting them in would be catastrophic.

I have not seen any real proof this is a real thing. more media speculation and hype.    If you have the vaccine and wait until it's completely effective, i.e. 14 days after the 2nd shot, you can't really be carrying around the virus infecting others, which being covered yourself.  100% of all media reports so far, are from so called "studies" done 2 or 3 days after the 1st shot, and of course patients start out at 0 percent immunity, in all cases. These people had Covid before they had the shots. In most countries, do not know about Thailand, but there is zero testing done to see if you currently have Covid, when you showup to get the vaccine shot(s), or before for that matter.

[AgentSmith]

On 5/1/2021 at 2:10 PM, Bkktodd said:

Spot on about people itching to travel.  Im in the airline business and can tell you US domestic flights are full.  Read facebook travel pages and everyone is either going to island countries that iare allowing tourists or waiting for the pending EU opening for vaccinated arrivals.  Pre covid Thailand was the number one tourist destination.  

Yeah I also don't buy all that doomsday talk. Westerners are sitting on ever thicker savings accounts because they can't spend their money on traveling as they are used to. And then there are huge stacks of travel vouchers still waiting to be used. Many western countries are barely hit by this medical crisis. The industries that are bleeding aren't a huge part of the total economy over there. Tourists forget fast and as soon as borders open up and people are vaccinated planes will be full again as if nothing ever happened. Covid will be here to stay but in marginal numbers, at least for the time being.

 

What worries me much more is the large numbers of people who won't receive a vaccination within a year or two. Poor countries will be a perfect host for this virus and who knows what kinds of mutations this will cause. The WHO needs to address this with the developed world as quickly as possible. We only win this war when we get the vast majority in every corner of the world vaccinated.